NFL Week 4 Predictions: Latest Spread from Kalshi and Polymarket

Week 4 begins Thursday, Oct. 1, with Steelers (58%) at Browns (43%), both 2-1 after Sunday victories. The Colts (64%) and Commanders (37%) kick off Sunday in London at 9:30 a.m. ET following their first wins of the season.

The Lions (65%) visit the Panthers (36%) on Sunday night, while the Falcons (42%) visit the Saints (59%) to close the week Monday night. Below are Week 4 odds and predictions directly from Kalshi and Polymarket US.

NFL week 4 odds: Compare lines and totals for every game updated daily

Week 4 odds, spread and moneyline at Kalshi

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns | Thursday, Oct. 1 | 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH |

Pittsburgh's 30-27 win over Cincinnati and Cleveland's 21-18 victory against Carolina put both AFC North rivals at 2-1 entering Thursday. Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes for the Steelers. The Pittsburgh defense sealed the win with a late strip-sack and recovery. Cleveland's defensive front pressured Bryce Young throughout its win, with Deshaun Watson connecting with Harold Fannin Jr. for the game-winning score with under two minutes to go.

Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London |

Indianapolis and Washington each earned their first win Sunday, leaving both at 1-2 before their London meeting. The Colts beat Houston 19-17 on a late field goal, while the Commanders edged Seattle 33-31 with Marcus Mariota starting in place of Jayden Daniels. Washington's Week 4 quarterback situation remains worth watching, as Daniels is expected to miss 2-4 weeks.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |

Arizona lost 36-30 at San Francisco, while the Giants beat Tennessee 12-7 to move to 2-1. New York won with Jameis Winston starting following the season-ending injury to Jaxson Dart. The Cardinals have dropped two straight since upsetting the Chargers in their opener. In early-week pricing, this is the tightest Week 4 game on the board.

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX |

Dallas fell 34-31 to Baltimore in Brazil, and Houston lost 19-17 at Indianapolis after surrendering the lead late. The Cowboys are 1-2, while the Texans fell to 0-3 after another narrow defeat. Dallas is averaging 29.3 points per game and giving up 27.3 per contest. Houston has scored an average of 18.0 through three games and surrendered 25.0.

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |

Green Bay lost 35-14 to Atlanta on Thursday, and Tampa Bay fell 23-16 to Minnesota on Sunday. The Packers enter at 1-2, while the Buccaneers are 0-3 after Minnesota sacked Baker Mayfield six times. Mayfield exited late with a hand injury. He’s scheduled for an MRI on a dislocated right thumb to determine the extent of the damage.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |

Jacksonville routed New England 35-6 to move to 2-1, with Trevor Lawrence throwing three touchdown passes. Cincinnati slipped to 2-1 after a 30-27 loss in Pittsburgh, despite its offense keeping pace until the Steelers' late strip-sack. The Bengals are a narrow home favorite in early trading.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |

The Rams lost 30-26 at Denver after leading 16-0 at halftime and enter Week 4 at 1-2. Philadelphia fell 27-7 at Chicago on Monday to drop to 2-1, turning the ball over three times and gaining just 52 net yards after halftime. Los Angeles is now a firmer road favorite at 61%, while the Eagles need a response from Jalen Hurts and their offense.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |

Buffalo beat the Chargers 24-16 despite committing five turnovers and improved to 3-0. New England fell 35-6 at Jacksonville and sits at 1-2. The undefeated Bills are heavily favored at home, while the Patriots hit the road searching for answers after an uneven start to the season.

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |

The Jets lost 31-24 at Detroit and enter Week 4 at 1-2. Chicago beat Philadelphia 27-7 on Monday behind two touchdown passes and a rushing score from Case Keenum, plus three defensive takeaways. Chicago is 2-1 and favored at home, though Caleb Williams' hamstring injury leaves its Week 4 quarterback picture worth monitoring.

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |

Tennessee lost 12-7 at the Giants and is 0-3, while Baltimore beat Dallas 34-31 in Brazil on Tyler Loop's 56-yard late field goal to reach 2-1. The Titans struggled to finish drives against New York, but did manage to come from behind and keep the game interesting late. Baltimore’s win over the Cowboys came on the heels of a blown fourth quarter lead at home to the Saints.

Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |

Miami lost 24-10 at home to Kansas City to fall to 0-3. Minnesota beat Tampa Bay 23-16 to improve to 3-0, leaning on a defense that sacked Baker Mayfield six times and frustrated the Buccaneers. Through three games, the Dolphins are last in the league in point differential at -50.

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |

Denver erased a 16-0 halftime deficit to beat the Rams 30-26, while San Francisco held off Arizona 36-30 behind four Brock Purdy touchdown passes. Bo Nix threw for two scores and ran for another as the Broncos controlled the second half. The Denver defense pitched in on the scoreboard via a 66-yard pick six from Talanoa Hufanga.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |

Kansas City beat Miami 24-10, and Las Vegas won 35-27 at New Orleans, leaving both AFC West rivals at 3-0. The Raiders forced four fourth-quarter takeaways against the Saints, while Patrick Mahomes threw two touchdown passes in the Chiefs' win. Sunday's divisional meeting will settle early control of the division, and reduce the number of undefeated teams by one.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |

The Chargers fell 24-16 at Buffalo and are 0-3. Seattle lost 33-31 at Washington despite four Sam Darnold touchdown passes, two to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, dropping the Seahawks to 2-1. Los Angeles entered the season viewed as an AFC West contender, but is now searching for answers and looking to snap a three-game skid.

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Sunday, Oct. 4 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |

Detroit beat the Jets 31-24 behind three second-half Jahmyr Gibbs touchdowns, including the winning reception. Carolina lost 21-18 at Cleveland after its offense struggled against the Browns' defensive pressure. The Lions are 2-1 and the Panthers 1-2 entering Sunday night, with market pricing leaning toward the road side.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints | Monday, Oct. 5 | 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |

Atlanta routed Green Bay 35-14 on Thursday, with Bijan Robinson rushing for 194 yards and two touchdowns to lift the Falcons to 1-2. New Orleans fell 35-27 to Las Vegas after four fourth-quarter turnovers and is also 1-2. When the NFC South rivals meet Monday night, the winner could take the early lead in the division chase, pending results from other games.

Notable Week 4 line moves

Green Bay has climbed from 52% to 64% against Tampa Bay, the biggest Week 4 move since the first Sept. 22 snapshot. Miami fell from 28% to 17% at Minnesota, while Detroit rose from 55% to 65% at Carolina.

The Rams have climbed from 52% to 61% at Philadelphia, while Chicago is up from 58% to 63% against the Jets. Arizona moved from 48% to 53% at the Giants, Denver rose from 37% to 43% against San Francisco, and Dallas slipped from 50% to 44% at Houston.

NFL futures market outlook

With Week 3 complete, Buffalo leads the Kalshi 2027 Super Bowl winner market at 12.5%, followed by the Rams at 11.5% and San Francisco at 9.5%.

Behind the leaders, Baltimore and Kansas City are at 7.5%, with Seattle at 6.5%. Since Sept. 22, Buffalo rose from 11.5% to 12.5%, while the Rams slipped from 12.5% to 11.5%.

Josh Allen leads the Kalshi 2026-27 NFL MVP market at 25.5%. Through three games, Allen has thrown for five scores and rushed for another six as Buffalo opens the season at 3-0.

Brock Purdy has moved into second place at 18.5%. Rounding out the top five are Lamar Jackson at 11.5%, Joe Burrow at 8.5%, and Patrick Mahomes at 7.5%. Allen was at 27.5% on Sept. 22, while Purdy was at 9.5%.

Readers can compare prediction market apps and review current NFL promos before choosing where to trade Week 4 and season-long contracts. You can also print a Week 4 pick-em sheet.