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NFL Prediction Markets The Rams lead the Super Bowl race, and Josh Allen leads for MVP

Every Week 5 game, the Super Bowl, both conferences, the awards and all eight divisions, with each venue’s price.

Super Bowl favorite
12%Los Angeles Rams

About 1 in 8Unchanged this week

Last trades; the price to buy may differ. At the last traded price, $100 would return $869 if correct, before fees.

MVP favorite
22%Josh Allen

About 1 in 5

Polymarket shows a last trade; Kalshi shows a price to buy. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $434 if correct, before fees.

Week 5

This week’s games

Kalshi prices for each side. Full Week 5 odds

Kalshi’s price for each side: its price to buy while the quote is fresh, else its displayed price. Tap one to open that game’s market.

NFL Week 5 moneyline odds, Oct 9, 2026
GameFavoriteAwayHomeSources
Eagles at JaguarsSun, Oct 11 · 9:30am ET77% JAC
$100 on PHI at the ask pays $416
PHI24¢JAC77¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Bears at PackersSun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET52% CHI
$100 on GB at the ask pays $204
CHI53¢GB49¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Bengals at DolphinsSun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET74% CIN
$100 on MIA at the ask pays $370
CIN75¢MIA27¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Browns at JetsSun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET56% NYJ
$100 on CLE at the ask pays $222
CLE45¢NYJ56¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Texans at TitansSun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET77% HOU
$100 on TEN at the ask pays $416
HOU77¢TEN24¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Colts at SteelersSun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET58% PIT
$100 on IND at the ask pays $238
IND42¢PIT59¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Raiders at PatriotsSun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET64% NE
$100 on LV at the ask pays $270
LV37¢NE64¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Vikings at SaintsSun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET56% MIN
$100 on NO at the ask pays $222
MIN57¢NO45¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›

Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate. Games observed 3:11 AM ET, the Super Bowl 3:11 AM ET, futures about 3:09 AM ET; each figure’s sources show when its quotes were last seen.

Futures

Super Bowl, conferences, awards and divisions

Pick a market. Our figure averages the venues that pass our consistency check; no quote fails it right now.

Kalshi’s last trade and Polymarket’s price to buy, from 3:11 AM ET; Polymarket US counts only with a current quote. Full detail on the Super Bowl page.

NFL Super Bowl odds, Oct 9, 2026
OutcomeChanceKalshiPolymarketPoly USGeminiSources
Los Angeles RamsNFC12%
At last trade, $100 returns $869
Kalshi11.5¢Polymarket12.5¢Poly US11.5¢Gemininot in feedSources & history›Sources & history›
Buffalo BillsAFC11%
At last trade, $100 returns $952
Kalshi10.5¢Polymarket12¢Poly US10.5¢Gemininot in feedSources›Sources›
San Francisco 49ersNFC10%
At last trade, $100 returns $1,052
Kalshi9.5¢Polymarket9.8¢Poly US10.5¢Gemininot in feedSources›Sources›
Kansas City ChiefsAFC10%
At last trade, $100 returns $1,052
Kalshi9.5¢Polymarket9.9¢Poly US9.5¢Gemininot in feedSources›Sources›
Seattle SeahawksNFC8%
$100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $1,250
Kalshi8.5¢Polymarket8¢Poly US8.5¢Gemininot in feedSources›Sources›
Baltimore RavensAFC7%
At last trade, $100 returns $1,538
Kalshi6.5¢Polymarket7.9¢Poly US7.5¢Gemininot in feedSources›Sources›
Jacksonville JaguarsAFC6%
$100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $1,694
Kalshi6.5¢Polymarket5.9¢Poly US6.5¢Gemininot in feedSources›Sources›
Chicago BearsNFC5%
At last trade, $100 returns $2,222
Kalshi4.5¢Polymarket5.7¢Poly US4.5¢Gemininot in feedSources›Sources›
Cincinnati BengalsAFC4%
At last trade, $100 returns $2,857
Kalshi3.5¢Polymarket3.8¢Poly US3.5¢Gemininot in feedSources›Sources›
Denver BroncosAFC3%
$100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $2,941
Kalshi3.5¢Polymarket3.4¢Poly US3.5¢Gemininot in feedSources›Sources›
Minnesota VikingsNFC3%
$100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $3,225
Kalshi3.5¢Polymarket3.1¢Poly US3.5¢Gemininot in feedSources›Sources›
New England PatriotsAFC3%
At last trade, $100 returns $4,000
Kalshi2.5¢Polymarket3.1¢Poly US2.5¢Gemininot in feedSources›Sources›
Trading detail

Compare prices

Each venue’s price for the market you pick, what your order would pay, and the estimated fee.

Houston Texans to win, all venues
Pick a market and an amount
Prices by venue
VenuePrice24h tradedEst. feePayout if correctTrade
KalshiMoneyline · price to buy77¢Price to buy · lowest comparable$20K$1.60$129before feesKalshi77¢
Polymarket USMoneyline · price to buy77¢Price to buy · lowest comparable–n/a$129before feesPolymarket US77¢
PolymarketMoneyline · price to buy78¢Price to buy–n/a$128before feesPolymarket78¢

“Price to buy” is the venue’s current ask; “last trade” is the most recent trade and may not be available now. We don’t yet measure how many contracts are available at a price, so large orders may fill higher. Est. fee uses Kalshi’s published taker-fee formula, per contract in a bundle; other venues’ fees aren’t in our feed. DeFi Rate may earn a commission when you open an account through these links. 18+ (21+ in some states).

NFL news

Latest NFL prediction market coverage

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Explanation

How NFL prediction markets work

How NFL prediction markets work

Every NFL market is a set of yes-or-no contracts that pay $1 if the outcome happens. A game market asks who wins; a futures market asks who wins the Super Bowl, a conference, a division or an award at the end of the season. The price is the market’s chance: 12¢ on the Rams to win the Super Bowl means about a 12% chance, or roughly +730.

Game markets

For each game you can trade the winner (moneyline), a ladder of point-spread contracts (“wins by more than 6.5”) and a ladder of totals (“over 44.5 points”). Our Eagles vs. Jaguars page shows how to read the ladders, and the Week 5 page has every game.

Futures and awards

Futures stay open all season and move with every result and injury. Award markets such as MVP settle on the official award; conference and division markets settle when the playoffs and regular season end. Prices on different venues can disagree more for awards than for games because fewer people trade them.

Why some quotes are held back

We compare each venue’s price with the deepest market, Kalshi. A price far away from every other venue is almost always a data error, so we show it as “flagged” and leave it out of our figure.

Methodology

Each figure averages the venues that list the same outcome, weighted equally; a quote that fails our consistency check is shown but left out. Game and Super Bowl prices are from 3:11 AM ET; conference, award and division futures from about 3:09 AM ET.

Full methodology
PricesEach venue is priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise at its last trade, and every source record says which.
AveragesHeadline figures average the venues that list the same outcome. A venue without a single matching contract is labeled “constructed” or left out.
Timestamps“Data observed” is when prices were read; “Updated” is when an editor last changed the text.
Stale quotesQuotes our data provider marks stale are shown but never averaged.
Activity, not depth24-hour dollars traded is recent activity, not how much you can buy at a price.

Data and sources

Questions

Who is favored to win the Super Bowl?
The Los Angeles Rams, at about 12% averaging Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US as of Oct 9, 2026.
Who is the NFL MVP favorite?
Josh Allen, at about 22%, averaging the venues that pass our consistency check.
Which NFL Week 5 game has the biggest favorite?
The Houston Texans, at about 77% to win.
Is it legal to trade NFL markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket US offer NFL contracts under CFTC rules in most states, but several states are challenging sports contracts in court. See our litigation tracker.

About the authors

Christopher Feery has written professionally since 2014 and has covered the gambling industry full time since New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018.

Cheryle Shepstone is DeFi Rate’s Director of Content and Strategy and oversees its prediction-market research, platform reviews and editorial methodology.

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