65%Up
Target $82,454, window closes 3:30 AM ET.
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi Down at the ask pays $277 if correct, before fees.
15-Minute Bitcoin Predictions A quarter of all prediction-market trading is crypto, mostly 15-minute Bitcoin bets
Will Bitcoin be up in 15 minutes? Live odds for 9 assets, the price to buy each side, and how these markets settle.
Live board
Every 15-minute market, window closing 3:30 AM ET
Kalshi’s chance each asset finishes the window above its target, and its price to buy Up or Down.
Kalshi prices to buy for the current window. Tap one to open that market.
| Asset | Chance up | Buy Up | Buy Down | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitcoinBTC · target $82,454 · Polymarket US 64% · Polymarket 51% | 65% $100 on Down at the ask pays $277 | Up65¢ | Down36¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| EthereumETH · target $2,496 · Polymarket 71% | 83% $100 on Down at the ask pays $555 | Up83¢ | Down18¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| XRPXRP · target $1.40 · Polymarket 69% | 83% $100 on Down at the ask pays $555 | Up83¢ | Down18¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| DogecoinDOGE · target $0.0853 · Polymarket 63% | 70% $100 on Down at the ask pays $322 | Up70¢ | Down31¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| SolanaSOL · target $110.24 · Polymarket 63% | 86% $100 on Down at the ask pays $666 | Up86¢ | Down15¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| NEARNEAR · target $4.86 | 61% $100 on Down at the ask pays $250 | Up61¢ | Down40¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| HyperliquidHYPE · target $85.66 · Polymarket 58% | 87% $100 on Down at the ask pays $714 | Up87¢ | Down14¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| ZcashZEC · target $1,225 | 65% $100 on Down at the ask pays $277 | Up65¢ | Down36¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| BNBBNB · target $742.26 · Polymarket 51% | 84% $100 on Down at the ask pays $588 | Up84¢ | Down17¢ | Sources & contracts› |
Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, and Polymarket public market data, observed Oct 9, 3:20 AM ET.
Bitcoin on Polymarket USWindow closing 3:30 AM ET
64% chance Bitcoin finishes the window up, on Polymarket US’s own 15-minute market.
Polymarket US settles on CF Benchmarks’ Bitcoin index: Up if the price at the window’s end is at or above its price at the start. Kalshi’s market sets its own target, so the two chances can differ and aren’t averaged. Polymarket US lists Bitcoin only for now. Source: Polymarket US.
Read before you trade
Why the venues disagree, and what else is trading
Bitcoin: Kalshi 65% up, Polymarket 51%
- Why
- Different target prices and settlement sources
- Liquidity
- Polymarket’s book is far thinner, so its price can lag the move
This is why we never average the two for crypto.
BNB: Kalshi 84% up, Polymarket 51%
The widest gap on the board. On thin markets a single order moves the price; check both targets before trading.
Above the target isn’t always a win
Kalshi settles on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index, which averages many exchanges, so Bitcoin can look up on one exchange and still settle down.
Longer-dated crypto marketsmidpoint
| Market | Venue | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET? | Kalshi | 3% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 7% |
| Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026? | Kalshi | 11% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11? | Polymarket | 20% |
Trading detail
Compare prices
Each venue’s price for the market you pick, what your order would pay, and the estimated fee.
Bitcoin up in 15 minutes, all venues
Pick a market and an amount
| Venue | Price | 24h traded | Est. fee | Payout if correct | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi15-minute contract | 65¢Price to buy | – | $2.44 | $153before fees | Kalshi65¢ |
| PolymarketDifferent target price | 50.5¢Last trade | – | n/a | $198before fees | Polymarket50.5¢ |
Polymarket’s market uses a different target price and settlement source, so it isn’t marked as comparable.
“Price to buy” is the venue’s current ask; “last trade” is the most recent trade and may not be available now. We don’t yet measure how many contracts are available at a price, so large orders may fill higher. Est. fee uses Kalshi’s published taker-fee formula, per contract in a bundle; other venues’ fees aren’t in our feed. DeFi Rate may earn a commission when you open an account through these links. 18+ (21+ in some states).
Explanation
How 15-minute crypto markets work
Compare 15-minute crypto prediction markets in real-time
Track Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies as traders predict where crypto prices will finish over the next fifteen minutes. DeFi Rate compares live markets from Kalshi and Polymarket Global, showing the target price, the current price, platform odds, trading volume and the exact time remaining until settlement.
Unlike traditional crypto trading, where investors buy and sell the underlying asset, 15-minute prediction markets revolve around a single question:
Will Bitcoin finish above or below a specific price when the market closes?
Every fifteen minutes, a new set of contracts opens, creating market opportunities to trade on BTC, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and other cryptocurrencies.
Why can BTC be above the target price and still lose?
One of the biggest misconceptions about prediction markets is that the current price guarantees the result.
Imagine Bitcoin is trading at $64,354, while the target price is $64,260 and there are eight minutes remaining until settlement.
Although Bitcoin is currently above the target, traders still need to decide where the price will finish when the market closes. If Kalshi shows a 76% probability, that means traders believe there is still a 24% chance Bitcoin could fall below the target before expiration.
The closer the market gets to settlement, the more sensitive those probabilities become. A sudden sell-off, a large liquidation or breaking news can change the odds in seconds.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree?
They look like the same question, but they aren’t the same contract. Each venue sets its own target price at the start of the window and settles on its own price source: Kalshi uses the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index, while Polymarket uses its own reference. A coin can finish above one target and below the other.
Liquidity differs too. Polymarket’s 15-minute books are far thinner than Kalshi’s, so a single order can move its price. That’s why this page shows Polymarket’s numbers for reference and never averages them with Kalshi’s.
How settlement works
Crypto contracts do not settle based on the number you happen to see on Coinbase or Binance in the final seconds.
Kalshi settles its 15-minute markets using the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI), which aggregates prices from multiple exchanges rather than relying on a single source.
That means there may be moments when one exchange shows BTC above the target price while the official benchmark settles below it.
Understanding how settlement works is important because the benchmark price, not the price on an individual exchange, determines the final outcome of the contract.
What moves crypto prices in fifteen minutes?
Short-term crypto markets can react to almost anything, but a few events consistently drive volatility:
- Federal Reserve decisions and economic reports
- Exchange outages and technical issues
- ETF announcements
- Large liquidations
- Sudden spikes in trading volume
- Crypto news
- Sharp moves in equity markets
Because these contracts settle every fifteen minutes, even small price swings can dramatically change the odds.
Methodology
The chance shown is Kalshi’s midpoint for “up” in the current 15-minute window when its bid and ask were read in the last minute, otherwise its last trade in the window; buttons show Kalshi’s price to buy Up or Down only while that book is current. Polymarket runs similar markets, but with its own target price and settlement source, so its numbers are shown for reference and never averaged with Kalshi’s.
Full methodology
PricesThe chance is Kalshi’s bid/ask midpoint when the book was read in the last minute, otherwise its last trade in the window; buttons show Kalshi’s price to buy Up or Down only while the book is that fresh.
AveragesNothing is averaged on this page. Kalshi and Polymarket run 15-minute markets with different target prices and settlement sources, so Polymarket is shown for reference only.
Timestamps“Data observed” is when prices were read; “Updated” is when an editor last changed the text.
Stale quotesIn a 15-minute market a quote more than a minute old is labeled stale and never offered as a price to buy. A window that has closed shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it.
Activity, not depth24-hour dollars traded is recent activity, not how much you can buy at a price.
Data and sources
- Source records for every number on this page: contracts, quote types, calculations and history
- DeFi Rate prediction-market methodology: how we price, average and label every figure
- Permanent snapshot, Oct 9, 3:20 AM ET: a frozen copy for citation
- 15-minute markets, window closing 3:30 AM ET (CSV)
- Every figure and contract on this page (CSV)
Questions
What is a 15-minute crypto prediction market?
A contract that asks whether a coin like Bitcoin will finish a 15-minute window above a target price. The winning side pays $1, and a new window opens every 15 minutes.
Why can Bitcoin be above the target and still lose?
Kalshi settles on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index, which averages many exchanges, not the price on one exchange. A small gap between exchanges can decide a close window.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They set different target prices and settle on different sources, and Polymarket’s crypto books are much thinner. That’s why we never average them.
How much is traded on crypto prediction markets?
About $181 million in the 24 hours to Oct 9, 2026, roughly 24% of all prediction-market volume.
About the authors
Christopher Feery has written professionally since 2014 and has covered the gambling industry full time since New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018.
Cheryle Shepstone is DeFi Rate’s Director of Content and Strategy and oversees its prediction-market research, platform reviews and editorial methodology.
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