Politics Odds: Trump, Government and Policy
The most-traded politics markets
Politics markets traded $10M on Polymarket, Kalshi, Polymarket US and Rothera in the last 24 hours, down 21% from the 24 hours before. The most traded was “Brazil Presidential Election” on Polymarket, with $1.5M.
Down 21%vs. the 24 hours before
Polymarket $5M · Kalshi $4.4M · Polymarket US $515K · Rothera $168K
Kalshi $365M · Polymarket US $6.3M
Kalshi 24,553 · Polymarket 10,839 · Polymarket US 6,560 · Rothera 396 · ProphetX 9
$1.5M traded · Closed
Markets with odds on DeFi Rate open their page; the rest open the venue.
10 rows shown
| Market | Top outcomes | |
|---|---|---|
| 1Brazil Presidential ElectionPolymarket | Closed | $10M |
| 2Which party will win the U.S. House?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 91% · Republican Party 8.8% | $7.3M |
| 32026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats sweep 65% · D-House, R-Senate 29% | $6.6M |
| 1Brazil Presidential ElectionPolymarket | Closed | $5.8M |
| 42028 Democratic presidential nomineeKalshi · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Jon Ossoff 17% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14% | $5.5M |
| 5Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Yes 15% | $4.3M |
| 6Texas Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | James Talarico 66% · Ken Paxton 35% | $4.2M |
| 7Los Angeles Mayor winner?Kalshi · Closes Jun 2, 2027 | Nithya Raman 60% · Karen Bass 41% | $2.7M |
| 8Which party will win the House in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 | Democratic Party 93% · Republican Party 7.5% | $2.5M |
| 9Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | December 31 15% · October 31 5.5% | $2.4M |
| 10Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Gadi Eizenkot 47% · Benjamin Netanyahu 36% | $2.3M |
| 2Which party will win the U.S. House?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 91% · Republican Party 8.8% | $2M |
| 3Texas Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | James Talarico 66% · Ken Paxton 35% | $1.9M |
| 42026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats sweep 65% · D-House, R-Senate 29% | $1.8M |
| 1Brazil Presidential ElectionPolymarket | Closed | $1.5M |
| 5US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?Polymarket | March 31 72% · December 31 52% | $1.4M |
| 6Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Yes 15% | $1.4M |
| 7Brazil Presidential election winner?Kalshi · Closes Oct 25, 2027 | Flávio Bolsonaro 83% · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 17% | $1.1M |
| 8Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Gadi Eizenkot 47% · Benjamin Netanyahu 36% | $1.1M |
| 92028 Democratic presidential nomineeKalshi · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Jon Ossoff 17% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14% | $1M |
| 10Which party will win the U.S. Senate?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 65% · Republican Party 36% | $889K |
| 2Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Yes 15% | $426K |
| 3Which party will win the U.S. House?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 91% · Republican Party 8.8% | $387K |
| 42026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats sweep 65% · D-House, R-Senate 29% | $354K |
| 5Texas Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | James Talarico 66% · Ken Paxton 35% | $323K |
| 6Los Angeles Mayor winner?Kalshi · Closes Jun 2, 2027 | Nithya Raman 60% · Karen Bass 41% | $255K |
| 7California Governor winner? (Person)Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Xavier Becerra 97% · Steve Hilton 3.4% | $242K |
| 8US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?Polymarket | March 31 72% · December 31 52% | $241K |
| 9Next Prime Minister of Spain?Polymarket · Closes Mar 31, 2028 | Alberto Núñez Feijóo 81% · Pedro Sánchez 18% | $240K |
| 10Iowa Governor winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Rob Sand 89% · Zach Lahn 13% | $232K |
Source: Kalshi / Polymarket / Polymarket US / ProphetX / Rothera via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 5, 9:30 PM ET; events ranked by volume, chances observed between Oct 5, 9:57 PM and 10:27 PM ET. A chance is the midpoint of the bid and ask, as DeFi Rate’s market data reports it.
Politics odds and guides
Ranks: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, as of Oct 5, 10:27 PM ET.
Politics odds from prediction markets, updated as they trade. Follow Trump and what he'll say, who leaves the administration next, the next attorney general and a government shutdown. Election markets have their own hub: election odds.
Prices are the market's view, not a forecast from DeFi Rate. For where and how to trade these markets, see our political prediction markets guide.