Economic Prediction Markets
The most-traded economics markets
Economics markets traded $1.3M on Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera in the last 24 hours, down 57% from the 24 hours before. The most traded was “Fed Decision in October?” on Polymarket, with $77K. Polymarket traders make No change the favorite at 83%, ahead of 25 bps increase at 17%.
Down 57%vs. the 24 hours before
Kalshi $922K · Polymarket $271K · Rothera $76K
Kalshi $18M · Polymarket US $229K
Kalshi 5,106 · Polymarket 870 · Polymarket US 144 · Rothera 30
$77K traded
Markets with odds on DeFi Rate open their page; the rest open the venue.
10 rows shown
| Market | Top outcomes | |
|---|---|---|
| 1Fed Decision in October?Polymarket · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | No change 83% · 25 bps increase 17% | $8.7M |
| 1Fed Decision in October?Polymarket · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | No change 83% · 25 bps increase 17% | $3.7M |
| 2Fed decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | Fed maintains rate 83% · Hike 25bps 18%Quote from Oct 4, 9:48 AM ET | $3.2M |
| 2Fed decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | Fed maintains rate 83% · Hike 25bps 18% | $2M |
| 3Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Yes 20% | $1.5M |
| 4Fed Decision in December?Polymarket | 25 bps increase 74% · No change 25% | $952K |
| 5How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | 0 (0 bps) 96% · 1 (25 bps) 1.8%Quote from Oct 4, 9:32 AM ET | $766K |
| 6Number of rate cuts in 2026?Kalshi · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Exactly 0 cuts 95% · Exactly 1 cut 3.9% | $646K |
| 3Fed Decision in December?Polymarket | 25 bps increase 74% · No change 25% | $559K |
| 7Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)Kalshi · Closes Oct 14, 2026 | Above 3.0% 99% · Above 3.1% 99%Quote from Oct 4, 7:25 AM ET | $434K |
| 4Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Yes 20% | $360K |
| 5US gas prices this weekKalshi · Closes Oct 4, 2026 | Above 4.3000 99% · Above 4.3200 99%Quote from Oct 4, 9:52 AM ET | $339K |
| 8US gas prices this weekKalshi · Closes Oct 4, 2026 | Above 4.3000 99% · Above 4.3200 99% | $339K |
| 9How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | 2 (50 bps) 64% · 1 (25 bps) 28% | $291K |
| 6Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)Kalshi · Closes Oct 14, 2026 | Above 3.0% 99% · Above 3.1% 99%Quote from Oct 4, 7:25 AM ET | $159K |
| 7How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | 0 (0 bps) 96% · 1 (25 bps) 1.8%Quote from Oct 4, 9:32 AM ET | $153K |
| 8Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?Kalshi · Closes Dec 9, 2026 | Above 2.75% 99% · Above 3.00% 99%Quote from Oct 4, 8:14 AM ET | $123K |
| 9US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?Polymarket | December 31 11% · October 31 2.4% | $118K |
| 1Fed Decision in October?Polymarket · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | No change 83% · 25 bps increase 17% | $77K |
| 2US gas prices this weekKalshi · Closes Oct 4, 2026 | Above 4.3000 99% · Above 4.3200 99%Quote from Oct 4, 9:52 AM ET | $67K |
| 3Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Yes 20% | $50K |
| 4Fed decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | Fed maintains rate 83% · Hike 25bps 18% | $41K |
| 5How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | 0 (0 bps) 96% · 1 (25 bps) 1.8%Quote from Oct 4, 9:32 AM ET | $34K |
| 6Largest Company end of December 2026?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | NVIDIA 84% · Apple 10% | $27K |
| 7Recession in 2027?Kalshi · Closes Jan 31, 2028 | Yes 17% | $27K |
| 8Wyoming total coal production in 2026Kalshi · Closes Apr 1, 2027 | Above 180 MMst 97% · Above 190 MMst 95%Quote from Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET | $18K |
| 9US gas prices tomorrowKalshi · Closes Oct 4, 2026 | Above 4.3300 99% · Above 4.3350 99%Quote from Oct 4, 9:40 AM ET | $14K |
| 10Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)Kalshi · Closes Oct 14, 2026 | Above 3.0% 99% · Above 3.1% 99%Quote from Oct 4, 7:25 AM ET | $13K |
Source: Kalshi / Polymarket / Polymarket US / Rothera via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 4, 8:30 AM ET; events ranked by volume, chances observed between Oct 4, 7:25 AM and 10:00 AM ET. A chance is the midpoint of the bid and ask, the last trade or the venue’s displayed price, as DeFi Rate’s market data reports it.
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Source: Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket / Polymarket US / ProphetX / Rothera / Underdog Exchange via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 4, 8:30 AM ET.