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NFL Week 4 VolumeThe public went 10–5 in Week 4 so far, with $428.06M traded

Prediction market traders have put $428.06M on NFL Week 4's games since the markets opened: $233.11M on who wins, $43.39M on player props and the rest on spreads, totals and quarters. The most is on Steelers at Browns ($61.07M). In 4 games most of the money is on the team the odds say will lose, led by the Falcons: 75% of the money at 47% odds.

By Data observed
Live
Traded on Week 4 games
$428.06M
+$55.89M last 24h6,068,498 trades16 games
What’s being traded
Winner $233.11MSpread $76.83MTotal $44.06MQuarters & halves $4.24MPlayer props $43.39MOther $26.43M
By exchangeCompare →
  • Kalshi$326.28M76%
  • Polymarket US$44.87M10%
  • Polymarket$56.91M13%
Money by day
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
$242.31MSun
Mon
$41.99MTue
Every game, by money tradedTraded
PITCLE$61.07MDETCAR$57.76MATLNO$57.15MKCLV$43.85MINDWAS$30.85MDENSF$23.23MNEBUF$22.27MDALHOU$21.93MLARPHI$21.70MLACSEA$15.99MMIAMIN$14.95MJACCIN$14.15MARINYG$12.15MGBTB$10.88MTENBAL$10.47MNYJCHI$9.66M
Bar: each team’s share of the moneyTick: the odds
Most traded game
$61.07M
Steelers at Browns
The public’s record
10–5
Games the money’s pick won, so far
Biggest trade
$762K
Browns at 98¢ on Kalshi
Player props
$43.39M
Most on Bijan Robinson, $1.79M
The public’s picks

Who the money says wins each Week 4 game

The bar splits each game’s money by the team buyers took; the black tick marks the odds. A bar that runs past the tick means traders like that team more than the market does.

Thursday Night Football
SteelersPittsburgh
at
BrownsCleveland
Share of the money before kickoff$61.07M
Odds at open: Steelers 63%, Browns 37%
Public lost66% of the money was on the Steelers (63% at open); they lost 24–27.
Where the money went
Winner
$36.65M
Spread
$8.67M
Total
$4.80M
Quarters
$616K
Props
$5.55M
Other
$4.78M
Kalshi
$51.47M84%
Poly US
$5.15M8%
Polymarket
$4.44M7%
269 whale trades · $8.62M
Final 24–27
Sunday morning, London
ColtsIndianapolis
at
CommandersWashington
Share of the money before kickoff$30.85M
Odds at open: Colts 64%, Commanders 36%
Public won73% of the money was on the Colts (64% at open); they won 30–13.
Where the money went
Winner
$13.28M
Spread
$7.08M
Total
$5.56M
Quarters
$332K
Props
$2.86M
Other
$1.74M
Kalshi
$19.85M64%
Poly US
$4.69M15%
Polymarket
$6.31M20%
123 whale trades · $3.59M
Final 30–13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
CardinalsArizona
at
GiantsNew York
Share of the money before kickoff$12.15M
Odds at open: Cardinals 55%, Giants 45%
Public lost68% of the money was on the Cardinals (55% at open); they lost 24–36.
Where the money went
Winner
$6.82M
Spread
$2.35M
Total
$1.14M
Props
$1.24M
Other
$532K
Kalshi
$7.99M66%
Poly US
$1.01M8%
Polymarket
$3.15M26%
76 whale trades · $2.09M
Final 24–36
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
CowboysDallas
at
TexansHouston
Share of the money before kickoff$21.93M
Odds at open: Cowboys 49%, Texans 51%
Public won75% of the money was on the Cowboys (49% at open); they won 34–30.
Where the money went
Winner
$14.35M
Spread
$3.11M
Total
$1.77M
Props
$1.54M
Other
$1.05M
Kalshi
$16.45M75%
Poly US
$1.97M9%
Polymarket
$3.51M16%
116 whale trades · $2.77M
Final 34–30HOU −2.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
PackersGreen Bay
at
BuccaneersTampa Bay
Share of the money before kickoff$10.88M
Odds at open: Packers 60%, Buccaneers 40%
Public won66% of the money was on the Packers (60% at open); they won 17–14.
Where the money went
Winner
$4.63M
Spread
$2.92M
Total
$1.42M
Props
$1.27M
Other
$559K
Kalshi
$7.99M73%
Poly US
$962K9%
Polymarket
$1.94M18%
37 whale trades · $756K
Final 17–14GB −8.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
JaguarsJacksonville
at
BengalsCincinnati
Share of the money before kickoff$14.15M
Odds at open: Jaguars 51%, Bengals 49%
Public lost65% of the money was on the Bengals (50% at open); they lost 17–22.
Where the money went
Winner
$7.31M
Spread
$2.73M
Total
$1.63M
Props
$1.73M
Other
$668K
Kalshi
$11.56M82%
Polymarket
$2.60M18%
78 whale trades · $1.69M
Final 22–17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
RamsLos Angeles
at
EaglesPhiladelphia
Share of the money before kickoff$21.70M
Odds at open: Rams 46%, Eagles 54%
Public won70% of the money was on the Rams (46% at open); they won 24–20.
Where the money went
Winner
$12.28M
Spread
$4.43M
Total
$1.52M
Quarters
$228K
Props
$2.30M
Other
$935K
Kalshi
$15.98M74%
Poly US
$2.20M10%
Polymarket
$3.52M16%
109 whale trades · $3.15M
Final 24–20PHI −7.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
PatriotsNew England
at
BillsBuffalo
Share of the money before kickoff$22.27M
Odds at open: Patriots 32%, Bills 68%
Public lost79% of the money was on the Bills (68% at open); they lost 26–29.
Where the money went
Winner
$12.42M
Spread
$4.60M
Total
$2.29M
Props
$1.59M
Other
$1.21M
Kalshi
$16.05M72%
Poly US
$2.90M13%
Polymarket
$3.32M15%
98 whale trades · $2.87M
Final 29–26BUF −1.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
JetsNew York
at
BearsChicago
Share of the money before kickoff$9.66M
Odds at open: Jets 42%, Bears 58%
Public won62% of the money was on the Bears (58% at open); they won 23–12.
Where the money went
Winner
$3.39M
Spread
$2.71M
Total
$1.37M
Quarters
$96.6K
Props
$1.46M
Other
$630K
Kalshi
$7.62M79%
Poly US
$493K5%
Polymarket
$1.54M16%
40 whale trades · $927K
Final 12–23
Sunday, late afternoon
DolphinsMiami
at
VikingsMinnesota
Share of the money before kickoff$14.95M
Odds at open: Dolphins 34%, Vikings 66%
Public won63% of the money was on the Vikings (66% at open); they won 15–10.
Where the money went
Winner
$6.16M
Spread
$4.18M
Total
$1.58M
Props
$1.75M
Other
$1.18M
Kalshi
$11.73M78%
Poly US
$805K5%
Polymarket
$2.42M16%
51 whale trades · $1.69M
Final 10–15
Sunday, late afternoon
TitansTennessee
at
RavensBaltimore
Share of the money before kickoff$10.47M
Odds at open: Titans 28%, Ravens 72%
Public won89% of the money was on the Ravens (73% at open); they won 24–18.
Where the money went
Winner
$4.26M
Spread
$2.05M
Total
$1.61M
Props
$1.71M
Other
$762K
Kalshi
$8.96M86%
Poly US
$212K2%
Polymarket
$1.29M12%
56 whale trades · $1.76M
Final 18–24
Sunday, late afternoon
BroncosDenver
at
49ersSan Francisco
Share of the money before kickoff$23.23M
Odds at open: Broncos 35%, 49ers 65%
Public won63% of the money was on the 49ers (65% at open); they won 24–14.
Where the money went
Winner
$12.65M
Spread
$4.99M
Total
$1.88M
Quarters
$353K
Props
$2.01M
Other
$1.34M
Kalshi
$16.85M73%
Poly US
$1.39M6%
Polymarket
$4.99M21%
129 whale trades · $4.43M
Final 14–24
Sunday, late afternoon
ChiefsKansas City
at
RaidersLas Vegas
Share of the money before kickoff$43.85M
Odds at open: Chiefs 64%, Raiders 36%
Public won56% of the money was on the Chiefs (64% at open); they won 30–27.
Where the money went
Winner
$30.47M
Spread
$5.21M
Total
$3.34M
Props
$2.85M
Other
$1.63M
Kalshi
$32.69M75%
Poly US
$7.18M16%
Polymarket
$3.98M9%
257 whale trades · $5.40M
Final 30–27
Sunday, late afternoon
ChargersLos Angeles
at
SeahawksSeattle
Share of the money before kickoff$15.99M
Odds at open: Chargers 32%, Seahawks 68%
Public won51% of the money was on the Seahawks (69% at open); they won 30–23.
Where the money went
Winner
$7.61M
Spread
$3.75M
Total
$1.81M
Props
$1.77M
Other
$915K
Kalshi
$13.51M84%
Poly US
$651K4%
Polymarket
$1.84M11%
124 whale trades · $2.96M
Final 23–30
Sunday Night Football
LionsDetroit
at
PanthersCarolina
Share of the money before kickoff$57.76M
Odds at open: Lions 53%, Panthers 47%
Public lost69% of the money was on the Lions (53% at open); they lost 26–32.
Where the money went
Winner
$32.77M
Spread
$8.57M
Total
$6.53M
Quarters
$734K
Props
$4.94M
Other
$4.22M
Kalshi
$46.29M80%
Poly US
$4.99M9%
Polymarket
$6.47M11%
312 whale trades · $8.55M
Final 26–32 · O/U 62.5
Monday Night Football
FalconsAtlanta
at
SaintsNew Orleans
Share of the money$57.15M
Odds now: Falcons 47%, Saints 53%
Underdog money75% of the money is on the Falcons, a 47% underdog.
Where the money is going
Winner
$28.05M
Spread
$9.51M
Total
$5.80M
Quarters
$712K
Props
$8.81M
Other
$4.27M
Kalshi
$41.29M72%
Poly US
$10.26M18%
Polymarket
$5.60M10%
221 whale trades · $7.42M
Mon 8:15 PM ETNO −1.5 · O/U 47.5
By exchange

Where Week 4 was traded

Kalshi handled 76% of the money traded on Week 4. The average trade was biggest on Polymarket ($553) and smallest on Polymarket US ($52). Player props are 13% of Kalshi’s money.

Kalshi

76% of the week
$326.28M
Trades
5,099,415
Avg. trade
$64
Last 24h
$40.42M
Winner
$167.53M51%
Spread
$53.16M16%
Total
$33.24M10%
Quarters & halves
$4.20M1%
Player props
$41.73M13%
Other
$26.43M8%
Most tradedSteelers at Browns$51.47M

Polymarket US

10% of the week
$44.87M
Trades
866,151
Avg. trade
$52
Last 24h
$10.14M
Winner
$33.62M75%
Spread
$7.23M16%
Total
$2.31M5%
Player props
$1.66M4%
Most tradedFalcons at Saints$10.26M

Polymarket

13% of the week
$56.91M
Trades
102,932
Avg. trade
$553
Last 24h
$5.33M
Winner
$31.95M56%
Spread
$16.44M29%
Total
$8.52M15%
Most tradedLions at Panthers$6.47M
Whale watch

Biggest Week 4 trades

The largest single trades on a winner.

  1. Browns at 98¢Steelers at Browns · Kalshi · Thu 11:42 PM
    $762Kpays $778K
  2. Browns at 98¢Steelers at Browns · Kalshi · Thu 11:41 PM
    $725Kpays $739K
  3. Falcons at 90¢Falcons at Saints · Kalshi · Mon 10:27 PM
    $450Kpays $500K
  4. Falcons at 90¢Falcons at Saints · Kalshi · Mon 10:27 PM
    $450Kpays $500K
  5. Browns at 98¢Steelers at Browns · Kalshi · Thu 11:42 PM
    $403Kpays $412K
  6. Browns at 98¢Steelers at Browns · Kalshi · Thu 11:39 PM
    $392Kpays $400K
On the move

Biggest line moves

Kalshi’s price, since the market opened.

No game has moved since its market opened.

Player props

Most-traded players

Dollars traded across each player’s props.

  1. Bijan Robinson44 markets · Falcons at Saints
    $1.79Mtraded
  2. Jahmyr Gibbs39 markets · Lions at Panthers
    $883Ktraded
  3. Jaylen Warren30 markets · Steelers at Browns
    $766Ktraded
  4. Chris Olave28 markets · Falcons at Saints
    $703Ktraded
  5. Alvin Kamara31 markets · Falcons at Saints
    $671Ktraded
Money vs. the odds

Where the public disagrees with the market

Each dot is a game’s public pick: across, its chance to win; up, its share of the money. Above the dashed line, traders liked it more than the odds did. Bigger dots, more money.

UNDERDOGS THE PUBLIC IS BACKING20%30%40%50%60%70%80%50%60%70%80%90%100%Money matches the oddsChance to winShare of the moneyPITDETATLKCINDSFBUFDALLARSEAMINCINARIGBBALCHI
Public on the underdogPiling on the favoriteEverything else
The public’s boldest call
The Falcons

75% of the money at 47% odds against the Saints.

Piling on
The Lions

69% of the money, 17 points above their 53% odds.

Underdog getting action
The Chargers

49% of the money at 31% odds against the Seahawks.

In line with the market
6 games

the Steelers, the Packers, the Bears, the Vikings, the 49ers, the Chiefs: the money and the odds agree.

Every figure

Week 4 money, game by game

Every game’s money, by market and by exchange, and the side buyers took. Tap a column to sort.

NFL Week 4 prediction market money by game and exchange
MoneyBy exchangeThe public
Money vs. oddsWhales
Steelers at BrownsFinal 24–27$61.07M$36.65M$5.55M1,028,014$51.47M84%$5.15M8%$4.44M7%
PIT 66%34% CLE
26924%+4
Lions at PanthersFinal 26–32$57.76M$32.77M$4.94M741,842$46.29M80%$4.99M9%$6.47M11%
DET 69%31% CAR
31226%+17
Falcons at SaintsMon 8:15 PM ET$57.15M$28.05M$8.81M900,007$41.29M72%$10.26M18%$5.60M10%
ATL 75%25% NO
22126%+28
Chiefs at RaidersFinal 30–27$43.85M$30.47M$2.85M642,769$32.69M75%$7.18M16%$3.98M9%
KC 56%44% LV
25718%−8
Colts at CommandersFinal 30–13$30.85M$13.28M$2.86M362,466$19.85M64%$4.69M15%$6.31M20%
IND 73%27% WAS
12327%+9
Broncos at 49ersFinal 14–24$23.23M$12.65M$2.01M313,930$16.85M73%$1.39M6%$4.99M21%
DEN 37%63% SF
12935%−2
Patriots at BillsFinal 29–26$22.27M$12.42M$1.59M296,845$16.05M72%$2.90M13%$3.32M15%
NE 21%79% BUF
9823%+11
Cowboys at TexansFinal 34–30$21.93M$14.35M$1.54M336,864$16.45M75%$1.97M9%$3.51M16%
DAL 75%25% HOU
11619%+26
Rams at EaglesFinal 24–20$21.70M$12.28M$2.30M283,582$15.98M74%$2.20M10%$3.52M16%
LAR 70%30% PHI
10926%+25
Chargers at SeahawksFinal 23–30$15.99M$7.61M$1.77M214,574$13.51M84%$651K4%$1.84M11%
LAC 49%51% SEA
12439%−17
Dolphins at VikingsFinal 10–15$14.95M$6.16M$1.75M225,690$11.73M78%$805K5%$2.42M16%
MIA 37%63% MIN
5127%−3
Jaguars at BengalsFinal 22–17$14.15M$7.31M$1.73M161,463$11.56M82%–$2.60M18%
JAC 35%65% CIN
7823%+16
Cardinals at GiantsFinal 24–36$12.15M$6.82M$1.24M142,008$7.99M66%$1.01M8%$3.15M26%
ARI 68%32% NYG
7631%+14
Packers at BuccaneersFinal 17–14$10.88M$4.63M$1.27M149,123$7.99M73%$962K9%$1.94M18%
GB 66%34% TB
3716%+6
Titans at RavensFinal 18–24$10.47M$4.26M$1.71M134,193$8.96M86%$212K2%$1.29M12%
TEN 11%89% BAL
5641%+17
Jets at BearsFinal 12–23$9.66M$3.39M$1.46M135,128$7.62M79%$493K5%$1.54M16%
NYJ 38%62% CHI
4027%+4
Week 4$428.06M$233.11M$43.39M6,068,498$326.28M76%$44.87M10%$56.91M13%

Money: every market on each game (winner, spread, total, quarters and player props), price × contracts as each exchange reports its trades. Winner and Props: those markets alone. Whales: winner trades of $10,000 or more, and their share of the winner money. Exchanges: Kalshi, Polymarket US (Polymarket’s US exchange) and Polymarket (its international exchange). Sides: Kalshi and Polymarket US buyers, by the team they bought (Polymarket doesn’t publish its buyer’s side). Odds: the average of Kalshi’s and Polymarket US’s midpoints. Gap: the public pick’s share of the money minus its chance. Source: AllTop via DeFi Rate, as of Oct 5, 11:37 PM ET.

Press kit

Week 4 in numbers

Ready to quote. Each line carries its time; copy one and cite DeFi Rate.

  • $428.06M has been traded on NFL Week 4 games on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket since the markets opened, $233.11M of it on the winners, across 6,068,498 trades (as of Oct 5, 11:37 PM ET).
  • Steelers at Browns has drawn the most money of any Week 4 game: $61.07M.
  • In 4 Week 4 games, most prediction market money is on the underdog, led by the Falcons (75% of the money at 47% odds).
  • Kalshi accounts for 76% of the money traded on Week 4 games; Polymarket US for 10%.
  • The biggest single Week 4 trade so far: $762K on the Browns at 98 cents on Kalshi.
  • The team with most of the prediction market money won 10 of 15 finished Week 4 games.
  • $43.39M has been traded on Week 4 player props; Bijan Robinson draws the most, $1.79M across 44 markets.
Cite

Use these numbers

DeFi Rate, “NFL Week 4 Volume at Prediction Markets,” defirate.com/odds/nfl/week-4/, data as of Oct 5, 11:37 PM ET.
Money
What buyers paid for contracts. A contract pays $1 if it comes true.
Public pick
The team Kalshi and Polymarket US buyers put more dollars on, before kickoff.
Odds
The market’s chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask, averaged across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
Updated
Every five minutes, from every trade.
Questions

NFL Week 4 money, answered

Which NFL Week 4 game has the most money traded on it?

Steelers at Browns, with $61.07M traded on the winner across Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.

How much has been traded on NFL Week 4?

$428.06M on the week's games since the markets opened ($233.11M on the winners), in 6,068,498 trades, $55.89M of it in the last 24 hours.

How did the public's Week 4 picks do?

The team with most of the money won 10 of 15 finished games.

Which Week 4 underdogs is the public backing?

The Falcons: 75% of the money at 47% odds. The Cowboys: 75% of the money at 49% odds. The Rams: 70% of the money at 46% odds. The Bengals: 65% of the money at 50% odds.

How much has been traded on NFL Week 4 player props?

$43.39M since the markets opened. Bijan Robinson draws the most prop money, $1.79M across 44 markets.

What was the biggest Week 4 trade?

$762K on the Browns at 98 cents on Kalshi.

Where do these numbers come from?

Every trade on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket, collected by AllTop and counted by DeFi Rate. Money is what buyers paid; the side is the team they bought.

NFL Week 4 · Kalshi

Week 4 results

Tap a game for its full odds, spread and total.

NFL Week 4 games on Kalshi, observed between Oct 1, 11:49 PM ET and Oct 5, 11:36 PM ET
GameResultAwayHomeSources
Steelers at Browns FinalThu, Oct 1Browns won 27–24PIT24CLE27Game →Game →
Colts at Commanders FinalSun, Oct 4Colts won 30–13IND30WAS13Game →Game →
Jaguars at Bengals FinalSun, Oct 4Jaguars won 22–17JAC22CIN17Game →Game →
Cardinals at Giants FinalSun, Oct 4Giants won 36–24ARI24NYG36Game →Game →
Packers at Buccaneers FinalSun, Oct 4Packers won 17–14GB17TB14Game →Game →
Cowboys at Texans FinalSun, Oct 4Cowboys won 34–30DAL34HOU30Game →Game →
Rams at Eagles FinalSun, Oct 4Rams won 24–20LAR24PHI20Game →Game →
Patriots at Bills FinalSun, Oct 4Patriots won 29–26NE29BUF26Game →Game →
Jets at Bears FinalSun, Oct 4Bears won 23–12NYJ12CHI23Game →Game →
Titans at Ravens FinalSun, Oct 4Ravens won 24–18TEN18BAL24Game →Game →
Dolphins at Vikings FinalSun, Oct 4Vikings won 15–10MIA10MIN15Game →Game →
Chargers at Seahawks FinalSun, Oct 4Seahawks won 30–23LAC23SEA30Game →Game →
Broncos at 49ers FinalSun, Oct 449ers won 24–14DEN14SF24Game →Game →
Chiefs at Raiders FinalSun, Oct 4Chiefs won 30–27KC30LV27Game →Game →
Lions at Panthers FinalSun, Oct 4Panthers won 32–26DET26CAR32Game →Game →
Falcons at Saints FinalMon, Oct 5Falcons wonATLSettledNOSettledGame →Game →

16 final Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 1, 11:49 PM ET and Oct 5, 11:36 PM ET.

Where prediction market money is going on NFL Week 4: the dollars traded on every game, which team the buyers are taking, the biggest single trades and the most-traded player props, across Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket. For each game’s odds, spread and total, see NFL Week 4 odds: latest spreads.

Week 4 games

See every game, the Super Bowl and MVP races on the NFL odds page, and print the pick'em sheet.

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Source: Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket / Polymarket US / ProphetX / Rothera / Underdog Exchange via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 5, 9:30 PM ET.