2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee OddsJon Ossoff narrowly leads Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 16% to 15%
Kalshi has Jon Ossoff at 17% and Polymarket at 15%. Over the past week on Kalshi, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez lost 1 point, to 14%.
About 1 in 6Unchanged this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (17%) and Polymarket (15%).
Prices to buy. Kalshi's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 9:52 AM ET) and may have moved.
About 1 in 7 Down 1 pt this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (14%) and Polymarket (17%).
Prices to buy. Kalshi's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 9:41 AM ET) and may have moved.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Kalshi: $287K (90%) · Polymarket: $30K (10%)
Kalshi: Nov 7, 2028 · Polymarket: Nov 7, 2028
Prices to buy each outcome, or the last trade where no one is selling. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Polymarket.
| Outcome | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 16% | Kalshi17¢ | Polymarket15.5¢ | ||
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 15% | Kalshi14¢ | Polymarket17.6¢ | ||
| Gavin Newsom | 15% | Kalshi14¢Lowest ask | Polymarket17¢ | ||
| Kamala Harris | 6.9% | Kalshi7.3¢ | Polymarket6.8¢ | ||
| Josh Shapiro | 5.2% | Kalshi4.7¢ | Polymarket5.9¢ | ||
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.1% | Kalshi5.1¢ | Polymarket5.1¢ | ||
| Andy Beshear | 4.3% | Kalshi6¢ | Polymarket3.3¢ | ||
| Mark Kelly | 3.4% | Kalshi4.3¢ | Polymarket2.7¢ | ||
| James Talarico | 3% | Kalshi3.4¢ | Polymarket2.6¢Lowest ask | ||
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.2% | Kalshi2.7¢ | Polymarket1.7¢ | ||
| Wes Moore | 2.2% | Kalshi2.3¢ | Polymarket2.1¢ | ||
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.7% | Kalshi2.2¢ | Polymarket1.3¢ | ||
| Ro Khanna | 1.6% | Kalshi1.9¢ | Polymarket1.5¢ | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed | 1% | Kalshi1¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Shawn Fain | 1% | Kalshi1¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Michelle Obama | 0.9% | Kalshi1.6¢ | Polymarket0.30¢ | ||
| Jon Stewart | 0.8% | Kalshi0.50¢ | Polymarket1.1¢ | ||
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.8% | Kalshi0.60¢ | Polymarket0.90¢ | ||
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.8% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.80¢ | ||
| Cory Booker | 0.7% | Kalshi0.80¢ | Polymarket0.70¢ | ||
| Raphael Warnock | 0.7% | Kalshi0.80¢ | Polymarket0.60¢ | ||
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 0.6% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket1.2¢ | ||
| Mark Cuban | 0.6% | Kalshi0.70¢ | Polymarket0.50¢ | ||
| Mitch Landrieu | 0.6% | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Bernie Sanders | 0.5% | Kalshi0.40¢ | Polymarket0.80¢ | ||
| Chris Murphy | 0.5% | Kalshi0.60¢ | Polymarket0.50¢ | ||
| Hunter Biden | 0.4% | Kalshi0.40¢ | Polymarket0.60¢ | ||
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.3% | Kalshi0.50¢ | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Ruben Gallego | 0.3% | Kalshi0.50¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Jamie Dimon | 0.3% | Kalshi0.30¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Roy Cooper | 0.3% | Kalshi0.40¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.3% | Kalshi0.40¢ | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Amy Klobuchar | 0.2% | Kalshi0.20¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Barack Obama | 0.2% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Chris Van Hollen | 0.2% | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 0.2% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.2% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Josh Stein | 0.2% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.2% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.2% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Gina Raimondo | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Jared Polis | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Phil Murphy | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Andrew Yang | 0.1% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Elizabeth Warren | 0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| John Fetterman | 0.1% | Kalshi0.20¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Beto O'Rourke | <0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Graham Platner | <0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Liz Cheney | <0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| LeBron James | <0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Tim Walz | <0.1% | Kalshi0.10¢ | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Kim Kardashian | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Adam Schiff | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| George Clooney | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| MrBeast | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Alex Padilla | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Oprah Winfrey | <0.1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 7:02 AM and 10:02 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Kalshi 14% and Polymarket 17%. Our figure is their average.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez lost 1 point, to 14%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Aug 3 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Little movement, last 7 days
Little movement in the last 7 days. The largest was Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, −1 pt to 14%.
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