Dolphins vs. Vikings Week 4 Odds & PredictionsThe Vikings are an 83% favorite at home against the Dolphins
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. Prediction markets give the Vikings an 83% chance to win (−475) and the Dolphins 17% (+475). Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket agree within a point. Kalshi's lines make it Vikings −9.5, with 38.5 total points. The Vikings are down 1 point this week on Kalshi. $212K has traded on the game in the last 24 hours.
About 5 in 6 (−475)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $120 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 6 (+475)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $579 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
Dolphins vs. Vikings moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota VikingsHome · −475 | 83% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $120 | Kalshi83¢ | Polymarket US83¢ | Polymarket83¢ | |
| Miami DolphinsAway · +475 | 17% $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $579 | Kalshi18¢ | Polymarket US17.3¢Lowest ask | Polymarket18¢ |
Best prices to buy: Minnesota at 83¢ on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket; Miami at 17.3¢ on Polymarket US. Buying both costs $1.002 for a $1 payout, so there's no arbitrage. Traded in the past 24 hours: $139K on Kalshi, $61K on Polymarket and $12K on Polymarket US.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 10:51 AM and 10:54 AM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Minnesota lost 1 point, to 83%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 22 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Dolphins vs. Vikings spread and over/under
Kalshi prices a ladder of margins and totals. The highlighted row is closest to a coin flip.
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 7+ pts | 63% | −167 |
| 8+ pts | 55% | −120 |
| 10+ pts | 51% | −102 |
| 11+ pts | 47% | +115 |
| 14+ pts | 40% | +153 |
All 26 spread lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins 2+ pts | 16% | +545 |
| Dolphins 3+ pts | 16% | +545 |
| Dolphins 4+ pts | 12% | +770 |
| Dolphins 5+ pts | 9.5% | +953 |
| Dolphins 6+ pts | 9.5% | +953 |
| Dolphins 7+ pts | 7.5% | +1233 |
| Dolphins 8+ pts | 6.5% | +1438 |
| Dolphins 10+ pts | 5.5% | +1718 |
| Dolphins 11+ pts | 5.5% | +1718 |
| Vikings 2+ pts | 80% | −388 |
| Vikings 3+ pts | 79% | −365 |
| Vikings 4+ pts | 74% | −277 |
| Vikings 5+ pts | 69% | −217 |
| Vikings 6+ pts | 67% | −199 |
| Vikings 7+ pts | 63% | −167 |
| Vikings 8+ pts | 55% | −120 |
| Vikings 10+ pts | 51% | −102 |
| Vikings 11+ pts | 47% | +115 |
| Vikings 14+ pts | 40% | +153 |
| Vikings 15+ pts | 37% | +174 |
| Vikings 17+ pts | 31% | +228 |
| Vikings 18+ pts | 28% | +264 |
| Vikings 21+ pts | 22% | +365 |
| Vikings 24+ pts | 16% | +545 |
| Vikings 28+ pts | 9.5% | +953 |
| Vikings 31+ pts | 5.5% | +1718 |
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 32.5 | 71% | −239 |
| 35.5 | 62% | −160 |
| 38.5 | 52% | −106 |
| 39.5 | 48% | +111 |
| 40.5 | 44% | +130 |
All 19 total lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 95% | −1718 |
| 23.5 | 91% | −953 |
| 26.5 | 86% | −590 |
| 29.5 | 78% | −344 |
| 32.5 | 71% | −239 |
| 35.5 | 62% | −160 |
| 38.5 | 52% | −106 |
| 39.5 | 48% | +111 |
| 40.5 | 44% | +130 |
| 41.5 | 40% | +153 |
| 42.5 | 39% | +160 |
| 43.5 | 35% | +190 |
| 44.5 | 31% | +228 |
| 47.5 | 24% | +326 |
| 50.5 | 18% | +471 |
| 53.5 | 14% | +641 |
| 56.5 | 8.5% | +1076 |
| 59.5 | 6.5% | +1438 |
| 62.5 | 4.5% | +2122 |
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 10:35 AM and 10:54 AM ET.
Dolphins vs. Vikings stats
These figures cover the 2026 regular season through Week 2. The table compares each team’s record and per-game averages side by side.
| Team stat | Dolphins | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Points per game | 13 | 24 |
| Total yards per game | 271.5 | 242.5 |
| Passing yards per game | 208.5 | 147 |
| Rushing yards per game | 88 | 113 |
| First downs per game | 13 | 15 |
| Third-down conversion | 36.0% | 39.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Turnover differential | 0 | +3 |
| Sacks per game | — | 4 |
| Time of possession | 27:40 | 30:08 |
Stat leaders: Dolphins — passing, Malik Willis (29/50, 417 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT); rushing, De’Von Achane (31 CAR, 110 YDS); receiving, Caleb Douglas (7 REC, 113 YDS); Vikings — passing, Carson Wentz (23/39, 276 YDS, 3 TD); rushing, Aaron Jones Sr. (35 CAR, 145 YDS, 1 TD); receiving, Justin Jefferson (11 REC, 147 YDS, 2 TD).
Source: ESPN team statistics. 2026 regular-season averages and leaders through Week 2; the section is refreshed as each week is completed.
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