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NFL Prediction Markets The Bills lead the Super Bowl race, and Josh Allen leads for MVP

Every Week 4 game, the Super Bowl, both conferences, the awards and all eight divisions, with each venue’s price.

MVP favorite
25%Josh Allen

About 1 in 4

Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $384 if correct, before fees.

Week 4

This week’s games

Kalshi prices for each side. Full Week 4 odds

Kalshi’s price for each side: its price to buy while the quote is fresh, else its displayed price. Tap one to open that game’s market.

NFL Week 4 moneyline odds, Oct 4, 2026
GameFavoriteAwayHomeSources
Steelers at Browns FinalThu, Oct 1 · 8:15pm ETBrowns wonPITLostCLEWonSources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Cardinals at GiantsSun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET56% ARI
$100 on NYG at the ask pays $227
ARI57¢NYG44¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Cowboys at TexansSun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET58% HOU
$100 on DAL at the ask pays $238
DAL42¢HOU58¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Packers at BuccaneersSun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET60% GB
$100 on TB at the ask pays $250
GB60¢TB40¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Jaguars at BengalsSun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET57% CIN
$100 on JAC at the ask pays $232
JAC43¢CIN57¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Rams at EaglesSun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET63% LAR
$100 on PHI at the ask pays $270
LAR64¢PHI37¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Patriots at BillsSun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET74% BUF
$100 on NE at the ask pays $384
NE26¢BUF74¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›
Jets at BearsSun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET64% CHI
$100 on NYJ at the ask pays $277
NYJ36¢CHI64¢Sources & contracts›Sources & contracts›

Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate. Games observed 10:00 AM ET, the Super Bowl 10:00 AM ET, futures about 9:57 AM ET; each figure’s sources show when its quotes were last seen.

Futures

Super Bowl, conferences, awards and divisions

Pick a market. Our figure averages the venues that pass our consistency check; no quote fails it right now.

Kalshi’s last trade and Polymarket’s price to buy, from 10:00 AM ET. Full detail on the Super Bowl page.

NFL Super Bowl odds, Oct 4, 2026
OutcomeChanceKalshiPolymarketPoly USGeminiSources
Buffalo BillsAFC13%
At last trade, $100 returns $800
Kalshi12.5¢Polymarket14¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources & history›Sources & history›
Los Angeles RamsNFC12%
At last trade, $100 returns $869
Kalshi11.5¢Polymarket12¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources›Sources›
San Francisco 49ersNFC9%
$100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $1,136
Kalshi9.5¢Polymarket8.8¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources›Sources›
Baltimore RavensAFC8%
At last trade, $100 returns $1,273
Kalshi8.5¢Polymarket7.8¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources›Sources›
Kansas City ChiefsAFC8%
At last trade, $100 returns $1,333
Kalshi7.5¢Polymarket8.6¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources›Sources›
Seattle SeahawksNFC8%
At last trade, $100 returns $1,333
Kalshi7.5¢Polymarket7.5¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources›Sources›
Cincinnati BengalsAFC5%
At last trade, $100 returns $2,222
Kalshi4.5¢Polymarket4.9¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources›Sources›
Jacksonville JaguarsAFC5%
At last trade, $100 returns $2,222
Kalshi4.5¢Polymarket4.6¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources›Sources›
Denver BroncosAFC4%
$100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $2,272
Kalshi4.5¢Polymarket4.4¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources›Sources›
Detroit LionsNFC4%
At last trade, $100 returns $2,857
Kalshi3.5¢Polymarket3.8¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources›Sources›
Chicago BearsNFC4%
At last trade, $100 returns $2,857
Kalshi3.5¢Polymarket3.6¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources›Sources›
Philadelphia EaglesNFC3%
$100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $3,125
Kalshi3.5¢Polymarket3.2¢Poly USnot listedGemininot listedSources›Sources›
Trading detail

Compare prices

Each venue’s price for the market you pick, what your order would pay, and the estimated fee.

Baltimore Ravens to win, all venues
Pick a market and an amount
Prices by venue
VenuePrice24h tradedEst. feePayout if correctTrade
KalshiMoneyline · price to buy86¢Price to buy$203K$0.98$116before feesKalshi86¢
Polymarket USMoneyline · price to buy85.5¢Price to buy · lowest comparable–n/a$116before feesPolymarket US85.5¢
PolymarketMoneyline · price to buy86¢Price to buy–n/a$116before feesPolymarket86¢

“Price to buy” is the venue’s current ask; “last trade” is the most recent trade and may not be available now. We don’t yet measure how many contracts are available at a price, so large orders may fill higher. Est. fee uses Kalshi’s published taker-fee formula, per contract in a bundle; other venues’ fees aren’t in our feed. DeFi Rate may earn a commission when you open an account through these links. 18+ (21+ in some states).

NFL news

Latest NFL prediction market coverage

All news →
Explanation

How NFL prediction markets work

How NFL prediction markets work

Every NFL market is a set of yes-or-no contracts that pay $1 if the outcome happens. A game market asks who wins; a futures market asks who wins the Super Bowl, a conference, a division or an award at the end of the season. The price is the market’s chance: 13¢ on the Bills to win the Super Bowl means about a 13% chance, or roughly +670.

Game markets

For each game you can trade the winner (moneyline), a ladder of point-spread contracts (“wins by more than 6.5”) and a ladder of totals (“over 44.5 points”). Our Falcons vs. Packers page shows how to read the ladders, and the Week 3 page has every game.

Futures and awards

Futures stay open all season and move with every result and injury. Award markets such as MVP settle on the official award; conference and division markets settle when the playoffs and regular season end. Prices on different venues can disagree more for awards than for games because fewer people trade them.

Why some quotes are held back

We compare each venue’s price with the deepest market, Kalshi. A price far away from every other venue is almost always a data error, so we show it as “flagged” and leave it out of our figure.

Methodology

Each figure averages the venues that list the same outcome, weighted equally; a quote that fails our consistency check is shown but left out. Game and Super Bowl prices are from 10:00 AM ET; conference, award and division futures from about 9:57 AM ET. Full methodology →

Full methodology
PricesEach venue is priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise at its last trade, and every source record says which.
AveragesHeadline figures average the venues that list the same outcome. A venue without a single matching contract is labeled “constructed” or left out.
Timestamps“Data observed” is when prices were read; “Updated” is when an editor last changed the text.
Stale quotesQuotes our data provider marks stale are shown but never averaged.
Activity, not depth24-hour dollars traded is recent activity, not how much you can buy at a price.

Data and sources

Questions

Who is favored to win the Super Bowl?
The Buffalo Bills, at about 13% averaging Kalshi and Polymarket as of Oct 4, 2026.
Who is the NFL MVP favorite?
Josh Allen, at about 25%, averaging the venues that pass our consistency check.
Which NFL Week 4 game has the biggest favorite?
The Baltimore Ravens, at about 85% to win.
Is it legal to trade NFL markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket US offer NFL contracts under CFTC rules in most states, but several states are challenging sports contracts in court. See our litigation tracker.

About the authors

Christopher Feery has written professionally since 2014 and has covered the gambling industry full time since New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018.

Cheryle Shepstone is DeFi Rate’s Director of Content and Strategy and oversees its prediction-market research, platform reviews and editorial methodology.

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