Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 4 Odds & PredictionsThe Chiefs are a 67% favorite on the road against the Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. Prediction markets give the Chiefs a 67% chance to win (−200) and the Raiders 33% (+200). Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket agree within a point. Kalshi's lines make it Chiefs −4.5, with 47.5 total points. The Chiefs are down 1 point this week on Kalshi. $576K has traded on the game in the last 24 hours.
About 2 in 3 (−200)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $149 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 3 (+200)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $300 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
Chiefs vs. Raiders moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City ChiefsAway · −200 | 67% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $149 | Kalshi67¢ | Polymarket US67¢ | Polymarket67¢ | |
| Las Vegas RaidersHome · +200 | 33% $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $300 | Kalshi34¢ | Polymarket US33.3¢Lowest ask | Polymarket34¢ |
Best prices to buy: Kansas City at 67¢ on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket; Las Vegas at 33.3¢ on Polymarket US. Buying both costs $1.002 for a $1 payout, so there's no arbitrage. Traded in the past 24 hours: $424K on Kalshi, $88K on Polymarket US and $64K on Polymarket.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 4, 9:51 AM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Kansas City lost 1 point, to 67%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 22 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Chiefs vs. Raiders spread and over/under
Kalshi prices a ladder of margins and totals. The highlighted row is closest to a coin flip.
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 3+ pts | 63% | −167 |
| 4+ pts | 55% | −120 |
| 5+ pts | 51% | −102 |
| 6+ pts | 48% | +111 |
| 7+ pts | 45% | +125 |
All 25 spread lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs 2+ pts | 64% | −174 |
| Chiefs 3+ pts | 63% | −167 |
| Chiefs 4+ pts | 55% | −120 |
| Chiefs 5+ pts | 51% | −102 |
| Chiefs 6+ pts | 48% | +111 |
| Chiefs 7+ pts | 45% | +125 |
| Chiefs 8+ pts | 38% | +167 |
| Chiefs 10+ pts | 34% | +199 |
| Chiefs 11+ pts | 30% | +239 |
| Chiefs 14+ pts | 26% | +292 |
| Chiefs 15+ pts | 21% | +388 |
| Chiefs 17+ pts | 18% | +471 |
| Chiefs 18+ pts | 16% | +545 |
| Chiefs 21+ pts | 13% | +700 |
| Raiders 2+ pts | 31% | +228 |
| Raiders 3+ pts | 28% | +264 |
| Raiders 4+ pts | 22% | +365 |
| Raiders 5+ pts | 20% | +413 |
| Raiders 6+ pts | 19% | +441 |
| Raiders 7+ pts | 17% | +506 |
| Raiders 8+ pts | 13% | +700 |
| Raiders 10+ pts | 11% | +852 |
| Raiders 11+ pts | 8.5% | +1076 |
| Raiders 14+ pts | 6.5% | +1438 |
| Raiders 15+ pts | 5.5% | +1718 |
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 45.5 | 58% | −135 |
| 46.5 | 55% | −120 |
| 47.5 | 51% | −102 |
| 48.5 | 48% | +111 |
| 49.5 | 45% | +125 |
All 19 total lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 25.5 | 97% | −2757 |
| 28.5 | 94% | −1438 |
| 31.5 | 91% | −953 |
| 34.5 | 86% | −590 |
| 37.5 | 79% | −376 |
| 40.5 | 73% | −264 |
| 43.5 | 63% | −167 |
| 44.5 | 61% | −153 |
| 45.5 | 58% | −135 |
| 46.5 | 55% | −120 |
| 47.5 | 51% | −102 |
| 48.5 | 48% | +111 |
| 49.5 | 45% | +125 |
| 52.5 | 36% | +182 |
| 55.5 | 29% | +251 |
| 58.5 | 22% | +365 |
| 61.5 | 16% | +545 |
| 64.5 | 12% | +770 |
| 67.5 | 7.5% | +1233 |
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:29 AM and 9:52 AM ET.
Chiefs vs. Raiders stats
These figures cover the 2026 regular season through Week 2. The table compares each team’s record and per-game averages side by side.
| Team stat | Chiefs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Points per game | 32 | 26.5 |
| Total yards per game | 457.5 | 297.5 |
| Passing yards per game | 283 | 206.5 |
| Rushing yards per game | 186 | 93.5 |
| First downs per game | 24 | 17.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 46.7% | 33.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate | 60.0% | 71.4% |
| Turnover differential | +2 | +2 |
| Sacks per game | 2 | 4 |
| Time of possession | 35:21 | 31:18 |
Stat leaders: Chiefs — passing, Patrick Mahomes (47/74, 566 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT); rushing, Kenneth Walker III (47 CAR, 290 YDS, 1 TD); receiving, Travis Kelce (12 REC, 172 YDS, 1 TD); Raiders — passing, Kirk Cousins (40/59, 413 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT); rushing, Ashton Jeanty (44 CAR, 150 YDS); receiving, Tre Tucker (7 REC, 146 YDS, 1 TD).
Source: ESPN team statistics. 2026 regular-season averages and leaders through Week 2; the section is refreshed as each week is completed.
Free Bracket Pool – Live Game or Printable
Build a free 2026 NFL Pick’em pool with no sign-up required. Invite friends, colleagues and share on social. We keep track and do the work for you. You can also opt for a paper copy with our printable NFL schedules.
Kalshi promo code RATE: Score a $25 Bonus for Lions vs. Panthers SNF
Kalshi Promo Code RATE: Get $25 for No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 14 Iowa
NFL London game prediction markets: Colts vs. Commanders picks, props with Kalshi promo code RATE
Kalshi Promo Code RATE: Get a $25 Bonus for Miami vs. Clemson Primetime Showdown