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2028 Republican Nominee Odds for PresidentJ.D. Vance is the favorite at 47%

Kalshi has J.D. Vance at 45% and Polymarket at 50%. Over the past week on Kalshi, Marco Rubio lost 2 points, to 18%.

Favorite on average
47%J.D. Vance

About evenUnchanged this week (Kalshi)

Average of Kalshi (45%) and Polymarket (50%).

Kalshi45¢Polymarket50.3¢

Prices to buy. Kalshi's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 9:48 AM ET) and may have moved.

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Runner-up on average
16%Marco Rubio

About 1 in 6 Down 2 pts this week (Kalshi)

Average of Kalshi (18%) and Polymarket (15%).

Kalshi18¢Polymarket15.4¢

Prices to buy. Kalshi's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 9:40 AM ET) and may have moved.

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By Data observed
Kalshi and Polymarket

2028 Republican presidential nominee

24h volume
$40Kcombined

Polymarket: $24K (59%) · Kalshi: $16K (41%)

Trading closes
Nov 7, 2028

Kalshi: Nov 7, 2028 · Polymarket: Nov 7, 2028

Prices to buy each outcome, or the last trade where no one is selling. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Polymarket.

2028 Republican presidential nominee: Kalshi and Polymarket odds, observed between Oct 4, 5:58 AM and 9:53 AM ET
OutcomeAverageKalshiPolymarketSources
J.D. Vance47%Kalshi45¢Polymarket50.3¢
Marco Rubio16%Kalshi18¢Polymarket15.4¢
Ron DeSantis3.4%Kalshi4.3¢Polymarket2.7¢
Tucker Carlson3%Kalshi2.9¢Polymarket3.2¢
Ted Cruz2.3%Kalshi2.1¢Polymarket2.7¢
Donald J. Trump Jr.2.2%Kalshi2.9¢Polymarket1.6¢
Donald J. Trump2.1%Kalshi2.4¢Polymarket2¢Lowest ask
Ivanka Trump1%Kalshi1.3¢Polymarket0.90¢
Chris Christie1%Kalshi1¢PolymarketNot listed
Jeff Bezos1%Kalshi1¢PolymarketNot listed

Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 5:58 AM and 9:53 AM ET.

The leading six, venue by venueobserved between Oct 4, 9:19 AM and 9:53 AM ET
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%KalshiPolymarketOur figureJ.D. Vance47%Marco Rubio16%Ron DeSantis3.4%Carlson2.9%Ted Cruz2.3%Trump Jr.2.2%

The widest gap is on J.D. Vance: Kalshi 45% and Polymarket 50%. Our figure is their average.

Price history · Kalshi daily closeAug 3 – Oct 3

Over the past week on Kalshi, Marco Rubio lost 2 points, to 18%.

01020304050SepOct45%18%4%3%2%
J.D. VanceMarco RubioRon DeSantisTucker CarlsonTed Cruz

Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Aug 3 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.

Market moves

Biggest moves, last 7 days

Marco Rubio2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi daily close
20% → 18%
−2 pts
Kalshi18¢Polymarket15.4¢

Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 4, 9:48 AM ET).

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Source: Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket / Polymarket US / ProphetX / Rothera / Underdog Exchange via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 4, 8:30 AM ET.