Jets vs. Bears Week 4 Odds & PredictionsThe Bears are a 64% favorite at home against the Jets
New York Jets at Chicago Bears, Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. Prediction markets give the Bears a 64% chance to win (−174) and the Jets 36% (+177). Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket agree within a point. Kalshi's lines make it Bears −3.5, with 43.5 total points. The Bears are up 3 points this week on Kalshi. $213K has traded on the game in the last 24 hours.
About 2 in 3 (−174)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $156 if correct, before fees.
About 2 in 5 (+177)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $277 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
Jets vs. Bears moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago BearsHome · −174 | 64% $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $156 | Kalshi64¢ | Polymarket US63.7¢Lowest ask | Polymarket64¢ | |
| New York JetsAway · +177 | 36% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $277 | Kalshi36¢Lowest ask | Polymarket US36.5¢ | Polymarket37¢ |
Best prices to buy: Chicago at 63.7¢ on Polymarket US; the Jets at 36¢ on Kalshi. Buying both costs 99.8¢ and pays $1 whichever team wins: 0.25¢ locked in, before fees. Traded in the past 24 hours: $128K on Kalshi, $58K on Polymarket and $26K on Polymarket US.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 4, 10:38 AM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Chicago gained 3 points, to 64%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 22 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Jets vs. Bears spread and over/under
Kalshi prices a ladder of margins and totals. The highlighted row is closest to a coin flip.
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2+ pts | 61% | −153 |
| 3+ pts | 59% | −141 |
| 4+ pts | 50% | +102 |
| 5+ pts | 47% | +115 |
| 6+ pts | 45% | +125 |
All 25 spread lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Jets 2+ pts | 35% | +190 |
| Jets 3+ pts | 33% | +208 |
| Jets 4+ pts | 26% | +292 |
| Jets 5+ pts | 24% | +326 |
| Jets 6+ pts | 22% | +365 |
| Jets 7+ pts | 19% | +441 |
| Jets 8+ pts | 16% | +545 |
| Jets 10+ pts | 13% | +700 |
| Jets 11+ pts | 11% | +852 |
| Jets 14+ pts | 8.5% | +1076 |
| Jets 15+ pts | 6.5% | +1438 |
| Bears 2+ pts | 61% | −153 |
| Bears 3+ pts | 59% | −141 |
| Bears 4+ pts | 50% | +102 |
| Bears 5+ pts | 47% | +115 |
| Bears 6+ pts | 45% | +125 |
| Bears 7+ pts | 42% | +141 |
| Bears 8+ pts | 35% | +190 |
| Bears 10+ pts | 31% | +228 |
| Bears 11+ pts | 28% | +264 |
| Bears 14+ pts | 23% | +344 |
| Bears 15+ pts | 19% | +441 |
| Bears 17+ pts | 17% | +506 |
| Bears 18+ pts | 14% | +641 |
| Bears 21+ pts | 11% | +852 |
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 41.5 | 55% | −120 |
| 42.5 | 53% | −111 |
| 43.5 | 49% | +106 |
| 44.5 | 45% | +125 |
| 45.5 | 42% | +141 |
All 19 total lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 21.5 | 97% | −2757 |
| 24.5 | 93% | −1233 |
| 27.5 | 90% | −852 |
| 30.5 | 84% | −506 |
| 33.5 | 78% | −344 |
| 36.5 | 71% | −239 |
| 39.5 | 62% | −160 |
| 40.5 | 59% | −141 |
| 41.5 | 55% | −120 |
| 42.5 | 53% | −111 |
| 43.5 | 49% | +106 |
| 44.5 | 45% | +125 |
| 45.5 | 42% | +141 |
| 48.5 | 34% | +199 |
| 51.5 | 25% | +308 |
| 54.5 | 20% | +413 |
| 57.5 | 14% | +641 |
| 60.5 | 9.5% | +953 |
| 63.5 | 6.5% | +1438 |
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 10:28 AM and 10:38 AM ET.
Jets vs. Bears stats
These figures cover the 2026 regular season through Week 2. The table compares each team’s record and per-game averages side by side.
| Team stat | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Points per game | 20 | 31 |
| Total yards per game | 326 | 424.5 |
| Passing yards per game | 231 | 230.5 |
| Rushing yards per game | 109.5 | 212.5 |
| First downs per game | 20 | 21.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.3% | 51.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate | 66.7% | 57.1% |
| Turnover differential | +2 | 0 |
| Sacks per game | 3 | 2.5 |
| Time of possession | 38:13 | 33:22 |
Stat leaders: Jets — passing, Geno Smith (46/65, 462 YDS, 1 TD); rushing, Breece Hall (38 CAR, 131 YDS, 1 TD); receiving, Garrett Wilson (11 REC, 136 YDS, 1 TD); Bears — passing, Caleb Williams (36/55, 407 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT); rushing, D’Andre Swift (34 CAR, 169 YDS, 3 TD); receiving, Kalif Raymond (13 REC, 124 YDS).
Source: ESPN team statistics. 2026 regular-season averages and leaders through Week 2; the section is refreshed as each week is completed.
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