Patriots vs. Bills Week 4 Odds & PredictionsThe Bills are a 74% favorite at home against the Patriots
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. Prediction markets give the Bills a 74% chance to win (−279) and the Patriots 26% (+284). Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket agree within a point. Kalshi's lines make it Bills −6.5, with 49.5 total points. The Bills are down 2 points this week on Kalshi. $519K has traded on the game in the last 24 hours.
About 3 in 4 (−279)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $135 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 4 (+284)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $384 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
Patriots vs. Bills moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo BillsHome · −279 | 74% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $135 | Kalshi74¢ | Polymarket US74¢ | Polymarket74¢ | |
| New England PatriotsAway · +284 | 26% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $384 | Kalshi26¢Lowest ask | Polymarket US26.3¢ | Polymarket27¢ |
Best prices to buy: Buffalo at 74¢ on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket; New England at 26¢ on Kalshi. Buying both costs exactly the $1 payout: no arbitrage. Traded in the past 24 hours: $307K on Kalshi, $194K on Polymarket and $19K on Polymarket US.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 10:04 AM and 10:05 AM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Buffalo lost 2 points, to 74%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 22 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Patriots vs. Bills spread and over/under
Kalshi prices a ladder of margins and totals. The highlighted row is closest to a coin flip.
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 5+ pts | 59% | −141 |
| 6+ pts | 57% | −130 |
| 7+ pts | 53% | −111 |
| 8+ pts | 45% | +125 |
| 10+ pts | 41% | +147 |
All 27 spread lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Patriots 2+ pts | 24% | +326 |
| Patriots 3+ pts | 22% | +365 |
| Patriots 4+ pts | 17% | +506 |
| Patriots 5+ pts | 16% | +545 |
| Patriots 6+ pts | 14% | +641 |
| Patriots 7+ pts | 13% | +700 |
| Patriots 8+ pts | 9.5% | +953 |
| Patriots 10+ pts | 7.5% | +1233 |
| Patriots 11+ pts | 6.5% | +1438 |
| Patriots 14+ pts | 4.5% | +2122 |
| Patriots 15+ pts | 3.5% | +2757 |
| Bills 2+ pts | 72% | −251 |
| Bills 3+ pts | 70% | −228 |
| Bills 4+ pts | 62% | −160 |
| Bills 5+ pts | 59% | −141 |
| Bills 6+ pts | 57% | −130 |
| Bills 7+ pts | 53% | −111 |
| Bills 8+ pts | 45% | +125 |
| Bills 10+ pts | 41% | +147 |
| Bills 11+ pts | 37% | +174 |
| Bills 14+ pts | 31% | +228 |
| Bills 15+ pts | 27% | +277 |
| Bills 17+ pts | 24% | +326 |
| Bills 18+ pts | 21% | +388 |
| Bills 21+ pts | 17% | +506 |
| Bills 24+ pts | 12% | +770 |
| Bills 28+ pts | 7.5% | +1233 |
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 47.5 | 59% | −141 |
| 48.5 | 54% | −115 |
| 49.5 | 51% | −102 |
| 50.5 | 48% | +111 |
| 51.5 | 44% | +130 |
All 19 total lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 27.5 | 97% | −2757 |
| 30.5 | 94% | −1438 |
| 33.5 | 91% | −953 |
| 36.5 | 85% | −545 |
| 39.5 | 79% | −376 |
| 42.5 | 72% | −251 |
| 45.5 | 63% | −167 |
| 46.5 | 61% | −153 |
| 47.5 | 59% | −141 |
| 48.5 | 54% | −115 |
| 49.5 | 51% | −102 |
| 50.5 | 48% | +111 |
| 51.5 | 44% | +130 |
| 54.5 | 37% | +174 |
| 57.5 | 30% | +239 |
| 60.5 | 22% | +365 |
| 63.5 | 16% | +545 |
| 66.5 | 12% | +770 |
| 69.5 | 8.5% | +1076 |
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:58 AM and 10:05 AM ET.
Patriots vs. Bills stats
These figures cover the 2026 regular season through Week 2. The table compares each team’s record and per-game averages side by side.
| Team stat | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Points per game | 15 | 38.5 |
| Total yards per game | 302 | 427.5 |
| Passing yards per game | 193 | 291 |
| Rushing yards per game | 122.5 | 144.5 |
| First downs per game | 17 | 27 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.1% | 57.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate | 33.3% | 75.0% |
| Turnover differential | −3 | +2 |
| Sacks per game | 3 | 3.5 |
| Time of possession | 30:45 | 28:44 |
Stat leaders: Patriots — passing, Drake Maye (37/55, 386 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT); rushing, Rhamondre Stevenson (24 CAR, 94 YDS); receiving, Romeo Doubs (3 REC, 96 YDS); Bills — passing, Josh Allen (40/60, 582 YDS, 5 TD); rushing, James Cook III (34 CAR, 192 YDS, 1 TD); receiving, Dalton Kincaid (12 REC, 225 YDS, 1 TD).
Source: ESPN team statistics. 2026 regular-season averages and leaders through Week 2; the section is refreshed as each week is completed.
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