Home | Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets: Real-time Data & Volume Aggregator

Our live dashboard tracks the prediction market landscape in real-time, comparing Kalshi and Polymarket across the metrics that matter. Track daily, weekly and YTD volume across individual contracts. This includes active markets, transaction counts, and category-level breakdowns. The top two prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket posted a new combined record $5.35B in weekly notional volume for the week of March 2-8, despite a slower sports calendar. If you are looking for an exchange, see our list of prediction markets here.

Prediction markets are a real-time signal for everything from Fed decisions to election outcomes. Whether you’re comparing Kalshi vs. Polymarket for arbitrage opportunities or tracking which platform dominates specific categories, this is your central hub.

Live Data
Weekly Notional Volume Total USD value of contracts traded during the last complete calendar week.
$5.4B
K Kalshi
$2.9B (53%)
P Polymarket
$2.5B (47%)
U Polymarket US
$5.9M (0%)
Active Markets Number of prediction markets currently open for trading on each platform.
430,164
K Kalshi
394,259 (92%)
P Polymarket
35,362 (8%)
U Polymarket US
543 (0%)
Weekly Transactions Total number of trades executed during the last complete calendar week.
46,301,592
K Kalshi
20,041,183 (43%)
P Polymarket
26,260,409 (57%)
U Polymarket US
— (—)
Open Interest Total USD value of unsettled contracts currently held by traders.
$932.4M
K Kalshi
$496.0M (53%)
P Polymarket
$434.8M (47%)
U Polymarket US
$1.6M (0%)
Last updated: March 14, 2026 at 6:39 AM PDT

Kalshi
CFTC Regulated
Volume (rolling)
24H —
7D $1.2B -20.2%
30D $6.3B +5.8%
Top Categories (24h)
1 ⚽ Sports $147.4M
2 ₿ Crypto $18.2M
3 🏛️ Politics $1.3M
Top Markets (24h)
1
Iowa St. at Arizona
⚽ Sports $7.9M
2
Wisconsin at Illinois
⚽ Sports $6.4M
3
George Washington at Saint Louis
🎭 Culture $4.9M
Polymarket
Decentralized Platform
Volume (rolling)
24H $336.9M -9.5%
7D $2.8B +19.8%
30D $9.3B +22.3%
Top Categories (24h)
1 ⚽ Sports $94.5M
2 📦 Misc $62.2M
3 🏛️ Politics $44.0M
Top Markets (24h)
1
Fed decision in March?
📊 Economics $17.0M
2
Suns vs. Raptors
⚽ Sports $7.1M
3
Timberwolves vs. Warriors
⚽ Sports $6.1M

Top Markets by Volume

Highest trading activity across platforms

1
Fed decision in March?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
No 100%
$17.0M
$38.9M
Mar 17
Closing Soon
1

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Closing Soon
No 100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Volume
$17.0M
Open Int.
$38.9M
Ends
Mar 17
2
Iowa St. at Arizona
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Arizona Wildcats Outcome
$7.9M
—
Mar 13
Closed
2

Iowa St. at Arizona

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Arizona Wildcats
Volume $7.9M
3
Suns vs. Raptors
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Raptors Outcome
$7.1M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
3

Suns vs. Raptors

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Raptors
Volume $7.1M
4
Wisconsin at Illinois
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Wisconsin Badgers Outcome
$6.4M
—
Mar 13
Closed
4

Wisconsin at Illinois

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Wisconsin Badgers
Volume $6.4M
5
Timberwolves vs. Warriors
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Timberwolves Outcome
$6.1M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
5

Timberwolves vs. Warriors

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Timberwolves
Volume $6.1M
6
Knicks vs. Pacers
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Knicks Outcome
$5.7M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
6

Knicks vs. Pacers

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Knicks
Volume $5.7M
7
George Washington at Saint Louis
Kalshi 🎭 Culture
Saint Louis Outcome
$4.9M
—
Mar 13
Closed
7

George Washington at Saint Louis

Kalshi
🎭 Culture Closed
Outcome Saint Louis
Volume $4.9M
8
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
March 31 Outcome
$4.8M
$0
Dec 30
Closed
8

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome March 31
Volume $4.8M
9
North Texas at Tulsa
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Tulsa Outcome
$4.6M
—
Mar 13
Closed
9

North Texas at Tulsa

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Tulsa
Volume $4.6M
10
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 24%
$4.5M
$10.0M
Nov 6
Active
10

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Kamala Harris 6%
Jon Ossoff 5%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
Mark Kelly 3%
Wes Moore 2%
J.B. Pritzker 2%
James Talarico 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
Ruben Gallego 2%
Ro Khanna 2%
Tim Walz 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Cory Booker 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
George Clooney 1%
Jared Polis 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Rahm Emanuel 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Stephen A. Smith 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Hunter Biden 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
LeBron James 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
MrBeast 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Volume
$4.5M
Open Int.
$10.0M
Ends
Nov 6
11
New Mexico at San Diego St.
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
San Diego State Outcome
$4.5M
—
Mar 14
Closed
11

New Mexico at San Diego St.

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome San Diego State
Volume $4.5M
12
Oklahoma at Arkansas
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Arkansas Outcome
$4.5M
—
Mar 13
Closed
12

Oklahoma at Arkansas

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Arkansas
Volume $4.5M
13
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
Polymarket 💰 Finance
$75,000 68%
$4.3M
$8.4M
Mar 31
Active
13

What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Polymarket
💰 Finance Active
$75,000 68%
$65,000 43%
$80,000 27%
$60,000 20%
$55,000 9%
$85,000 9%
$50,000 4%
$90,000 3%
$45,000 2%
$150,000 1%
$95,000 1%
$100,000 1%
$110,000 1%
$20,000 1%
$40,000 1%
$35,000 1%
$105,000 1%
$25,000 1%
$30,000 1%
Volume
$4.3M
Open Int.
$8.4M
Ends
Mar 31
14
New Orleans at Houston
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Houston Rockets Outcome
$4.2M
—
Mar 13
Closed
14

New Orleans at Houston

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Houston Rockets
Volume $4.2M
15
Ole Miss at Alabama
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Ole Miss Outcome
$3.8M
—
Mar 13
Closed
15

Ole Miss at Alabama

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Ole Miss
Volume $3.8M
16
Minnesota at Golden State
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Minnesota Outcome
$3.6M
—
Mar 13
Closed
16

Minnesota at Golden State

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Minnesota
Volume $3.6M
17
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
FUT Esports Outcome
$3.6M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
17

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome FUT Esports
Volume $3.6M
18
Phoenix at Toronto
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Toronto Raptors Outcome
$3.6M
—
Mar 13
Closed
18

Phoenix at Toronto

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Toronto Raptors
Volume $3.6M
19
Bitcoin above ___ on March 13?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$70,000 Outcome
$3.4M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
19

Bitcoin above ___ on March 13?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome $70,000
Volume $3.4M
20
UCLA at Michigan St.
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
UCLA Outcome
$3.4M
—
Mar 13
Closed
20

UCLA at Michigan St.

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome UCLA
Volume $3.4M
21
Ohio St. at Michigan
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Michigan Wolverines Outcome
$3.3M
—
Mar 13
Closed
21

Ohio St. at Michigan

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Michigan Wolverines
Volume $3.3M
22
Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Vanderbilt Outcome
$3.3M
—
Mar 13
Closed
22

Tennessee at Vanderbilt

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Vanderbilt
Volume $3.3M
23
Grizzlies vs. Pistons
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Pistons Outcome
$3.2M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
23

Grizzlies vs. Pistons

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Pistons
Volume $3.2M
24
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Cavaliers Outcome
$3.1M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
24

Cavaliers vs. Mavericks

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Cavaliers
Volume $3.1M
25
Elon Musk # tweets March 6 - March 13, 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
360–379 Outcome
$3.1M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
25

Elon Musk # tweets March 6 - March 13, 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome 360–379
Volume $3.1M
26
Bulls vs. Clippers
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Clippers Outcome
$3.0M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
26

Bulls vs. Clippers

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Clippers
Volume $3.0M
27
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Trail Blazers Outcome
$2.7M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
27

Jazz vs. Trail Blazers

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Trail Blazers
Volume $2.7M
28
Iran strikes Israel on...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Yes 97%
$2.6M
$1.9M
Feb 27
Closed
28

Iran strikes Israel on...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome —
Volume $2.6M
29
Pelicans vs. Rockets
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Rockets Outcome
$2.5M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
29

Pelicans vs. Rockets

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Rockets
Volume $2.5M
30
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
December 31 69%
$2.3M
$9.5M
May 30
Active
30

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
December 31 69%
June 30 59%
May 31 53%
April 30 41%
April 15 30%
March 31 19%
March 15 1%
Volume
$2.3M
Open Int.
$9.5M
Ends
May 30
1
Fed decision in March?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
No 100%
$126.2M
$38.9M
Mar 17
Closing Soon
1

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Closing Soon
No 100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Volume
$126.2M
Open Int.
$38.9M
Ends
Mar 17
2
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
March 31 Outcome
$47.9M
$0
Dec 30
Closed
2

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome March 31
Volume $47.9M
3
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
J.D. Vance 39%
$41.0M
$10.5M
Nov 6
Active
3

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
J.D. Vance 39%
Marco Rubio 28%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Donald Trump 2%
Thomas Massie 2%
Tucker Carlson 2%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%
Tom Brady 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
John Thune 1%
Elise Stefanik 1%
Byron Donalds 1%
Mike Pence 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Steve Bannon 1%
Rand Paul 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Katie Britt 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Brian Kemp 1%
Erika Kirk 1%
Ted Cruz 1%
Matt Gaetz 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%
Volume
$41.0M
Open Int.
$10.5M
Ends
Nov 6
4
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 24%
$34.4M
$11.2M
Nov 6
Active
4

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Kamala Harris 6%
Jon Ossoff 5%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
Mark Kelly 3%
Wes Moore 2%
J.B. Pritzker 2%
James Talarico 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
Ruben Gallego 2%
Ro Khanna 2%
Tim Walz 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Cory Booker 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
George Clooney 1%
Jared Polis 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Rahm Emanuel 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Stephen A. Smith 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Hunter Biden 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
LeBron James 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
MrBeast 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Volume
$34.4M
Open Int.
$11.2M
Ends
Nov 6
5
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
JD Vance 20%
$23.2M
$3.8M
Nov 6
Active
5

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
JD Vance 20%
Gavin Newsom 17%
Marco Rubio 16%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Jon Ossoff 3%
Kamala Harris 3%
Josh Shapiro 3%
Andy Beshear 2%
Donald Trump 2%
Tucker Carlson 2%
Ron DeSantis 2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
LeBron James 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Stephen Smith 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
James Talarico 1%
Thomas Massie 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
JB Pritzker 1%
Volume
$23.2M
Open Int.
$3.8M
Ends
Nov 6
6
English Premier League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 82%
$22.2M
$948.3K
May 26
Active
6

English Premier League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 82%
Manchester City 18%
Chelsea 1%
Liverpool 1%
Aston Villa 1%
Manchester United 1%
Fulham 1%
Everton 1%
Sunderland 1%
Brentford 1%
Bournemouth 1%
Volume
$22.2M
Open Int.
$948.3K
Ends
May 26
7
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
Polymarket 💰 Finance
$105 89%
$22.0M
$7.5M
Mar 30
Active
7

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?

Polymarket
💰 Finance Active
$105 89%
$100 88%
$110 60%
$120 40%
$130 35%
$80 28%
$140 22%
$75 17%
$150 11%
$70 10%
$180 6%
$65 5%
$200 4%
$60 3%
$40 1%
$45 1%
$50 1%
$55 1%
Volume
$22.0M
Open Int.
$7.5M
Ends
Mar 30
8
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Spain 15%
$20.1M
$1.2M
Jul 19
Active
8

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Spain 15%
England 13%
Argentina 12%
France 11%
Brazil 9%
Portugal 7%
Germany 5%
Norway 4%
Netherlands 3%
Japan 2%
Colombia 2%
Belgium 2%
Morocco 2%
Italy 2%
South Alabama 2%
Uzbekistan 1%
South Africa 1%
Paraguay 1%
Saudi Arabia 1%
Iran 1%
Qatar 1%
South Korea 1%
Canada 1%
New Zealand 1%
Austria 1%
Australia 1%
Senegal 1%
Switzerland 1%
Ivory Coast 1%
Jordan 1%
Egypt 1%
Ghana 1%
Scotland 1%
Haiti 1%
Algeria 1%
Curaçao 1%
Croatia 1%
Tunisia 1%
Cape Verde 1%
Ecuador 1%
Mexico 1%
Uruguay 1%
Volume
$20.1M
Open Int.
$1.2M
Ends
Jul 19
9
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
Polymarket 💰 Finance
$75,000 68%
$17.9M
$8.6M
Mar 31
Active
9

What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Polymarket
💰 Finance Active
$75,000 68%
$65,000 43%
$80,000 27%
$60,000 20%
$55,000 9%
$85,000 9%
$50,000 4%
$90,000 3%
$45,000 2%
$150,000 1%
$95,000 1%
$100,000 1%
$110,000 1%
$20,000 1%
$40,000 1%
$35,000 1%
$105,000 1%
$25,000 1%
$30,000 1%
Volume
$17.9M
Open Int.
$8.6M
Ends
Mar 31
10
UEFA Champions League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 26%
$17.7M
$3.3M
May 30
Active
10

UEFA Champions League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 26%
Bayern Munich 22%
Barcelona 14%
PSG 12%
Real Madrid 10%
Liverpool 7%
Atletico Madrid 5%
Bodo Glimt 3%
Man City 2%
Tottenham 1%
Atalanta 1%
Galatasaray 1%
Leverkusen 1%
Sporting 1%
Chelsea 1%
Club Brugge 1%
Newcastle 1%
Volume
$17.7M
Open Int.
$3.3M
Ends
May 30
11
UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Charles Oliveira Outcome
$17.2M
—
—
Closed
11

UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Charles Oliveira
Volume $17.2M
12
2026 NBA Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder 35%
$15.4M
$814.9K
Jun 30
Active
12

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Oklahoma City Thunder 35%
San Antonio Spurs 13%
Boston Celtics 12%
Denver Nuggets 9%
Detroit Pistons 5%
Cleveland Cavaliers 5%
New York Knicks 5%
Minnesota Timberwolves 3%
Houston Rockets 3%
Los Angeles Clippers 2%
Los Angeles Lakers 2%
Charlotte Hornets 1%
Dallas Mavericks 1%
Atlanta Hawks 1%
Miami Heat 1%
Portland Trail Blazers 1%
Chicago Bulls 1%
New Orleans Pelicans 1%
Memphis Grizzlies 1%
Toronto Raptors 1%
Milwaukee Bucks 1%
Phoenix Suns 1%
Utah Jazz 1%
Orlando Magic 1%
Philadelphia 76ers 1%
Golden State Warriors 1%
Volume
$15.4M
Open Int.
$814.9K
Ends
Jun 30
13
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
December 31 69%
$13.9M
$9.9M
May 30
Active
13

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
December 31 69%
June 30 59%
May 31 53%
April 30 41%
April 15 30%
March 31 19%
March 15 1%
Volume
$13.9M
Open Int.
$9.9M
Ends
May 30
14
New York at Los Angeles C
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Los Angeles Clippers Outcome
$13.8M
—
—
Closed
14

New York at Los Angeles C

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Los Angeles Clippers
Volume $13.8M
15
Denver at Oklahoma City
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Outcome
$13.2M
—
—
Closed
15

Denver at Oklahoma City

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Oklahoma City
Volume $13.2M
16
Elon Musk # tweets March 6 - March 13, 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
360–379 Outcome
$12.0M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
16

Elon Musk # tweets March 6 - March 13, 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome 360–379
Volume $12.0M
17
Minnesota at Los Angeles L
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Los Angeles Lakers Outcome
$10.8M
—
—
Closed
17

Minnesota at Los Angeles L

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Los Angeles Lakers
Volume $10.8M
18
Charlotte at Phoenix
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Phoenix Outcome
$10.6M
—
—
Closed
18

Charlotte at Phoenix

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Phoenix
Volume $10.6M
19
The Masters - Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Scottie Scheffler 20%
$10.1M
$173.0K
Apr 12
Active
19

The Masters - Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Scottie Scheffler 20%
Rory McIlroy 9%
Jon Rahm 6%
Ludvig Aberg 6%
Bryson Dechambeau 6%
Xander Schauffele 5%
Hideki Matsuyama 3%
Collin Morikawa 3%
Tommy Fleetwood 3%
Akshay Bhatia 3%
Viktor Hovland 2%
Jordan Spieth 2%
Robert MacIntyre 2%
Jason Day 2%
Tyrrell Hatton 2%
Cameron Young 2%
Justin Rose 2%
Justin Thomas 2%
Patrick Reed 2%
Brooks Koepka 2%
Shane Lowry 1%
Matt Fitzpatrick 1%
Adam Scott 1%
Russell Henley 1%
Sepp Straka 1%
Tony Finau 1%
Min Woo Lee 1%
Billy Horschel 1%
Sahith Theegala 1%
Byeong Hun An 1%
Tom Kim 1%
Thomas Detry 1%
Charl Schwartzel 1%
Joaquin Niemann 1%
Denny McCarthy 1%
Zach Johnson 1%
Davis Thompson 1%
Dustin Johnson 1%
Maverick McNealy 1%
Sergio Garcia 1%
Patrick Cantlay 1%
Tiger Woods 1%
Bubba Watson 1%
Max Homa 1%
Fred Couples 1%
Sam Burns 1%
Sungjae Im 1%
Rasmus Hojgaard 1%
Cameron Smith 1%
Brian Harman 1%
Will Zalatoris 1%
Corey Conners 1%
Nicolai Hojgaard 1%
Danny Willett 1%
Aaron Rai 1%
Wyndham Clark 1%
Keegan Bradley 1%
Phil Mickelson 1%
Taylor Pendrith 1%
Volume
$10.1M
Open Int.
$173.0K
Ends
Apr 12
20
Golden State at Utah
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Utah Jazz Outcome
$9.5M
—
—
Closed
20

Golden State at Utah

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Utah Jazz
Volume $9.5M
21
Bitcoin above ___ on March 13?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$58,000 Outcome
$9.1M
$0
Mar 13
Closed
21

Bitcoin above ___ on March 13?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome $58,000
Volume $9.1M
22
Paris Mayoral Election
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Emmanuel Grégoire 69%
$8.9M
$1.4M
Oct 22
Closed
22

Paris Mayoral Election

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome —
Volume $8.9M
23
Los Angeles C at Memphis
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Los Angeles Clippers Outcome
$8.8M
—
—
Closed
23

Los Angeles C at Memphis

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Los Angeles Clippers
Volume $8.8M
24
Texas Tech at BYU
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Brigham Young University Outcome
$8.0M
—
—
Closed
24

Texas Tech at BYU

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Brigham Young University
Volume $8.0M
25
New York at Utah
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
New York Knicks Outcome
$7.9M
—
—
Closed
25

New York at Utah

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome New York Knicks
Volume $7.9M
26
T20 World Cup Final: India vs New Zealand
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
India Outcome
$7.8M
—
—
Closed
26

T20 World Cup Final: India vs New Zealand

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome India
Volume $7.8M
27
Boston at San Antonio
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
San Antonio Spurs Outcome
$7.8M
—
—
Closed
27

Boston at San Antonio

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome San Antonio Spurs
Volume $7.8M
28
New York at Los Angeles L
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Los Angeles Lakers Outcome
$7.7M
—
—
Closed
28

New York at Los Angeles L

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Los Angeles Lakers
Volume $7.7M
29
Charlotte at Portland
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Charlotte Hornets Outcome
$7.7M
—
—
Closed
29

Charlotte at Portland

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Charlotte Hornets
Volume $7.7M
30
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31 4%
$7.6M
$10.2M
Mar 30
Active
30

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31 4%
Volume
$7.6M
Open Int.
$10.2M
Ends
Mar 30
1
US strikes Iran by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
February 28 Outcome
$516.6M
$0
Jun 29
Closed
1

US strikes Iran by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome February 28
Volume $516.6M
2
Fed decision in March?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
No 100%
$273.7M
$38.9M
Mar 17
Closing Soon
2

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Closing Soon
No 100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Volume
$273.7M
Open Int.
$38.9M
Ends
Mar 17
3
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair Outcome
$210.1M
$0
Dec 30
Closed
3

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair
Volume $210.1M
4
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 24%
$150.2M
$11.6M
Nov 6
Active
4

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Kamala Harris 6%
Jon Ossoff 5%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
Mark Kelly 3%
Wes Moore 2%
J.B. Pritzker 2%
James Talarico 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
Ruben Gallego 2%
Ro Khanna 2%
Tim Walz 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Cory Booker 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
George Clooney 1%
Jared Polis 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Rahm Emanuel 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Stephen A. Smith 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Hunter Biden 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
LeBron James 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
MrBeast 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Volume
$150.2M
Open Int.
$11.6M
Ends
Nov 6
5
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Spain 15%
$146.4M
$4.2M
Jul 19
Active
5

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Spain 15%
England 13%
Argentina 12%
France 11%
Brazil 9%
Portugal 7%
Germany 5%
Norway 4%
Netherlands 3%
Japan 2%
Colombia 2%
Belgium 2%
Morocco 2%
Italy 2%
South Alabama 2%
Uzbekistan 1%
South Africa 1%
Paraguay 1%
Saudi Arabia 1%
Iran 1%
Qatar 1%
South Korea 1%
Canada 1%
New Zealand 1%
Austria 1%
Australia 1%
Senegal 1%
Switzerland 1%
Ivory Coast 1%
Jordan 1%
Egypt 1%
Ghana 1%
Scotland 1%
Haiti 1%
Algeria 1%
Curaçao 1%
Croatia 1%
Tunisia 1%
Cape Verde 1%
Ecuador 1%
Mexico 1%
Uruguay 1%
Volume
$146.4M
Open Int.
$4.2M
Ends
Jul 19
6
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Feb 28, 2026 Outcome
$125.3M
$0
Feb 27
Closed
6

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome Feb 28, 2026
Volume $125.3M
7
What price will Bitcoin hit in February?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$60,000 Outcome
$118.1M
$0
Feb 28
Closed
7

What price will Bitcoin hit in February?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome $60,000
Volume $118.1M
8
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
J.D. Vance 39%
$112.7M
$3.7M
Nov 6
Active
8

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
J.D. Vance 39%
Marco Rubio 28%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Donald Trump 2%
Thomas Massie 2%
Tucker Carlson 2%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%
Tom Brady 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
John Thune 1%
Elise Stefanik 1%
Byron Donalds 1%
Mike Pence 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Steve Bannon 1%
Rand Paul 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Katie Britt 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Brian Kemp 1%
Erika Kirk 1%
Ted Cruz 1%
Matt Gaetz 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%
Volume
$112.7M
Open Int.
$3.7M
Ends
Nov 6
9
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
JD Vance 20%
$95.6M
$32.4M
Nov 6
Active
9

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
JD Vance 20%
Gavin Newsom 17%
Marco Rubio 16%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Jon Ossoff 3%
Kamala Harris 3%
Josh Shapiro 3%
Andy Beshear 2%
Donald Trump 2%
Tucker Carlson 2%
Ron DeSantis 2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
LeBron James 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Stephen Smith 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
James Talarico 1%
Thomas Massie 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
JB Pritzker 1%
Volume
$95.6M
Open Int.
$32.4M
Ends
Nov 6
10
English Premier League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 82%
$95.0M
$3.0M
May 26
Active
10

English Premier League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 82%
Manchester City 18%
Chelsea 1%
Liverpool 1%
Aston Villa 1%
Manchester United 1%
Fulham 1%
Everton 1%
Sunderland 1%
Brentford 1%
Bournemouth 1%
Volume
$95.0M
Open Int.
$3.0M
Ends
May 26
11
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
March 31 Outcome
$69.5M
$0
Dec 30
Closed
11

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome March 31
Volume $69.5M
12
La Liga Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Barcelona 82%
$60.6M
$819.3K
May 29
Active
12

La Liga Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Barcelona 82%
Real Madrid 19%
Atletico Madrid 1%
Athletic Bilbao 1%
Villarreal 1%
Betis 1%
Espanyol 1%
Celta Vigo 1%
Real Sociedad 1%
Osasuna 1%
Getafe 1%
Volume
$60.6M
Open Int.
$819.3K
Ends
May 29
13
2026 NBA Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder 35%
$57.4M
$726.0K
Jun 30
Active
13

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Oklahoma City Thunder 35%
San Antonio Spurs 13%
Boston Celtics 12%
Denver Nuggets 9%
Detroit Pistons 5%
Cleveland Cavaliers 5%
New York Knicks 5%
Minnesota Timberwolves 3%
Houston Rockets 3%
Los Angeles Clippers 2%
Los Angeles Lakers 2%
Charlotte Hornets 1%
Dallas Mavericks 1%
Atlanta Hawks 1%
Miami Heat 1%
Portland Trail Blazers 1%
Chicago Bulls 1%
New Orleans Pelicans 1%
Memphis Grizzlies 1%
Toronto Raptors 1%
Milwaukee Bucks 1%
Phoenix Suns 1%
Utah Jazz 1%
Orlando Magic 1%
Philadelphia 76ers 1%
Golden State Warriors 1%
Volume
$57.4M
Open Int.
$726.0K
Ends
Jun 30
14
US next strikes Iran on...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
February 28 Outcome
$56.0M
$0
Feb 27
Closed
14

US next strikes Iran on...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome February 28
Volume $56.0M
15
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Mar 31, 2026 Outcome
$53.3M
$0
Mar 30
Closed
15

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome Mar 31, 2026
Volume $53.3M
16
Elon Musk # tweets February 24 - March 3, 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
200–219 Outcome
$46.5M
$0
Mar 3
Closed
16

Elon Musk # tweets February 24 - March 3, 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome 200–219
Volume $46.5M
17
Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
VVD + CDA + D66 Outcome
$42.6M
$0
Oct 30
Closed
17

Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome VVD + CDA + D66
Volume $42.6M
18
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Polymarket 🎭 Culture
No 96%
$40.8M
$2.0M
Dec 30
Active
18

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Polymarket
🎭 Culture Active
Yes 4%
No 96%
Volume
$40.8M
Open Int.
$2.0M
Ends
Dec 30
19
Which crypto company will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
Axiom Outcome
$39.7M
$0
Mar 1
Closed
19

Which crypto company will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome Axiom
Volume $39.7M
20
UEFA Champions League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 26%
$39.1M
$2.4M
May 30
Active
20

UEFA Champions League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 26%
Bayern Munich 22%
Barcelona 14%
PSG 12%
Real Madrid 10%
Liverpool 7%
Atletico Madrid 5%
Bodo Glimt 3%
Man City 2%
Tottenham 1%
Atalanta 1%
Galatasaray 1%
Leverkusen 1%
Sporting 1%
Chelsea 1%
Club Brugge 1%
Newcastle 1%
Volume
$39.1M
Open Int.
$2.4M
Ends
May 30
21
What price will Ethereum hit in February?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$2,000 Outcome
$34.6M
$0
Feb 28
Closed
21

What price will Ethereum hit in February?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome $2,000
Volume $34.6M
22
The Masters - Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Scottie Scheffler 20%
$34.0M
$169.1K
Apr 12
Active
22

The Masters - Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Scottie Scheffler 20%
Rory McIlroy 9%
Jon Rahm 6%
Ludvig Aberg 6%
Bryson Dechambeau 6%
Xander Schauffele 5%
Hideki Matsuyama 3%
Collin Morikawa 3%
Tommy Fleetwood 3%
Akshay Bhatia 3%
Viktor Hovland 2%
Jordan Spieth 2%
Robert MacIntyre 2%
Jason Day 2%
Tyrrell Hatton 2%
Cameron Young 2%
Justin Rose 2%
Justin Thomas 2%
Patrick Reed 2%
Brooks Koepka 2%
Shane Lowry 1%
Matt Fitzpatrick 1%
Adam Scott 1%
Russell Henley 1%
Sepp Straka 1%
Tony Finau 1%
Min Woo Lee 1%
Billy Horschel 1%
Sahith Theegala 1%
Byeong Hun An 1%
Tom Kim 1%
Thomas Detry 1%
Charl Schwartzel 1%
Joaquin Niemann 1%
Denny McCarthy 1%
Zach Johnson 1%
Davis Thompson 1%
Dustin Johnson 1%
Maverick McNealy 1%
Sergio Garcia 1%
Patrick Cantlay 1%
Tiger Woods 1%
Bubba Watson 1%
Max Homa 1%
Fred Couples 1%
Sam Burns 1%
Sungjae Im 1%
Rasmus Hojgaard 1%
Cameron Smith 1%
Brian Harman 1%
Will Zalatoris 1%
Corey Conners 1%
Nicolai Hojgaard 1%
Danny Willett 1%
Aaron Rai 1%
Wyndham Clark 1%
Keegan Bradley 1%
Phil Mickelson 1%
Taylor Pendrith 1%
Volume
$34.0M
Open Int.
$169.1K
Ends
Apr 12
23
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Delcy Rodríguez 61%
$30.8M
$6.9K
Dec 30
Active
23

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Delcy Rodríguez 61%
Nicolás Maduro 14%
María Corina Machado 14%
Edmundo González 4%
Richard Grenell 1%
Frank Donovan 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Evan Pettus 1%
Dinorah Figuera 1%
No 1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón 1%
Jorge Rodríguez 1%
Vladimir Padrino López 1%
Marco Rubio 1%
Dan Caine 1%
Donald Trump 1%
Volume
$30.8M
Open Int.
$6.9K
Ends
Dec 30
24
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
Polymarket 💰 Finance
$75,000 68%
$30.2M
$7.8M
Mar 31
Active
24

What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Polymarket
💰 Finance Active
$75,000 68%
$65,000 43%
$80,000 27%
$60,000 20%
$55,000 9%
$85,000 9%
$50,000 4%
$90,000 3%
$45,000 2%
$150,000 1%
$95,000 1%
$100,000 1%
$110,000 1%
$20,000 1%
$40,000 1%
$35,000 1%
$105,000 1%
$25,000 1%
$30,000 1%
Volume
$30.2M
Open Int.
$7.8M
Ends
Mar 31
25
Elon Musk # tweets February 27 - March 6, 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
200–219 Outcome
$29.2M
$0
Mar 6
Closed
25

Elon Musk # tweets February 27 - March 6, 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome 200–219
Volume $29.2M
26
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31 4%
$27.4M
$10.2M
Mar 30
Active
26

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31 4%
Volume
$27.4M
Open Int.
$10.2M
Ends
Mar 30
27
Denver at Oklahoma City
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder Outcome
$25.7M
—
—
Closed
27

Denver at Oklahoma City

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Oklahoma City Thunder
Volume $25.7M
28
Elon Musk # tweets February 10 - February 17, 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
240–259 Outcome
$24.0M
$0
Feb 17
Closed
28

Elon Musk # tweets February 10 - February 17, 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome 240–259
Volume $24.0M
29
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
Polymarket 💰 Finance
$105 89%
$23.8M
$6.7M
Mar 30
Active
29

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?

Polymarket
💰 Finance Active
$105 89%
$100 88%
$110 60%
$120 40%
$130 35%
$80 28%
$140 22%
$75 17%
$150 11%
$70 10%
$180 6%
$65 5%
$200 4%
$60 3%
$40 1%
$45 1%
$50 1%
$55 1%
Volume
$23.8M
Open Int.
$6.7M
Ends
Mar 30
30
Which company has the best AI model end of February?
Polymarket 🔬 Tech
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026 Outcome
$22.1M
$0
Feb 27
Closed
30

Which company has the best AI model end of February?

Polymarket
🔬 Tech Closed
Outcome Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026
Volume $22.1M

Category Breakdown

Compare volume and activity across platforms by category

K

Kalshi Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics5,988$1.3M—
Sports267,288$147.4M—
Crypto3,114$18.2M—
Economics3,077$1.0M—
Financials705$313.2K—
Tech & Science382$89.1K—
Culture15,194$1.1M—
Climate840$644.5K—
Misc8,241$23.2K—
World30,462$13.4K—
P

Polymarket Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics5,095$44.0M-27.9%
Sports17,872$94.5M-18.5%
Crypto1,921$28.9M-11.4%
Economics914$19.1M-38.7%
Finance1,672$8.2M-10.3%
Tech643$11.5M+15.4%
Culture1,132$7.3M-0.3%
Weather990$3.6M-6.5%
Misc10,851$62.2M+37.8%
Mentions55$87.9K+462.4%
Last updated: March 14, 2026 at 6:39 AM PDT

Data sourced from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US APIs

Latest news making headlines

  • March 9: Cboe unveiled a new “payout zone” framework for prediction markets, adding a third outcome that allows partial payouts alongside the traditional yes-or-no contract structure.
  • March 9: Underdog acquired Aristotle Exchange’s CFTC-approved trading and clearing entities, giving the fantasy sports operator the regulatory infrastructure to list and clear its own U.S. prediction markets rather than relying on partner exchanges.
  • March 6: Smarkets moves toward launching a U.S. prediction market exchange after filing with the CFTC for Designated Contract Mar ket status, a step that would allow the U.K. betting exchange to list federally regulated event contracts nationwide.
  • March 5: New U.S. guidance on tokenized securities could reshape prediction market infrastructure, potentially enabling blockchain-based collateral, margin trading, and deeper integration with traditional financial markets.
  • March 4: Kevin Warsh’s official nomination as Federal Reserve chair resolves one of the largest political prediction markets to date, with roughly $807 million traded across Kalshi and Polymarket before the confirmation filing reached the Senate.
  • March 4: Trump accuses major banks of blocking the CLARITY Act, arguing financial institutions are resisting stablecoin yield provisions that could compete with traditional savings products.
  • March 3: CFTC Chair Michael Selig signaled a major regulatory push for prediction markets, announcing plans for formal rulemaking and clearer self-certification standards for event contracts.
  • March 3: Kalshi inked a deal with the AP that will allow the exchange to use official AP election data in its markets. Negative public reactions reflect the industry’s current public trust issues.

What are prediction markets? 

Prediction markets are a venue for trading contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. Sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow participants to buy and sell shares in contracts tied to various markets, including politics, economics, pop culture events, and weather forecasts. 

Contracts are the financial instruments used to facilitate trade in prediction markets. At most sites, traders can buy “Yes” or “No” shares on the outcome, with prices ranging from 1 cent to $1. The price serves as an indicator of the perceived likelihood of an event happening. As an example, consider the following market for an economic indicator: 

Example of how a prediction market works

Using the contracts’ pricing as a guide, traders view it as less likely that the funds rate will not decrease when this contract closes. If their speculation proves to be correct, they would earn $1 per contract. Meanwhile, those who hold “Yes” shares would see the value of their holdings go to zero. 

As prediction markets remain open, the price of contracts will fluctuate as traders buy and sell shares in response to new developments. Naturally, there are no guarantees that the market pricing will translate into exactly what will happen.

However, it is a “wisdom of the crowds” indicator that points to an outcome’s overall probability and likelihood.         

How prediction markets work

Prediction market apps function similarly to other financial markets. Traders buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a future event. For comparison, stock market traders buy and sell shares of companies, while popular markets on a commodities exchange include the price of oil or gold. 

In all of the above, traders are speculating on a result in hopes of being correct and ultimately earning a profit. For prediction markets, there are three main components to know:

  • Contracts: These are the financial instruments that are traded and tied to the outcome of future events.  
  • Participants: Those who are trading in the markets and providing liquidity as they buy and sell based on their predictions. 
  • Mechanisms: The platforms that make the markets available, calculate prices, and facilitate transactions. 

Most prediction platforms feature binary options markets, which translates into participants choosing “Yes” or “No” on the available contracts that they are interested in speculating on. The apps make money by charging a fee that varies based on the price of the market. Using the Crypto.com app and a $100 trade as an example, the fee is capped at a maximum of $1.74.       

As you view the available contracts on prediction market platforms, you’ll notice that the total value of “Yes” and “No” options does not equal exactly $1. For example: 

  • Winner of the March Madness tournament semifinal
  • Duke: $0.72
  • Houston: $0.29

The total of the two prices works out to $1.01. This is due to the spread, which is the difference in demand. There is high demand for a market such as this one with a tight spread. If the spread is more prominent, such as $0.05, there’s lower demand and likely less volume and liquidity in the market for that contract. 

Kalshi and Polymarket provide diverse market options for traders to choose from, such as: 

The pricing of contracts can be viewed as the market’s collective “best guess” on the likelihood of an event outcome.

Most popular markets

You can trade on a wide range of real-world events on prediction market platforms. Contracts are available on outcomes in a variety of markets, including: 

  • Sports: Game results, championships, build combo trades
  • Politics: Elections, candidate nominations, legislative outcomes
  • Economics: Central bank rates, inflation, indicators
  • Crypto: Cryptocurrency prices, market events
  • Culture: Award shows, celebrity news, viral trends
  • Climate: Temperature records, storm predictions
  • Companies & Financials: Corporate achievements, stock market trends, index prices
  • Tech & Science: Tech adoption milestones, scientific breakthroughs
  • Health & World: Health and wellness issues, global news, and developments  
  • Mentions: Predictions on words and phrases used by public figures

In terms of overall coverage, Kalshi and Polymarket provide the broadest range of options. Crypto.com is currently limited to sports, PredictIt focuses on politics, while other niche platforms have yet to capture a good deal of mainstream attention. Some platforms allow users to propose new markets, while others curate their offerings centrally. 

In terms of overall usage, Polymarket leads in global web traffic, while Kalshi is tops among US-regulated options. Beyond the trading aspect, prediction markets are often cited for their forecast accuracy. The platforms essentially aggregate the opinions of traders, offering a “wisdom of the crowds’ look at the probability of an event or outcome happening. 

How does pricing work on contracts?

Prediction market contracts are binary options that pay out a fixed amount. It’s typically set at $1 if the event occurs, and $0 if it does not. Before the contract settles, prices will fluctuate between those ranges as traders enter and exit positions. 

When viewing a contract offering on a prediction market platform, the pricing reflects the market’s collective estimate of the probability that the event will happen. Consider the following example:

  • Contract: “Will the Fed raise interest rates in May?” 
  • Pricing: $0.70 for “Yes” and $0.32 for “No.”
  • Implication: The market implies a 70% chance of a rate hike and a 32% chance it won’t happen.

As you’ll notice, the pricing doesn’t exactly equal $1, while the implied probability is greater than 100%. Small differences such as these are common and often reflect the spread between bid and ask pricing or trading fees. Markets with higher liquidity tend to have more stable prices and tighter spreads, while wider price swings can happen in less active contracts. 

While contracts remain open, prices will continue to move as traders react to new information and shifting sentiment, providing a real-time snapshot of the overall market sentiment. At settlement, the resolution for a correct contract call is $1, while the other side will drop to $0.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket fee comparison

The trading fees and costs on prediction markets can impact your overall returns. The table below has a breakdown of the main fees you’ll encounter on Kalshi and Polymarket. 

Fee TypeKalshiPolymarket
Trading Fee$0.07–$1.74 per 100 contracts (varies by contract price; see example)No trading fee
Profit/SettlementNoneNone
Deposit FeeACH free; Debit card 2%None (USDC only)
Withdrawal FeeACH free; Debit card $21.5% on USDC withdrawals

Kalshi’s trading fee is variable and depends on the contract price. For 100 contracts, it can be as low as $0.07 and up to $1.74. There are no settlement fees to worry about. Meanwhile, Polymarket does not charge any trading or settlement fees. 

To illustrate the difference, assume that you’re buying 100 contracts at $0.55 on either platform. At Kalshi, this price point triggers the maximum fee for 100 contracts of $1.74, while Polymarket charges $0. You’d be in for a total of $56.74 at the former, and $55 at the latter.  

If you make the right call, the contract settles at $1 in both spots. At Kalshi, you’ll get back $100, less your fee of $1.74, for a total of $98.26. Polymarket will return an even $100 since there are no fees attached. 

Beyond trading and settlement, be sure to consider the deposit and withdrawal fees that are outlined above. Traders should also be aware of potential “hidden costs” like bid-ask spreads, and the potential challenges of exiting positions in less liquid markets.

Profit potential for betting on predictions

Prediction markets offer opportunities for traders to profit by buying and selling contracts. In its simplest form, the goal is to make the correct calls so your contracts settle at full value. Traders can also aim to “buy low and sell high.”

Strategies for doing just that include looking for mispriced outcomes and acting before the rest of the market catches on. While the potential for returns is real, profits aren’t guaranteed. Market efficiency, liquidity, and timing all play a big role in shaping your results. 

How much can you make by buying a low-priced contract?

Buying low-priced contracts can be enticing due to the potential for big returns. Naturally, there’s plenty of risk here. The contract is priced low for a reason, namely that the chances of that outcome happening aren’t great. 

Let’s consider the following fictitious example for an NBA Playoff game in which there’s a clear favorite to win, at least as far as the market is concerned. 

  • Underdog contract price: $0.10 (10% chance)
  • Quantity: You buy 100 contracts for a total of $10. 
  • Kalshi trading fee: $0.63 (for 100 contracts at this price point)
  • Total upfront cost: $10 + $0.63 = $10.63
  • Outcome: Underdog wins; contracts settle at $1 each
  • Payout: 100 × $1 = $100
  • Net profit: $100 – $10.63 = $89.37

In this case, a small investment yields a large return if the prediction is correct. Seeking out low-priced contracts with realistic profit potential can be part of a well-rounded trading approach, but remember to account for the increased risks of trading less-likely outcomes.  

What happens if you sell your contract before the event?

Prediction markets aren’t just about holding contracts to settlement. You can also sell your position before the event concludes if the odds move in your favor. This is especially common in political markets, where news cycles and polling shifts can cause prices to swing rapidly.

Consider the following as an example: “Will Candidate X win the election?”

  • Polymarket contract price: $0.45 (45% chance)..
  • Quantity: You buy 50 contracts for a total of $22.50.
  • New developments and polling substantially boosts Candidate X’s chances. 
  • The contract price rises to $0.70.
  • You decide to sell all 50 contracts at $0.70 each for a total of $35
  • Polymarket trading fee: $0 (no trading fee; only a withdrawal fee applies if you cash out)
  • Net profit: $35 – $22.50 = $12.50
  • If you withdraw your USDC, a 1.5% withdrawal fee applies: $35 × 0.015 = $0.53

By selling before the event, you lock in your gains and avoid the uncertainty of the final outcome. This approach can be especially useful when you think the market has overreacted or you want to cash out and take your profit after a favorable news development. 

Can you profit by betting ‘No’ on an event?

Prediction markets also allow you to profit by betting against an outcome happening. This is where you would buy the “No” side of the equation when you anticipate that the contract will ultimately resolve to that end result. 

Consider the following example: “Will U.S. inflation exceed 4% this quarter?”

  • Kalshi “No” contract price: $0.60 (60% chance).
  • Quantity: You buy 75 contracts for a total of $45. 
  • Kalshi trading fee: $1.50 (at $0.02 per contract for this price point)
  • Total upfront cost: $45 + $1.50 = $46.50
  • If inflation comes in below 4%, each contract settles at $1
  • Payout: 75 × $1 = $75
  • Net profit: $75 – $46.50 = $28.50

Taking the “No” side can be a valuable strategy when you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of an event. Regardless of which outcome you choose, stick to your comfort level for both contract pricing and the total amount of your trades.   

Are prediction markets the same as gambling? 

Prediction markets are not, by definition, the same as gambling. The former is considered a tool for forecasting outcomes based on probabilities. Casino, sports, and lottery are generally viewed as games of chance. That said, there are similarities between the two, most notably that the goal is to turn a profit.   

From the perspective of a prediction platform, the contracts are on equal footing to a commodities exchange. Using the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as an example, futures and options are traded on stock indexes, precious metals, energy commodities, and more. Traders take positions on the various instruments based on their expectations of what will happen.  

In a prediction market, traders are doing the same thing, albeit in a broader variety of options, such as political, cultural, and economic events. The gambling label has been attached to these platforms as they have risen in popularity, even more so since the introduction of contracts on various sporting events, such as the winner of March Madness or the next Super Bowl winner.  

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi, PredictIt, and ForecastEx are currently available across the US. However, questions on their overall legality continue to linger. A case between Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission remains unresolved. Kalshi won the latest round, but litigation is ongoing. 

The platform offered contracts for the 2024 US elections, and has since expanded into sports futures. Meanwhile, states like Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio have presented the company with cease-and-desist letters, essentially arguing that they’re offering unregulated sports betting.     

If interest in prediction markets is a guide, then the future looks incredibly bright. Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted extensive volume for tentpole events that it has offered contracts for, including the 2024 US elections, the Super Bowl, and March Madness.

Understanding the math of prediction market contracts

Prediction market contract pricing is generally straightforward. You can view an available market and quickly determine the implied probability of an event happening, at least as far as the overall market sentiment is concerned. 

That said, the actual trading of contracts takes a little more doing on the calculation front. You can use the below formulas and examples as a cheat sheet to help gain even more of a comfort level with prediction market trading. 

How to calculate the number of contracts you can buy

Formula: Number of Contracts = (Available Capital) ÷ (Contract Price + Fees)

Example:

  • You want to trade $50. 
  • Each contract you’re interested in costs $0.25.
  • Kalshi fee: $0.02 per contract at this price point.
  • Calculation: $50 ÷ ($0.25 + $0.02) ≈ 192 contracts

Estimating potential profit and loss

Formula: Profit = (Sell Price – Buy Price) × Number of Contracts – Fees

Example:

  • You buy 100 contracts at $0.30 and sell at $0.60.
  • Profit = ($0.60 – $0.30) × 100 = $30
  • Kalshi fee: $1.68 (for 100 contracts at $0.60)
  • Net profit = $30 – $1.68 = $28.32

Finding your break-even price

Formula: Break-even Price = (Buy Price + Total Fees) ÷ Number of Contracts

Example:

  • You buy 50 contracts at $0.40, for a total of $20. 
  • Total fees if you sold at the same price: $1 ($0.02 per contract). 
  • Break-even = ($20 + $1) ÷ 50 = $0.42 per contract
  • You need to sell above $0.42 to make a profit.

By taking the time to understand these quick calculations, you could spot appealing opportunities that much quicker. As an added benefit, you’ll be better equipped to manage risk and make more informed trades. 

Risks to consider when trading in prediction markets

Trading in prediction markets can be entertaining and potentially profitable, but it’s not devoid of risk. Understanding the potential pitfalls can help you mitigate unnecessary mistakes and ultimately make more informed decisions. Key risks to consider include: 

  • Unexpected outcomes: There’s always the potential for a complete loss of your stake, even when the odds seem overwhelmingly in your favor.
  • Low liquidity: Certain markets attract a limited amount of volume, which can make it difficult to buy or sell contracts at fair prices.
  • Platform issues: While top platforms tend to operate without lengthy interruptions, there are simply no guarantees when it comes to security or technical glitches. 
  • Regulatory environment: Prediction markets are soaring in popularity and readily accessible, but are also subject to developments from ongoing legal challenges. 
  • Distorted prices: Biases, groupthink, manipulation, and misinformation could all impact contract pricing in both high- and low-volume markets.   

If you trade in prediction markets, there is risk. However, you can take steps to help manage it better. At the top of the list, you should only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed with trading, no matter what the odds may suggest. 

Next, stay informed about what’s happening. Knowing what’s going on with the regulatory front can help you make better decisions on where to park your funds. Lastly, stick to what you know and don’t blindly chase volume. After all, the herd isn’t always correct.  

About The Author
Author Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-check. Before DeFi Rate, she led content and growth strategy at Catena Media, where she helped shape content and revenue strategy for regulated and financial markets. She has 20 years of experience in research and marketing strategy
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