2027 Oscars Odds and Prediction MarketsThe Odyssey is the clear favorite at 52%

Recent Oscar news and how prediction markets moved

Listed latest first, the table pairs credible reporting with DeFi Rate’s tracking of Kalshi’s first-party hourly candlesticks. Completed entries measure movement from the last traded Yes price before the report’s UTC date to the last price available through roughly 48 hours later. For breaking developments, the table may show the preceding 24- or 48-hour move and identify it as early positioning. Thin trading can leave prices unchanged, and timing does not prove that a report caused the full move.

Date	Recent development	Tracked Kalshi movement	What happened
Sept. 3, 2026	Deadline reported that Wild Horse Nine received a rapturous welcome after its first Venice press screening.	Wild Horse Nine Best Picture nomination: 71% → 80.5% over the preceding 48 hours (79.5% → 80.5% over 24 hours); Martin McDonagh for Best Director: 2% → 6.5%	Most of the film’s nomination rise occurred before the press screening. The early reception supports its awards positioning, but the timing does not prove that reviews caused the move.
Sept. 3, 2026	Variety highlighted the developing Oscar conversation around John Malkovich following the Wild Horse Nine press screening.	John Malkovich for Best Actor: 21.5% → 18% over the preceding 48 hours	Malkovich’s actor market had not yet confirmed the positive coverage. The report was published shortly before the latest snapshot, leaving limited time for a measurable reaction.
Aug. 14, 2026	AwardsWatch’s pre-festival forecast kept Wild Horse Nine among the developing Best Picture contenders.	Wild Horse Nine Best Picture nomination: 73% → 71% (briefly 74%)	The nomination contract edged two points lower over the measurement window.
Aug. 10, 2026	Variety reported that Netflix was moving Here Comes the Flood toward a 2027 release, which would take it out of this Oscar cycle if the schedule holds.	No directly comparable contract in DeFi Rate’s tracked Kalshi feed	DeFi Rate did not assign movement in another film’s contract to this scheduling report.
July 22, 2026	Vanity Fair assessed The Odyssey as a new front-runner and estimated a potential 13 to 15 nominations.	The Odyssey Best Picture winner: 49% → 54% (briefly 55%)	The winner contract gained five points over the measurement window.

Latest Oscar nomination updates

The Oscar race is beginning to narrow now that the Venice Film Festival is underway and several previously unseen contenders are facing critics.

The Odyssey has made the clearest move. Christopher Nolan’s film arrived in theaters in July with the kind of reviews and commercial attention that can sustain a long awards campaign. Matt Damon is now firmly in the Best Actor discussion, while Nolan and the film are expected to contend in Best Picture, directing and several craft categories. Vanity Fair’s assessment of the film’s Oscar prospects put its potential haul as high as 13 to 15 nominations. Prediction markets draw a clear distinction between making the field and winning: at the latest Aug. 16 update, The Odyssey was priced at 94.1% to earn a Best Picture nomination and 57.3% to win Best Picture. Nolan stood at 66.0% for Best Director, while Damon was at 28.5% for Best Actor.

One expected contender, meanwhile, appears to have fallen off this year’s calendar. Netflix has moved Here Comes the Flood, starring Denzel Washington, Robert Pattinson and Daisy Edgar-Jones, toward a 2027 release, according to Variety. If that schedule holds, the film will miss this Oscar cycle and Washington will lose what had been one of his possible routes into the Best Actor field.

Venice has started to clarify the field. Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine received an enthusiastic early response after its Sept. 3 press screening, intensifying the awards conversation around McDonagh and John Malkovich. The film’s Best Picture nomination and McDonagh’s director markets had strengthened over the preceding 48 hours, although much of the film’s rise came before the screening and Malkovich’s actor price had not followed the positive coverage.

Opening-night film Ink also drew favorable notices and a reported five-minute ovation. Its Kalshi Best Picture nomination odds nevertheless finished slightly lower over the first 24 hours, an early reminder that positive festival reactions do not always produce an immediate market increase.

Pattinson has an unusually crowded awards season even without Here Comes the Flood. He appears in Primetime, The Drama, The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three, leaving open both lead and supporting possibilities. Primetime has begun its Venice publicity cycle, but its first meaningful critical reaction is still needed before treating it as another serious campaign.

The picture should become considerably clearer as Venice continues and Telluride and Toronto add more premieres. For now, The Odyssey remains the established benchmark, Wild Horse Nine has strengthened its early awards case, one anticipated Denzel Washington contender appears to be out, and much of the field still has to be tested.

How to bet on the Oscars

You don’t have to wait until Oscar night to trade on the awards. Prediction markets open months in advance, with prices moving as films premiere, reviews arrive, nominations are announced and other awards begin to establish the favorites.

Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini are among the best prediction apps where traders can follow entertainment and awards markets. Availability varies by platform and location, so the specific Oscar contracts you can trade will depend on what is currently listed.

Oscar contracts sit within the broader culture and entertainment prediction markets category. Similar markets cover television and reality competitions, including Big Brother.

The basic idea is pretty simple. Think of it like this: if a “Best Picture winner: Oppenheimer” contract is trading at 40 cents, the market is implying roughly a 40% chance that it wins. If you buy 100 of those contracts, you’re paying $40 in total. If Oppenheimer actually wins, each contract pays out $1, so your $40 turns into $100. If it doesn’t win, the contracts expire worthless and you lose your $40. You don’t have to wait until the Oscars either—you can sell your position anytime. So if the price jumps from 40 cents to 55 cents after a strong awards showing, your 100 contracts would now be worth $55, letting you sell early and lock in a $15 profit. Our prediction market fees and calculators can help you estimate trading costs and potential returns before placing a position.

Kalshi and Polymarket offer Oscar-related prediction markets that go well beyond simply picking the eventual Best Picture winner. Traders can take positions on who will be nominated for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Director and supporting categories, as well as eventual winners, with additional markets covering areas such as screenplay, cinematography, visual effects and original score. If you’re new to Kalshi, you can also check our Kalshi promo code article for any current sign-up offers and bonuses before getting started. You can also compare current offers on our prediction market promos page.

Polymarket’s Oscar markets similarly cover nominations and winners. It also lists broader questions, including which film will receive the most nominations. That creates opportunities to trade the race well before the Academy announces its nominees.

Gemini has also expanded into prediction markets, giving users another place to follow event contracts as its market catalog develops. No active 2027 Oscar contracts were listed when we checked on August 16, 2026, and availability can change, so check the current contracts before trading.

For nomination markets in particular, timing matters. A film trading at 35 cents before Venice could move sharply after its premiere, just as a delayed release, poor reviews or a category change can quickly send a candidate lower. The prices on this page track those changes as the Oscar race develops.