DeFi Rate Senate oddsDemocrats are favored in 18 of 35 Senate races
Compare live prediction-market prices for all 35 U.S. Senate elections in 2026 across Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Gemini and OG. Search by state or candidate, track daily market moves and see how each race could affect Senate control.
About 2 in 5 Up 1 pt this week
Turek (D) vs. Hinson (R)
About 3 in 5 Up 5 pts this week
Brown (D) vs. Husted (R)
All 35 Senate races
Kalshi prices to buy; a stale quote shows its last price instead. “Buy GOP” buys No on the Democratic contract, except in Nebraska, where an independent is running. Tap a price to open that race’s market.
| Race | Dem chance | 7 days | Buy Dem | Buy GOP | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa Stale quoteTurek (D) vs. Hinson (R) | 44% At last trade, $100 returns $229 | +1 pts | Dem43.5¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Maine Stale quoteJackson (D) vs. Collins (R) | 59% At last trade, $100 returns $170 | −1 pts | Dem58.5¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Ohio 51st seatBrown (D) vs. Husted (R) | 63% At last trade, $100 returns $160 | +5 pts | Dem62.5¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| TexasTalarico (D) vs. Paxton (R) | 64% $100 on GOP at the ask pays $270 | +5 pts | Dem65¢ | GOP37¢ | Sources› |
| Kansas | 36% $100 on Dem at the ask pays $277 | +6 pts | Dem36¢ | GOP65¢ | Sources› |
| MichiganEl-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R) | 72% $100 on GOP at the ask pays $344 | – | Dem72¢ | GOP29¢ | Sources› |
| Alaska Stale quotePeltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R) | 73% At last trade, $100 returns $136 | +3 pts | Dem73¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| New HampshirePappas (D) | 86% $100 on GOP at the ask pays $666 | +1 pts | Dem87¢ | GOP15¢ | Sources› |
| Minnesota Stale quote | 87% At last trade, $100 returns $115 | −2 pts | Dem86.5¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| South Carolina Stale quote | 14% At last trade, $100 returns $740 | +1 pts | Dem13.5¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| FloridaSpecial election | 12% $100 on Dem at the ask pays $769 | +2 pts | Dem13¢ | GOP89¢ | Sources› |
| Mississippi Stale quote | 10% At last trade, $100 returns $985 | – | Dem10.2¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Arkansas Stale quote | 7% At last trade, $100 returns $1,418 | – | Dem7¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Louisiana Stale quote | 7% At last trade, $100 returns $1,449 | −3 pts | Dem6.9¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Tennessee | 7% $100 on Dem at the ask pays $1,234 | +5 pts | Dem8.1¢ | GOP94.6¢ | Sources› |
| North Carolina Stale quoteCooper (D) | 95% At last trade, $100 returns $104 | +2 pts | Dem95.3¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Georgia Stale quoteOssoff (D) | 96% At last trade, $100 returns $104 | +2 pts | Dem95.8¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Kentucky Stale quote | 4% At last trade, $100 returns $2,469 | −1 pts | Dem4¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Alabama Stale quote | 3% At last trade, $100 returns $3,773 | – | Dem2.6¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Wyoming Stale quote | 3% At last trade, $100 returns $4,000 | – | Dem2.5¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| West Virginia Stale quote | 2% At last trade, $100 returns $4,081 | – | Dem2.5¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Oklahoma Stale quote | 2% At last trade, $100 returns $4,347 | +1 pts | Dem2.3¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Illinois Stale quote | 98% At last trade, $100 returns $102 | – | Dem97.8¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| New Mexico Stale quote | 98% At last trade, $100 returns $101 | +1 pts | Dem98.1¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Virginia Stale quote | 98% At last trade, $100 returns $101 | – | Dem98.4¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Massachusetts Stale quote | 99% At last trade, $100 returns $101 | – | Dem98.5¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Oregon Stale quote | 99% At last trade, $100 returns $101 | +1 pts | Dem98.6¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Delaware Stale quote | 99% At last trade, $100 returns $101 | – | Dem98.6¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| New Jersey Stale quote | 99% At last trade, $100 returns $101 | +1 pts | Dem98.6¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Colorado Stale quote | 99% At last trade, $100 returns $101 | – | Dem98.7¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Rhode Island Stale quote | >99% At last trade, $100 returns $100 | – | Dem99.1¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Montana Stale quote | <1% At last trade, $100 returns $11,111 | −1 pts | Dem0.90¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| Nebraska IndependentOsborn (I) vs. Ricketts (R) · Kalshi asks if a Democrat wins | <1% At last trade, $100 returns $12,500 | +1 pts | Dem0.80¢ | GOPSee note | Sources› |
| Idaho Stale quote | <1% At last trade, $100 returns $20,000 | – | Dem0.50¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
| South Dakota Stale quote | <1% At last trade, $100 returns $33,333 | – | Dem0.30¢ | GOPStale | Sources› |
Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 8:18 AM and 10:01 AM ET. Some quotes are stale: they weren’t observed recently and may have moved, so they show their last price and aren’t offered as a price to buy. Each race’s sources show when.
Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
Mary Peltola is the favorite at 73%, averaging Kalshi (73%) and Polymarket (73%). Kalshi traders make Mary Peltola the favorite at 73%, ahead of Dan Sullivan at 29%. Polymarket traders make Mary Peltola the favorite at 73%, ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan at 28%.
Average of Kalshi (73%) and Polymarket (73%)
Kalshi 29%
Polymarket: $3K (63%) · Kalshi: $2K (37%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Polymarket: Nov 3, 2026
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 7:25 AM and 9:59 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Ann Diener: Kalshi 0.1% and Polymarket <0.1%. Our figure is their average.
Arkansas Senate winner?
Tom Cotton (R) is the favorite at 93%, averaging Kalshi (93%) and Polymarket (93%). Kalshi traders make Tom Cotton the favorite at 93%, ahead of Hallie Shoffner at 7.1%. Polymarket traders make Tom Cotton (R) the favorite at 93%, ahead of Hallie Shoffner (D) at 7.1%.
Average of Kalshi (93%) and Polymarket (93%)
Average of Kalshi (7.1%) and Polymarket (7.1%)
Polymarket: $2K (87%) · Kalshi: $288 (13%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:32 AM and 10:00 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Tom Cotton (R): Kalshi 93% and Polymarket 93%. Our figure is their average.
Delaware Senate winner?
Democratic party is the favorite at 99%, averaging Kalshi (99%) and Polymarket (99%). Kalshi traders make Democratic party the favorite at 99%, ahead of Republican party at 1%. Polymarket traders make Democrat the favorite at 99%, ahead of Republican at 1.5%.
Average of Kalshi (99%) and Polymarket (99%)
Average of Kalshi (1%) and Polymarket (1.5%)
Kalshi: $26 (100%) · Polymarket: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 8:18 AM and 9:32 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Republican party: Kalshi 1% and Polymarket 1.5%. Our figure is their average.
Florida Senate winner?
Ashley Moody (R) is the favorite at 90%, averaging Kalshi (89%) and Polymarket (91%). Kalshi traders make Ashley Moody the favorite at 89%, ahead of Angie Nixon at 12%. Polymarket traders make Ashley Moody (R) the favorite at 91%, ahead of Angie Nixon (D) at 9.5%.
Average of Kalshi (89%) and Polymarket (91%)
Average of Kalshi (12%) and Polymarket (9.5%)
Kalshi: $7K (95%) · Polymarket: $321 (5%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:32 AM and 10:00 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Angie Nixon (D): Kalshi 12% and Polymarket 9.5%. Our figure is their average.
Idaho Senate winner?
Jim Risch (R) is the favorite at 94%, averaging Kalshi (93%) and Polymarket (95%). Kalshi traders make Jim Risch the favorite at 93%, ahead of Todd Achilles at 7.5%. Polymarket traders make Jim Risch (R) the favorite at 95%, ahead of Todd Achilles (I) at 5.1%.
Average of Kalshi (93%) and Polymarket (95%)
Average of Kalshi (7.5%) and Polymarket (5.1%)
Kalshi: $5K (99%) · Polymarket: $55 (1%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 8:32 AM and 9:59 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Todd Achilles (I): Kalshi 7.5% and Polymarket 5.1%. Our figure is their average.
Illinois Senate winner?
Juliana Stratton (D) is the favorite at 98%, averaging Kalshi (98%) and Polymarket (98%). Kalshi traders make Juliana Stratton the favorite at 98%, ahead of Don Tracy at 1.3%. Polymarket traders make Juliana Stratton (D) the favorite at 98%, ahead of Don Tracy (R) at 2.2%.
Average of Kalshi (98%) and Polymarket (98%)
Average of Kalshi (1.3%) and Polymarket (2.2%)
Nothing traded in the last 24 hours
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 8:18 AM and 9:45 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Don Tracy (R): Kalshi 1.3% and Polymarket 2.2%. Our figure is their average.
Kentucky Senate winner?
Andy Barr (R) is the favorite at 96%, averaging Kalshi (96%) and Polymarket (97%). Kalshi traders make Andy Barr the favorite at 96%, ahead of Charles Booker at 4.1%. Polymarket traders make Andy Barr (R) the favorite at 97%, ahead of Charles Booker (D) at 2.8%.
Average of Kalshi (96%) and Polymarket (97%)
Average of Kalshi (4.1%) and Polymarket (2.8%)
Kalshi: $102 (100%) · Polymarket: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:32 AM and 9:50 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Charles Booker (D): Kalshi 4.1% and Polymarket 2.8%. Our figure is their average.
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election?
Kalshi traders make Troy Jackson the favorite at 56%, ahead of Susan Collins at 43%.
About 3 in 5
About 2 in 5
Most traded: Troy Jackson ($1K)
10:00 AM ET
Prices to buy each outcome. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi.
| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | 56% | Kalshi56¢ | ||
| Susan Collins | 43% | Kalshi43¢ | ||
| Angus King III | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Brian Bryant | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Dan Kleban | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Graham Platner | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Jared Golden | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Janet Mills | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Mattie Daughtrey | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Nirav Shah | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Patrick Dempsey | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Shenna Bellows | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Sara Gideon | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Stephen King | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
| Valli Geiger | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | ||
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 7:17 AM and 9:42 AM ET.
Massachusetts Senate winner?
Ed Markey (D) is the favorite at 98%, averaging Kalshi (99%) and Polymarket (98%). Kalshi traders make Ed Markey the favorite at 99%, ahead of John Deaton at 1.5%. Polymarket traders make Ed Markey (D) the favorite at 98%, ahead of John Deaton (R) at 1.7%.
Average of Kalshi (99%) and Polymarket (98%)
Average of Kalshi (1.5%) and Polymarket (1.7%)
Kalshi: $25 (100%) · Polymarket: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 8:18 AM and 9:32 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Ed Markey (D): Kalshi 99% and Polymarket 98%. Our figure is their average.
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi traders make Abdul El-Sayed the favorite at 72%, ahead of Mike Rogers at 29%.
About 7 in 10
About 1 in 3
Most traded: Abdul El-Sayed ($10K)
11:00 AM ET
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:50 AM and 9:52 AM ET.
Minnesota Senate winner?
Peggy Flanagan (D) is the favorite at 88%, averaging Kalshi (87%) and Polymarket (89%). Kalshi traders make Peggy Flanagan the favorite at 87%, ahead of Michele Tafoya at 14%. Polymarket traders make Peggy Flanagan (D) the favorite at 89%, ahead of Michele Tafoya (R) at 12%.
Average of Kalshi (87%) and Polymarket (89%)
Average of Kalshi (14%) and Polymarket (12%)
Kalshi: $8K (82%) · Polymarket: $2K (18%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:50 AM and 10:00 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Peggy Flanagan (D): Kalshi 87% and Polymarket 89%. Our figure is their average.
Mississippi Senate winner?
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is the favorite at 90%, averaging Kalshi (90%) and Polymarket (91%). Kalshi traders make Cindy Hyde-Smith the favorite at 90%, ahead of Scott Colom at 10%. Polymarket traders make Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) the favorite at 91%, ahead of Scott Colom (D) at 9.5%.
Average of Kalshi (90%) and Polymarket (91%)
Average of Kalshi (10%) and Polymarket (9.5%)
Kalshi: $745 (97%) · Polymarket: $21 (3%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:32 AM and 9:54 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Scott Colom (D): Kalshi 10% and Polymarket 9.5%. Our figure is their average.
Montana Senate winner?
Kurt Alme (R) is the favorite at 92%, averaging Kalshi (92%) and Polymarket (92%). Kalshi traders make Kurt Alme the favorite at 92%, ahead of Seth Bodnar at 7.5%. Polymarket traders make Kurt Alme (R) the favorite at 92%, ahead of Independent at 8.3%.
Average of Kalshi (92%) and Polymarket (92%)
Polymarket 8.3%
Kalshi: $297 (97%) · Polymarket: $10 (3%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:32 AM and 9:50 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Alani Bankhead (D): Kalshi 0.9% and Polymarket 0.4%. Our figure is their average.
Nebraska Senate winner?
Kalshi traders make Pete Ricketts the favorite at 73%, ahead of Dan Osborn at 28%.
About 7 in 10
About 1 in 4
Most traded: Pete Ricketts ($2K)
11:00 AM ET
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 4, 9:50 AM ET.
New Hampshire Senate winner?
Chris Pappas (D) is the favorite at 86%, averaging Kalshi (86%) and Polymarket (87%). Kalshi traders make Chris Pappas the favorite at 86%, ahead of John E. Sununu at 14%. Polymarket traders make Chris Pappas (D) the favorite at 87%, ahead of John E. Sununu (R) at 14%.
Average of Kalshi (86%) and Polymarket (87%)
Average of Kalshi (14%) and Polymarket (14%)
Kalshi: $6K (56%) · Polymarket: $5K (44%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Prices to buy each outcome. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Polymarket.
| Outcome | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas (D) | 86% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $114 | Kalshi87¢ | Polymarket87¢ | |
| John E. Sununu (R) | 14% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $714 | Kalshi14¢Lowest ask | Polymarket15¢ |
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 4, 10:00 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Chris Pappas (D): Kalshi 86% and Polymarket 87%. Our figure is their average.
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi traders make Sherrod Brown the favorite at 63%, ahead of Jon Husted at 38%.
About 3 in 5
About 2 in 5
Most traded: Sherrod Brown ($27K)
11:00 AM ET
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 4, 9:48 AM ET.
Oklahoma Senate winner?
Kalshi traders make Kevin Hern the favorite at 97%, ahead of N’Kiyla Thomas at 2.3%.
About 49 in 50
About 1 in 43
Most traded: Kevin Hern ($29)
11:00 AM ET
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 8:18 AM and 9:14 AM ET.
Rhode Island Senate winner?
Jack Reed (D) is the favorite at more than 99%, averaging Kalshi (>99%) and Polymarket (>99%). Kalshi traders make Jack Reed the favorite at more than 99%, ahead of Raymond McKay at 0.9%. Polymarket traders make Jack Reed (D) the favorite at more than 99%, ahead of Raymond McKay (R) at 0.8%.
Average of Kalshi (>99%) and Polymarket (>99%)
Average of Kalshi (0.9%) and Polymarket (0.8%)
Kalshi: $0 (100%) · Polymarket: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 8:18 AM and 9:45 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Jack Reed (D): Kalshi >99% and Polymarket >99%. Our figure is their average.
South Dakota Senate winner?
Mike Rounds (R) is the favorite at 93%, averaging Kalshi (92%) and Polymarket (94%). Kalshi traders make Mike Rounds the favorite at 92%, ahead of Brian Bengs at 7.5%. Polymarket traders make Mike Rounds (R) the favorite at 94%, ahead of Brian Bengs (I) at 5.2%.
Average of Kalshi (92%) and Polymarket (94%)
Average of Kalshi (7.5%) and Polymarket (5.2%)
Kalshi: $216 (95%) · Polymarket: $12 (5%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 8:18 AM and 9:59 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Brian Bengs (I): Kalshi 7.5% and Polymarket 5.2%. Our figure is their average.
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi traders make James Talarico the favorite at 64%, ahead of Ken Paxton at 36%.
About 2 in 3
About 1 in 3
Most traded: James Talarico ($106K)
11:00 AM ET
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:58 AM and 9:59 AM ET.
West Virginia Senate winner?
Shelley Moore Capito (R) is the favorite at 98%, averaging Kalshi (98%) and Polymarket (99%). Kalshi traders make Shelley Moore Capito the favorite at 98%, ahead of Rachel Fetty Anderson at 2.5%. Polymarket traders make Shelley Moore Capito (R) the favorite at 99%, ahead of Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) at 1%.
Average of Kalshi (98%) and Polymarket (99%)
Average of Kalshi (2.5%) and Polymarket (1%)
Nothing traded in the last 24 hours
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 8:18 AM and 9:34 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Rachel Fetty Anderson (D): Kalshi 2.5% and Polymarket 1%. Our figure is their average.
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket traders make Pete Ricketts (R) the favorite at 73%, ahead of Independent at 28%.
About 7 in 10
About 1 in 4
Most traded: Pete Ricketts (R) ($286)
Open Chance is Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:32 AM and 9:59 AM ET.
Oklahoma Senate Election Winner
Polymarket traders make Kevin Hern (R) the favorite at 98%, ahead of N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D) at 1.4%.
About 49 in 50
About 1 in 74
Most traded: Kevin Hern (R) ($29)
Open Chance is Polymarket's displayed price. Source: Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 4, 9:32 AM ET.
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2026 Senate races at a glance
- Seats up for election: 35, including the Florida and Ohio special elections.
- Current Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats.
- Senate control: The Democratic side needs a net gain of four seats to reach 51.
- What you can trade: Individual Senate winners, Senate control and other Senate outcomes where supported.
- Where our odds come from: We show prices from the prediction markets we track rather than creating our own election forecast.
The board is designed to put the entire Senate market in one place. Some races already have millions of dollars traded, while others are considerably thinner. Kalshi's current Senate board, for example, shows more than $13 million in Texas volume, about $5.6 million in Maine, $3.7 million in Michigan and $3.5 million in Ohio.
Which Senate races are moving?
Checking 35 individual races makes it hard to see where traders are most active. This table ranks the 10 states with the most total trading volume on Kalshi, so higher-interest races rise above thin markets even when a low-volume contract posts a large price change.
The Rank column is determined by total Kalshi trading volume for each race. Most Likely uses Kalshi's current midpoint, Daily move compares that midpoint with Kalshi's previous reported price and 24h volume shows recent Kalshi trading activity.
This is a discovery tool, not a race rating. States move into and out of the top 10 as Kalshi trading volume changes; readers can then use the full race cards above to compare the underlying venue prices.
The percentage on a card is the price now, not a permanent prediction.
Texas went from effectively even on Kalshi in early September to Talarico at 54% ten days later and has since moved farther. Ohio has also changed sides during the cycle, while other Senate markets have barely moved at all.
Polling can be part of those moves, but a prediction-market price isn't the same thing as a poll. A poll measures responses from a defined sample of voters at a particular time. A market price reflects where participants are currently willing to buy and sell a contract tied to the final result.
Candidate news, polling, fundraising, endorsements and trading activity itself can all coincide with price changes. The useful number for this page is still the live market price, which is why the cards should update without requiring us to rewrite the article every time a race moves.
How the Senate races connect to control
You can trade Michigan, Texas, Maine or Ohio as individual elections, but those results eventually add up to the same question: which party controls the Senate.
The Democratic side starts from 47 seats and needs to reach 51. That's why traders keep talking about a path to 51 and looking at combinations of races rather than one state in isolation. Kalshi's current midterms board has North Carolina firmly on the Democratic side of its market pricing, Michigan, Maine and Alaska closer, Texas and Ohio nearer the middle, and Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska on the Republican side. Those are market prices at a point in time, not our race ratings.
Losing one potential pickup changes the importance of the others. A trader looking at the chamber can therefore move between North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska and other states trying to work out which combinations get either side to the final number.
You also can't simply count the party favored in each state and assume that should equal the Senate-control probability. Being favored separately in several close races does not mean a party will win all of those races simultaneously.
If you want to trade the national outcome rather than an individual state, Senate-control markets compare the Democratic and Republican control outcomes and bring the races together at the chamber level.
What happens with a 50-50 Senate?
Getting from 47 Democratic-aligned seats to 50 would be a three-seat net gain, but under the current vice presidency it would not give Democrats Senate control. The Constitution gives the vice president a vote when the Senate is equally divided, and Vice President JD Vance has already cast tie-breaking Senate votes during the current Congress.
That makes 51 seats the relevant Democratic threshold for the 2026 control calculation.
Keep that separate from the individual winner markets above. If you buy an El-Sayed contract in Michigan or a Talarico contract in Texas, the trade is about who wins that particular election under the contract's rules. Whether that result ultimately changes control of the Senate is a separate question.
How to use our Senate oddsboard
Each card represents a Senate election. Search for a state or candidate, see the outcomes currently available and compare the prices we can match across Kalshi, Polymarket and other supported markets.
Each venue's displayed price is shown separately. That doesn't mean we think that candidate is the better political choice or that the outcome is more likely than the market says. We keep the individual exchange prices visible because two markets can disagree, sometimes by several points.
Volume gives you some context for the price as well. A heavily traded race can have more orders available around the displayed price, while a thinner Senate market can move much more sharply when a larger order comes through.
If a race has more candidates than we can reasonably fit onto one card, use Show all outcomes to open the rest of the market.
Why the same Senate race can have different odds
There isn't one official prediction-market price for a Senate candidate. Kalshi and Polymarket have separate participants, liquidity and order books, so the same outcome can trade at different prices at the same time.
Texas shows this clearly. As of this update, Kalshi has Democrat James Talarico at 58% and Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, while Polymarket has Talarico around 60 cents and Paxton around 42 cents. Kalshi reports about $13.2 million in volume on the race, compared with roughly $1.34 million on Polymarket's market.
Those gaps can change quickly. Talarico and Paxton were priced at 50-50 on Kalshi on September 5; by September 15, Kalshi had Talarico at 54%. The current market has since moved again.
We don't average those numbers into a single DeFi Rate forecast. The point of the card is to let you see where each underlying market is trading before you decide which one to open.
How to bet on a Senate race
Michigan gives us a real example. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are trading for the open Senate seat, with Kalshi currently showing El-Sayed around 65% and Rogers around 35%. Polymarket has the same race at roughly 66 cents for El-Sayed and 36 cents for Rogers.
If you bought 100 El-Sayed contracts at 65 cents on a market where a correct contract settles at $1, the position would cost $65 before applicable fees. If El-Sayed wins and the contracts settle at $1 each, the position is worth $100, leaving a $35 difference before fees. If Rogers wins instead, those El-Sayed contracts settle at $0.
You don't necessarily have to hold the position until November. If you entered at 65 cents and the available selling price later moved to 74 cents, you could try to sell the position before Election Day. How much you can actually sell at 74 cents depends on the orders available at that price.
The live card should always be used when you're ready to trade. The Michigan prices above are a working example based on the market at the time of this update; these contracts can move throughout the day.
Read the market rules before putting money down
The candidate names can look identical across exchanges while the underlying contracts still use different wording or settlement procedures. Open the actual market before placing a trade and check the result being measured, the resolution source and any provisions covering a runoff.
Polymarket's Michigan market, for example, says it resolves according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election and explicitly includes any runoffs. Its Texas market contains the same runoff provision for that election.
That also means a television network calling a Senate race isn't necessarily the moment your position settles. The contract resolves according to the exchange's written rules and specified result.
Platform availability can vary by location and product. Our prediction market legal tracker follows current federal and state cases and rules.
2026 Senate election FAQs
- Where can I bet on 2026 Senate races?
Kalshi and Polymarket have markets on individual 2026 Senate elections, with the exact races and products differing by platform. Polymarket US also currently lists midterm political markets, including its U.S. Senate Midterm Winner market and a Texas Senate winner market.
- Are all 35 Senate races available to bet on?
There are 35 Senate elections on the 2026 ballot, but that doesn't mean every exchange will have a liquid winner market for every state at all times. Our board can still show the full Senate slate and display live prices where a supported prediction market is available.
- What does 65% mean on a Senate race?
A candidate trading around 65 cents can generally be read as the market pricing that outcome at roughly a 65% probability. It doesn't mean 65% of voters support that candidate, and it should not be read as a polling percentage.
- Why are Kalshi and Polymarket Senate odds different?
They are separate markets with different traders, available orders and liquidity. The same candidate can therefore be priced differently at the same time, as the current Texas and Michigan markets demonstrate.
- Can I sell a Senate position before Election Day?
Prediction-market positions can generally be sold before settlement when there is sufficient liquidity on the other side. The available price may be higher or lower than what you originally paid, and a large position may not all fill at the first displayed price.
- How many Senate seats do Democrats need in 2026?
Democrats currently hold 45 seats and two independents caucus with them, putting the Democratic-aligned side at 47. A net gain of four gets that side to 51.
- Does a 50-50 Senate give Democrats control?
Not under the current vice presidency. The vice president can break tied Senate votes, and JD Vance is the current Republican vice president. That makes 51 the Democratic threshold for control in the current 2026 setup.
- What happens if a Senate election goes to a runoff?
It depends on the individual contract. Some markets explicitly include a later runoff in determining the winner; Polymarket's current Michigan and Texas Senate contracts both do. Check the rules of the market you're trading before placing the position.
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