Prediction Markets: Live Volume from Kalshi & Polymarket

Weekly Notional Volume

$4.3B

K Kalshi

$2.4B (56%)

P Polymarket

$1.9B (44%)

Active Markets

266,047

K Kalshi

237,059 (89%)

P Polymarket

28,988 (11%)

Weekly Transactions

36,957,332

K Kalshi

17,380,885 (47%)

P Polymarket

19,576,447 (53%)

Open Interest

$779.8M

K Kalshi

$403.1M (52%)

P Polymarket

$376.6M (48%)

Last updated: February 17, 2026 at 9:58 AM PST

Kalshi

CFTC Regulated

Volume (rolling)

24H $105.4M -47.8%

7D $1.5B -5.9%

30D $6.3B +45.0%

Top Categories (24h)

1 ⚽ Sports $98.0M

2 ₿ Crypto $14.9M

3 🏛️ Politics $1.5M

Top Markets (24h)

Houston at Iowa St.

⚽ Sports $9.1M

Girona vs Barcelona

⚽ Sports $3.1M

Coppin St. at South Carolina St.

⚽ Sports $2.8M

Polymarket

Decentralized Platform

Volume (rolling)

24H $198.7M -4.1%

7D $1.6B -9.2%

30D $7.6B +42.8%

Top Categories (24h)

1 ⚽ Sports $52.0M

2 📦 Misc $42.8M

3 🏛️ Politics $42.5M

Top Markets (24h)

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

🏛️ Politics $7.7M

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

🏛️ Politics $6.4M

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

🏛️ Politics $5.0M

Top Markets by Volume

Highest trading activity across platforms

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

Gavin Newsom 28%

$7.7M

$10.5M

Nov 6

Active

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

Gavin Newsom 28%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10%

Kamala Harris 5%

Josh Shapiro 5%

Jon Ossoff 4%

Pete Buttigieg 4%

J.B. Pritzker 3%

Andy Beshear 3%

Rahm Emanuel 2%

Jon Stewart 2%

Mark Kelly 2%

Gretchen Whitmer 2%

Wes Moore 2%

Ruben Gallego 2%

Chelsea Clinton 1%

Tim Walz 1%

Zohran Mamdani 1%

Bernie Sanders 1%

George Clooney 1%

Liz Cheney 1%

Hillary Clinton 1%

Jasmine Crockett 1%

Kim Kardashian 1%

Gina Raimondo 1%

Michelle Obama 1%

Hunter Biden 1%

Raphael Warnock 1%

MrBeast 1%

Oprah Winfrey 1%

Chris Murphy 1%

Roy Cooper 1%

Barack Obama 1%

LeBron James 1%

Mark Cuban 1%

Andrew Yang 1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%

Beto O’Rourke 1%

Cory Booker 1%

Phil Murphy 1%

Jared Polis 1%

Stephen A. Smith 1%

John Fetterman 1%

Ro Khanna 1%

Volume

$7.7M

Open Int.

$10.5M

Ends

Nov 6

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

J.D. Vance 46%

$6.4M

$1.4M

Nov 6

Active

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

J.D. Vance 46%

Marco Rubio 12%

Donald Trump 5%

Ted Cruz 2%

Ron DeSantis 2%

Donald Trump Jr. 2%

Glenn Youngkin 2%

Tucker Carlson 2%

Mike Pence 1%

Kim Kardashian 1%

Katie Britt 1%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%

John Thune 1%

Kristi Noem 1%

Elon Musk 1%

Steve Bannon 1%

Greg Abbott 1%

Elise Stefanik 1%

Tom Brady 1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%

Byron Donalds 1%

Matt Gaetz 1%

Brian Kemp 1%

Erika Kirk 1%

Tulsi Gabbard 1%

Rand Paul 1%

Vivek Ramaswamy 1%

Josh Hawley 1%

Ivanka Trump 1%

Nikki Haley 1%

Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%

Thomas Massie 1%

Volume

$6.4M

Open Int.

$1.4M

Ends

Nov 6

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair 96%

$5.0M

$46.0M

Dec 30

Active

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair 96%

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair 3%

Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair 1%

No 1%

Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair 1%

Volume

$5.0M

Open Int.

$46.0M

Ends

Dec 30

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket 📊 Economics

No 93%

$3.5M

$10.7M

Mar 17

Active

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket

📊 Economics Active

No 93%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting 7%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%

Volume

$3.5M

Open Int.

$10.7M

Ends

Mar 17

What price will Bitcoin hit in February?

Polymarket ₿ Crypto

$75,000 37%

$3.2M

$13.4M

Feb 28

Active

What price will Bitcoin hit in February?

Polymarket

₿ Crypto Active

$75,000 37%

$60,000 23%

$80,000 12%

$55,000 10%

$85,000 4%

$50,000 4%

$90,000 2%

$150,000 1%

$35,000 1%

$125,000 1%

$95,000 1%

$100,000 1%

$45,000 1%

$40,000 1%

$120,000 1%

$105,000 1%

$110,000 1%

$115,000 1%

Volume

$3.2M

Open Int.

$13.4M

Ends

Feb 28

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket ⚽ Sports

Spain 16%

$3.2M

$1.1M

Jul 19

Active

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket

⚽ Sports Active

Spain 16%

England 14%

France 12%

Argentina 10%

Brazil 9%

Portugal 7%

Germany 6%

Norway 3%

Netherlands 3%

Morocco 2%

Italy 2%

Colombia 2%

Belgium 2%

South Alabama 2%

New Zealand 1%

South Africa 1%

Scotland 1%

Canada 1%

Uzbekistan 1%

Jordan 1%

Curaçao 1%

Haiti 1%

Egypt 1%

South Korea 1%

Austria 1%

Cape Verde 1%

Senegal 1%

Switzerland 1%

Ecuador 1%

Tunisia 1%

Croatia 1%

Ivory Coast 1%

Saudi Arabia 1%

Uruguay 1%

Iran 1%

Qatar 1%

Japan 1%

Mexico 1%

Algeria 1%

Paraguay 1%

Ghana 1%

Australia 1%

Volume

$3.2M

Open Int.

$1.1M

Ends

Jul 19

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

JD Vance 24%

$2.5M

$1.3M

Nov 6

Active

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

JD Vance 24%

Gavin Newsom 17%

Marco Rubio 8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6%

Kamala Harris 4%

Josh Shapiro 3%

Donald Trump 3%

Andy Beshear 2%

JB Pritzker 2%

Pete Buttigieg 2%

Jon Ossoff 2%

Tim Walz 1%

Greg Abbott 1%

Tulsi Gabbard 1%

LeBron James 1%

Kim Kardashian 1%

Michelle Obama 1%

Zohran Mamdani 1%

Vivek Ramaswamy 1%

Stephen Smith 1%

Glenn Youngkin 1%

Elon Musk 1%

Nikki Haley 1%

Jamie Dimon 1%

Gretchen Whitmer 1%

Donald Trump Jr. 1%

Ro Khanna 1%

Tucker Carlson 1%

Thomas Massie 1%

Wes Moore 1%

Ron DeSantis 1%

Ivanka Trump 1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%

Volume

$2.5M

Open Int.

$1.3M

Ends

Nov 6

2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner

Polymarket ⚽ Sports

Canada 56%

$2.2M

$1.8M

Feb 21

Closing Soon

2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner

Polymarket

⚽ Sports Closing Soon

Canada 56%

United States 30%

Finland 8%

Sweden 6%

France 1%

Italy 1%

Switzerland 1%

Slovakia 1%

Czech Republic 1%

Germany 1%

Denmark 1%

Latvia 1%

Volume

$2.2M

Open Int.

$1.8M

Ends

Feb 21

2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals

Polymarket ⚽ Sports

Norway 99%

$2.1M

$1.3M

Feb 21

Closing Soon

2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals

Polymarket

⚽ Sports Closing Soon

Norway 99%

the United States 1%

Japan 1%

Italy 1%

Austria 1%

Sweden 1%

Germany 1%

Netherlands 1%

France 1%

Switzerland 1%

China 1%

Canada 1%

Volume

$2.1M

Open Int.

$1.3M

Ends

Feb 21

UEFA Champions League Winner

Polymarket ⚽ Sports

Arsenal 20%

$1.0M

$190.3K

May 30

Active

UEFA Champions League Winner

Polymarket

⚽ Sports Active

Arsenal 20%

Bayern Munich 17%

Barcelona 12%

PSG 11%

Man City 10%

Liverpool 9%

Real Madrid 8%

Chelsea 5%

Inter 3%

Tottenham 2%

Atletico Madrid 2%

Newcastle 2%

Benfica 1%

Bodo Glimt 1%

Club Brugge 1%

Atalanta 1%

Leverkusen 1%

Olympiakos 1%

Monaco 1%

Sporting 1%

Galatasaray 1%

Juventus 1%

Dortmund 1%

Volume

$1.0M

Open Int.

$190.3K

Ends

May 30

105

Bitcoin price on Feb 17, 2026 at 9am EST?

Kalshi ₿ Crypto

$67,250 or above 100%

$126.0K

$133.9K

Feb 24

Closing Soon

105

Bitcoin price on Feb 17, 2026 at 9am EST?

Kalshi

₿ Crypto Closing Soon

$67,250 or above 100%

$67,000 or above 100%

$66,750 or above 100%

$59,500 or above 100%

$59,750 or above 100%

$60,000 or above 100%

$60,250 or above 100%

$60,500 or above 100%

$60,750 or above 100%

$61,000 or above 100%

$61,250 or above 100%

$61,500 or above 100%

$61,750 or above 100%

$62,000 or above 100%

$62,250 or above 100%

$62,500 or above 100%

$62,750 or above 100%

$63,000 or above 100%

$63,250 or above 100%

$63,500 or above 100%

$63,750 or above 100%

$64,000 or above 100%

$64,250 or above 100%

$64,500 or above 100%

$64,750 or above 100%

$65,000 or above 100%

$65,250 or above 100%

$65,500 or above 100%

$65,750 or above 100%

$66,000 or above 100%

$66,250 or above 100%

$66,500 or above 100%

$67,500 or above 98%

$67,750 or above 86%

$68,000 or above 48%

$68,250 or above 12%

$68,500 or above 3%

$68,750 or above 2%

$69,000 or above 1%

$69,250 or above 1%

$70,250 or above 1%

$69,500 or above 1%

$69,750 or above 1%

$70,000 or above 1%

$70,500 or above 1%

$70,750 or above 1%

$71,000 or above 1%

$71,250 or above 1%

$71,500 or above 1%

$71,750 or above 1%

$72,000 or above 1%

$72,250 or above 1%

$72,500 or above 1%

$72,750 or above 1%

$73,000 or above 1%

$73,250 or above 1%

$73,500 or above 1%

$73,750 or above 1%

$74,000 or above 1%

$74,250 or above 1%

$74,500 or above 1%

$74,750 or above 1%

$75,000 or above 1%

$75,250 or above 1%

$75,500 or above 1%

$75,750 or above 1%

$76,000 or above 1%

$76,250 or above 1%

$76,500 or above 1%

$76,750 or above 1%

$77,000 or above 1%

$77,250 or above 1%

$77,500 or above 1%

$77,750 or above 1%

$78,000 or above 1%

Volume

$126.0K

Open Int.

$133.9K

Ends

Feb 24

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket 📊 Economics

No 93%

$46.3M

$10.7M

Mar 17

Active

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket

📊 Economics Active

No 93%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting 7%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%

Volume

$46.3M

Open Int.

$10.7M

Ends

Mar 17

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair 96%

$45.0M

$46.3M

Dec 30

Active

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair 96%

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair 3%

Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair 1%

No 1%

Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair 1%

Volume

$45.0M

Open Int.

$46.3M

Ends

Dec 30

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

Gavin Newsom 28%

$33.9M

$2.7M

Nov 6

Active

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

Gavin Newsom 28%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10%

Kamala Harris 5%

Josh Shapiro 5%

Jon Ossoff 4%

Pete Buttigieg 4%

J.B. Pritzker 3%

Andy Beshear 3%

Rahm Emanuel 2%

Jon Stewart 2%

Mark Kelly 2%

Gretchen Whitmer 2%

Wes Moore 2%

Ruben Gallego 2%

Chelsea Clinton 1%

Tim Walz 1%

Zohran Mamdani 1%

Bernie Sanders 1%

George Clooney 1%

Liz Cheney 1%

Hillary Clinton 1%

Jasmine Crockett 1%

Kim Kardashian 1%

Gina Raimondo 1%

Michelle Obama 1%

Hunter Biden 1%

Raphael Warnock 1%

MrBeast 1%

Oprah Winfrey 1%

Chris Murphy 1%

Roy Cooper 1%

Barack Obama 1%

LeBron James 1%

Mark Cuban 1%

Andrew Yang 1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%

Beto O’Rourke 1%

Cory Booker 1%

Phil Murphy 1%

Jared Polis 1%

Stephen A. Smith 1%

John Fetterman 1%

Ro Khanna 1%

Volume

$33.9M

Open Int.

$2.7M

Ends

Nov 6

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

J.D. Vance 46%

$31.6M

$1.4M

Nov 6

Active

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

J.D. Vance 46%

Marco Rubio 12%

Donald Trump 5%

Ted Cruz 2%

Ron DeSantis 2%

Donald Trump Jr. 2%

Glenn Youngkin 2%

Tucker Carlson 2%

Mike Pence 1%

Kim Kardashian 1%

Katie Britt 1%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%

John Thune 1%

Kristi Noem 1%

Elon Musk 1%

Steve Bannon 1%

Greg Abbott 1%

Elise Stefanik 1%

Tom Brady 1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%

Byron Donalds 1%

Matt Gaetz 1%

Brian Kemp 1%

Erika Kirk 1%

Tulsi Gabbard 1%

Rand Paul 1%

Vivek Ramaswamy 1%

Josh Hawley 1%

Ivanka Trump 1%

Nikki Haley 1%

Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%

Thomas Massie 1%

Volume

$31.6M

Open Int.

$1.4M

Ends

Nov 6

What price will Bitcoin hit in February?

Polymarket ₿ Crypto

$75,000 37%

$23.4M

$13.1M

Feb 28

Active

What price will Bitcoin hit in February?

Polymarket

₿ Crypto Active

$75,000 37%

$60,000 23%

$80,000 12%

$55,000 10%

$85,000 4%

$50,000 4%

$90,000 2%

$150,000 1%

$35,000 1%

$125,000 1%

$95,000 1%

$100,000 1%

$45,000 1%

$40,000 1%

$120,000 1%

$105,000 1%

$110,000 1%

$115,000 1%

Volume

$23.4M

Open Int.

$13.1M

Ends

Feb 28

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

JD Vance 24%

$19.8M

$1.1M

Nov 6

Active

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

JD Vance 24%

Gavin Newsom 17%

Marco Rubio 8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6%

Kamala Harris 4%

Josh Shapiro 3%

Donald Trump 3%

Andy Beshear 2%

JB Pritzker 2%

Pete Buttigieg 2%

Jon Ossoff 2%

Tim Walz 1%

Greg Abbott 1%

Tulsi Gabbard 1%

LeBron James 1%

Kim Kardashian 1%

Michelle Obama 1%

Zohran Mamdani 1%

Vivek Ramaswamy 1%

Stephen Smith 1%

Glenn Youngkin 1%

Elon Musk 1%

Nikki Haley 1%

Jamie Dimon 1%

Gretchen Whitmer 1%

Donald Trump Jr. 1%

Ro Khanna 1%

Tucker Carlson 1%

Thomas Massie 1%

Wes Moore 1%

Ron DeSantis 1%

Ivanka Trump 1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%

Volume

$19.8M

Open Int.

$1.1M

Ends

Nov 6

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket ⚽ Sports

Spain 16%

$15.7M

$1.6M

Jul 19

Active

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket

⚽ Sports Active

Spain 16%

England 14%

France 12%

Argentina 10%

Brazil 9%

Portugal 7%

Germany 6%

Norway 3%

Netherlands 3%

Morocco 2%

Italy 2%

Colombia 2%

Belgium 2%

South Alabama 2%

New Zealand 1%

South Africa 1%

Scotland 1%

Canada 1%

Uzbekistan 1%

Jordan 1%

Curaçao 1%

Haiti 1%

Egypt 1%

South Korea 1%

Austria 1%

Cape Verde 1%

Senegal 1%

Switzerland 1%

Ecuador 1%

Tunisia 1%

Croatia 1%

Ivory Coast 1%

Saudi Arabia 1%

Uruguay 1%

Iran 1%

Qatar 1%

Japan 1%

Mexico 1%

Algeria 1%

Paraguay 1%

Ghana 1%

Australia 1%

Volume

$15.7M

Open Int.

$1.6M

Ends

Jul 19

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket ⚽ Sports

Oklahoma City Thunder 36%

$13.3M

$920.6K

Jun 30

Active

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket

⚽ Sports Active

Oklahoma City Thunder 36%

Denver Nuggets 13%

San Antonio Spurs 9%

Cleveland Cavaliers 7%

Detroit Pistons 7%

Boston Celtics 6%

New York Knicks 6%

Houston Rockets 4%

Minnesota Timberwolves 3%

Los Angeles Lakers 2%

Indiana Pacers 1%

Memphis Grizzlies 1%

Sacramento Kings 1%

Brooklyn Nets 1%

Washington Wizards 1%

Charlotte Hornets 1%

New Orleans Pelicans 1%

Los Angeles Clippers 1%

Utah Jazz 1%

Atlanta Hawks 1%

Chicago Bulls 1%

Milwaukee Bucks 1%

Dallas Mavericks 1%

Toronto Raptors 1%

Miami Heat 1%

Orlando Magic 1%

Portland Trail Blazers 1%

Phoenix Suns 1%

Golden State Warriors 1%

Philadelphia 76ers 1%

Volume

$13.3M

Open Int.

$920.6K

Ends

Jun 30

2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner

Polymarket ⚽ Sports

Canada 56%

$12.6M

$1.8M

Feb 21

Closing Soon

2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner

Polymarket

⚽ Sports Closing Soon

Canada 56%

United States 30%

Finland 8%

Sweden 6%

France 1%

Italy 1%

Switzerland 1%

Slovakia 1%

Czech Republic 1%

Germany 1%

Denmark 1%

Latvia 1%

Volume

$12.6M

Open Int.

$1.8M

Ends

Feb 21

UEFA Champions League Winner

Polymarket ⚽ Sports

Arsenal 20%

$9.5M

$275.5K

May 30

Active

UEFA Champions League Winner

Polymarket

⚽ Sports Active

Arsenal 20%

Bayern Munich 17%

Barcelona 12%

PSG 11%

Man City 10%

Liverpool 9%

Real Madrid 8%

Chelsea 5%

Inter 3%

Tottenham 2%

Atletico Madrid 2%

Newcastle 2%

Benfica 1%

Bodo Glimt 1%

Club Brugge 1%

Atalanta 1%

Leverkusen 1%

Olympiakos 1%

Monaco 1%

Sporting 1%

Galatasaray 1%

Juventus 1%

Dortmund 1%

Volume

$9.5M

Open Int.

$275.5K

Ends

May 30

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair 96%

$275.9M

$46.7M

Dec 30

Active

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair 96%

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair 3%

Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair 1%

No 1%

Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair 1%

Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair 1%

Volume

$275.9M

Open Int.

$46.7M

Ends

Dec 30

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

Gavin Newsom 28%

$175.8M

$10.1M

Nov 6

Active

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

Gavin Newsom 28%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10%

Kamala Harris 5%

Josh Shapiro 5%

Jon Ossoff 4%

Pete Buttigieg 4%

J.B. Pritzker 3%

Andy Beshear 3%

Rahm Emanuel 2%

Jon Stewart 2%

Mark Kelly 2%

Gretchen Whitmer 2%

Wes Moore 2%

Ruben Gallego 2%

Chelsea Clinton 1%

Tim Walz 1%

Zohran Mamdani 1%

Bernie Sanders 1%

George Clooney 1%

Liz Cheney 1%

Hillary Clinton 1%

Jasmine Crockett 1%

Kim Kardashian 1%

Gina Raimondo 1%

Michelle Obama 1%

Hunter Biden 1%

Raphael Warnock 1%

MrBeast 1%

Oprah Winfrey 1%

Chris Murphy 1%

Roy Cooper 1%

Barack Obama 1%

LeBron James 1%

Mark Cuban 1%

Andrew Yang 1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%

Beto O’Rourke 1%

Cory Booker 1%

Phil Murphy 1%

Jared Polis 1%

Stephen A. Smith 1%

John Fetterman 1%

Ro Khanna 1%

Volume

$175.8M

Open Int.

$10.1M

Ends

Nov 6

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket 📊 Economics

No 93%

$125.3M

$10.7M

Mar 17

Active

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket

📊 Economics Active

No 93%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting 7%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%

Volume

$125.3M

Open Int.

$10.7M

Ends

Mar 17

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

J.D. Vance 46%

$104.2M

$1.4M

Nov 6

Active

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

J.D. Vance 46%

Marco Rubio 12%

Donald Trump 5%

Ted Cruz 2%

Ron DeSantis 2%

Donald Trump Jr. 2%

Glenn Youngkin 2%

Tucker Carlson 2%

Mike Pence 1%

Kim Kardashian 1%

Katie Britt 1%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%

John Thune 1%

Kristi Noem 1%

Elon Musk 1%

Steve Bannon 1%

Greg Abbott 1%

Elise Stefanik 1%

Tom Brady 1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%

Byron Donalds 1%

Matt Gaetz 1%

Brian Kemp 1%

Erika Kirk 1%

Tulsi Gabbard 1%

Rand Paul 1%

Vivek Ramaswamy 1%

Josh Hawley 1%

Ivanka Trump 1%

Nikki Haley 1%

Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%

Thomas Massie 1%

Volume

$104.2M

Open Int.

$1.4M

Ends

Nov 6

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket 🏛️ Politics

JD Vance 24%

$86.4M

$1.1M

Nov 6

Active

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket

🏛️ Politics Active

JD Vance 24%

Gavin Newsom 17%

Marco Rubio 8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6%

Kamala Harris 4%

Josh Shapiro 3%

Donald Trump 3%

Andy Beshear 2%

JB Pritzker 2%

Pete Buttigieg 2%

Jon Ossoff 2%

Tim Walz 1%

Greg Abbott 1%

Tulsi Gabbard 1%

LeBron James 1%

Kim Kardashian 1%

Michelle Obama 1%

Zohran Mamdani 1%

Vivek Ramaswamy 1%

Stephen Smith 1%

Glenn Youngkin 1%

Elon Musk 1%

Nikki Haley 1%

Jamie Dimon 1%

Gretchen Whitmer 1%

Donald Trump Jr. 1%

Ro Khanna 1%

Tucker Carlson 1%

Thomas Massie 1%

Wes Moore 1%

Ron DeSantis 1%

Ivanka Trump 1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%

Volume

$86.4M

Open Int.

$1.1M

Ends

Nov 6

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket ⚽ Sports

Oklahoma City Thunder 36%

$78.7M

$975.3K

Jun 30

Active

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket

⚽ Sports Active

Oklahoma City Thunder 36%

Denver Nuggets 13%

San Antonio Spurs 9%

Cleveland Cavaliers 7%

Detroit Pistons 7%

Boston Celtics 6%

New York Knicks 6%

Houston Rockets 4%

Minnesota Timberwolves 3%

Los Angeles Lakers 2%

Indiana Pacers 1%

Memphis Grizzlies 1%

Sacramento Kings 1%

Brooklyn Nets 1%

Washington Wizards 1%

Charlotte Hornets 1%

New Orleans Pelicans 1%

Los Angeles Clippers 1%

Utah Jazz 1%

Atlanta Hawks 1%

Chicago Bulls 1%

Milwaukee Bucks 1%

Dallas Mavericks 1%

Toronto Raptors 1%

Miami Heat 1%

Orlando Magic 1%

Portland Trail Blazers 1%

Phoenix Suns 1%

Golden State Warriors 1%

Philadelphia 76ers 1%

Volume

$78.7M

Open Int.

$975.3K

Ends

Jun 30

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket ⚽ Sports

Spain 16%

$74.6M

$2.0M

Jul 19

Active

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket

⚽ Sports Active

Spain 16%

England 14%

France 12%

Argentina 10%

Brazil 9%

Portugal 7%

Germany 6%

Norway 3%

Netherlands 3%

Morocco 2%

Italy 2%

Colombia 2%

Belgium 2%

South Alabama 2%

New Zealand 1%

South Africa 1%

Scotland 1%

Canada 1%

Uzbekistan 1%

Jordan 1%

Curaçao 1%

Haiti 1%

Egypt 1%

South Korea 1%

Austria 1%

Cape Verde 1%

Senegal 1%

Switzerland 1%

Ecuador 1%

Tunisia 1%

Croatia 1%

Ivory Coast 1%

Saudi Arabia 1%

Uruguay 1%

Iran 1%

Qatar 1%

Japan 1%

Mexico 1%

Algeria 1%

Paraguay 1%

Ghana 1%

Australia 1%

Volume

$74.6M

Open Int.

$2.0M

Ends

Jul 19

What price will Bitcoin hit in February?

Polymarket ₿ Crypto

$75,000 37%

$52.5M

$12.5M

Feb 28

Active

What price will Bitcoin hit in February?

Polymarket

₿ Crypto Active

$75,000 37%

$60,000 23%

$80,000 12%

$55,000 10%

$85,000 4%

$50,000 4%

$90,000 2%

$150,000 1%

$35,000 1%

$125,000 1%

$95,000 1%

$100,000 1%

$45,000 1%

$40,000 1%

$120,000 1%

$105,000 1%

$110,000 1%

$115,000 1%

Volume

$52.5M

Open Int.

$12.5M

Ends

Feb 28

English Premier League Winner

Polymarket ⚽ Sports

Arsenal 68%

$45.4M

$1.5M

May 26

Active

English Premier League Winner

Polymarket

⚽ Sports Active

Arsenal 68%

Manchester City 28%

Manchester United 1%

Brentford 1%

Leeds 1%

West Ham 1%

Nottm Forest 1%

Crystal Palace 1%

Aston Villa 1%

Everton 1%

Newcastle 1%

Bournemouth 1%

Brighton 1%

Liverpool 1%

Fulham 1%

Chelsea 1%

Sunderland 1%

Volume

$45.4M

Open Int.

$1.5M

Ends

May 26

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kalshi 🏛️ Politics

Kevin Warsh 95%

$35.0M

$90.9M

Jan 20

Active

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kalshi

🏛️ Politics Active

Kevin Warsh 95%

Judy Shelton 4%

Rick Rieder 1%

Kevin Hassett 1%

Michelle Bowman 1%

Christopher Waller 1%

Stephen Miran 1%

Scott Bessent 1%

Bill Pulte 1%

David Zervos 1%

Donald Trump (Himself) 1%

Jerome Powell 1%

David Malpass 1%

Howard Lutnick 1%

Lorie Logan 1%

Arthur Laffer 1%

Larry Kudlow 1%

James Bullard 1%

Marc Sumerlin 1%

Philip Jefferson 1%

Larry Lindsey 1%

Janet Yellen 1%

Ron Paul 1%

Volume

$35.0M

Open Int.

$90.9M

Ends

Jan 20

Category Breakdown

Compare volume and activity across platforms by category

Category	Markets	Volume	Change
Politics	8,599	$1.5M	-21.6%
Sports	156,281	$98.0M	-51.5%
Crypto	3,716	$14.9M	-30.9%
Economics	2,328	$476.2K	-7.9%
Financials	518	$38.7K	-18.8%
Tech & Science	329	$132.5K	-1.2%
Culture	4,922	$530.6K	-10.1%
Climate	532	$981.1K	+23.4%
Misc	1,080	$10.5K	+420.1%
World	10,265	$5.1K	-76.5%

Category	Markets	Volume	Change
Politics	5,034	$42.5M	+12.1%
Sports	12,626	$52.0M	-13.7%
Crypto	2,157	$38.0M	+0.2%
Economics	921	$6.2M	-34.9%
Finance	1,475	$2.1M	-9.4%
Tech	703	$10.4M	+15%
Culture	1,488	$2.7M	-19.7%
Weather	461	$2.5M	-11%
Misc	6,024	$42.8M	-0.1%
Mentions	46	$42.8K	-58.8%

Category	Markets	Volume	Change
Politics	14,370	$25.9M	+14.8%
Sports	357,277	$1.3B	-5.5%
Crypto	13,230	$145.4M	+21.5%
Economics	1,431	$8.6M	-56.6%
Financials	1,269	$2.4M	-16.1%
Tech & Science	1,107	$2.0M	-43.2%
Culture	13,860	$5.5M	-82%
Climate	1,557	$6.9M	-3.8%
Misc	9,383	$2.0M	+46.7%
World	33,005	$4.9M	-7.6%

Category	Markets	Volume	Change
Politics	4,365	$312.0M	-19.1%
Sports	13,425	$557.3M	-19.3%
Crypto	3,157	$244.9M	+1.8%
Economics	919	$71.9M	+25.4%
Finance	1,609	$27.8M	-5.7%
Tech	761	$65.4M	-17.8%
Culture	1,560	$26.6M	-9.3%
Weather	1,014	$17.5M	+57.4%
Misc	7,420	$287.2M	+13.9%
Mentions	52	$1.4M	+190%

Category	Markets	Volume	Change
Politics	28,471	$150.6M	+456.8%
Sports	1,727,983	$5.4B	+75.1%
Crypto	45,531	$449.1M	+435.9%
Economics	3,297	$42.6M	+211.9%
Financials	4,460	$10.4M	+73.6%
Tech & Science	2,178	$7.5M	+99.3%
Culture	32,337	$54.0M	+288.5%
Climate	9,290	$32.2M	+39.5%
Misc	45,088	$85.0M	-91.9%
World	83,839	$16.3M	+73.8%

Category	Markets	Volume	Change
Politics	6,061	$1.6B	+61%
Sports	39,053	$2.9B	+38.9%
Crypto	7,762	$1.0B	-2%
Economics	1,467	$529.5M	+14.2%
Finance	3,622	$143.3M	+70.7%
Tech	1,407	$312.2M	+34.7%
Culture	3,196	$92.5M	-47.8%
Weather	2,923	$50.4M	+92.1%
Misc	27,462	$898.0M	+378.4%
Mentions	112	$3.7M	+230%

Latest news making headlines

Feb. 13: Super Bowl 60 produces $1.63 billion in combined trading volume between Kalshi and Polymarket, a figure that marks the biggest single day of trading on record for prediction markets.
Feb. 11: Robinhood reports 8.5 billion event contracts in Q4 2025 in a letter to shareholders.
Feb. 6: Sleeper adds Kalshi prediction markets to its app in time for the Super Bowl.
Feb. 4: Yahoo Finance launches a prediction markets hub, powered by Polymarket.
Feb. 3: Jupiter announced that it will bring Polymarket to the Solana blockchain for the the first time.
Feb. 3: Crypto.com announced the launch of OG.com, a new prediction market site where users can borrow against bet sizes and margin trading.
Jan. 30: Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev announced that the platform will add self-custody, lending, staking, and 24/7 trading for tokenized U.S. stocks in the coming months.
Jan. 28: Coinbase launches its new prediction market, tied to Kalshi. Available in all 50 states and the full spread of sports.
Jan. 26: Prediction markets generate $6.18 billion in weekly notional volume, setting yet another all-time high.
Jan. 21: Portugal blocks access to Polymarket following reports of large trading volume on the country’s presidential election markets.
Jan. 20: CME, which provides markets for FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions, filed three new product certifications. The three new markets include Super Bowl touchdown props.
Jan. 19: The New York Stock Exchange announced that it’s building a new platform that will allow tokenized stocks and ETFs trading 24/7.
Jan. 19: Prediction markets generate $5.9 million in total notional volume, include new all-time weekly highs for both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Jan. 16: FanDuel Predicts becomes available in all 50 U.S. states, making FanDuel the first sports gaming operator to offer prediction markets nationwide.
Jan. 15: High Roller Technologies announced a partnership with Crypto.com, with intentions to enter the U.S. prediction markets space.
Jan. 14: Kalshi signs pro golfer Bryson DeChambeau as an ambassador, marking the first athletic endorsement deal for the company.
Jan. 14: Sleeper gets NFA approval to begin offering sports prediction markets.
Jan. 12: Prediction markets generate $5.23 billion in weekly notional volume, with both Kalshi and Polymarket setting new weekly highs.
Jan. 12: New York lawmakers reintroduce a bill (AB A9251) that aims to restrict certain kinds of prediction markets.
Jan. 9: Polymarket becomes the exclusive prediction market partner of the Golden Globes through a newly-announced partnership.
Jan. 8: Gemini adds sports markets to its Gemini Predictions app, just in time for the start of the NFL playoffs.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are a venue for trading contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. Sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow participants to buy and sell shares in contracts tied to various markets, including politics, economics, pop culture events, and weather forecasts.

Contracts are the financial instruments used to facilitate trade in prediction markets. At most sites, traders can buy “Yes” or “No” shares on the outcome, with prices ranging from 1 cent to $1. The price serves as an indicator of the perceived likelihood of an event happening. As an example, consider the following market for an economic indicator:

Fed Decision: 50+ bps decrease
Yes: $0.017
No: $0.984

Using the contracts’ pricing as a guide, traders view it as less likely that the funds rate will not decrease when this contract closes. If their speculation proves to be correct, they would earn $1 per contract. Meanwhile, those who hold “Yes” shares would see the value of their holdings go to zero.

As prediction markets remain open, the price of contracts will fluctuate as traders buy and sell shares in response to new developments. Naturally, there are no guarantees that the market pricing will translate into exactly what will happen.

However, it is a “wisdom of the crowds” indicator that points to an outcome’s overall probability and likelihood.

How prediction markets work

Prediction market apps function similarly to other financial markets. Traders buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a future event. For comparison, stock market traders buy and sell shares of companies, while popular markets on a commodities exchange include the price of oil or gold.

In all of the above, traders are speculating on a result in hopes of being correct and ultimately earning a profit. For prediction markets, there are three main components to know:

Contracts: These are the financial instruments that are traded and tied to the outcome of future events.
Participants: Those who are trading in the markets and providing liquidity as they buy and sell based on their predictions.
Mechanisms: The platforms that make the markets available, calculate prices, and facilitate transactions.

Most prediction platforms feature binary options markets, which translates into participants choosing “Yes” or “No” on the available contracts that they are interested in speculating on. The apps make money by charging a fee that varies based on the price of the market. Using the Crypto.com app and a $100 trade as an example, the fee is capped at a maximum of $1.74.

As you view the available contracts on prediction market platforms, you’ll notice that the total value of “Yes” and “No” options does not equal exactly $1. For example:

Winner of the March Madness tournament semifinal
Duke: $0.72
Houston: $0.29

The total of the two prices works out to $1.01. This is due to the spread, which is the difference in demand. There is high demand for a market such as this one with a tight spread. If the spread is more prominent, such as $0.05, there’s lower demand and likely less volume and liquidity in the market for that contract.

Kalshi and Polymarket provide diverse market options for traders to choose from, such as:

The pricing of contracts can be viewed as the market’s collective “best guess” on the likelihood of an event outcome.

Most popular markets

You can trade on a wide range of real-world events on prediction market platforms. Contracts are available on outcomes in a variety of markets, including:

Sports: Game results, championships, build combo trades
Politics: Elections, candidate nominations, legislative outcomes
Economics: Central bank rates, inflation, indicators
Crypto: Cryptocurrency prices, market events
Culture: Award shows, celebrity news, viral trends
Climate: Temperature records, storm predictions
Companies & Financials: Corporate achievements, stock market trends, index prices
Tech & Science: Tech adoption milestones, scientific breakthroughs
Health & World: Health and wellness issues, global news, and developments
Mentions: Predictions on words and phrases used by public figures

In terms of overall coverage, Kalshi and Polymarket provide the broadest range of options. Crypto.com is currently limited to sports, PredictIt focuses on politics, while other niche platforms have yet to capture a good deal of mainstream attention. Some platforms allow users to propose new markets, while others curate their offerings centrally.

In terms of overall usage, Polymarket leads in global web traffic, while Kalshi is tops among US-regulated options. Beyond the trading aspect, prediction markets are often cited for their forecast accuracy. The platforms essentially aggregate the opinions of traders, offering a “wisdom of the crowds’ look at the probability of an event or outcome happening.

How does pricing work on contracts?

Prediction market contracts are binary options that pay out a fixed amount. It’s typically set at $1 if the event occurs, and $0 if it does not. Before the contract settles, prices will fluctuate between those ranges as traders enter and exit positions.

When viewing a contract offering on a prediction market platform, the pricing reflects the market’s collective estimate of the probability that the event will happen. Consider the following example:

Contract: “Will the Fed raise interest rates in May?”
Pricing: $0.70 for “Yes” and $0.32 for “No.”
Implication: The market implies a 70% chance of a rate hike and a 32% chance it won’t happen.

As you’ll notice, the pricing doesn’t exactly equal $1, while the implied probability is greater than 100%. Small differences such as these are common and often reflect the spread between bid and ask pricing or trading fees. Markets with higher liquidity tend to have more stable prices and tighter spreads, while wider price swings can happen in less active contracts.

While contracts remain open, prices will continue to move as traders react to new information and shifting sentiment, providing a real-time snapshot of the overall market sentiment. At settlement, the resolution for a correct contract call is $1, while the other side will drop to $0.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket fee comparison

The trading fees and costs on prediction markets can impact your overall returns. The table below has a breakdown of the main fees you’ll encounter on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Fee Type	Kalshi	Polymarket
Trading Fee	$0.07–$1.74 per 100 contracts (varies by contract price; see example)	No trading fee
Profit/Settlement	None	None
Deposit Fee	ACH free; Debit card 2%	None (USDC only)
Withdrawal Fee	ACH free; Debit card $2	1.5% on USDC withdrawals

Kalshi’s trading fee is variable and depends on the contract price. For 100 contracts, it can be as low as $0.07 and up to $1.74. There are no settlement fees to worry about. Meanwhile, Polymarket does not charge any trading or settlement fees.

To illustrate the difference, assume that you’re buying 100 contracts at $0.55 on either platform. At Kalshi, this price point triggers the maximum fee for 100 contracts of $1.74, while Polymarket charges $0. You’d be in for a total of $56.74 at the former, and $55 at the latter.

If you make the right call, the contract settles at $1 in both spots. At Kalshi, you’ll get back $100, less your fee of $1.74, for a total of $98.26. Polymarket will return an even $100 since there are no fees attached.

Beyond trading and settlement, be sure to consider the deposit and withdrawal fees that are outlined above. Traders should also be aware of potential “hidden costs” like bid-ask spreads, and the potential challenges of exiting positions in less liquid markets.

Profit potential for betting on predictions

Prediction markets offer opportunities for traders to profit by buying and selling contracts. In its simplest form, the goal is to make the correct calls so your contracts settle at full value. Traders can also aim to “buy low and sell high.”

Strategies for doing just that include looking for mispriced outcomes and acting before the rest of the market catches on. While the potential for returns is real, profits aren’t guaranteed. Market efficiency, liquidity, and timing all play a big role in shaping your results.

How much can you make by buying a low-priced contract?

Buying low-priced contracts can be enticing due to the potential for big returns. Naturally, there’s plenty of risk here. The contract is priced low for a reason, namely that the chances of that outcome happening aren’t great.

Let’s consider the following fictitious example for an NBA Playoff game in which there’s a clear favorite to win, at least as far as the market is concerned.

Underdog contract price: $0.10 (10% chance)
Quantity: You buy 100 contracts for a total of $10.
Kalshi trading fee: $0.63 (for 100 contracts at this price point)
Total upfront cost: $10 + $0.63 = $10.63
Outcome: Underdog wins; contracts settle at $1 each
Payout: 100 × $1 = $100
Net profit: $100 – $10.63 = $89.37

In this case, a small investment yields a large return if the prediction is correct. Seeking out low-priced contracts with realistic profit potential can be part of a well-rounded trading approach, but remember to account for the increased risks of trading less-likely outcomes.

What happens if you sell your contract before the event?

Prediction markets aren’t just about holding contracts to settlement. You can also sell your position before the event concludes if the odds move in your favor. This is especially common in political markets, where news cycles and polling shifts can cause prices to swing rapidly.

Consider the following as an example: “Will Candidate X win the election?”

Polymarket contract price: $0.45 (45% chance)..
Quantity: You buy 50 contracts for a total of $22.50.
New developments and polling substantially boosts Candidate X’s chances.
The contract price rises to $0.70.
You decide to sell all 50 contracts at $0.70 each for a total of $35
Polymarket trading fee: $0 (no trading fee; only a withdrawal fee applies if you cash out)
Net profit: $35 – $22.50 = $12.50
If you withdraw your USDC, a 1.5% withdrawal fee applies: $35 × 0.015 = $0.53

By selling before the event, you lock in your gains and avoid the uncertainty of the final outcome. This approach can be especially useful when you think the market has overreacted or you want to cash out and take your profit after a favorable news development.

Can you profit by betting ‘No’ on an event?

Prediction markets also allow you to profit by betting against an outcome happening. This is where you would buy the “No” side of the equation when you anticipate that the contract will ultimately resolve to that end result.

Consider the following example: “Will U.S. inflation exceed 4% this quarter?”

Kalshi “No” contract price: $0.60 (60% chance).
Quantity: You buy 75 contracts for a total of $45.
Kalshi trading fee: $1.50 (at $0.02 per contract for this price point)
Total upfront cost: $45 + $1.50 = $46.50
If inflation comes in below 4%, each contract settles at $1
Payout: 75 × $1 = $75
Net profit: $75 – $46.50 = $28.50

Taking the “No” side can be a valuable strategy when you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of an event. Regardless of which outcome you choose, stick to your comfort level for both contract pricing and the total amount of your trades.

Are prediction markets the same as gambling?

Prediction markets are not, by definition, the same as gambling. The former is considered a tool for forecasting outcomes based on probabilities. Casino, sports, and lottery are generally viewed as games of chance. That said, there are similarities between the two, most notably that the goal is to turn a profit.

From the perspective of a prediction platform, the contracts are on equal footing to a commodities exchange. Using the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as an example, futures and options are traded on stock indexes, precious metals, energy commodities, and more. Traders take positions on the various instruments based on their expectations of what will happen.

In a prediction market, traders are doing the same thing, albeit in a broader variety of options, such as political, cultural, and economic events. The gambling label has been attached to these platforms as they have risen in popularity, even more so since the introduction of contracts on various sporting events, such as the winner of March Madness or the next Super Bowl winner.

Are prediction markets legal?

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi, PredictIt, and ForecastEx are currently available across the US. However, questions on their overall legality continue to linger. A case between Kalshi and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission remains unresolved. Kalshi won the latest round, but litigation is ongoing.

The platform offered contracts for the 2024 US elections, and has since expanded into sports futures. Meanwhile, states like Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio have presented the company with cease-and-desist letters, essentially arguing that they’re offering unregulated sports betting.

If interest in prediction markets is a guide, then the future looks incredibly bright. Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted extensive volume for tentpole events that it has offered contracts for, including the 2024 US elections, the Super Bowl, and March Madness.

Understanding the math of prediction market contracts

Prediction market contract pricing is generally straightforward. You can view an available market and quickly determine the implied probability of an event happening, at least as far as the overall market sentiment is concerned.

That said, the actual trading of contracts takes a little more doing on the calculation front. You can use the below formulas and examples as a cheat sheet to help gain even more of a comfort level with prediction market trading.

How to calculate the number of contracts you can buy

Formula: Number of Contracts = (Available Capital) ÷ (Contract Price + Fees)

Example:

You want to trade $50.
Each contract you’re interested in costs $0.25.
Kalshi fee: $0.02 per contract at this price point.
Calculation: $50 ÷ ($0.25 + $0.02) ≈ 192 contracts

Estimating potential profit and loss

Formula: Profit = (Sell Price – Buy Price) × Number of Contracts – Fees

Example:

You buy 100 contracts at $0.30 and sell at $0.60.
Profit = ($0.60 – $0.30) × 100 = $30
Kalshi fee: $1.68 (for 100 contracts at $0.60)
Net profit = $30 – $1.68 = $28.32

Finding your break-even price

Formula: Break-even Price = (Buy Price + Total Fees) ÷ Number of Contracts

Example:

You buy 50 contracts at $0.40, for a total of $20.
Total fees if you sold at the same price: $1 ($0.02 per contract).
Break-even = ($20 + $1) ÷ 50 = $0.42 per contract
You need to sell above $0.42 to make a profit.

By taking the time to understand these quick calculations, you could spot appealing opportunities that much quicker. As an added benefit, you’ll be better equipped to manage risk and make more informed trades.

Risks to consider when trading in prediction markets

Trading in prediction markets can be entertaining and potentially profitable, but it’s not devoid of risk. Understanding the potential pitfalls can help you mitigate unnecessary mistakes and ultimately make more informed decisions. Key risks to consider include:

Unexpected outcomes: There’s always the potential for a complete loss of your stake, even when the odds seem overwhelmingly in your favor.
Low liquidity: Certain markets attract a limited amount of volume, which can make it difficult to buy or sell contracts at fair prices.
Platform issues: While top platforms tend to operate without lengthy interruptions, there are simply no guarantees when it comes to security or technical glitches.
Regulatory environment: Prediction markets are soaring in popularity and readily accessible, but are also subject to developments from ongoing legal challenges.
Distorted prices: Biases, groupthink, manipulation, and misinformation could all impact contract pricing in both high- and low-volume markets.

If you trade in prediction markets, there is risk. However, you can take steps to help manage it better. At the top of the list, you should only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed with trading, no matter what the odds may suggest.

Next, stay informed about what’s happening. Knowing what’s going on with the regulatory front can help you make better decisions on where to park your funds. Lastly, stick to what you know and don’t blindly chase volume. After all, the herd isn’t always correct.

About The Author

Cheryle Shepstone

Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-check. Before DeFi Rate, she led content and growth strategy at Catena Media, where she helped shape content and revenue strategy for regulated and financial markets. She has 20 years of experience in research and marketing strategy

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