Election Odds: Midterms, 2028 and Primaries
Elections
The most-traded election markets
Of the 93 most-traded politics events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Polymarket US in the last 24 hours, 65 are election markets, with $5.7M traded among them. The most traded was “Brazil Presidential Election” on Polymarket, with $779K.
$5.7M
Across 65 events that are election markets.
Brazil Presidential ElectionPolymarket
$779K traded · Closed
Markets with odds on DeFi Rate open their page; the rest open the venue.
| Market | Top outcomes | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brazil Presidential ElectionPolymarket | Closed | $779K | |
| 2Texas Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | James Talarico 66% · Ken Paxton 37% | $656K | |
| 3Which party will win the U.S. House?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 90% · Republican Party 10% | $559K | |
| 4Los Angeles Mayor winner?Kalshi · Closes Jun 2, 2027 | Nithya Raman 57% · Karen Bass 43% | $433K | |
| 5Brazil Presidential election winner?Kalshi · Closes Oct 25, 2027 | Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 13% | $306K | |
| 62026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats sweep 62% · D-House, R-Senate 29% | $278K | |
| 7Ohio Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Sherrod Brown 62% · Jon Husted 40% | $214K | |
| 82028 Democratic presidential nomineeKalshi · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Jon Ossoff 17% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14% | $207K | |
| 9Which party will win the U.S. Senate?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 62% · Republican Party 39% | $186K | |
| 10Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsPolymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats Sweep 63% · R Senate, D House 29% | $117K | |
| 11Next French Presidential ElectionPolymarket · Closes Apr 30, 2027 | Marine Le Pen 41% · Édouard Philippe 22% | $112K | |
| 12Texas Senate Election WinnerPolymarket | James Talarico (D) 63% · Ken Paxton (R) 38% | $107K | |
| 13Which party will win the House in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 | Democratic Party 91% · Republican Party 9.5% | $105K | |
| 14Michigan Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Abdul El-Sayed 69% · Mike Rogers 33% | $101K | |
| 15Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of VictoryPolymarket · Closes Oct 25, 2026 | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% 47% · Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 31% | $99K | |
| 16Kansas Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Roger Marshall 63% · Adam Hamilton 38% | $90K | |
| 17Which party will win the Senate in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 | Democratic Party 63% · Republican Party 36% | $70K | |
| 18VA-02 House winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Elaine Luria 86% · Jen Kiggans 15% | $68K | |
| 19Ohio Governor winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Amy Acton 71% · Vivek Ramaswamy 30% | $68K | |
| 20Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Gadi Eizenkot 44% · Benjamin Netanyahu 37% | $63K | |
| 21U.S Senate Midterm WinnerPolymarket US | Will the Democratic Party win the Senate in the 2026 Midterms? 47% · Will the Republican Party win the Senate in the 2026 Midterms? 41%Quote from Aug 29, 9:21 AM ET | $57K | |
| 22Ljubljana mayoral election winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 15, 2027 | Zoran Janković 67% · Luka Mesec 17% | $50K | |
| 23Maine Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Troy Jackson 57% · Susan Collins 44% | $44K | |
| 24U.S House Midterm WinnerPolymarket US | Will the Democratic Party win the House in the 2026 Midterms? 84% · Will the Republican Party win the House in the 2026 Midterms? 11%Quote from Aug 29, 9:21 AM ET | $43K | |
| 25Alaska Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Democratic party 74% · Republican party 26% | $42K | |
| 26Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)Kalshi · Closes Jan 20, 2029 | Before January 20, 2029 24% · Before 2028 18% | $40K | |
| 27Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionPolymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Nithya Raman 58% · Karen Bass 42% | $39K | |
| 28Serbia Parliamentary Election WinnerPolymarket · Closes Oct 25, 2026 | Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 54% · Student List – Students Win 50% | $36K | |
| 29Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Polymarket · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18% · Gavin Newsom 16% | $33K | |
| 30Ohio Senate Election WinnerPolymarket | Sherrod Brown (D) 63% · Jon Husted (R) 39% | $32K | |
| 31Texas Governor winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Greg Abbott 76% · Gina Hinojosa 26% | $31K | |
| 32Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victoryKalshi · Closes Oct 25, 2027 | Lula da Silva, ≥1% 11% · Lula da Silva, ≥3% 4.5% | $31K | |
| 332028 Republican presidential nomineeKalshi · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | J.D. Vance 44% · Marco Rubio 17% | $30K | |
| 34Michigan Senate winner? (Person)Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Abdul El-Sayed 68% · Mike Rogers 34% | $29K | |
| 35Florida Governor winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Byron Donalds 78% · David Jolly 24% | $29K | |
| 36South Carolina Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Darline Graham 87% · Annie Andrews 15% | $28K | |
| 37Michigan Senate Election WinnerPolymarket | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 71% · Mike Rogers (R) 31% | $24K | |
| 38California Governor winner? (Person)Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Xavier Becerra 96% · Steve Hilton 3.8% | $22K | |
| 39MO-02 House winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Ann Wagner 76% · Fred Wellman 25% | $20K | |
| 40How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Above 52 38% · 52 18% | $19K | |
| 41Iowa Senate Election WinnerPolymarket | Ashley Hinson (R) 56% · Josh Turek (D) 45% | $19K | |
| 42PA-08 House winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Paige Cognetti 73% · Rob Bresnahan 27% | $19K | |
| 432028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 7, 2029 · Odds on DeFi Rate | J.D. Vance 20% · Jon Ossoff 12% | $19K | |
| 44ME-02 House winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Paul LePage 66% · Matt Dunlap 35% | $18K | |
| 45Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerPolymarket | Closed | $17K | |
| 46Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Polymarket · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | J.D. Vance 48% · Marco Rubio 15% | $17K | |
| 47Iowa Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Ashley Hinson 57% · Josh Turek 44% | $16K | |
| 48Iowa Governor winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Rob Sand 88% · Zach Lahn 13% | $16K | |
| 49Presidential Election Winner 2028Polymarket · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | JD Vance 20% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13%Quote from Oct 9, 12:23 AM ET | $16K | |
| 502026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats, 8 to 10% 29% · Democrats, 10 to 12% 21% | $15K | |
| 51WI-01 House winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Bryan Steil 66% · Mitchell Berman 35% | $14K | |
| 52TX-15 House winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Bobby Pulido 83% · Monica De La Cruz 18% | $14K | |
| 53Texas Senate margin of victoryKalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Ken Paxton, 1+ pts 35% · Ken Paxton, 3+ pts 24% | $14K | |
| 54How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | 48 18% · 47 13% | $13K | |
| 55California Governor Election WinnerPolymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Xavier Becerra 96% · Steve Hilton 3.8% | $13K | |
| 56Michigan Senate margin of victoryKalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Sayed, 1+ pts 66% · Sayed, 3+ pts 49% | $13K | |
| 57WA-03 House winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 89% · John Braun 11% | $13K | |
| 58Who will be Israeli justice minister after the election?Kalshi · Closes Oct 27, 2027 | Yariv Levin 19% · Orit Farkash-Hacohen 7% | $13K | |
| 59Trump out as President before 2027?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Yes 4.6% | $13K | |
| 60Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Polymarket · Closes Apr 30, 2027 | Marine Le Pen 91% · Édouard Philippe 46%Quote from Oct 9, 12:38 AM ET | $12K | |
| 61Minnesota Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Peggy Flanagan 87% · Michele Tafoya 14% | $12K | |
| 62Mississippi Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Cindy Hyde-Smith 92% · Scott Colom 8.9% | $12K | |
| 63Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percentKalshi · Closes Oct 25, 2027 | At least 44% 98% · At least 45% 96% | $11K | |
| 64Georgia Governor winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Rick Jackson 55% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 46% | $11K | |
| 65How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (10/4-10/10)Kalshi · Closes Oct 11, 2026 | At least 1 99% · At least 2 99%Quote from Oct 8, 11:54 PM ET | $11K | |
Source: Kalshi / Polymarket / Polymarket US via DeFi Rate: events ranked by volume, chances observed between Aug 29, 9:21 AM ET and Oct 9, 4:08 AM ET. A chance is the midpoint of the bid and ask, the venue’s displayed price or the last trade, as DeFi Rate’s market data reports it.
On DeFi Rate
Election odds and guides
Ranks: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, as of Oct 9, 4:08 AM ET.
Election odds from prediction markets, updated as they trade. Follow the 2026 midterms, including Senate and House control and the balance of power, the race for US president and both parties' nominees, and the primaries.
Prices are the market's view, not a forecast from DeFi Rate. For where and how to trade these markets, see our political prediction markets guide.