Best AI Model of 2026 Odds & PredictionsAnthropic is a 53% favorite to have the best AI model at the end of 2026
Google is next at 39% on Polymarket. Of the companies Kalshi lists, OpenAI has the best chance of taking #1 before 2027, at 20%, against 6.4% to hold it at year-end.
About even
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $188 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 5
Kalshi: reaches #1 at any point before 2027
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $476 if correct, before fees.
Best AI model of 2026 odds by company
Polymarket's price is the chance a company has the #1 model on the Arena text leaderboard when 2026 ends. Kalshi's is the chance it takes #1 at any point before then, so it runs higher: holding the top spot at year-end is harder than reaching it once. Tap a price to trade it.
| Company | #1 at the end of 2026Polymarket | Takes #1 in 2026Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 53%Polymarket53¢ | ✓ Already #1#1 at every month's end, Feb–Sep on Polymarket |
| 39%Polymarket39¢ | ✓ Already #1#1 at the end of January on Polymarket | |
| OpenAI | 6.4%Polymarket6.6¢ | 20%Kalshi21¢ |
| xAI | 2.2%Polymarket2.3¢ | 14%Kalshi14¢ |
| Meta | 1.2%Polymarket1.2¢ | 9.5%Kalshi11¢ |
| Alibaba | 0.5%Polymarket0.50¢ | 3%Kalshi5¢ |
| DeepSeek | 0.4%Polymarket0.40¢ | 3.5%Kalshi5¢ |
| Z.ai | 0.3%Polymarket0.30¢ | 7%Kalshi9¢ |
| Moonshot | 0.3%Polymarket0.30¢ | 3.5%Kalshi5¢ |
| ByteDance | 0.3%Polymarket0.30¢ | 3.5%Kalshi6¢ |
| Baidu | 0.2%Polymarket0.10¢ | 3.5%Kalshi6¢ |
| Mistral | 0.2%Polymarket0.10¢ | 2.5%Kalshi3¢ |
| Meituan | 0.2%Polymarket0.10¢ | Not listed |
| Amazon | 0.2%Polymarket0.10¢ | Not listed |
| Microsoft | 0.2%Polymarket0.10¢ | Not listed |
| Nvidia | Not listed | 3.5%Kalshi5¢ |
| 01A1 | Not listed | 1.5%Kalshi2¢ |
Kalshi doesn't list Anthropic and Google: both have already been #1 this year, on Polymarket's settled monthly markets. Chance is each venue's price for Yes. Source: Polymarket via DeFi Rate and Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 8:06 AM and 10:02 AM ET.
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Polymarket traders make Anthropic the favorite at 53%, ahead of Google at 39%.
About even
About 2 in 5
Most traded: Anthropic ($999)
Prices to buy each outcome, or the last trade where no one is selling. Tap a price to open Polymarket.
| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 53% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $188 | Polymarket53¢ | ||
| 39% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $256 | Polymarket39¢ | |||
| OpenAI | 6.4% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $1,515 | Polymarket6.6¢ | ||
| xAI | 2.2% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $4,347 | Polymarket2.3¢ | ||
| Meta | 1.2% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $8,333 | Polymarket1.2¢ | ||
| Alibaba | 0.5% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $20,000 | Polymarket0.50¢ | ||
| DeepSeek | 0.4% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $25,000 | Polymarket0.40¢ | ||
| Moonshot | 0.3% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $33,333 | Polymarket0.30¢ | ||
| Z.ai | 0.3% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $33,333 | Polymarket0.30¢ | ||
| ByteDance | 0.3% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $33,333 | Polymarket0.30¢ | ||
| Meituan | 0.2% At last trade, $100 returns $100,000 | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Amazon | 0.2% At last trade, $100 returns $100,000 | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Baidu | 0.2% At last trade, $100 returns $100,000 | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Microsoft | 0.2% At last trade, $100 returns $100,000 | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Mistral | 0.2% At last trade, $100 returns $100,000 | Polymarket0.10¢ | ||
| Company K | – | PolymarketNo quote | ||
| Company G | – | PolymarketNo quote | ||
| Company C | – | PolymarketNo quote | ||
| Company D | – | PolymarketNo quote | ||
| Company F | – | PolymarketNo quote | ||
| Company E | – | PolymarketNo quote | ||
| Other | – | PolymarketNo quote | ||
| Company A | – | PolymarketNo quote | ||
| Company H | – | PolymarketNo quote | ||
| Company I | – | PolymarketNo quote | ||
| Company B | – | PolymarketNo quote | ||
Open Chance is Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:58 AM and 10:02 AM ET.
Over the past week on Polymarket, Google gained 29 points, to 39%, and Anthropic lost the most, 22 points to 53%.
Source: Polymarket daily close via DeFi Rate, Aug 3 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
Kalshi traders give OpenAI the highest chance, 20%, ahead of xAI at 14%. More than one outcome can resolve Yes.
About 1 in 5
About 1 in 7
Most traded: OpenAI ($643)
10:00 AM ET
Prices to buy each outcome. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi.
| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 20% | Kalshi21¢ | ||
| xAI | 14% | Kalshi14¢ | ||
| Meta | 9.5% | Kalshi11¢ | ||
| Z.ai | 7% | Kalshi9¢ | ||
| Baidu | 3.5% | Kalshi6¢ | ||
| ByteDance | 3.5% | Kalshi6¢ | ||
| Deepseek | 3.5% | Kalshi5¢ | ||
| Moonshot AI | 3.5% | Kalshi5¢ | ||
| Nvidia | 3.5% | Kalshi5¢ | ||
| Alibaba | 3% | Kalshi5¢ | ||
| Mistral | 2.5% | Kalshi3¢ | ||
| 01A1 | 1.5% | Kalshi2¢ | ||
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 8:06 AM and 9:50 AM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, xAI gained the most, 6 points to 14%, and OpenAI lost 2 points, to 20%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Aug 3 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 4, 10:02 AM ET).
Two prediction markets price the AI race over the whole of 2026. Polymarket asks which company will have the top model on the Arena text leaderboard when the year ends. Kalshi asks a different question: which companies will have a #1 ranked model at any point before January 1, 2027. The odds above update through the day from both venues.
For the race at the end of this month, see our best AI model odds this month, which also lists every month's winner.
How the two markets differ
Polymarket: who is #1 on December 31. Exactly one company wins. Each company's price is the market's chance that it owns the top-ranked model when the leaderboard is checked at noon Eastern on December 31, 2026, so the prices across companies add up to about 100%.
Kalshi: who reaches #1 at any point this year. Each company is its own yes/no contract, and more than one can resolve Yes. A company only needs to hold the top spot once before the year ends. Kalshi doesn't list Anthropic or Google, which have both held #1 this year; the contracts left are on the companies still trying to get there, led by OpenAI.
So a company can trade low on Polymarket and higher on Kalshi: briefly taking #1 after a big launch is easier than still holding it at year-end.
How to read the odds
Contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢ and pay $1.00 if they resolve Yes. The price is the market's implied chance: a contract at 74¢ implies roughly a 74% chance, before fees and the gap between the bid and the ask. Year-long markets trade less than the monthly ones, so a single large order can move the smaller contracts several points.
For where to trade, see our list of prediction market apps.
How these markets resolve
Polymarket resolves on the Rank column of the Arena text leaderboard, with style control off, as it reads at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. A tie on rank goes to the higher Arena score. Kalshi's contracts resolve Yes if the company has a #1 ranked AI model before January 1, 2027; its market rules set the leaderboard and ranking it checks.
Arena ranks models by head-to-head votes from users rather than by vendor-reported benchmarks, so a new model needs time to collect enough comparisons before it can rank first.
- Which company is favored to have the best AI model at the end of 2026?
The company with the highest price in the Polymarket market above. Its price is the market's chance that the company owns the #1 model on the Arena text leaderboard on December 31, 2026.
- Why isn't Anthropic in Kalshi's market?
Kalshi's market asks which companies will have a #1 model at any point in 2026. Anthropic and Google have both held the top spot this year, so Kalshi doesn't list them; its contracts are on the companies that haven't yet.
- How is this different from the monthly AI model market?
The monthly markets resolve on the leaderboard at the end of each month. These resolve on the whole year: Polymarket's at the end of December, and Kalshi's on any #1 before January 1, 2027. See the monthly odds.
- How often do these odds update?
Through the day. Each section shows when its prices were observed.
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