About 1 in 8 (+669)Unchanged this week
Kalshi shows a last trade; Polymarket shows a price to buy. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $714 if correct, before fees.
2027 Super Bowl Odds The Bills lead, but only at about 1 in 8
It’s a wide-open field after Week 3: six teams sit between 8% and 13%.
About 1 in 9 (+770)▼ Down 1 pt this week
Kalshi shows a last trade; Polymarket shows a price to buy. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $833 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 11 (+996)Unchanged this week
Kalshi shows a last trade; Polymarket shows a price to buy. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $1,136 if correct, before fees.
Market moves
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Seattle SeahawksSuper Bowl LXI · Kalshi daily close
6% → 8%
+2 pts
NoteSeahawks beat the Cardinals 31–7. — DeFi Rate news desk, Sep 22
Los Angeles RamsSuper Bowl LXI · Kalshi daily close
13% → 12%
−1 pt
NoteRams beat the Giants 28–6 on Monday Night Football. Their Super Bowl price rose from 12.2% before kickoff to 12.5% Tuesday morning, retaking the top spot from Buffalo. — DeFi Rate news desk, Sep 22
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 4, 10:41 AM ET).
Team explorer
All 32 teams
Our figure, the 7-day move, and each venue’s price to buy, linked to that team’s market.
Kalshi shows its last trade; Polymarket shows its price to buy where our feed has it. Tap a price to open that team’s market.
| Team | Chance | 7 days | Kalshi | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo BillsAFC · +669 | 13% At last trade, $100 returns $800 | – | Kalshi12.5¢ | Polymarket14¢ | Sources & history› |
| Los Angeles RamsNFC · +770 | 12% At last trade, $100 returns $869 | −1 pts | Kalshi11.5¢ | Polymarket12¢ | Sources & history› |
| San Francisco 49ersNFC · +996 | 9.1% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $1,136 | – | Kalshi9.5¢ | Polymarket8.8¢ | Sources & history› |
| Baltimore RavensAFC · +1122 | 8.2% At last trade, $100 returns $1,273 | +1 pts | Kalshi8.5¢ | Polymarket7.8¢ | Sources & history› |
| Kansas City ChiefsAFC · +1139 | 8.1% At last trade, $100 returns $1,333 | – | Kalshi7.5¢ | Polymarket8.6¢ | Sources & history› |
| Seattle SeahawksNFC · +1233 | 7.5% At last trade, $100 returns $1,333 | +2 pts | Kalshi7.5¢ | Polymarket7.5¢ | Sources & history› |
| Cincinnati BengalsAFC · +2088 | 4.6% At last trade, $100 returns $2,222 | −1 pts | Kalshi4.5¢ | Polymarket4.9¢ | Sources & history› |
| Denver BroncosAFC · +2088 | 4.6% At last trade, $100 returns $2,222 | +1 pts | Kalshi4.5¢ | Polymarket5¢ | Sources & history› |
| Jacksonville JaguarsAFC · +2112 | 4.5% At last trade, $100 returns $2,222 | +1 pts | Kalshi4.5¢ | Polymarket4.6¢ | Sources & history› |
| Detroit LionsNFC · +2655 | 3.6% At last trade, $100 returns $2,857 | – | Kalshi3.5¢ | Polymarket3.8¢ | Sources & history› |
| Chicago BearsNFC · +2693 | 3.6% At last trade, $100 returns $2,857 | +1 pts | Kalshi3.5¢ | Polymarket3.6¢ | Sources & history› |
| Philadelphia EaglesNFC · +2903 | 3.3% At last trade, $100 returns $3,174 | −2 pts | Kalshi3.5¢ | Polymarket3.1¢ | Sources & history› |
| Minnesota VikingsNFC · +2903 | 3.3% At last trade, $100 returns $3,174 | +1 pts | Kalshi3.5¢ | Polymarket3.1¢ | Sources & history› |
| Dallas CowboysNFC · +3776 | 2.6% At last trade, $100 returns $4,000 | – | Kalshi2.5¢ | Polymarket2.6¢ | Sources & history› |
| New England PatriotsAFC · +5518 | 1.8% At last trade, $100 returns $6,666 | – | Kalshi1.5¢ | Polymarket2.1¢ | Sources & history› |
| Houston TexansAFC · +5852 | 1.7% At last trade, $100 returns $6,666 | – | Kalshi1.5¢ | Polymarket1.8¢ | Sources & history› |
| Las Vegas RaidersAFC · +6035 | 1.6% At last trade, $100 returns $8,000 | – | Kalshi2¢ | Polymarket1.3¢ | Sources & history› |
| Green Bay PackersNFC · +7146 | 1.4% At last trade, $100 returns $8,000 | – | Kalshi1.5¢ | Polymarket1.3¢ | Sources & history› |
| New Orleans SaintsNFC · +7476 | 1.3% At last trade, $100 returns $8,695 | +1 pts | Kalshi1.5¢ | Polymarket1.1¢ | Sources & history› |
| Los Angeles ChargersAFC · +11264 | 0.9% At last trade, $100 returns $13,333 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.75¢ | Sources & history› |
| Indianapolis ColtsAFC · +11264 | 0.9% At last trade, $100 returns $13,333 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.75¢ | Sources & history› |
| Carolina PanthersNFC · +11948 | 0.8% At last trade, $100 returns $15,384 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.65¢ | Sources & history› |
| Washington CommandersNFC · +11948 | 0.8% At last trade, $100 returns $15,384 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.65¢ | Sources & history› |
| Atlanta FalconsNFC · +11948 | 0.8% At last trade, $100 returns $15,384 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.65¢ | Sources & history› |
| New York GiantsNFC · +12887 | 0.8% At last trade, $100 returns $18,181 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.55¢ | Sources & history› |
| Pittsburgh SteelersAFC · +12887 | 0.8% At last trade, $100 returns $18,181 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.55¢ | Sources & history› |
| Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFC · +12887 | 0.8% At last trade, $100 returns $18,181 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.55¢ | Sources & history› |
| Cleveland BrownsAFC · +12887 | 0.8% At last trade, $100 returns $18,181 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.55¢ | Sources & history› |
| Arizona CardinalsNFC · +13789 | 0.7% At last trade, $100 returns $22,222 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.45¢ | Sources & history› |
| New York JetsAFC · +13789 | 0.7% At last trade, $100 returns $22,222 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.45¢ | Sources & history› |
| Miami DolphinsAFC · +14825 | 0.7% At last trade, $100 returns $28,571 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.35¢ | Sources & history› |
| Tennessee TitansAFC · +14825 | 0.7% At last trade, $100 returns $28,571 | – | Kalshi1¢ | Polymarket0.35¢ | Sources & history› |
Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:41 AM and 10:41 AM ET. Some quotes are stale: they weren’t observed recently and may have moved. Each team’s sources show when.
The evidence
The top six, venue by venue
Each row shows Kalshi and Polymarket for one team, the range between them, and our figure. Open any team for its contracts and history.
Chance to win Super Bowl LXI · by sourceobserved 10:41 AM ET
Since May · Kalshi daily closetop four teams
Trading detail
Compare prices
Each venue’s price for the market you pick, what your order would pay, and the estimated fee.
Buffalo Bills to win Super Bowl LXI, all venues
Pick a market and an amount
| Venue | Price | 24h traded | Est. fee | Payout if correct | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiSuper Bowl LXI contract | 12.5¢Last trade | $18K | $6.13 | $800before fees | Kalshi12.5¢ |
| PolymarketNFL championship contract | 14¢Price to buy | $802 | n/a | $714before fees | Polymarket14¢ |
“Price to buy” is the venue’s current ask; “last trade” is the most recent trade and may not be available now. We don’t yet measure how many contracts are available at a price, so large orders may fill higher. Est. fee uses Kalshi’s published taker-fee formula, per contract in a bundle; other venues’ fees aren’t in our feed. DeFi Rate may earn a commission when you open an account through these links. 18+ (21+ in some states).
Explanation
How Super Bowl odds work
How Super Bowl futures work
A Super Bowl futures contract asks one question, such as “Will the Rams win Super Bowl LXI?” It pays $1 if that team wins the title game in February 2027 and $0 otherwise. The price is the market’s chance: 13¢ means about 13%, or roughly +670 in sportsbook terms.
At 13¢, $100 buys about 769 contracts that would pay about $769 if the Rams win. Prices move all season as results come in, so you can also sell before February and keep any gain.
Why no team is a big favorite
The Rams lead at about 13%, which means the market expects someone else to win about 87% of the time. Six teams sit between 6% and 13%, and together they account for about 54% of the total. The rest is spread across the other 26 teams.
Other NFL markets you can trade
- Conference and division winners: who wins the AFC, the NFC or a division. “Buffalo to win the AFC” at 15¢ pays 85¢ profit per contract if they do.
- To make the playoffs: yes or no for each team.
- Best regular-season record.
- Game markets: moneyline, point spread, total points, team totals and player props, with live markets once a game starts. Availability varies by venue.
This week’s game-by-game odds are on the NFL Week 3 page.
Prediction markets vs. sportsbooks
When Super Bowl LXI futures opened, Kalshi’s prices beat DraftKings’ on 26 of 32 teams, mostly mid-tier contenders and long shots such as New England, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay. DraftKings was better on six teams, including Seattle, Miami and Arizona. Those are opening prices, kept for the record; current prices and how much you can actually buy at them matter more.
Is it legal?
Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges available in most states. Sports event contracts face legal challenges in some states, so availability can change. Check that the market is open to you before you fund an account.
Methodology
Each team’s figure averages Kalshi and Polymarket. In this snapshot Kalshi’s price is its last trade and Polymarket’s is its price to buy where available; each source record says which. History is Kalshi’s daily close. Full methodology →
Full methodology
PricesEach venue is priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise at its last trade, and every source record says which.
AveragesHeadline figures average the venues that list the same outcome. A venue without a single matching contract is labeled “constructed” or left out.
Timestamps“Data observed” is when prices were read; “Updated” is when an editor last changed the text.
Stale quotesQuotes our data provider marks stale are shown but never averaged.
Activity, not depth24-hour dollars traded is recent activity, not how much you can buy at a price.
Data and sources
- Source records for every number on this page: contracts, quote types, calculations and history
- DeFi Rate prediction-market methodology: how we price, average and label every figure
- Permanent snapshot, Oct 4, 10:41 AM ET: a frozen copy for citation
- Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Denver Broncos win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Detroit Lions win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Chicago Bears win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- New England Patriots win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Houston Texans win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Washington Commanders win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- New York Giants win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- New York Jets win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Super Bowl LXI odds, all 32 teams (CSV)
- Every figure and contract on this page (CSV)
Questions
Who is the favorite to win Super Bowl LXI?
The Buffalo Bills, at about 13% (+669) as of Oct 4, 2026, averaging Kalshi (12.5%) and Polymarket (13.5%).
Are these odds an average?
Yes. Each team’s figure is the equal-weight average of Kalshi and Polymarket. Both venues’ own prices are shown in the team table and in each source record.
How often do Super Bowl odds update?
Prices are checked every 2 minutes. The page shows when the data was observed and, separately, when the text was last edited.
When is Super Bowl LXI?
February 2027. Contracts settle on the official result of the game.
About the authors
Christopher Feery has written professionally since 2014 and has covered the gambling industry full time since New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018.
Cheryle Shepstone is DeFi Rate’s Director of Content and Strategy and oversees its prediction-market research, platform reviews and editorial methodology.
Keep reading