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2028 Republican Nominee Odds for PresidentJ.D. Vance is the favorite at 46%

Kalshi has J.D. Vance at 44% and Polymarket at 49%. Over the past week on Kalshi, J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio lost the most, 1 point each.

Favorite on average
46%J.D. Vance

About even Down 1 pt this week (Kalshi)

Average of Kalshi (44%) and Polymarket (49%).

Kalshi44¢Polymarket49.1¢

Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $227 if correct, before fees.

Lowest comparable ask: KalshiCompare all prices
Runner-up on average
16%Marco Rubio

About 1 in 6 Down 1 pt this week (Kalshi)

Average of Kalshi (17%) and Polymarket (15%).

Kalshi17¢Polymarket15.3¢

Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $653 if correct, before fees.

Lowest comparable ask: PolymarketCompare all prices
By Data observed
Kalshi and Polymarket

2028 Republican presidential nominee

24h volume
$33Kcombined

Polymarket: $24K (73%) · Kalshi: $9K (27%)

Trading closes
Nov 7, 2028

Kalshi: Nov 7, 2028 · Polymarket: Nov 7, 2028

Prices to buy each outcome, or the last trade where no one is selling. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Polymarket.

2028 Republican presidential nominee: Kalshi and Polymarket odds, observed between Oct 6, 9:58 PM ET and Oct 7, 1:50 AM ET
OutcomeAverageKalshiPolymarketSources
J.D. Vance46%Kalshi44¢Polymarket49.1¢
Marco Rubio16%Kalshi17¢Polymarket15.3¢
Ron DeSantis3.5%Kalshi4.2¢Polymarket2.8¢
Tucker Carlson3.1%Kalshi3.1¢Polymarket3.1¢
Ted Cruz2.3%Kalshi2.2¢Polymarket2.5¢
Donald J. Trump2.1%Kalshi2.5¢Polymarket2¢
Donald J. Trump Jr.2.1%Kalshi2.8¢Polymarket1.7¢
Ivanka Trump1.1%Kalshi1.3¢Polymarket1¢
Chris Christie1%Kalshi1¢PolymarketNot listed
Candace Owens1%Kalshi1¢Polymarket0.20¢

Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask, or its last trade. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 6, 9:58 PM ET and Oct 7, 1:50 AM ET.

The leading six, venue by venueobserved between Oct 7, 1:11 AM and 1:49 AM ET
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%KalshiPolymarketOur figureJ.D. Vance46%Marco Rubio16%Ron DeSantis3.5%Carlson3.1%Ted Cruz2.3%Trump2.1%

The widest gap is on J.D. Vance: Kalshi 44% and Polymarket 49%. Our figure is their average.

Price history · Kalshi daily closeAug 6 – Oct 5

Over the past week on Kalshi, J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio lost the most, 1 point each.

01020304050Sep44%18%4%3%2%
J.D. VanceMarco RubioRon DeSantisTucker CarlsonTed Cruz

Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Aug 6 to Oct 5 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.

Market moves

Biggest moves, last 7 days

J.D. Vance2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi daily close
45% → 44%
−1 pt
Kalshi44¢Polymarket49.1¢

Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 7, 1:46 AM ET).

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Source: Gemini / Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket / Polymarket US / ProphetX / Rothera / Underdog Exchange via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 7, 12:30 AM ET.