2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee OddsAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff are level at 16%
Kalshi has Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14% and Polymarket at 18%. Over the past week on Kalshi, Jon Ossoff and Kamala Harris gained the most, 1 point each.
About 1 in 6Unchanged this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (14%) and Polymarket (18%).
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $714 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 6 Up 1 pt this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (17%) and Polymarket (15%).
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $666 if correct, before fees.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Kalshi: $171K (80%) · Polymarket: $43K (20%)
Kalshi: Nov 7, 2028 · Polymarket: Nov 7, 2028
Prices to buy each outcome, or the last trade where no one is selling. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Polymarket.
| Outcome | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16% | Kalshi14¢Lowest ask | Polymarket18¢ | ||
| Jon Ossoff | 16% | Kalshi17¢ | Polymarket15¢Lowest ask | ||
| Gavin Newsom | 15% | Kalshi14¢Lowest ask | Polymarket16¢ | ||
| Kamala Harris | 7.7% | Kalshi8.6¢ | Polymarket7¢ | ||
| Josh Shapiro | 5.3% | Kalshi4.7¢Lowest ask | Polymarket6¢ | ||
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.1% | Kalshi5.1¢ | Polymarket5.1¢ | ||
| Andy Beshear | 4.3% | Kalshi5.7¢ | Polymarket2.8¢ | ||
| Mark Kelly | 3.4% | Kalshi4.2¢ | Polymarket2.7¢ | ||
| James Talarico | 2.9% | Kalshi3¢Lowest ask | Polymarket3.1¢ | ||
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.3% | Kalshi3.1¢ | Polymarket1.8¢ | ||
| Wes Moore | 2.2% | Kalshi2.3¢ | Polymarket2.1¢Lowest ask | ||
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.7% | Kalshi2.1¢ | Polymarket1.3¢ | ||
| Ro Khanna | 1.7% | Kalshi1.9¢ | Polymarket1.5¢Lowest ask | ||
| Michelle Obama | 1.1% | Kalshi2¢ | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed | 1% | Kalshi1¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Shawn Fain | 1% | Kalshi1¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Jon Stewart | 0.8% | Kalshi0.50¢ | Polymarket1.3¢ | ||
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.7% | Kalshi0.60¢Lowest ask | Polymarket1¢ | ||
| Raphael Warnock | 0.7% | Kalshi0.90¢ | Polymarket0.60¢Lowest ask | ||
| Cory Booker | 0.7% | Kalshi0.80¢ | Polymarket0.60¢ | ||
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.7% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.90¢ | ||
| Bernie Sanders | 0.6% | Kalshi0.40¢ | Polymarket0.90¢ | ||
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 0.6% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket1.1¢ | ||
| Chris Van Hollen | 0.6% | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.20¢Lowest ask | ||
| Mitch Landrieu | 0.6% | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.20¢Lowest ask | ||
| Mark Cuban | 0.5% | Kalshi0.70¢ | Polymarket0.35¢ | ||
| Chris Murphy | 0.5% | Kalshi0.60¢ | Polymarket0.40¢Lowest ask | ||
| Hunter Biden | 0.4% | Kalshi0.40¢Lowest ask | Polymarket0.50¢ | ||
| Roy Cooper | 0.3% | Kalshi0.40¢ | Polymarket0.40¢ | ||
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.3% | Kalshi0.50¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Ruben Gallego | 0.3% | Kalshi0.50¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.3% | Kalshi0.40¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Amy Klobuchar | 0.2% | Kalshi0.20¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Barack Obama | 0.2% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 0.2% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Jamie Dimon | 0.2% | Kalshi0.20¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.2% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Josh Stein | 0.2% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.2% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.2% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Gina Raimondo | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Jared Polis | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Phil Murphy | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Andrew Yang | 0.1% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Elizabeth Warren | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| John Fetterman | 0.1% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Beto O'Rourke | <0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Graham Platner | <0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Liz Cheney | <0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| LeBron James | <0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Tim Walz | <0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Kim Kardashian | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Adam Schiff | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| George Clooney | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| MrBeast | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Alex Padilla | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Oprah Winfrey | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 5, 6:08 PM and 10:32 PM ET.
The widest gap is on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Kalshi 14% and Polymarket 18%. Our figure is their average.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Jon Ossoff and Kamala Harris gained the most, 1 point each.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Aug 5 to Oct 5 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 5, 10:30 PM ET).
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