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Kalshi and Polymarket price the likelihood of an outcome, not a candidate’s vote share or an official result. With Election Day approaching, that distinction matters more than ever.

With five days until the midterms, Kalshi traders favor Graham in a tied South Carolina race and give Moody a stronger edge in Florida, where she leads by six points.

Texas has drawn $47 million in trading as Kalshi favors Democratic candidates across several Republican-held seats. Close polls still leave plenty of room for a different outcome.

Election trading volume reached nearly $104 million across four prediction markets in the first 20 days of October, with Texas Senate and control of the House accounting for much of the increase.

A personal attack featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother has divided Republicans as traders grow more confident in the Democrat. They also favor Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s Senate race.

Traders favor the Democrat over Ken Paxton even as recent polls show a close race, putting Texas alongside Ohio as a potential Republican Senate loss.

My Ballot matches voters with their races and adds market odds where available, expanding an election hub Kalshi said attracts mostly non-traders.

Amy Acton remains the prediction-market favorite for Ohio governor as Trump and Vance campaign in a state Republicans increasingly have to defend.

David Crowley barely leads Tom Tiffany in a new Wisconsin poll, but prediction markets still heavily favor the Democrat to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers at nearly 80%.

More than $5 million has traded across Kalshi and Polymarket as California’s wealth-tax fight pits voter frustration with inequality against a heavily funded opposition campaign.

Prediction markets give Democrats a better-than-60% chance of winning the Senate and a commanding edge in the House, but closely watched Senate races still stand between a favorable map and a majority.

Xavier Becerra is returning campaign contributions from prediction markets platforms as he runs far ahead in the same companies’ California governor markets, an awkward overlap as Kalshi, Polymarket and allied firms spend heavily to shape the regulatory future of their industry.

Democrat Adam Hamilton is running even with Republican Roger Marshall in polling, drawing national money into a once-safe GOP seat, but Kalshi and Polymarket still give the incumbent a roughly three-in-five chance.

Republicans are committing $5 million to defend Sen. Darline Graham’s seat as Annie Andrews closes the polling gap, but prediction markets still expect the GOP to hold South Carolina at a nearly 90% probability.

Peggy Flanagan barely leads Republican Michele Tafoya in recent Minnesota Senate polls, but prediction markets still heavily favor the Democrat, a striking disagreement in a state that could complicate the fight for Senate control.

Nithya Raman is trading at 60% to win the Los Angeles mayor’s race after a poll gave her an 11-point lead over Karen Bass, but a large bloc of undecided voters leaves the incumbent a path back.

Republicans are turning allegations about Mary Peltola’s treatment of staff into an attack ad, but prediction markets still favor the Democrat over Sen. Dan Sullivan in a race that could help decide Senate control.

Democrats see a path through Republican-held heartland seats that once looked out of reach, but prediction markets remain more cautious.

Brown is favored on Kalshi and Polymarket, but Ohio remains far closer than North Carolina and could be the Republican-held seat that decides whether Democrats have a path to Senate control.

A new poll puts Roy Cooper 11 points ahead of Michael Whatley, while prediction markets treat North Carolina as Democrats’ clearest pickup opportunity on a difficult path to Senate control.