Politics Odds: Trump, Government and Policy
The most-traded politics markets
Politics markets traded $7.1M on Polymarket, Kalshi, Polymarket US and Rothera in the last 24 hours, down 13% from the 24 hours before. The most traded was “Brazil Presidential Election” on Polymarket, with $644K.
Down 13%vs. the 24 hours before
Polymarket $3.4M · Kalshi $2.7M · Polymarket US $653K · Rothera $303K
Kalshi $319M · Polymarket US $5.7M
Kalshi 24,682 · Polymarket 11,776 · Polymarket US 6,578 · Rothera 395 · ProphetX 9
$644K traded · Closed
Markets with odds on DeFi Rate open their page; the rest open the venue.
10 rows shown
| Market | Top outcomes | |
|---|---|---|
| 1Which party will win the U.S. House?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 92% · Republican Party 8.2%Quote from Oct 4, 9:47 AM ET | $6.9M |
| 2Brazil Presidential ElectionPolymarket | Closed | $6.8M |
| 32026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats sweep 64% · D-House, R-Senate 30%Quote from Oct 4, 9:45 AM ET | $6.2M |
| 42028 Democratic presidential nomineeKalshi · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Jon Ossoff 17% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14%Quote from Oct 4, 9:41 AM ET | $5.4M |
| 5Texas Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | James Talarico 64% · Ken Paxton 36%Quote from Oct 4, 9:48 AM ET | $3.8M |
| 1Brazil Presidential ElectionPolymarket | Closed | $2.6M |
| 6Los Angeles Mayor winner?Kalshi · Closes Jun 2, 2027 | Nithya Raman 62% · Karen Bass 39%Quote from Oct 4, 9:43 AM ET | $2.5M |
| 7Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsPolymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats Sweep 67% · R Senate, D House 28% | $2.2M |
| 8Which party will win the U.S. Senate?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 63% · Republican Party 38% | $2.2M |
| 9Which party will win the House in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 | Democratic Party 94% · Republican Party 7.5% | $2.1M |
| 10Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Gadi Eizenkot 45% · Benjamin Netanyahu 37% | $2.1M |
| 2Which party will win the U.S. House?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 92% · Republican Party 8.2%Quote from Oct 4, 9:47 AM ET | $1.7M |
| 3Texas Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | James Talarico 64% · Ken Paxton 36%Quote from Oct 4, 9:48 AM ET | $1.5M |
| 42026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats sweep 64% · D-House, R-Senate 30%Quote from Oct 4, 9:45 AM ET | $1.4M |
| 5US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?Polymarket | March 31 70% · December 31 52%Quote from Oct 4, 5:30 AM ET | $1.4M |
| 62028 Democratic presidential nomineeKalshi · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Jon Ossoff 17% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14%Quote from Oct 4, 9:41 AM ET | $1.1M |
| 7Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Gadi Eizenkot 45% · Benjamin Netanyahu 37% | $975K |
| 8Which party will win the U.S. Senate?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 63% · Republican Party 38% | $818K |
| 9Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsPolymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats Sweep 67% · R Senate, D House 28% | $747K |
| 10Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlacePolymarket | Closed | $740K |
| 1Brazil Presidential ElectionPolymarket | Closed | $644K |
| 2Which party will win the U.S. House?Kalshi · Closes Feb 1, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democratic Party 92% · Republican Party 8.2%Quote from Oct 4, 9:47 AM ET | $354K |
| 3Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlacePolymarket | Closed | $285K |
| 4Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsPolymarket · Closes Nov 3, 2026 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Democrats Sweep 67% · R Senate, D House 28% | $282K |
| 5US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?Polymarket | March 31 70% · December 31 52%Quote from Oct 4, 5:30 AM ET | $229K |
| 6Texas Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 · Odds on DeFi Rate | James Talarico 64% · Ken Paxton 36%Quote from Oct 4, 9:48 AM ET | $214K |
| 72028 Democratic presidential nomineeKalshi · Closes Nov 7, 2028 · Odds on DeFi Rate | Jon Ossoff 17% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14%Quote from Oct 4, 9:41 AM ET | $200K |
| 8Alaska Senate winner?Kalshi · Closes Nov 3, 2027 | Democratic party 73% · Republican party 29%Quote from Oct 4, 9:49 AM ET | $187K |
| 9Brazil Presidential Election First Round WinnerPolymarket | Lula 64% · Flavio Bolsonaro 37% | $161K |
| 10Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryPolymarket | Closed | $147K |
Source: Kalshi / Polymarket / Polymarket US / ProphetX / Rothera via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 4, 8:30 AM ET; events ranked by volume, chances observed between Oct 4, 5:30 AM and 9:54 AM ET. A chance is the midpoint of the bid and ask or the venue’s displayed price, as DeFi Rate’s market data reports it.
Politics odds and guides
Ranks: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, as of Oct 4, 9:54 AM ET.
Politics odds from prediction markets, updated as they trade. Follow Trump and what he'll say, who leaves the administration next, the next attorney general and a government shutdown. Election markets have their own hub: election odds.
Prices are the market's view, not a forecast from DeFi Rate. For where and how to trade these markets, see our political prediction markets guide.