Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Democratic Party92%No change today
$1.9M traded on Polymarket in 24 hours
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Which company will have the best AI model?
- This month: Google is the clear favorite at 86%.
- This year: Anthropic is a 54% favorite to have the best AI model at the end of 2026.
Democrats are favored to win both chambers.
- Democrats win the House91%No change today
- Democrats win the Senate64%No change today
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
- Cowboys to win68%
Economy · Biggest move this week
Will the Fed hike on Oct. 28?
5%Hike
About 1 in 20▼ Down 8 pts this week
Last trades; the price to buy may differ. At the last traded price, $100 would return $2,222 if correct, before fees.
History: Kalshi. Shaded = no data in our feed. Sources & history› Full page →
Market moves
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 26, 3:30 AM ET).
Today · Oct 26
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Disagreements
Where the sources don’t match
Polymarket is 0.4 points higher than Kalshi on a Democratic Senate
Kalshi’s figure is built from two contracts, so the comparison is close, not exact.
A Republican sweep costs 10.5¢ on Kalshi and 7.5¢ on Polymarket
Matching contracts on both venues. Long shots are often pricier on one.
Kalshi prices an October hike at 5.0% in one market and 6.5% in another
Two contracts that settle on the same outcome.
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One methodHeadline figures average Kalshi and Polymarket where both list the question. One venue alone is labeled.
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