Election Odds: Midterms, 2028 and Primaries
Elections
The most-traded election markets
Of the 91 most-traded politics events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Polymarket US in the last 24 hours, 67 are election markets, with $4.2M traded among them. The most traded was “Brazil Presidential Election” on Polymarket, with $644K.
$4.2M
Across 67 events that are election markets.
Brazil Presidential ElectionPolymarket
$644K traded · Closed
Markets with odds on DeFi Rate open their page; the rest open the venue.
| Market | Top outcomes | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brazil Presidential ElectionPolymarket | Closed | $644K | |
| 2Which party will win the U.S. House?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 92% · Republican Party 8.2%Quote from Oct 4, 9:47 AM ET | $354K | |
| 3Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlacePolymarket | Closed | $285K | |
| 4Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsPolymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats Sweep 67% · R Senate, D House 28% | $282K | |
| 5Texas Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | James Talarico 64% · Ken Paxton 36%Quote from Oct 4, 9:48 AM ET | $214K | |
| 62028 Democratic presidential nomineeKalshi · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Jon Ossoff 17% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14%Quote from Oct 4, 9:41 AM ET | $200K | |
| 7Alaska Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Democratic party 73% · Republican party 29%Quote from Oct 4, 9:49 AM ET | $187K | |
| 8Brazil Presidential Election First Round WinnerPolymarket | Lula 64% · Flavio Bolsonaro 37% | $161K | |
| 9Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryPolymarket | Closed | $147K | |
| 10Brazil Presidential election winner?Kalshi · Closes Oct 25, 2027 | Flávio Bolsonaro 65% · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 38% | $128K | |
| 11Which party will win the U.S. Senate?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 63% · Republican Party 38% | $103K | |
| 12Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Gadi Eizenkot 45% · Benjamin Netanyahu 37% | $84K | |
| 132026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats sweep 64% · D-House, R-Senate 30%Quote from Oct 4, 9:45 AM ET | $80K | |
| 14Presidential Election Winner 2028Polymarket · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | JD Vance 20% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13% | $79K | |
| 15Texas Senate Election WinnerPolymarket | James Talarico (D) 64% · Ken Paxton (R) 37% | $78K | |
| 16Which party will win the Senate in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 | Democratic Party 65% · Republican Party 35% | $70K | |
| 17Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?Polymarket | Closed | $58K | |
| 18Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?Kalshi · Closes Oct 3, 2028 | Flavio Bolsonaro 98% · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 97%Quote from Oct 4, 9:26 AM ET | $52K | |
| 19Brazil presidential election: first round winner?Kalshi · Closes Oct 4, 2027 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 65% · Flávio Bolsonaro 35% | $50K | |
| 20Ohio Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Sherrod Brown 63% · Jon Husted 38%Quote from Oct 4, 9:48 AM ET | $45K | |
| 21Texas Governor winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Greg Abbott 76% · Gina Hinojosa 25% | $44K | |
| 22Los Angeles Mayor winner?Kalshi · Closes Jun 2, 2027 | Nithya Raman 62% · Karen Bass 39%Quote from Oct 4, 9:43 AM ET | $42K | |
| 23U.S Senate Midterm WinnerPolymarket US | Will the Democratic Party win the Senate in the 2026 Midterms? 47% · Will the Republican Party win the Senate in the 2026 Midterms? 40%Quote from Aug 29, 9:21 AM ET | $39K | |
| 24Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Polymarket | Closed | $36K | |
| 25Bahia Governor Election WinnerPolymarket | Closed | $30K | |
| 26Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Polymarket · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 17% · Gavin Newsom 17% | $29K | |
| 27Lima Mayoral Election WinnerPolymarket · Closes Oct 4, 2026 | Rafael López Aliaga 94% · Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 1.6% | $28K | |
| 28Which party will win the House in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 | Democratic Party 94% · Republican Party 7.5% | $27K | |
| 29NC-11 House winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Jamie Ager 70% · Jennifer Balkcom 31%Quote from Oct 4, 9:19 AM ET | $27K | |
| 30Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election WinnerPolymarket | Closed | $26K | |
| 312028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 7, 2029 · Odds on DeFi Rate | J.D. Vance 20% · Jon Ossoff 12% | $25K | |
| 32Kansas Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Roger Marshall 66% · Adam Hamilton 36% | $25K | |
| 33British Columbia general election: 3rd placeKalshi · Closes Oct 24, 2027 | BC Greens 98% · CentreBC 1% | $24K | |
| 34São Paulo Senate Election: 1st PlacePolymarket | Guilherme Derrite 84% · André do Prado 9.3% | $24K | |
| 35Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Polymarket · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | J.D. Vance 50% · Marco Rubio 15% | $24K | |
| 36Kansas Senate Election WinnerPolymarket | Roger Marshall (R) 67% · Adam Hamilton (D) 34% | $20K | |
| 37Maine Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Troy Jackson 59% · Susan Collins 41% | $19K | |
| 38Taipei Mayor Election WinnerPolymarket | Chiang Wan-an 72% · Puma Shen 29% | $19K | |
| 39Ceará Governor Election WinnerPolymarket | Closed | $18K | |
| 40Michigan Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Abdul El-Sayed 72% · Mike Rogers 29% | $18K | |
| 41How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Above 52 36% · 52 18%Quote from Oct 4, 8:57 AM ET | $17K | |
| 422028 Republican presidential nomineeKalshi · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | J.D. Vance 45% · Marco Rubio 18%Quote from Oct 4, 9:40 AM ET | $16K | |
| 43Georgia Governor winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Rick Jackson 54% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 48% | $16K | |
| 44Bulgaria Presidential ElectionPolymarket · Closes Nov 30, 2026 | Iliana Iotova 87% · Аndrey Gyurov 14% | $14K | |
| 45Paraná Governor Election WinnerPolymarket · Closes Oct 4, 2026 | Sergio Moro 76% · Sandro Alex 23% | $13K | |
| 46Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceKalshi · Closes Oct 4, 2027 | Renan Santos 52% · Augusto Cury 27% | $13K | |
| 47How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/27-10/3)Kalshi · Closes Oct 4, 2026 | At least 1 99% · At least 2 99%Quote from Oct 4, 5:54 AM ET | $13K | |
| 48TX-25 House Election WinnerPolymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 | Roger Williams (R) 94% · Dione Sims (D) 4.9%Quote from Oct 4, 9:42 AM ET | $12K | |
| 49Spain snap election called by...?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | December 31 62% · November 30 59% | $12K | |
| 50Pernambuco Governor Election WinnerPolymarket · Closes Oct 4, 2026 | Raquel Lyra 54% · João Campos 46% | $12K | |
| 51Federal District Senate Election: 2nd PlacePolymarket | Closed | $11K | |
| 52Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryKalshi · Closes Oct 4, 2027 | Lula da Silva, 0-5% 49% · Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% 36% | $11K | |
| 53Pará Senate Election: 1st PlacePolymarket | Helder 94% · Chicão 1.6% | $11K | |
| 54California Governor winner? (Person)Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Xavier Becerra 96% · Steve Hilton 3.7%Quote from Oct 4, 9:19 AM ET | $11K | |
| 55Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerPolymarket · Closes Oct 4, 2026 | Eduardo Paes 83% · Douglas Ruas 18% | $11K | |
| 56Amapá Senate Election: 1st PlacePolymarket | Rayssa Furlan 98% · Alliny Serrão 0.4% | $11K | |
| 57Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal DistrictPolymarket | Flavio Bolsonaro >99% · Lula 0.7%Quote from Oct 4, 8:44 AM ET | $11K | |
| 58South Carolina Senate Election WinnerPolymarket | Darline Graham Nordone (R) 86% · Annie Andrews (D) 15% | $10K | |
| 59Toronto Mayoral Election WinnerPolymarket · Closes Oct 26, 2026 | Olivia Chow 90% · Brad Bradford 11% | $10K | |
| 60How many House seats will Democrats win in Iowa?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Above 2 47% · 2 31%Quote from Oct 4, 9:46 AM ET | $10K | |
| 61Minnesota Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Peggy Flanagan 87% · Michele Tafoya 14% | $10K | |
| 62Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceKalshi · Closes Oct 4, 2027 | Flávio Bolsonaro 62% · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 37% | $9K | |
| 63Kaohsiung Mayor Election WinnerPolymarket | Lai Jui-lung 63% · Ko Chih-en 38% | $9K | |
| 64Trump out as President before 2027?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Yes 3.6% | $8K | |
| 65Nevada Governor Election WinnerPolymarket | Aaron Ford (D) 55% · Joe Lombardo (R) 46% | $8K | |
| 66California Governor Election WinnerPolymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Xavier Becerra 96% · Steve Hilton 4.1% | $8K | |
| 67U.S House Midterm WinnerPolymarket US | Will the Democratic Party win the House in the 2026 Midterms? 84% · Will the Republican Party win the House in the 2026 Midterms? 10%Quote from Aug 29, 9:21 AM ET | $8K | |
Source: Kalshi / Polymarket / Polymarket US via DeFi Rate: events ranked by volume, chances observed between Aug 29, 9:21 AM ET and Oct 4, 9:55 AM ET. A chance is the midpoint of the bid and ask, the venue’s displayed price or the last trade, as DeFi Rate’s market data reports it.
On DeFi Rate
Election odds and guides
Ranks: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, as of Oct 4, 9:55 AM ET.
Election odds from prediction markets, updated as they trade. Follow the 2026 midterms, including Senate and House control and the balance of power, the race for US president and both parties' nominees, and the primaries.
Prices are the market's view, not a forecast from DeFi Rate. For where and how to trade these markets, see our political prediction markets guide.