Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
- None34% 3 pts today (down)
$6.6M traded on Polymarket in 24 hours
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Democrats are favored to win both chambers.
- Democrats win the House94% 1 pt today (down)
- Democrats win the Senate75% 1 pt today (up)
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Politics · Biggest move this week
Who wins the Senate?
75%Democrats
About 3 in 4▲ Up 10 pts this week
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $132 if correct, before fees.
History: Kalshi + Polymarket. Shaded = no data in our feed. Sources & history› Full page →
Market moves
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Nov 3, 11:37 AM ET).
Today · Nov 3
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Disagreements
Where the sources don’t match
Polymarket is 0.3 points higher than Kalshi on a Democratic Senate
Kalshi’s figure is built from two contracts, so the comparison is close, not exact.
A Republican sweep costs 6.6¢ on Kalshi and 4.5¢ on Polymarket
Matching contracts on both venues. Long shots are often pricier on one.
Kalshi prices a December hike at 74.0% in one market and 76.5% in another
Two contracts that settle on the same outcome.
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