NFL Week 4 VolumeThe public went 10–6 in Week 4, with $428.13M traded
Prediction market traders put $428.13M on NFL Week 4's games, $233.16M of it on who would win and $43.40M on player props. The most went to Steelers at Browns ($61.07M). Most of the money was on the winner in 10 of 16 games; the costliest miss was the Bills, with 83% of their game's money, who lost to the Patriots.
- Kalshi$326.28M76%
- Polymarket US$44.88M10%
- Polymarket$56.98M13%
Was the money right? Every Week 4 game
Each game has two bars in its teams’ colors: the money traders put on each side, and the market’s odds. Where a team’s money runs further than its odds, traders like it more than the market does.
Traders backed the Steelers, and they lost 24–27. 57% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 63% chance to win.
- Winner
- $36.65M
- Spread
- $8.67M
- Total
- $4.80M
- Quarters
- $616K
- Props
- $5.55M
- Other
- $4.78M
- Kalshi
- $51.47M84%
- Poly US
- $5.15M8%
- Polymarket
- $4.44M7%
Traders backed the Colts, and they won 30–13. 65% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 64% chance to win.
- Winner
- $13.28M
- Spread
- $7.08M
- Total
- $5.56M
- Quarters
- $332K
- Props
- $2.86M
- Other
- $1.74M
- Kalshi
- $19.85M64%
- Poly US
- $4.69M15%
- Polymarket
- $6.31M20%
Traders backed the Cardinals, and they lost 24–36. 59% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 55% chance to win.
- Winner
- $6.82M
- Spread
- $2.35M
- Total
- $1.14M
- Props
- $1.24M
- Other
- $532K
- Kalshi
- $7.99M66%
- Poly US
- $1.01M8%
- Polymarket
- $3.15M26%
Traders backed the Cowboys, and they won 34–30. 70% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 49% chance to win.
- Winner
- $14.35M
- Spread
- $3.11M
- Total
- $1.78M
- Props
- $1.54M
- Other
- $1.05M
- Kalshi
- $16.45M75%
- Poly US
- $1.97M9%
- Polymarket
- $3.51M16%
Traders backed the Packers, and they won 17–14. 59% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 60% chance to win.
- Winner
- $4.63M
- Spread
- $2.92M
- Total
- $1.42M
- Props
- $1.27M
- Other
- $559K
- Kalshi
- $7.99M73%
- Poly US
- $962K9%
- Polymarket
- $1.94M18%
Traders backed the Bengals, and they lost 17–22. 65% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 50% chance to win.
- Winner
- $7.31M
- Spread
- $2.73M
- Total
- $1.63M
- Props
- $1.73M
- Other
- $668K
- Kalshi
- $11.56M82%
- Polymarket
- $2.60M18%
Traders backed the Rams, and they won 24–20. 61% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 46% chance to win.
- Winner
- $12.28M
- Spread
- $4.43M
- Total
- $1.52M
- Quarters
- $228K
- Props
- $2.30M
- Other
- $935K
- Kalshi
- $15.98M74%
- Poly US
- $2.20M10%
- Polymarket
- $3.52M16%
Traders backed the Bills, and they lost 26–29. 83% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 68% chance to win.
- Winner
- $12.42M
- Spread
- $4.60M
- Total
- $2.29M
- Props
- $1.59M
- Other
- $1.21M
- Kalshi
- $16.05M72%
- Poly US
- $2.90M13%
- Polymarket
- $3.32M15%
Traders backed the Bears, and they won 23–12. 70% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 58% chance to win.
- Winner
- $3.39M
- Spread
- $2.71M
- Total
- $1.37M
- Quarters
- $96.6K
- Props
- $1.46M
- Other
- $630K
- Kalshi
- $7.62M79%
- Poly US
- $493K5%
- Polymarket
- $1.54M16%
Traders backed the Vikings, and they won 15–10. 67% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 66% chance to win.
- Winner
- $6.16M
- Spread
- $4.18M
- Total
- $1.58M
- Props
- $1.75M
- Other
- $1.18M
- Kalshi
- $11.73M78%
- Poly US
- $805K5%
- Polymarket
- $2.42M16%
Traders backed the Ravens, and they won 24–18. 90% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 73% chance to win.
- Winner
- $4.26M
- Spread
- $2.05M
- Total
- $1.61M
- Props
- $1.71M
- Other
- $762K
- Kalshi
- $8.96M86%
- Poly US
- $212K2%
- Polymarket
- $1.29M12%
Traders backed the 49ers, and they won 24–14. 68% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 65% chance to win.
- Winner
- $12.65M
- Spread
- $4.99M
- Total
- $1.88M
- Quarters
- $353K
- Props
- $2.01M
- Other
- $1.34M
- Kalshi
- $16.85M73%
- Poly US
- $1.39M6%
- Polymarket
- $4.99M21%
Traders backed the Raiders, and they lost 27–30. 53% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 37% chance to win.
- Winner
- $30.47M
- Spread
- $5.21M
- Total
- $3.34M
- Props
- $2.85M
- Other
- $1.63M
- Kalshi
- $32.69M75%
- Poly US
- $7.18M16%
- Polymarket
- $3.98M9%
Traders backed the Seahawks, and they won 30–23. 56% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 69% chance to win.
- Winner
- $7.61M
- Spread
- $3.75M
- Total
- $1.81M
- Props
- $1.77M
- Other
- $915K
- Kalshi
- $13.51M84%
- Poly US
- $651K4%
- Polymarket
- $1.84M11%
Traders backed the Lions, and they lost 26–32. 61% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 53% chance to win.
- Winner
- $32.77M
- Spread
- $8.57M
- Total
- $6.53M
- Quarters
- $734K
- Props
- $4.94M
- Other
- $4.22M
- Kalshi
- $46.29M80%
- Poly US
- $4.99M9%
- Polymarket
- $6.47M11%
Traders backed the Falcons, and they won 45–24. 52% of the money before kickoff was on them, while the odds at open gave them a 41% chance to win.
- Winner
- $28.11M
- Spread
- $9.51M
- Total
- $5.80M
- Quarters
- $712K
- Props
- $8.82M
- Other
- $4.27M
- Kalshi
- $41.29M72%
- Poly US
- $10.27M18%
- Polymarket
- $5.66M10%
Where Week 4 was traded
Kalshi handled 76% of the money traded on Week 4. The average trade was biggest on Polymarket ($553) and smallest on Polymarket US ($52). Player props are 13% of Kalshi’s money.
Kalshi
76% of the week- Trades
- 5,099,451
- Avg. trade
- $64
- Last 24h
- $39.75M
- Winner
- $167.53M51%
- Spread
- $53.16M16%
- Total
- $33.24M10%
- Quarters & halves
- $4.20M1%
- Player props
- $41.73M13%
- Other
- $26.43M8%
Polymarket US
10% of the week- Trades
- 866,399
- Avg. trade
- $52
- Last 24h
- $10.03M
- Winner
- $33.62M75%
- Spread
- $7.23M16%
- Total
- $2.31M5%
- Player props
- $1.68M4%
Polymarket
13% of the week- Trades
- 103,064
- Avg. trade
- $553
- Last 24h
- $4.96M
- Winner
- $32.01M56%
- Spread
- $16.45M29%
- Total
- $8.52M15%
What Week 4 parlays rode on
Kalshi parlay buyers put at least $44.30M on combos with a Week 4 leg, across 20,603 parlays averaging 8.6 legs. Traders betting against those parlays paid another $205.98M.
Most-parlayed picks
Backers’ money in parlays with each leg (a parlay counts for each of its legs).
- Ravens to win3,769 parlays$6.33Mbacking
- Chiefs to win2,569 parlays$6.29Mbacking
- Vikings to win3,087 parlays$6.02Mbacking
- Seahawks to win2,451 parlays$5.43Mbacking
- 49ers to win2,095 parlays$4.93Mbacking
- Lions to win2,162 parlays$4.85Mbacking
- Bills to win3,035 parlays$4.55Mbacking
- Rams to win1,915 parlays$2.39Mbacking
Biggest parlays
The largest bets that every leg hits.
- $126K to win $134KFalcons to win · Tampa Bay wins2legs
- $63.3K to win $87.4KBrowns +7.5 · Under 56.52legs
- $58.1K to win $64.4K49ers to win · Seahawks to win2legs
Kalshi parlays (multi-leg combos) with at least one leg in a Week 4 game, counted once each. Money is what buyers paid; backers bought YES (every leg hits), faders bought NO. Kept apart from the week’s other figures. AllTop knows the legs of 87% of Kalshi’s parlay dollars in the week’s window, so these are floors. Source: AllTop via DeFi Rate.
Biggest Week 4 trades
The largest single trades on a winner.
- Browns at 98¢Steelers at Browns · Kalshi · Thu 11:42 PM$762Kpays $778K
- Browns at 98¢Steelers at Browns · Kalshi · Thu 11:41 PM$725Kpays $739K
- Falcons at 90¢Falcons at Saints · Kalshi · Mon 10:27 PM$450Kpays $500K
- Falcons at 90¢Falcons at Saints · Kalshi · Mon 10:27 PM$450Kpays $500K
- Browns at 98¢Steelers at Browns · Kalshi · Thu 11:42 PM$403Kpays $412K
- Browns at 98¢Steelers at Browns · Kalshi · Thu 11:39 PM$392Kpays $400K
Biggest line moves
Kalshi’s price, since the market opened.
Once a game is settled its market closes, so its move since open drops off here.
Most-traded players
Dollars traded across each player’s props.
- Bijan Robinson44 markets · Falcons at Saints$1.79Mtraded
- Jahmyr Gibbs39 markets · Lions at Panthers$883Ktraded
- Jaylen Warren30 markets · Steelers at Browns$766Ktraded
- Chris Olave28 markets · Falcons at Saints$703Ktraded
- Alvin Kamara31 markets · Falcons at Saints$671Ktraded
Where the public disagreed with the market
Each dot is a game’s public pick: across, its chance to win; up, its share of the money. Above the dashed line, traders liked it more than the odds did. Bigger dots, more money.
70% of the money at 49% odds against the Texans.
90% of the money, 18 points above their 73% odds.
44% of the money at 31% odds against the Seahawks.
the Steelers, the Colts, the Cardinals, the Packers, the Vikings, the 49ers: the money and the odds agree.
Week 4 money, game by game
Every game’s money, by market and by exchange, and the side buyers took. Tap a column to sort.
| Money | By exchange | The public | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Money vs. odds | Whales | |||||||||
| Steelers at BrownsFinal 24–27 | $61.07M | $36.65M | $5.55M | 1,028,014 | $51.47M84% | $5.15M8% | $4.44M7% | Money PIT 57%Odds 63% | 26723% | −5 |
| Lions at PanthersFinal 26–32 | $57.76M | $32.77M | $4.94M | 741,844 | $46.29M80% | $4.99M9% | $6.47M11% | Money DET 61%Odds 53% | 30526% | +9 |
| Falcons at SaintsFinal 45–24 | $57.22M | $28.11M | $8.82M | 900,345 | $41.29M72% | $10.27M18% | $5.66M10% | Money ATL 52%Odds 41% | 20624% | +11 |
| Chiefs at RaidersFinal 30–27 | $43.85M | $30.47M | $2.85M | 642,769 | $32.69M75% | $7.18M16% | $3.98M9% | Money KC 47%Odds 64% | 23716% | +17 |
| Colts at CommandersFinal 30–13 | $30.85M | $13.28M | $2.86M | 362,468 | $19.85M64% | $4.69M15% | $6.31M20% | Money IND 65%Odds 64% | 11422% | +2 |
| Broncos at 49ersFinal 14–24 | $23.23M | $12.65M | $2.01M | 313,939 | $16.85M73% | $1.39M6% | $4.99M21% | Money DEN 32%Odds 35% | 13036% | +3 |
| Patriots at BillsFinal 29–26 | $22.27M | $12.42M | $1.59M | 296,845 | $16.05M72% | $2.90M13% | $3.32M15% | Money NE 17%Odds 32% | 9522% | +15 |
| Cowboys at TexansFinal 34–30 | $21.93M | $14.35M | $1.54M | 336,902 | $16.45M75% | $1.97M9% | $3.51M16% | Money DAL 70%Odds 49% | 11720% | +21 |
| Rams at EaglesFinal 24–20 | $21.70M | $12.28M | $2.30M | 283,582 | $15.98M74% | $2.20M10% | $3.52M16% | Money LAR 61%Odds 46% | 10826% | +15 |
| Chargers at SeahawksFinal 23–30 | $15.99M | $7.61M | $1.77M | 214,576 | $13.51M84% | $651K4% | $1.84M11% | Money LAC 44%Odds 32% | 12339% | −13 |
| Dolphins at VikingsFinal 10–15 | $14.95M | $6.16M | $1.75M | 225,710 | $11.73M78% | $805K5% | $2.42M16% | Money MIA 33%Odds 34% | 5933% | +1 |
| Jaguars at BengalsFinal 22–17 | $14.15M | $7.31M | $1.73M | 161,463 | $11.56M82% | – | $2.60M18% | Money JAC 35%Odds 51% | 7823% | +16 |
| Cardinals at GiantsFinal 24–36 | $12.15M | $6.82M | $1.24M | 142,008 | $7.99M66% | $1.01M8% | $3.15M26% | Money ARI 59%Odds 55% | 7532% | +5 |
| Packers at BuccaneersFinal 17–14 | $10.88M | $4.63M | $1.27M | 149,123 | $7.99M73% | $962K9% | $1.94M18% | Money GB 59%Odds 60% | 3516% | −1 |
| Titans at RavensFinal 18–24 | $10.47M | $4.26M | $1.71M | 134,198 | $8.96M86% | $212K2% | $1.29M12% | Money TEN 10%Odds 28% | 6145% | +18 |
| Jets at BearsFinal 12–23 | $9.66M | $3.39M | $1.46M | 135,128 | $7.62M79% | $493K5% | $1.54M16% | Money NYJ 30%Odds 42% | 4027% | +12 |
| Week 4 | $428.13M | $233.16M | $43.40M | 6,068,914 | $326.28M76% | $44.88M10% | $56.98M13% | |||
Money: every market on each game (winner, spread, total, quarters and player props), price × contracts as each exchange reports its trades. Winner and Props: those markets alone. Whales: winner trades of $10,000 or more, and their share of the winner money. Exchanges: Kalshi, Polymarket US (Polymarket’s US exchange) and Polymarket (its international exchange). Sides: Kalshi and Polymarket US buyers, by the team they bought (Polymarket doesn’t publish its buyer’s side). Odds: the average of Kalshi’s and Polymarket US’s midpoints. Gap: the public pick’s share of the money minus its chance. Source: AllTop via DeFi Rate, as of Oct 9, 3:10 AM ET.
Week 4 in numbers
Ready to quote. Each line carries its time; copy one and cite DeFi Rate.
- $428.13M has been traded on NFL Week 4 games on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket since the markets opened, $233.16M of it on the winners, across 6,068,914 trades (as of Oct 9, 3:10 AM ET).
- Steelers at Browns has drawn the most money of any Week 4 game: $61.07M.
- In 5 Week 4 games, most prediction market money is on the underdog, led by the Cowboys (70% of the money at 49% odds).
- Kalshi accounts for 76% of the money traded on Week 4 games; Polymarket US for 10%.
- The biggest single Week 4 trade: $762K on the Browns at 98 cents on Kalshi.
- The team with most of the prediction market money won 10 of 16 finished Week 4 games.
- Kalshi parlay buyers have put at least $44.30M on parlays with a Week 4 leg; the most-parlayed pick is BAL to win (as of Oct 9, 3:10 AM ET).
- $43.40M has been traded on Week 4 player props; Bijan Robinson draws the most, $1.79M across 44 markets.
Use these numbers
- Money
- What buyers paid for contracts. A contract pays $1 if it comes true.
- Public pick
- The team Kalshi and Polymarket US buyers put more dollars on, before kickoff.
- Odds
- The market’s chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask, averaged across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
- Updated
- Every five minutes, from every trade.
NFL Week 4 money, answered
Which NFL Week 4 game has the most money traded on it?
Steelers at Browns, with $61.07M traded on the winner across Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.
How much has been traded on NFL Week 4?
$428.13M on the week's games since the markets opened ($233.16M on the winners), in 6,068,914 trades, $54.74M of it in the last 24 hours.
How did the public's Week 4 picks do?
The team with most of the money won 10 of 16 finished games.
How much has been traded on NFL Week 4 player props?
$43.40M since the markets opened. Bijan Robinson draws the most prop money, $1.79M across 44 markets.
What was the biggest Week 4 trade?
$762K on the Browns at 98 cents on Kalshi.
Where do these numbers come from?
Every trade on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket, collected by AllTop and counted by DeFi Rate. Money is what buyers paid; the side is the team they bought.
Week 4 results
16 final Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 1, 11:49 PM ET and Oct 5, 11:58 PM ET.
Where prediction market money is going on NFL Week 4: the dollars traded on every game, which team the buyers are taking, the biggest single trades and the most-traded player props, across Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket. For each game’s odds, spread and total, see NFL Week 4 odds: latest spreads.
Week 4 games
- Steelers vs. Browns: Thursday, Oct. 1, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Colts vs. Commanders: Sunday, Oct. 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
- Jaguars vs. Bengals: Sunday, Oct. 4, 1 p.m. ET
- Cardinals vs. Giants: Sunday, Oct. 4, 1 p.m. ET
- Packers vs. Buccaneers: Sunday, Oct. 4, 1 p.m. ET
- Cowboys vs. Texans: Sunday, Oct. 4, 1 p.m. ET
- Rams vs. Eagles: Sunday, Oct. 4, 1 p.m. ET
- Patriots vs. Bills: Sunday, Oct. 4, 1 p.m. ET
- Jets vs. Bears: Sunday, Oct. 4, 1 p.m. ET
- Titans vs. Ravens: Sunday, Oct. 4, 1 p.m. ET
- Dolphins vs. Vikings: Sunday, Oct. 4, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Chargers vs. Seahawks: Sunday, Oct. 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Broncos vs. 49ers: Sunday, Oct. 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: Sunday, Oct. 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Lions vs. Panthers: Sunday, Oct. 4, 8:20 p.m. ET
- Falcons vs. Saints: Monday, Oct. 5, 8:15 p.m. ET
See every game, the Super Bowl and MVP races on the NFL odds page, and print the pick'em sheet.
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