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- Netflix’s “The Prediction Games”: 36 Minutes Is Not Enough for Prediction Markets
Netflix's The Prediction Games is more balanced than its trailer, covering founders, regulators, traders and the worst outcomes, but its short runtime can't do any of them justice.
- CME’s Lawsuit Against CFTC Exposes the Age of Some Regulatory Definitions
Commodity trading veteran John Lothian tells DeFi Rate the CFTC misclassified crypto perpetual futures, as CME argues in its lawsuit, and that the fix must come from Congress.
- Kalshi Suspensions Include State Senator Sponsoring a Prediction Markets Ban
Kalshi suspended three candidates for trading on their own elections, including Minnesota State Sen. Matt Klein, a co-author of a bill to ban prediction markets.
- 14 Prediction Market Bills and Counting Reveal Deep Divisions, Long Odds
This year's prediction market bills in Congress focus on insider trading, war and sports markets and advertising, and analysts call them messaging bills with no path to passage.
- Trading on Super Bowl Ad Predictions: What Could Go Wrong?
Super Bowl advertising markets on Kalshi and Polymarket are prone to information leaks, which traders should weigh before taking positions.
- Government Shutdown Odds Spike To 80% As Funding Deadline Approaches
Prediction market traders are pricing an 80% likelihood of another government shutdown. They’re also anticipating how many days this one would last.
- California Wealth Tax Odds Signal Uncertainty as Billionaires Leave the State
With passage uncertain, ultra-wealthy Californians are already moving out of state and adjusting business ties ahead of a possible retroactive 5% billionaire tax.
- Will Gambling Tax Deduction Cap Spur Migration To Prediction Markets?
A new federal cap on deductible gambling losses takes effect in 2026, and some large and professional gamblers may shift to prediction markets if trading there is treated as investing.
- Sports Event Contracts Included In FanDuel/CME Group’s Prediction Markets Play
Flutter and CME Group announced FanDuel Predicts, a standalone app that will offer sports event contracts in states where sports betting is not legal.
- Sen. Addabbo: New York State Can’t ‘Wait on Sidelines’ To Address Prediction Markets
Assemblyman Clyde Vanel filed a bill to restrict prediction markets in New York, and Senate gaming chair Joseph Addabbo told DeFi Rate the state should act rather than wait.
- Schwab CEO Warns: Prediction Markets Are Making Gambling Look Like Investing
Schwab CEO Rick Wurster said sports contracts on prediction markets blur the line between gambling and investing, and he worries young people confuse the two.
- When Words Become a Market: The Problem With Turning Speech Into Something You Can Bet On
Brian Armstrong settled Kalshi and Polymarket mention markets by saying a few words on an earnings call, exposing markets whose subject can choose the outcome.
- Regulatory Inconsistencies, Not Sports, Drive SEC/CFTC Roundtable Discussion
Polymarket's Shayne Coplan and Kalshi's Tarek Mansour joined a joint SEC-CFTC roundtable on regulatory harmonization, where sports contracts never came up.