Polymarket is 2.6 points higher than Kalshi on a Democratic Senate
Kalshi’s figure is built from two contracts, so the comparison is close, not exact.
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Which company will have the best AI model?
- This month: Traders Give Gemini 4 Carbon (High) an 80% Chance to Be the Top AI Model at the End of November.
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Power of Congress
Democrats are favored to win both chambers.
- Democrats win the House98%
- Democrats win the Senate87%
Politics · Biggest move this week
Who wins the Senate?
87%Democrats
About 9 in 10▲ Up 22 pts this week
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $115 if correct, before fees.
History: Kalshi + Polymarket. Shaded = no data in our feed. Sources & history› Full page →
Market moves
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Nov 3, 7:03 PM ET).
Today · Nov 3
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Disagreements
Where the sources don’t match
A Republican sweep costs 2.9¢ on Kalshi and 1.8¢ on Polymarket
Matching contracts on both venues. Long shots are often pricier on one.
Kalshi prices a December hike at 86.5% in one market and 96.5% in another
Two contracts that settle on the same outcome.
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Every number has receipts
SourcesTap any figure to see the exact contracts, bid and ask, quote age and history.
One methodHeadline figures average Kalshi and Polymarket where both list the question. One venue alone is labeled.
TimestampsData observation and editorial updates are shown separately.
CitableEvery page has a permanent snapshot and downloadable data.