2026 Midterm Election Odds Democrats are favored to win both chambers

How midterm prediction markets work

Each market asks a yes-or-no question, such as “Will Democrats control the Senate?” A contract pays $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if it’s no, so its price works as a probability: 64¢ means traders collectively put the chance at about 64%.

Take the Texas Senate race. If James Talarico trades at 58¢, 100 contracts cost $58. If he wins, they pay $100, a $42 profit before fees. If he loses, they’re worth nothing. You don’t have to hold until Election Day: if the price rises to 75¢ and someone is buying, you can sell early and keep the difference.

A price isn’t a poll. A candidate at 60¢ doesn’t have 60% of the vote; traders think they have about a 60% chance of winning.

What you can trade

• Chamber control: which party wins the House and the Senate.
• Balance of power: the four House/Senate combinations, such as a Democratic House with a Republican Senate.
• Individual races: the winner of a given Senate, House or governor race.
• Seat counts and margins: how many seats a party ends up with, or the national House popular-vote margin.

Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini are federally regulated US exchanges that offer these markets. Polymarket’s international exchange lists many of the same questions, but it isn’t available to US residents.

Why the venues show different prices

Nothing requires two exchanges to agree. Each has its own traders and order book, and some questions are built differently. Kalshi, for example, has no single Senate-control contract; its figure comes from adding two balance-of-power contracts. The source comparison shows every venue’s price next to ours, and labels which comparisons are like-for-like.

A gap isn’t free money. The displayed prices may not be available in size, fees reduce the difference, and the contracts may settle on slightly different terms.

Read the settlement rules

The market title isn’t the contract. Each one names its resolution source and says what happens after a recount, a runoff, a tie or a delayed certification. A network projection doesn’t settle anything. Every source record on this page links to the contract so you can read its rules before you trade.

How to place a trade

1. Find the race in the race explorer and open its source record to see the exact contract.
2. Compare the venues in Compare prices. It shows the quote to buy, recent activity and an estimated fee for your order size.
3. Open the contract on the exchange, check its rules, and enter your amount. The exchange shows the final cost and payout before you confirm.
4. Hold to settlement or sell earlier at the market price, if there’s a buyer.

In a thin market, the quoted price may only be available for a few contracts. Larger orders can fill at worse prices.

Is election trading legal in the US?

Kalshi, Gemini Titan and QCX LLC (which operates Polymarket US) are designated contract markets registered with the CFTC. The CFTC disapproved Kalshi’s congressional-control contracts in 2023; a federal court vacated that decision in 2024, and the appeal was dismissed in 2025. The CFTC chair has since warned that attempts to move political markets artificially could bring manipulation cases, and the Senate has barred senators and staff from trading these markets. Availability can still vary by platform and state, so check before you fund an account.