Broncos vs. 49ers Week 4 Odds & PredictionsThe 49ers are a 57% favorite at home against the Broncos
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. Prediction markets give the 49ers a 57% chance to win (−135) and the Broncos 42% (+136). Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket agree within a point. Kalshi's lines make it 49ers −2.5, with 48.5 total points. The 49ers are down 3 points this week on Kalshi. $312K has traded on the game in the last 24 hours.
About 3 in 5 (−135)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $174 if correct, before fees.
About 2 in 5 (+136)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $238 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
Broncos vs. 49ers moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ersHome · −135 | 57% $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $174 | Kalshi58¢ | Polymarket US57.3¢Lowest ask | Polymarket58¢ | |
| Denver BroncosAway · +136 | 42% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $238 | Kalshi42¢Lowest ask | Polymarket US43¢ | Polymarket43¢ |
Best prices to buy: San Francisco at 57.3¢ on Polymarket US; Denver at 42¢ on Kalshi. Buying both costs 99.3¢ and pays $1 whichever team wins: 0.75¢ locked in, before fees. Traded in the past 24 hours: $272K on Kalshi, $23K on Polymarket US and $16K on Polymarket.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 10:01 AM and 10:35 AM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, San Francisco lost 3 points, to 58%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 22 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Broncos vs. 49ers spread and over/under
Kalshi prices a ladder of margins and totals. The highlighted row is closest to a coin flip.
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2+ pts | 56% | −125 |
| 3+ pts | 53% | −111 |
| 4+ pts | 43% | +135 |
| 5+ pts | 40% | +153 |
| 6+ pts | 38% | +167 |
All 25 spread lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Broncos 2+ pts | 39% | +160 |
| Broncos 3+ pts | 38% | +167 |
| Broncos 4+ pts | 30% | +239 |
| Broncos 5+ pts | 27% | +277 |
| Broncos 6+ pts | 26% | +292 |
| Broncos 7+ pts | 22% | +365 |
| Broncos 8+ pts | 18% | +471 |
| Broncos 10+ pts | 15% | +590 |
| Broncos 11+ pts | 13% | +669 |
| Broncos 14+ pts | 11% | +852 |
| Broncos 15+ pts | 8% | +1150 |
| 49ers 2+ pts | 56% | −125 |
| 49ers 3+ pts | 53% | −111 |
| 49ers 4+ pts | 43% | +135 |
| 49ers 5+ pts | 40% | +153 |
| 49ers 6+ pts | 38% | +167 |
| 49ers 7+ pts | 35% | +190 |
| 49ers 8+ pts | 30% | +239 |
| 49ers 10+ pts | 25% | +308 |
| 49ers 11+ pts | 23% | +344 |
| 49ers 14+ pts | 18% | +471 |
| 49ers 15+ pts | 16% | +545 |
| 49ers 17+ pts | 13% | +700 |
| 49ers 18+ pts | 12% | +770 |
| 49ers 21+ pts | 8.5% | +1076 |
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 46.5 | 57% | −133 |
| 47.5 | 53% | −111 |
| 48.5 | 49% | +106 |
| 49.5 | 46% | +120 |
| 52.5 | 37% | +174 |
All 19 total lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 25.5 | 97% | −2757 |
| 28.5 | 95% | −1718 |
| 31.5 | 91% | −953 |
| 34.5 | 87% | −641 |
| 37.5 | 80% | −388 |
| 40.5 | 75% | −292 |
| 43.5 | 65% | −182 |
| 44.5 | 62% | −160 |
| 45.5 | 60% | −147 |
| 46.5 | 57% | −133 |
| 47.5 | 53% | −111 |
| 48.5 | 49% | +106 |
| 49.5 | 46% | +120 |
| 52.5 | 37% | +174 |
| 55.5 | 30% | +239 |
| 58.5 | 22% | +365 |
| 61.5 | 17% | +506 |
| 64.5 | 13% | +700 |
| 67.5 | 8.5% | +1076 |
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 10:25 AM and 10:35 AM ET.
Broncos vs. 49ers stats
These figures cover the 2026 regular season through Week 2. The table compares each team’s record and per-game averages side by side.
| Team stat | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Points per game | 15 | 31 |
| Total yards per game | 284 | 380.5 |
| Passing yards per game | 209.5 | 246 |
| Rushing yards per game | 82.5 | 134.5 |
| First downs per game | 15.5 | 23 |
| Third-down conversion | 26.1% | 63.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate | 42.9% | 87.5% |
| Turnover differential | −1 | +1 |
| Sacks per game | 2 | 2 |
| Time of possession | 28:47 | 31:48 |
Stat leaders: Broncos — passing, Bo Nix (39/59, 419 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT); rushing, J.K. Dobbins (18 CAR, 72 YDS); receiving, Jaylen Waddle (9 REC, 140 YDS); 49ers — passing, Brock Purdy (45/56, 492 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT); rushing, Christian McCaffrey (20 CAR, 91 YDS, 2 TD); receiving, Mike Evans (9 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD).
Source: ESPN team statistics. 2026 regular-season averages and leaders through Week 2; the section is refreshed as each week is completed.
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