17%Hike
▼ Down 49 pts this week (Kalshi)
A hold is favored: hold is 83%, a cut about 2%.
Last trades; the price to buy may differ. At the last traded price, $100 would return $606 if correct, before fees.
Fed Rate Decision Odds Traders now expect the Fed to hold in October
Two weeks ago traders already leaned toward a hike. Now a hold on Oct. 28 is the favorite, and December looks likelier still.
74%Yes
Dec. 9 alone: 72%
Traders are surer a hike comes this year than that it comes in October.
Last trades; the price to buy may differ. At the last traded price, $100 would return $137 if correct, before fees.
SourcesMarket estimate: average of Kalshi and Polymarket.
Market moves
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 4, 10:03 AM ET).
The evidence
The path, meeting by meeting
Each meeting is its own market, so these aren’t conditional on each other. Kalshi prices.
Hike odds since MayKalshi daily close
Next six meetingshike · hold · cut
| Meeting | Hike · Hold · Cut | Most likely |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 282026 | Hold | |
| Dec 92026 | Hike | |
| Jan 272027 | Hold | |
| Mar 172027 | Hike | |
| Apr 282027 | Hold | |
| Jun 92027 | Hold |
Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:02 AM and 9:59 AM ET. Some quotes are stale: they weren’t observed recently and may have moved. Each figure’s sources show when.
Disagreements
Where the numbers don’t line up
Kalshi’s decision market says 17.5%. Its rate-level market says 19.5%.
- Compares
- Two Kalshi contracts that settle on the same October outcome, worded differently
- Same settlement?
- Effectively yes
- Tradable?
- Yes, both at the displayed last trade, size not measured
A two-point gap on the same exchange is small but real. It usually closes quickly.
Kalshi and Polymarket differ on a 2026 hike: 75.5% vs. 72.5%
- Compares
- Each venue’s “hike in 2026” contract
- Same settlement?
- Similar, not identical wording
- Tradable?
- Yes
When two venues disagree, check each contract’s wording before reading much into either price.
December is likelier than October, 72% vs. 17%
- Compares
- Two separate meeting markets
- Conditional?
- No. Each meeting is priced on its own
- Tradable?
- Yes
Traders are more confident a hike comes this year than that it comes next month.
What it means for you
What a quarter-point hike would cost
Variable-rate debt calculatorCredit cards, HELOCs, adjustable loans
Extra interest per year
+$63
Assumes your rate moves one-for-one with the Fed’s, which is typical for credit cards and HELOCs. Fixed-rate mortgages follow bond yields, not the Fed. Savings: roughly +$25 a year per $10,000 in a high-yield account.
Trading detail
Compare prices
Each venue’s price for the market you pick, what your order would pay, and the estimated fee.
Fed hikes on Oct. 28, all venues
Pick a market and an amount
| Venue | Price | 24h traded | Est. fee | Payout if correct | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiOctober decision contract | 17.5¢Last trade | $3K | $5.78 | $571before fees | Kalshi17.5¢ |
| PolymarketOctober decision market | 16.5¢Last trade | $31K | n/a | $606before fees | Polymarket16.5¢ |
“Price to buy” is the venue’s current ask; “last trade” is the most recent trade and may not be available now. We don’t yet measure how many contracts are available at a price, so large orders may fill higher. Est. fee uses Kalshi’s published taker-fee formula, per contract in a bundle; other venues’ fees aren’t in our feed. DeFi Rate may earn a commission when you open an account through these links. 18+ (21+ in some states).
Explanation
How Fed decision odds work
How Fed decision markets are priced
Each FOMC meeting becomes a set of yes-or-no contracts: hike, hold or cut. A contract that pays $1 if the Fed hikes, trading at 52¢, means traders put the chance at about 52%. Buy at 52¢ and it pays $1 if the Fed hikes, or nothing if it doesn’t.
These prices come from traders, not the Fed. The direction of the price often says more than any single reading: a move from 28% to 52% in two weeks is a big change in expectations.
How they settle
FOMC markets settle on the Fed’s official statement at federalreserve.gov, usually within hours of the 2:00 p.m. ET release. An emergency move between meetings counts too. A statement that holds rates but signals future moves can shift related markets, such as “hikes in 2026”, even when the meeting market settles cleanly.
Why these markets matter
They turn millions of dollars of positions into one number that updates in real time. CME FedWatch does something similar with fed funds futures; prediction markets add retail and global traders. Federal Reserve research has found Kalshi’s day-before FOMC prices have outperformed fed funds futures at predicting decisions.
Common misconceptions
- The Fed sets mortgage rates. It sets the overnight federal funds rate. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield. They often move together, but they aren’t directly linked.
- The chair decides alone. The FOMC votes. Dissents are recorded, and a split vote can move markets.
- A 52% hike price means the Fed is leaning toward a hike. It means traders are split almost evenly.
Methodology
Where two venues list the same outcome we average them; where only one does we show that venue alone and say so. No volume weighting. History is Kalshi’s daily close. Full methodology →
Full methodology
PricesEach venue’s price as our data provider reports it: the midpoint of its bid and ask where both are quoted, otherwise its last trade. A quote not observed recently is marked stale.
AveragesThe October figures average Kalshi and Polymarket, as does the 2026-hike figure.
Timestamps“Data observed” is when prices were read; “Updated” is when an editor last changed the text.
Stale quotesQuotes our data provider marks stale are shown but never averaged.
Activity, not depth24-hour dollars traded is recent activity, not how much you can buy at a price.
Data and sources
- Source records for every number on this page: contracts, quote types, calculations and history
- DeFi Rate prediction-market methodology: how we price, average and label every figure
- Permanent snapshot, Oct 4, 10:03 AM ET: a frozen copy for citation
- The Fed hikes on Oct. 28: daily history (CSV)
- The Fed holds on Oct. 28: daily history (CSV)
- The Fed hikes on Dec. 9: daily history (CSV)
- Fed meeting odds (Kalshi) (CSV)
- Every figure and contract on this page (CSV)
Questions
Will the Fed raise rates on Oct. 28, 2026?
A hold is favored. Kalshi and Polymarket put a quarter-point hike at about 17% and a hold at about 83% as of Oct 4. A cut is about 2%.
Is this an average of several venues?
Yes. The October figures average Kalshi and Polymarket, and so does the 2026-hike figure. The meeting path is Kalshi’s.
When will we know?
The Fed releases its statement at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Markets settle shortly after.
How often do these odds update?
Prices are checked every 2 minutes. The page shows when the data was observed and, separately, when the text was last edited.
About the authors
Christopher Feery has written professionally since 2014 and has covered the gambling industry full time since New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018.
Cheryle Shepstone is DeFi Rate’s Director of Content and Strategy and oversees its prediction-market research, platform reviews and editorial methodology.
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