List of prediction market apps in the US, ranked and reviewed for 2026
Kalshi and Polymarket are the dominant players in the prediction market space, but there are numerous alternatives to explore, including offerings from familiar brands like DraftKings and FanDuel. This page tracks every single prediction site, from application for DCM status to fully launched. You will find:
- Full list of all prediction market applications and live status
- Side-by-side comparables of sites with CFTC approval
- Liquidity sampled across 240+ live markets
- Interactive demos so you can calculate fees & trading
2026 Prediction Markets Landscape
5
Prediction apps available
CFTC-approved & live
14
Pending DCM applications
in CFTC review for 2026
50
Available in 50 states federally
active state-level challenges in 5+
3
Billion active markets
tracked by DeFi Rate
As referenced by
Top prediction market promos September 2026
| Company | DeFiRate rating | Promotion | Fees | Deposit / Withdrawal | Learn more |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Best Bonus | Deposit $10 and get $20 trade bonus. Open to 49 states + DC
Polymarket US Risk Disclaimer 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization. | 0% most markets Profit-based: 0% maker; variable taker fees on 15-minute markets; 2% of net profit taken at withdrawal. | 2% of net profits Fee assessed at withdrawal on net winnings. |
LEARN MORE on Polymarket US's website | |
Deposit $10, Get $15 trade bonus. Open to 49 states + DC
Kalshi Terms & Conditions Deposit and trade at least $10 on Kalshi within your first 90 days and get a $25 trading bonus. The bonus is available for trade only and is not cashable. Must be used within 7 days. Eligible US states only. | 0.07–1.75% Formula-based: 1.75% at 50/50 odds, lower toward the edges; maker rebates up to 0.44%. | ACH free 2% debit card fee on deposits. |
LEARN MORE on Kalshi's website | ||
Deposit $10, Get $10 trade bonus. Open to 50 states + DC | — | — |
LEARN MORE on Gemini Predictions's website | ||
Free bonus when you download the app and sign-up. Open to 50 states + DC
FanDuel Terms & Conditions Requires $1 trade over five days. The bonus itself is non-withdrawable, but winnings from bonus-funded trades are immediately withdrawable. If the bonus trade wins, you keep the winnings portion but not the original bonus stake. Must be 18+ | 2% of payout Payout-based: 2% of potential payout, charged at checkout and on early cash-out; 0% maker. | Free ACH Debit card, online banking supported. |
LEARN MORE on FanDuel's website | ||
Trade $10, Get $10 Free. New-customer terms apply.
OG Predictions Terms & Conditions Your first trade must be $10 to qualify for the $10 offer within the first seven days of your account. 18+ only. | ~2% per contract Per-contract: $0.02 (≈2% of $1) on open/early close, waived at settlement; none on losing positions. 0% maker. | $1.99 bank withdrawal Deposits free; flat fee on bank withdrawals. |
LEARN MORE on OG Predictions's website |
What are prediction markets?
A prediction market is an exchange where you trade contracts on the outcome of real-world events. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t. The price between zero and one dollar reflects the market’s collective probability. Unlike a sportsbook, that price is continuously discovered by the buyers and sellers in the order book.
In the United States, regulated prediction markets operate under CFTC oversight as derivatives exchanges, the same regulator that supervises commodity futures. This puts the product closer to oil futures with full transparency on volume, open interest, and settlement.
The most active market categories today are politics, sports, economics, and crypto. Liquidity has roughly tripled in the last 18 months, and several traditional brokerages have signaled plans to enter the space including ICE.
These are two-sided markets
Every buyer needs a seller. The price you see is what someone else is willing to take — not a number set by the house.
Continuous movement
Prices update tick-by-tick as new information arrives, giving a live probability for the event right up until resolution.
Cash settlement
Contracts cash-settle to $1 or $0 at resolution. This is a clean P&L on a binary outcome.
By the Numbers
How prediction markets work
Exchange publishes the question and rules
Every contract is worth exactly one dollar if it’s right and exactly zero if it’s wrong — that’s the whole payout structure. Since our market resolved No, every “No” contract pays out a full dollar, and every “Yes” contract expires worthless. If you bought “No” at 70 cents, you just made 30 cents on the dollar. If you bought “Yes,” that position is gone. The math is that simple by design. And it happens right away. The moment the market resolves, winnings are credited and you can withdraw — there’s no waiting period, no payout review, no haggling. Because everything was defined up front, the close-out is automatic. That predictability, from the first published question to the final dollar, is the entire appeal: you always know exactly what you’re holding and exactly what it’s worth.
The order book opens. Price emerges from real bids.
Once the market is listed, it goes live and the price starts to move on its own. Nobody at the exchange decides the odds. Instead, buyers and sellers post what they’re willing to pay, and the price settles wherever those offers meet — exactly like a stock. If a “Yes” contract is trading at 18 cents, the crowd is collectively saying there’s roughly an 18% chance the Fed cuts. As new information lands, people adjust their bids and the price drifts up or down in real time. This is what makes prediction markets different from a sportsbook. A sportsbook sets a line and you take it or leave it. Here, the line is just the running tally of what real people are putting real money behind. The price isn’t an opinion handed to you — it’s the market’s best live guess, updated every time someone trades.
You buy, sell and exit anytime.
Prediction markets don’t require you to hold a contract until the event happens. If you think the Fed’s going to hold rates steady, you buy “No” at whatever it’s trading for. If the price later moves your way, you can sell and pocket the difference without waiting for the meeting at all. And if you’ve got no edge, you do nothing — sitting out is a perfectly fine move, which is something a fixed-odds bet never really lets you do. That flexibility changes how you think about it. A contract bought at 30 cents and sold at 45 cents is a win, full stop, regardless of how the event eventually turns out. You’re trading your read of the probability against everyone else’s, and you can step in or step out whenever the price makes sense to you. Your risk is always capped at what you paid — you can’t lose more than you put into the position.
The named source is checked. Yes or No is declared.
When the market closes, there’s no debate and no judgment call. The exchange goes to the one source it named back in step one and reads off the answer. For our example, that source was the FOMC’s June statement — and on June 17, 2026, the committee voted to hold rates steady. The question was “Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?” The answer was no, so the market resolves No. This is why the precise wording from step one matters so much. Because the question and the source were both nailed down in advance, resolution is just a lookup, not an argument. Everybody knew the rule going in, so everybody accepts the outcome coming out. There’s nothing to dispute because nothing was left vague.
Winners get $1, losers get $0. Funds clear instantly.
Every contract is worth exactly one dollar if it’s right and exactly zero if it’s wrong — that’s the whole payout structure. Since our market resolved No, every “No” contract pays out a full dollar, and every “Yes” contract expires worthless. If you bought “No” at 70 cents, you just made 30 cents on the dollar. If you bought “Yes,” that position is gone. The math is that simple by design. And it happens right away. The moment the market resolves, winnings are credited and you can withdraw — there’s no waiting period, no payout review, no haggling. Because everything was defined up front, the close-out is automatic. That predictability, from the first published question to the final dollar, is the entire appeal: you always know exactly what you’re holding and exactly what it’s worth.
Best prediction market apps in 2026
Each review reflects 30+ hours of hands-on testing and at least three full deposit-to-withdrawal cycles.
#1 Kalshi
Pros
- The mobile app is widely called the best prediction market app in the space. It's fast and lag-free even during high-volume events.
- Significantly better product experience. Offers rewards, community, aggregates live news, market suggestions
- Cashing out is fast and mostly free with payments in 30 minutes
Cons
- Slight learning curve for sports bettors migrating to a trading platform
- Bonuses and promos not available in AZ, OH, MA,
- Niche markets have thin liquidity, wider spreads, and contract caps that make positions hard to fill or size up.
#2 Polymarket US
Pros
- The iOS app is the fastest in the category, well ahead of DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel Predicts.
- Flat 0.30% taker fee with a 0.20% maker rebate makes it the cheapest per trade among regulated US operators.
- Best bonus offer: Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus trading bonus. Use it to open real-money positions; winnings become withdrawable once you've completed $50 in trading
Cons
- The catalog is sports-heavy, with politics and economics markets still thin and only being added gradually.
- iOS only as of mid-2026, with no Android or web access yet.
- No limit orders for price control, and no responsible-trading tools like deposit limits or self-exclusion.
#3 FanDuel
Pros
- Trade $1 or more a day for five days to earn $100 in Predicts Bonus.
- Low $10 minimum deposit and withdrawal, with no fees charged on cash-outs.
- Capped downside on every contract, so your maximum loss is known upfront.
Cons
- The 2% fee on potential payout gets costly as trades scale up.
- No order book, liquidity display, or limit orders, stripping away price control.
- Thin per-sport markets: only winners, totals, spreads, with no props or combos.
#3 OG Predictions
Pros
- The most flexible funding lineup in the category, including ACH, debit, Apple Pay, Google Pay, PayPal, Venmo, wire, and crypto.
- More sports coverage than FanDuel, DKeX and Polymarket, fewer than Kalshi.
- Flat, transparent trading fee of about $0.02 per contract, with no charge on winning contracts held to settlement.
Cons
- Withdrawals are ACH-only, and instant deposits carry a seven-business-day hold before you can cash out.
- No limit orders and no visible order-book depth, so it's hard to gauge liquidity before entering.
- Customer support has no 24/7 phone line, leaning on live chat and email, which is a gap in the US market.
How prediction markets compare
| FEATURE | DETAILS |
|---|---|
| What you trade | Yes/No event contracts priced $0.01–$0.99, settling at $1 or $0 |
| Who you trade against | Other users, peer-to-peer, no house taking the other side |
| How prices are set | Market-driven by supply and demand; price reflects implied probability |
| Regulator | CFTC (federal), as derivatives / designated contract markets |
| Availability | Nationwide under federal law, though some states challenge sports contracts |
| Cost model | Per-contract trading fee; no built-in vig |
| Can you exit early? | Yes, sell your position at the current market price before settlement |
| Payout | Fixed $1 per winning contract |
| FEATURE | DETAILS |
|---|---|
| What you trade | Stocks, futures, options, and other financial instruments |
| Who you trade against | Other market participants through an order book |
| How prices are set | Continuous market pricing from bids and asks |
| Regulator | SEC (securities) and CFTC (futures / derivatives) |
| Availability | Nationwide, subject to brokerage account eligibility |
| Cost model | Commissions and/or spreads, plus regulatory fees |
| Can you exit early? | Yes, positions can be closed anytime the market is open |
| Payout | Variable, based on the instrument’s market value |
| FEATURE | DETAILS |
|---|---|
| What you bet | Wagers on games: moneylines, spreads, totals, props, parlays |
| Who you bet against | The house, which takes the other side of every bet |
| How prices are set | Bookmaker sets the odds, with margin (vig) baked in |
| Regulator | State gaming commissions, licensed state by state |
| Availability | Only in states that have legalized online sports betting |
| Cost model | No explicit fee; cost is embedded in the odds / vig |
| Can you exit early? | Sometimes, via cash-out, at the book’s discretion and price |
| Payout | Varies by odds; set at the time you place the bet |
Where are prediction markets legal?
Search by app (Kalshi, Polymarket…) to filter the list, or by state to see which prediction markets are available in your location.
Availability data verified weekly. Operator footprints reflect platform terms — sports-specific markets on some operators may have additional state-level restrictions.
All prediction market operators
| Platform | Status | CFTC Approval | Partner | Launch information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Polymarket US | Live | DCM, DCO | polymarket | — |
| K Kalshi | Live | DCM, DCO | kalshi | Designated as the first CFTC-approved DCM for event contracts in Nov 2020; publicly launched July 2021. Self-clears via affiliate Kalshi Klear LLC (DCO, Aug 2024) |
| G Gemini Predictions | Live | DCO, DCM | gemini | Gemini Titan (DCM) + Gemini Olympus (DCO). |
| FD FanDuel | Live | Partner DCM | cme | FanDuel Predicts launched December 2025 via a FanDuel–CME Group venture, with sports contracts limited to 18 states where FanDuel lacks a sportsbook license. |
| DK DraftKings | Live | DCM, IB | cme | 2025-12-19 |
| OG OG Predictions | Live | Partner DCM | crypto.com | Crypto.com's standalone prediction market, launched Feb 3, 2026 on its CDNA exchange ahead of the Super Bowl. |
| UD Underdog Predict | Live | FCM | aristotle | Built into the Underdog app via a Crypto.com/CDNA partnership announced Sep 2, 2025; now routes through CDNA as an FCM (UDM LLC) alongside its own Aristotle Exchange. |
| FO Forecastex | Live | DCO, DCM | forecastex | IBKR-affiliated exchange and clearinghouse; also carries Robinhood order flow. |
| FM Fanatics Markets | — | — | cme | — |
| N Novig | Approved Not Launched | DCM | ludlow | DCM cleared in June 2026; not yet trading. |
Prediction market calculator
The same market trades at different prices on each venue. Enter the Kalshi and Polymarket prices and your stake — we compute shares, fees, payout, and which gives the better return.
Live comparison
Illustrative estimates only. Excludes deposit/withdrawal fees, gas, spreads, and special-event pricing. Each contract pays $1 if it resolves Yes and $0 if No. Fees and schedules change — confirm in the order ticket before trading.
Latest news and updates
Polymarket Promo Code RATE: $50 Bonus and Zero Fees for Commanders vs. Cowboys
Polymarket is waiving fees on every football market Sept. 19-20. Dallas is priced at 66% for Sunday’s NFC East matchup against Washington. New users can separately unlock a $50 bonus with promo code RATE.
Polymarket Promo Code RATE: $50 Bonus for UFC 331 Van vs. Pantoja 2 Predictions
UFC 331 happens tonight, with the main card kicking off at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+ and Van vs. Pantoja 2 in the main event spotlight. The Polymarket promo code RATE is available, offering new users a $50 bonus.
Polymarket Promo Code RATE: $50 Bonus and Zero Fees for LSU vs. Ole Miss
Polymarket is waiving fees on every football market Sept. 19-20. LSU is priced at 60% for the Saturday night showdown against Ole Miss. New users can separately unlock a $50 bonus with promo code RATE.
Polymarket Promo Code Rate: $50 Bonus for Lions vs. Bills TNF
The forecast calls for points when the Lions and Bills meet on Thursday Night Football. Polymarket pricing leans toward the Bills winning in a high-scoring game. Unlock a $50 bonus when you sign up to trade with the Polymarket promo code RATE.
NFL Week 2 Odds: Daily Predictions and Lines
Kyler Murray is out for Minnesota’s Sunday game at Chicago, with Carson Wentz set to start and Kalshi pricing the Vikings at 34% against the Bears at 66%. Eagles vs. Titans leads the remaining slate with 3,647,177 contracts in Kalshi game composite volume as of 7:25 a.m. ET on Sept. 20. Panthers vs. Falcons is the closest-priced matchup at Carolina 58% and Atlanta 43%.
Kalshi Promo Code RATE: $25 Bonus for Week 1 Commanders vs. Eagles
Use the Kalshi promo code RATE for a $25 trading bonus before Commanders vs. Eagles. Philadelphia was a 70% favorite ahead of Sunday’s Week 1 matchup.
Kalshi Promo Code Rate: $25 Bonus for Broncos vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football
Unlock a $25 Kalshi bonus for Broncos vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football. Trade live prediction markets as this AFC West primetime showdown closes out the NFL Week 1 slate.
Polymarket Promo Code Rate: $50 Bonus for Cowboys vs. Giants SNF
It’s an NFC East battle to open this season’s Sunday Night Football slate. Polymarket pricing leans toward the Cowboys getting the win over the Giants in a game that’s set to attract significant trading volume.
Top prediction markets by category today
You can trade contracts on a wide range of outcomes at prediction markets. The majority of platforms feature binary options, which translates into yes/no outcomes. There are contracts with one choice to make, such as which team will win an upcoming game. Tap a category to see live markets today, current probability pricing across Kalshi and Polymarket. The volume and pricing in each category is updated every 24 hours.
| Market Question | Kalshi | Polymarket | Total Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee | Jon Ossoff 16.5% | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18.6% | $1.47B |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee | J.D. Vance 45.5% | J.D. Vance 51.2% | $723.0M |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? | J.D. Vance 22.5% | J.D. Vance 21.1% | $700.8M |
| California Governor winner? (Person) | Xavier Becerra 95.9% | Xavier Becerra 94.5% | $54.0M |
| Which party will win the U.S. House? | Democratic Party 89.5% | Not Available | $32.7M |
| Los Angeles Mayor winner? | Karen Bass 62.5% | Not Available | $32.3M |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? | D Senate, D House 58.5% | D Senate, D House 59.5% | $28.8M |
| Texas Senate winner? | James Talarico 58.5% | Not Available | $13.2M |
| Market Question | Kalshi | Polymarket | Total Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? | No 95.1% | No 95.8% | $69.3M |
| Will the SAVE Act become law? | Before Jan 4, 2027 3.5% | Not Available | $13.7M |
| Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) | Before January 20, 2029 23.5% | Not Available | $7.4M |
| Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? | Nicolás Maduro 69.0% | Not Available | $5.5M |
| Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? | Before January 20, 2029 10.5% | Not Available | $5.1M |
| Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? | Karoline Leavitt 100.0% | Tulsi Gabbard 100.0% | $5.0M |
| Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? | Before election day 2026 5.3% | Not Available | $3.6M |
| Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? | Before January 21, 2029 17.5% | Not Available | $3.4M |
Compares the top political prediction markets today from DeFi Rate, using public data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Probabilty and volume updated daily.
| Market Question | Kalshi | Polymarket | Total Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Pro Football Champion | Los Angeles Rams 12.0% | Buffalo Bills 12.5% | $176.7M |
| Pro Baseball Champion | Los Angeles D 29.8% | Not Available | $65.1M |
| 2027 Pro Basketball Champion | Oklahoma City Thunder 21.5% | Oklahoma City Thunder 21.5% | $50.9M |
| College Football National Championship Winner | Texas 14.5% | Not Available | $37.1M |
| Heisman Trophy Winner | Darian Mensah 23.5% | Not Available | $23.9M |
| Biltmore Championship Asheville Winner | Neal Shipley 41.5% | Not Available | $22.3M |
| MVP Winner? | Josh Allen 25.0% | Josh Allen 25.5% | $21.6M |
| BMW PGA Championship Winner | Rory McIlroy 16.5% | Not Available | $9.9M |
Compares the top 8 prediction markets (odds and volume) on Kalshi and Polymarket, updated daily with data from Kalshi and Polymarket public API.
| Market Question | Kalshi | Polymarket | Total Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will at least 50% of scheduled flights at JFK be cancelled on October 21, 2026? | At least 50% 2.7% | Not Available | $3.1M |
| What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? | Gonzalo 28.0% | Not Available | $512.0K |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? | Hottest 73.8% | Not Available | $349.6K |
| How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026? | Above 0 40.5% | Not Available | $120.5K |
| Where will it rain on Sep 20, 2026? | Newark 99.5% | Not Available | $117.3K |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? | Before 2027 7.0% | Not Available | $93.1K |
| Rain in Los Angeles in Sep 2026? | Above 1 inch 14.0% | Not Available | $84.7K |
| How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026? | Above 4 7.5% | Not Available | $70.6K |
Compares the top weather prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, with leading outcome, probability and volume updated daily.
| Market Question | Kalshi | Polymarket | Total Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| How high will Bitcoin get in 2026? | $100,000 27.5% | $75,000 100.0% | $48.8M |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 | 75,000 to 79,999.99 15.3% | Not Available | $36.7M |
| Ethereum price at the end of 2026 | 2,250 to 2,499.99 14.3% | Not Available | $12.1M |
| Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027? | Above $200000 2.5% | Not Available | $9.1M |
| Will the Clarity Act become law? | Before Jan 1, 2028 33.5% | Not Available | $5.2M |
| How low will Bitcoin get in 2026? | Below $55,000.00 17.5% | Not Available | $5.2M |
| When will Bitcoin cross $100k again? | Before January 2027 26.5% | Not Available | $3.1M |
| How high will Ethereum get in 2026? | Above $3,500.00 30.5% | Not Available | $2.5M |
Compare the top crypto markets trading on Kalshi and Polymarket today, including probability, leading outcome and volume. Markets updated every 24 hours.
Important note: Kalshi and Polymarket tend to offer very similar markets, but the exact wording of the contract and listings may vary. The odds are blank where no match exists. US prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC.
Tips for trading on prediction markets
Having several options to consider is a good problem to have, but it can also lead to uncertainty about which is the best choice for you. When comparing prediction market platforms, you can keep it simple and begin by focusing on these key areas.
- Fees: Review the fee structure for any platform that you plan to trade with. It should be clearly defined and reasonable. Take the time to compare fees to help decide where to trade, as they can have a direct impact on your bottom line.
- Liquidity: If markets aren’t actively traded, prices can be skewed, and the appeal can be limited. Not every contract will be liquid, but you’ll want to make sure that there’s active and regular interest in the markets that you want to trade.
- Market depth: You’ll want to make sure that the platform offers all of the markets that you’re interested in trading. The industry leaders cover all of the bases, while others are more specific in focus areas, such as sports or politics.
- State availability: If a platform isn’t accessible in your state, it’s not going to do you any good. This applies to many of the sports-specific platforms. For others that operate nationally, availability could be subject to change.
- Banking and speed: Most of the leading platforms have several funding options to consider. You’ll want to make sure that your preferred methods are covered, whether it’s crypto or a traditional banking method.
- Accessibility: Some traders prefer apps, while others prefer the larger desktop experience. While many of the top platforms operate in both environments, make sure your preferences will be met.
- Registration process: For all regulated platforms, there’s a sign-up and verification process, with KYC protocols to meet. The registration process should be smooth and hassle-free, provided you do your part in verifying your details.
If you land on a platform that checks off all these boxes, you’ve landed on a solid option. One miss doesn’t signal automatic disqualification, but missing the mark in multiple areas could be a red flag on a platform where the potential for headaches outweighs the appeal.
How to sign up for a prediction market site
You can sign up and be ready to trade at your prediction market site of choice in mere minutes. Use the steps below as a quick start guide.
- Pick your platform. Read our reviews of the best prediction market sites above and decide where you want to trade.
- Get up to speed. Understand how trading works on the platform, know what’s available to trade, and review the trading fees.
- Claim your bonus. Several of the leading platforms offer sign-up bonuses for new players. Use the applicable links or codes on this page to claim them.
- Register. Sign up for an account. As part of the process, you’ll be asked to verify your details and may be prompted to share identification.
- Deposit funds: You’ll need a starting balance. Choose your preferred method from the available options and add funds to your account.
- Begin trading: Browse the available markets, decide your position, enter your stake, and process your trade.
Our tip: While it’s perfectly fine to have a favorite prediction market platform, stay flexible enough to expand your horizons. By signing up to trade with multiple platforms, you can get a truer feel for what really works best for you. Additionally, having accounts with different platforms provides you with the flexibility to act quickly when you spot pricing inconsistencies that you feel strongly about.
Our review and rating process
Our goal is to deliver comprehensive prediction market reviews that equip you with the knowledge to decide which platforms work best for you. We go beyond surface-level information that can easily be uncovered. Other reviews may cover the basics. We dig much deeper.
- Our reviews are conducted by industry experts. They have hands-on experience, know what to look for on platform mechanics, and understand what matters for traders.
- We provide information directly from primary sources. The details we provide aren’t mere summaries. We dive deep into regulatory filings and each platform to uncover the facts.
- Actionable information is the priority. Our reviews are tailored as complete guides, providing a clear picture of what to expect and unbiased pros and cons.
For additional insight, our Editorial Guidelines and Policies page provides a complete look at our methodologies and practices.
Latest news and updates
Kalshi Teams With Louisiana Tribe on First Tribal Prediction Market App
Days after a federal appeals court found Kalshi’s sports contracts likely violate tribal gaming rules on two California rancherias, the company has unveiled a Tribal-owned prediction-market app with the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana, a tribe operating in a state where sports betting and gambling are legal.
Kalshi ‘Settles’ Lawsuit Against Montana Attorney General With Allowance for Ninth Circuit Opinion
Kalshi and Montana officials have reached agreement on a motion to dismiss the company’s lawsuit in exchange for non-action promises from gambling regulators.
Ninth Circuit Revives Tribal Challenge to Kalshi Sports Contracts in California
A federal appeals court reversed a lower court’s refusal to consider blocking Kalshi and Robinhood from offering sports event contracts on two California tribal lands, finding the tribes are likely to win under federal Indian gaming law.
The ruling builds on the Ninth Circuit’s recent Nevada decision against Kalshi, and widens the distance between the West Coast court and the Third Circuit’s pro-Kalshi ruling in New Jersey.
CFTC Argues Jurisdictional Exclusivity in New York Hearing
Hearing follows judge change in Underdog lawsuit against Washington authorities and Arizona officials asking the Ninth Circuit to lift their injunction.
American Gaming Association Opposes CFTC Bid to Block New York Prediction-Market Enforcement
The American Gaming Association has opposed the CFTC’s request to block New York prediction-market enforcement ahead of a Sept. 14 hearing. The case asks whether federally regulated sports-event contracts fall exclusively under federal derivatives law or may also face state gambling regulation.
CME Stops Adding Sports and Awards Futures, Letting Existing Markets Run Off
CME is ending new expiries for its sports and cultural event-contract swaps, including contracts tied to sports, the Oscars and the Grammys. Existing positions will continue trading and clearing through expiration, but once those contracts run off, CME’s own prediction-market experiment will effectively go dark unless it files another rule change.
Connecticut Sends Cease-and-Desist Orders Affecting Sports Contracts on Nine Exchanges
Connecticut gambling regulators have issued 9 C&D orders to prediction market operators and 29 subpoenas: nine to licensed service providers, 15 to media organizations and five to app-store/payment companies.
Kalshi Seeks Ninth Circuit Rehearing as Robinhood Takes Nevada Prediction Market Fight to Supreme Court
Kalshi is asking the full Ninth Circuit to reconsider the panel decision allowing Nevada to regulate its sports-event contracts as gambling. Robinhood, meanwhile, has filed a Supreme Court petition seeking review of that same ruling, adding a second industry-backed request alongside New Jersey’s petition to settle a growing circuit split.
Responsible trading at prediction markets
As with any type of trading, there are risks attached to prediction markets. No matter how likely an outcome may appear to be, profits are never guaranteed. Contracts that are priced near certainty levels can suddenly move in the opposite direction as new developments arise.
One of the regularly highlighted benefits of prediction markets is the aggregation of the wisdom of the crowd. Unfortunately, that too can come with risk. The crowd isn’t always correct. If you follow blindly without assessing the situation for yourself, you’re taking unnecessary risks.
In markets that are liquid, entering and exiting positions as prices move is generally seamless. That’s not always the case in markets with lower volume. Slippage can happen while you await an order fill, and your set limit prices may not be readily accepted.
While the regulatory environment is out of the control of market participants, it is a situation that bears monitoring. Changes in availability or markets that can be traded could have an impact on your portfolio. Our news hub is the go-to spot to stay on top of the latest developments.
Lastly, the potential for a complete loss of your stake can happen on any trade. You should only trade with funds that you can afford to lose. As a general rule, your trading account should be limited to an amount that’s completely separate from what you need for living expenses.
Kalshi and Polymarket are regarded as the industry leaders in the US with the best apps. That doesn’t automatically make them the best fit for all users. You will want to consider factors like availability, fees, liquidity, and market depth to determine what you prefer the most.
Most platforms charge a trading fee that’s capped by the number of contracts traded, such as a maximum of $1.75 for 100-contract trades at Kalshi. Some also incorporate maker and taker fees based on liquidity impacts, and may charge nominal fees on select transactions, such as debit card withdrawals.
No. Prediction markets are based on event-contract trading on real-world outcomes. Under CFTC regulation, they’re considered a form of derivatives trading, not traditional gambling.
In the U.S., Kalshi tends to attract the most liquidity, while Polymarket is tops in international circles. Traders should also note that liquidity can vary by market. For example, a political topic may see more liquidity on Kalshi, while a crypto market could be more heavily traded at Polymarket.
No, availability varies by state. Kalshi and Polymarket advertise themselves as being available across the U.S. due to CFTC regulation, but have received pushback in some markets, specifically Nevada and New York. Platforms like DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts avoid certain states while being mindful of existing sports betting laws and regulations.