Falcons vs. Saints Live Odds & Win ProbabilityThe Falcons are a 98% favorite on the road against the Saints
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, Monday, Oct 5. The game has kicked off, so these are in-game prices. Prediction markets give the Falcons a 98% chance to win (−5286) and the Saints 1.9% (+5286). Polymarket US is highest on the Falcons, at >99%, and Polymarket lowest, at 96%. Kalshi's lines make it Falcons −20.5, with 63.5 total points. The Falcons are up 56 points this week on Kalshi. $21M has traded on the game in the last 24 hours.
About 49 in 50 (−5286)
Kalshi shows a last trade; Polymarket US and Polymarket show a price to buy. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $104 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 54 (+5286)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $20,000 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 14 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
| NO | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
Markets give the Falcons 99%; ESPN’s model 100%. They agree.
1st 13:34: Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center…
On Kalshi and Polymarket US’s winner markets. The US venues agree within 0.8 pts.
Best price to buy
Fees included- Kalshi7% fee · bid 99¢–– + fee–per $100
- Polymarket US6.95% fee · bid 99.8¢–– + fee–per $100
- PolymarketOutside US5% fee · bid 99.9¢–– + fee–per $100
Ranked by price with each venue’s taker fee on one contract. Polymarket’s international site isn’t open to US traders, so it’s never marked best.
Markets’ projected final
From the spread & totalThe Falcons by 24.9 with 63.4 total points: the lines Kalshi’s spread and total markets price at even odds. Before the game: NO -1.5, total 48.5.
- 11:10PM US$75k on the Falcons at 99.8¢, $75k if they winATL
- Falcons drive1 play, 3 yards, 0:00
- Q4 8:2911:101st & 10 at NO 21Br.Robinson left guard to NO 18 for 3 yards (J.Ridgeway; T.Wilson).—99¢→99¢$88k traded100% ATLESPN 100% ATL
- Saints drive4 plays, -5 yards, 1:21Downs
- Q4 8:2911:07Official Timeout at 08:29.
- Q4 8:3311:064th & 6 at NO 30T.Shough sacked at NO 21 for -9 yards (S.Ebukam).—99¢→99¢$40k traded100% ATLESPN 100% ATL
- 11:06PM USATL
3 big bets · $50k all on the Falcons
- 11:06 · $13k on the Falcons at 99.5¢
- 11:06 · $19k on the Falcons at 99.5¢
- 11:06 · $19k on the Falcons at 99.5¢
- Q4 8:3311:064th & 1 at NO 35PENALTY on NO-A.Richards, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 35 - No Play.—99¢→99¢$22k traded99% ATLESPN 100% ATL
- Q4 9:0211:053rd & 7 at NO 29T.Shough pass short left to J.Johnson to NO 35 for 6 yards (X.Watts).—99¢→99¢$25k traded99% ATLESPN 100% ATL
- 11:05PM US$29k on the Falcons at 99.8¢, $29k if they winATL
- Q4 9:3911:042nd & 10 at NO 26T.Shough scrambles right end ran ob at NO 29 for 3 yards (H.Perkins).—99¢→99¢$45k traded100% ATLESPN 100% ATL
- Q4 9:4511:041st & 10 at NO 26T.Shough pass incomplete short right to J.Johnson (J.Bates).—99¢→99¢$35k traded100% ATLESPN 100% ATL
- 11:04PM US$19k on the Falcons at 99.5¢, $19k if they winATL
- Q4 9:5011:03N.Folk kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to NO 0. B.Brown to NO 26 for 26 yards (C.Blair).
- 11:03PM USATL
4 big bets · $149k all on the Falcons
- 11:03 · $37k on the Falcons at 99.5¢
- 11:02 · $37k on the Falcons at 99.5¢
- 11:01 · $19k on the Falcons at 99.5¢
- 11:01 · $56k on the Falcons at 99.5¢
- Falcons drive5 plays, 72 yards, 3:10TD
- Q4 9:5011:00Official Timeout at 09:50.
- 10:59PM US · KalshiATL
6 big bets · $249k all on the Falcons
- 10:59 · $36k on the Falcons at 99.5¢
- 10:59 · $14k on the Falcons at 99¢
- 10:59 · $50k on the Falcons at 99¢
- 10:59 · $50k on the Falcons at 99¢
- 10:59 · $50k on the Falcons at 99¢
- 10:59 · $50k on the Falcons at 99¢
- Q4 9:5010:591st & 10 at NO 31ATL 38–17M.Penix pass deep middle to J.Dotson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.ATL +2¢97¢→99¢$520k traded100% ATLESPN 100% ATL
- 10:59KalshiATL
8 big bets · $306k all on the Falcons
- 10:59 · $20k on the Falcons at 98¢
- 10:59 · $49k on the Falcons at 98¢
- 10:59 · $46k on the Falcons at 98¢
- 10:59 · $49k on the Falcons at 98¢
- 10:59 · $49k on the Falcons at 98¢
- 10:59 · $49k on the Falcons at 98¢
- 10:59 · $33k on the Falcons at 98¢
- 10:58 · $10k on the Falcons at 97¢
- Q4 10:4210:583rd & 2 at NO 36Bi.Robinson right end to NO 31 for 5 yards (J.Sanker; Q.Riley).—97¢→97¢$419k traded100% ATLESPN 98% ATL
- 10:58PM US$16k on the Falcons at 96.8¢, $16k if they winATL
- Q4 11:2710:582nd & 7 at NO 41Bi.Robinson left guard to NO 36 for 5 yards (P.Werner; J.Blackmon).—97¢→97¢$58k traded97% ATLESPN 98% ATL
- 10:57KalshiATL
2 big bets · $76k all on the Falcons
- 10:57 · $26k on the Falcons at 97¢
- 10:57 · $49k on the Falcons at 97¢
- Q4 12:0910:571st & 10 at NO 44Bi.Robinson left tackle to NO 41 for 3 yards (J.Reid).—97¢→97¢$150k traded99% ATLESPN 97% ATL
- Q4 12:5510:561st & 10 at ATL 28M.Penix pass short left to K.Pitts to NO 44 for 28 yards (J.Blackmon).ATL +1¢96¢→97¢$179k traded90% ATLESPN 97% ATL
- Q4 12:5510:54Official Timeout at 12:55.
- 10:53PM US · KalshiATL
3 big bets · $49k all on the Falcons
- 10:53 · $14k on the Falcons at 95.5¢
- 10:53 · $17k on the Falcons at 96¢
- 10:53 · $18k on the Falcons at 96¢
- Q4 13:0010:53D.Carlson kicks 62 yards from NO 35 to ATL 3. Z.Branch to ATL 28 for 25 yards (I.Stalbird).
- 10:50Kalshi$22k on the Falcons at 97¢, $22k if they winATL
- Saints drive13 plays, 68 yards, 4:11TD
- Q4 13:0010:50Official Timeout at 13:00.
- Q4 13:0010:493rd & 1 at ATL 5NO 31–17A.Kamara up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Adomitis, Holder-R.Wright.ATL −1¢98¢→97¢$21k traded93% ATLESPN 95% ATL
- Q4 13:2810:492nd & 10 at ATL 14T.Shough pass short left to D.Vele to ATL 5 for 9 yards (M.Hughes).ATL +1¢97¢→98¢$28k traded84% ATLESPN 96% ATL
- Q4 13:3310:481st & 10 at ATL 14T.Shough pass incomplete short right to J.Johnson (H.Perkins).ATL −1¢98¢→97¢$60k traded98% ATLESPN 98% ATL
- Q4 13:5910:474th & 1 at ATL 16A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (C.Thomas; B.Dorlus).—98¢→98¢$23k traded81% ATLESPN 97% ATL
- Q4 14:2810:473rd & 18 at ATL 33T.Shough pass deep right to D.Vele to ATL 16 for 17 yards (C.Henderson).ATL −1¢99¢→98¢$27k traded87% ATLESPN 98% ATL
- Q4 15:0010:462nd & 22 at ATL 37T.Shough pass short left to A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 33 for 4 yards (C.Henderson).ATL +1¢98¢→99¢$158k traded96% ATLESPN 98% ATL
Falcons vs. Saints moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team, or the last trade where no one is selling. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta FalconsAway · −5286 | 98% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $104 | Kalshi99¢ | Polymarket US99.8¢ | Polymarket96¢ | |
| New Orleans SaintsHome · +5286 | 1.9% $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $20,000 | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket US0.50¢Lowest ask | Polymarket4.4¢ |
Best prices to buy: Atlanta at 96¢ on Polymarket; New Orleans at 0.50¢ on Polymarket US. Buying both costs 96.5¢ and pays $1 whichever team wins: 3.5¢ locked in, before fees. Traded in the past 24 hours: $15M on Kalshi, $3.9M on Polymarket US and $2.3M on Polymarket.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: Kalshi's last trade; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 5, 10:58 PM and 11:01 PM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Atlanta gained 56 points, to 99%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 22 to Oct 4 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Falcons vs. Saints spread and over/under
Kalshi prices a ladder of margins and totals: tap a line's price to buy it. The line closest to a coin flip is tagged.
All 31 spread lines
All 21 total lines
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 5, 11:01 PM ET.
Week 4 games
Falcons vs. Saints stats
These figures cover the 2026 regular season through Week 2. The table compares each team’s record and per-game averages side by side.
| Team stat | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Points per game | 8 | 27 |
| Total yards per game | 262 | 383.5 |
| Passing yards per game | 144 | 331 |
| Rushing yards per game | 138.5 | 78 |
| First downs per game | 16.5 | 24 |
| Third-down conversion | 24.0% | 50.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate | 0.0% | 71.4% |
| Turnover differential | −6 | −1 |
| Sacks per game | 2 | 2 |
| Time of possession | 30:48 | 32:10 |
Stat leaders: Falcons — passing, Cooper Rush (22/39, 229 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT); rushing, Bijan Robinson (37 CAR, 155 YDS); receiving, Bijan Robinson (11 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD); Saints — passing, Tyler Shough (62/90, 662 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT); rushing, Travis Etienne Jr. (17 CAR, 71 YDS); receiving, Chris Olave (18 REC, 268 YDS, 1 TD).
Source: ESPN team statistics. 2026 regular-season averages and leaders through Week 2; the section is refreshed as each week is completed.
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