Economic Prediction Markets
The most-traded economics markets
Economics markets traded $2.9M on Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera in the last 24 hours, up 20% from the 24 hours before. The most traded was “Fed Decision in October?” on Polymarket, with $436K. Polymarket traders make No change the favorite at 85%, ahead of 25 bps increase at 16%.
Up 20%vs. the 24 hours before
Kalshi $2.3M · Polymarket $595K · Rothera $42K
Kalshi $21M · Polymarket US $229K
Kalshi 4,629 · Polymarket 867 · Polymarket US 159 · Rothera 31
$436K traded
Markets with odds on DeFi Rate open their page; the rest open the venue.
10 rows shown
| Market | Top outcomes | |
|---|---|---|
| 1Fed Decision in October?Polymarket · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | No change 85% · 25 bps increase 16% | $9.6M |
| 2Fed decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | Fed maintains rate 84% · Hike 25bps 17% | $3.6M |
| 1Fed Decision in October?Polymarket · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | No change 85% · 25 bps increase 16% | $2M |
| 3Fed Decision in December?Polymarket | 25 bps increase 76% · No change 23% | $1M |
| 2Fed decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | Fed maintains rate 84% · Hike 25bps 17% | $926K |
| 4Number of rate cuts in 2026?Kalshi · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Exactly 0 cuts 96% · Exactly 1 cut 2.7% | $593K |
| 5Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)Kalshi · Closes Oct 14, 2026 | Above 3.0% 99% · Above 3.1% 99% | $583K |
| 6CPI in SeptemberKalshi · Closes Oct 14, 2026 | Above -0.1% 99% · Above -0.2% 99%Quote from Oct 8, 8:33 PM ET | $493K |
| 1Fed Decision in October?Polymarket · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | No change 85% · 25 bps increase 16% | $436K |
| 7Largest Company end of December 2026?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | NVIDIA 84% · Apple 14% | $367K |
| 8How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | 5.4% 69% · 5.5% 40% | $322K |
| 9How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | 2 (50 bps) 71% · 1 (25 bps) 23% | $316K |
| 3CPI in SeptemberKalshi · Closes Oct 14, 2026 | Above -0.1% 99% · Above -0.2% 99%Quote from Oct 8, 8:33 PM ET | $276K |
| 4Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)Kalshi · Closes Oct 14, 2026 | Above 3.0% 99% · Above 3.1% 99% | $205K |
| 5US gas prices this weekKalshi · Closes Oct 11, 2026 | Above 4.1600 99% · Above 4.1800 99% | $190K |
| 6Fed Decision in December?Polymarket | 25 bps increase 76% · No change 23% | $153K |
| 7Largest Company end of December 2026?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | NVIDIA 84% · Apple 14% | $126K |
| 8Number of rate cuts in 2026?Kalshi · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Exactly 0 cuts 96% · Exactly 1 cut 2.7% | $93K |
| 9Gas prices in the US in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 30, 2026 | Above 2.50 99% · Above 2.60 99% | $93K |
| 2CPI in SeptemberKalshi · Closes Oct 14, 2026 | Above -0.1% 99% · Above -0.2% 99%Quote from Oct 8, 8:33 PM ET | $63K |
| 3Fed decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | Fed maintains rate 84% · Hike 25bps 17% | $57K |
| 4US gas prices this weekKalshi · Closes Oct 11, 2026 | Above 4.1600 99% · Above 4.1800 99% | $57K |
| 5Fed Decision in December?Polymarket | 25 bps increase 76% · No change 23% | $22K |
| 6Largest Company end of December 2026?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | NVIDIA 84% · Apple 14% | $20K |
| 7Gas prices in the US in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 30, 2026 | Above 2.50 99% · Above 2.60 99% | $16K |
| 8Diesel prices in Oct 2026Kalshi · Closes Oct 31, 2026 | Above $5.50 97% · Above $5.60 93%Quote from Oct 9, 12:14 AM ET | $14K |
| 9US SPR level for the week ending October 9, 2026Kalshi · Closes Oct 14, 2026 | Above 276M 99% · Above 277M 99% | $14K |
| 10Diesel prices this weekKalshi · Closes Oct 12, 2026 | Above $6.12 98% · Above $6.14 98%Quote from Oct 9, 1:13 AM ET | $14K |
Source: Gemini / Kalshi / Polymarket / Polymarket US / Rothera via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 9, 1:30 AM ET; events ranked by volume, chances observed between Oct 8, 8:33 PM ET and Oct 9, 3:20 AM ET. A chance is the midpoint of the bid and ask or the last trade, as DeFi Rate’s market data reports it.
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Source: DraftKings Predictions / Gemini / Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket / Polymarket US / ProphetX / Rothera / Underdog Exchange via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 9, 1:30 AM ET.