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You can trade California's 2026 elections on prediction markets including Kalshi and Polymarket US. Markets cover the governor's race, congressional elections, statewide propositions and more. Compare California election markets, prediction sites and signup bonuses before the November 3 election.
Per DeFi Rate volume tracker, Kalshi generated $98.2 billion in October trading volume, while Polymarket US reached $14.8 billion. Underdog and Novig more than doubled their monthly volume as combo trading continued to expand across exchanges.
Kalshi and Polymarket price the likelihood of an outcome, not a candidate’s vote share or an official result. With Election Day approaching, that distinction matters more than ever.
Sequoia and Wellington led the Series G, nearly doubling Kalshi’s valuation since May. The exchange plans stock perpetuals, compute markets and a larger institutional business.
With five days until the midterms, Kalshi traders favor Graham in a tied South Carolina race and give Moody a stronger edge in Florida, where she leads by six points.
The change follows restrictions on Kalshi, Robinhood and Coinbase, while courts continue to weigh whether federal commodities regulation displaces state gambling laws.
Texas has drawn $47 million in trading as Kalshi favors Democratic candidates across several Republican-held seats. Close polls still leave plenty of room for a different outcome.
Traders can pair Senate and governor outcomes or bet on congressional control together. The expansion brings a major part of Kalshi’s business into the midterms while states challenge its sports contracts.
The Kalshi promo code RATE unlocks a $55 trading bonus for new users who deposit and trade $25 on the rate hike decision. Claim the offer and compare hike, hold and December prices before the Fed announces on Wednesday.
Federal regulators want to stop Utah from applying its gambling laws to prediction markets, six days after the state sued Kalshi and two trading firms. The new case does not overturn Utah’s earlier win.
The league is giving both exchanges official data and marketing rights while imposing trading safeguards. A separate CFTC agreement adds an integrity-monitoring framework.
The exchange is seeking protection before an anticipated state crackdown. The lawsuit creates another possible appellate route in the nationwide dispute over who regulates sports event contracts.
Gaming regulators want records on sports contracts, under-21 users and advertising as they weigh civil penalties. The petition adds another case to New York’s existing enforcement fight.
Election trading volume reached nearly $104 million across four prediction markets in the first 20 days of October, with Texas Senate and control of the House accounting for much of the increase.
Traders favor the Democrat over Ken Paxton even as recent polls show a close race, putting Texas alongside Ohio as a potential Republican Senate loss.
A personal attack featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother has divided Republicans as traders grow more confident in the Democrat. They also favor Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s Senate race.
Two companies are challenging Ohio’s crackdown, regulators say, while Gov. Mike DeWine promises enforcement after an Oct. 16 deadline. Polymarket’s case adds a constitutional challenge to the industry’s federal regulation argument.
The state wants a court-ordered block on sports, election and other contracts, plus financial recovery. Its new lawsuit follows an August ruling rejecting Kalshi’s claim that federal regulation shields it from Utah’s gambling ban.
Two exchanges are challenging Missouri’s demand that they stop offering sports contracts or obtain gambling licenses, opening another front in a legal fight already headed toward possible Supreme Court review.
My Ballot matches voters with their races and adds market odds where available, expanding an election hub Kalshi said attracts mostly non-traders.