Jaguars vs. Bengals Week 4 Odds & PredictionsThe Bengals are a 57% favorite at home against the Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. Prediction markets give the Bengals a 57% chance to win (−130) and the Jaguars 43% (+133). Kalshi and Polymarket agree within a point. Kalshi's lines make it Bengals −2.5, with 51.5 total points. The Bengals are up 2 points this week on Kalshi. $216K has traded on the game in the last 24 hours.
About 3 in 5 (−130)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $175 if correct, before fees.
About 2 in 5 (+133)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $232 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
Jaguars vs. Bengals moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati BengalsHome · −130 | 57% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $175 | Kalshi57¢ | Polymarket USNo ask | Polymarket57¢ | |
| Jacksonville JaguarsAway · +133 | 43% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $232 | Kalshi43¢Lowest ask | Polymarket USNo ask | Polymarket44¢ |
Best prices to buy: Cincinnati at 57¢ on Kalshi and Polymarket; Jacksonville at 43¢ on Kalshi. Buying both costs exactly the $1 payout: no arbitrage. Traded in the past 24 hours: $155K on Kalshi and $61K on Polymarket.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 4, 10:53 AM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Cincinnati gained 2 points, to 57%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 22 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Jaguars vs. Bengals spread and over/under
Kalshi prices a ladder of margins and totals. The highlighted row is closest to a coin flip.
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2+ pts | 55% | −120 |
| 3+ pts | 52% | −106 |
| 4+ pts | 43% | +135 |
| 5+ pts | 40% | +153 |
| 6+ pts | 39% | +160 |
All 25 spread lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Jaguars 2+ pts | 40% | +153 |
| Jaguars 3+ pts | 38% | +167 |
| Jaguars 4+ pts | 31% | +228 |
| Jaguars 5+ pts | 28% | +264 |
| Jaguars 6+ pts | 26% | +292 |
| Jaguars 7+ pts | 23% | +335 |
| Jaguars 8+ pts | 19% | +441 |
| Jaguars 10+ pts | 17% | +506 |
| Jaguars 11+ pts | 14% | +641 |
| Jaguars 14+ pts | 11% | +852 |
| Jaguars 15+ pts | 8.5% | +1076 |
| Bengals 2+ pts | 55% | −120 |
| Bengals 3+ pts | 52% | −106 |
| Bengals 4+ pts | 43% | +135 |
| Bengals 5+ pts | 40% | +153 |
| Bengals 6+ pts | 39% | +160 |
| Bengals 7+ pts | 35% | +190 |
| Bengals 8+ pts | 30% | +239 |
| Bengals 10+ pts | 27% | +277 |
| Bengals 11+ pts | 23% | +344 |
| Bengals 14+ pts | 19% | +441 |
| Bengals 15+ pts | 16% | +525 |
| Bengals 17+ pts | 15% | +590 |
| Bengals 18+ pts | 13% | +700 |
| Bengals 21+ pts | 8.5% | +1076 |
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 49.5 | 58% | −135 |
| 50.5 | 55% | −120 |
| 51.5 | 51% | −102 |
| 52.5 | 48% | +111 |
| 55.5 | 39% | +160 |
All 19 total lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 28.5 | 97% | −2757 |
| 31.5 | 94% | −1438 |
| 34.5 | 91% | −953 |
| 37.5 | 86% | −590 |
| 40.5 | 80% | −388 |
| 43.5 | 74% | −277 |
| 46.5 | 67% | −199 |
| 47.5 | 62% | −160 |
| 48.5 | 60% | −147 |
| 49.5 | 58% | −135 |
| 50.5 | 55% | −120 |
| 51.5 | 51% | −102 |
| 52.5 | 48% | +111 |
| 55.5 | 39% | +160 |
| 58.5 | 31% | +228 |
| 61.5 | 25% | +308 |
| 64.5 | 19% | +441 |
| 67.5 | 13% | +700 |
| 70.5 | 9.5% | +953 |
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 10:33 AM and 10:53 AM ET.
Jaguars vs. Bengals stats
These figures cover the 2026 regular season through Week 2. The table compares each team’s record and per-game averages side by side.
| Team stat | Jaguars | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Points per game | 23.5 | 26.5 |
| Total yards per game | 314 | 309 |
| Passing yards per game | 217 | 230.5 |
| Rushing yards per game | 110.5 | 95.5 |
| First downs per game | 22 | 19 |
| Third-down conversion | 45.5% | 44.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Turnover differential | +2 | +3 |
| Sacks per game | 2.5 | 4 |
| Time of possession | 31:17 | 31:07 |
Stat leaders: Jaguars — passing, Trevor Lawrence (35/52, 434 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT); rushing, Bhayshul Tuten (28 CAR, 131 YDS, 1 TD); receiving, Parker Washington (12 REC, 181 YDS, 1 TD); Bengals — passing, Joe Burrow (45/66, 461 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT); rushing, Chase Brown (36 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD); receiving, Tee Higgins (8 REC, 154 YDS).
Source: ESPN team statistics. 2026 regular-season averages and leaders through Week 2; the section is refreshed as each week is completed.
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