62%Democrats
About 3 in 5
Last trades; the price to buy may differ. At the last traded price, $100 would return $170 if correct, before fees.
2028 Presidential Election Odds Democrats are favored. JD Vance is the likeliest winner.
Democrats are favored to win the White House, and Vance leads the Republican nomination field. Both can be true: the Democratic chance is spread across several possible nominees, while Vance holds more than half of the Republican side on his own.
47%JD Vance
Leads the field, short of even odds
Last trades; the price to buy may differ. At the last traded price, $100 would return $224 if correct, before fees.
20%JD Vance
About 1 in 5, the likeliest single person
Kalshi–Polymarket20.3¢
Last trade; the price to buy may differ. At the last traded price, $100 would return $493 if correct, before fees.
The field
Every candidate, by contest
Pick a contest. Each row shows the chance and the price to buy on each venue, linked to that candidate’s market in that contest.
Prices are the last trade on each venue. Tap one to open that candidate’s market.
| Candidate | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD VanceRepublican | 47% At last trade, $100 returns $224 | Kalshi44.5¢ | Polymarket50.2¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Marco RubioRepublican | 16% At last trade, $100 returns $651 | Kalshi17.5¢ | Polymarket15.3¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Ron DeSantisRepublican | 3.4% At last trade, $100 returns $3,846 | Kalshi4.3¢ | Polymarket2.6¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Tucker CarlsonRepublican | 2.9% At last trade, $100 returns $3,636 | Kalshi2.8¢ | Polymarket3.1¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Ted CruzRepublican | 2.3% At last trade, $100 returns $4,878 | Kalshi2.1¢ | Polymarket2.6¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Donald Trump Jr.Republican | 2.2% At last trade, $100 returns $6,451 | Kalshi2.8¢ | Polymarket1.6¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Donald TrumpRepublican | 2.1% At last trade, $100 returns $5,128 | Kalshi2.3¢ | Polymarket1.9¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Ivanka TrumpRepublican | 1.0% At last trade, $100 returns $11,764 | Kalshi1.2¢ | Polymarket0.85¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Jon OssoffDemocrat | 16% At last trade, $100 returns $647 | Kalshi16.5¢ | Polymarket15.4¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDemocrat | 15% At last trade, $100 returns $740 | Kalshi13.5¢ | Polymarket17.2¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Gavin NewsomDemocrat | 15% At last trade, $100 returns $740 | Kalshi13.5¢ | Polymarket17¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Kamala HarrisDemocrat | 6.9% At last trade, $100 returns $1,526 | Kalshi7.2¢ | Polymarket6.6¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Josh ShapiroDemocrat | 5.2% At last trade, $100 returns $2,150 | Kalshi4.7¢ | Polymarket5.8¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Pete ButtigiegDemocrat | 5.1% At last trade, $100 returns $1,980 | Kalshi5.1¢ | Polymarket5.1¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Andy BeshearDemocrat | 4.3% At last trade, $100 returns $3,278 | Kalshi5.5¢ | Polymarket3¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Mark KellyDemocrat | 3.4% At last trade, $100 returns $3,846 | Kalshi4.3¢ | Polymarket2.6¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| James TalaricoDemocrat | 2.9% At last trade, $100 returns $3,921 | Kalshi3.4¢ | Polymarket2.5¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Rahm EmanuelDemocrat | 2.1% At last trade, $100 returns $6,060 | Kalshi2.6¢ | Polymarket1.7¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| JD VanceRepublican | 20% At last trade, $100 returns $493 | Kalshi– | Polymarket20.3¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDemocrat | 13% At last trade, $100 returns $754 | Kalshi– | Polymarket13.3¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Jon OssoffDemocrat | 11% At last trade, $100 returns $921 | Kalshi– | Polymarket10.8¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Marco RubioRepublican | 9.0% At last trade, $100 returns $1,104 | Kalshi– | Polymarket9¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Gavin NewsomDemocrat | 7.2% At last trade, $100 returns $1,379 | Kalshi– | Polymarket7.2¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Kamala HarrisDemocrat | 4.0% At last trade, $100 returns $2,531 | Kalshi– | Polymarket4¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Josh ShapiroDemocrat | 3.0% At last trade, $100 returns $3,278 | Kalshi– | Polymarket3¢ | Sources & contracts› |
| Pete ButtigiegDemocrat | 2.8% At last trade, $100 returns $3,636 | Kalshi– | Polymarket2.8¢ | Sources & contracts› |
Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:19 AM and 10:01 AM ET. Some quotes are stale: they weren’t observed recently and may have moved. Each candidate’s sources show when. This page doesn’t chart 2028 price history yet, so there’s no change column.
The evidence
Party odds by source, and who wins if nominated
Which party wins · by sourcelast trade
If nominated, who wins?our calculation
| Candidate | Nomination | Presidency | If nominated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ocasio-Cortez | 17% | 13% | 77% |
| Jon Ossoff | 15% | 11% | 70% |
| Kamala Harris | 7% | 4% | 60% |
| Marco Rubio | 15% | 9% | 59% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5% | 3% | 55% |
| Josh Shapiro | 6% | 3% | 53% |
| Gavin Newsom | 17% | 7% | 43% |
| JD Vance | 50% | 20% | 40% |
Chance to win the presidency ÷ chance to win the nomination, both from Polymarket. Not a market price; noisy for long shots.
Trading detail
Compare prices
Each venue’s price for the market you pick, what your order would pay, and the estimated fee.
Which party wins 2028: Democrats, all venues
Pick a market and an amount
| Venue | Price | 24h traded | Est. fee | Payout if correct | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiLast trade | 58.5¢Last trade | $305 | $2.89 | $170before fees | Kalshi58.5¢ |
| PolymarketLast trade | 64.5¢Last trade | $42 | n/a | $155before fees | Polymarket64.5¢ |
“Price to buy” is the venue’s current ask; “last trade” is the most recent trade and may not be available now. We don’t yet measure how many contracts are available at a price, so large orders may fill higher. Est. fee uses Kalshi’s published taker-fee formula, per contract in a bundle; other venues’ fees aren’t in our feed. DeFi Rate may earn a commission when you open an account through these links. 18+ (21+ in some states).
Explanation
How 2028 election odds work
How 2028 election markets work
Each contract asks a yes-or-no question, such as “Will a Democrat win the 2028 presidential election?” or “Will JD Vance be the Republican nominee?” It pays $1 if the answer is yes and nothing if it’s no, so a 62¢ price means traders put the chance at about 62%. These markets settle after the November 2028 election, more than two years away, so prices can move a long way before then.
Three different questions
- Which party wins: the broadest question, and the most traded.
- Who wins each nomination: the primaries, which run through the first half of 2028.
- Who wins the presidency: a person-level market, where each candidate’s price reflects both winning the nomination and then the general election.
“If nominated, who wins?” explained
No market asks this directly, so we calculate it: a candidate’s chance to win the presidency divided by their chance to win the nomination. It’s a rough guide to how electable traders think each candidate is. It’s our calculation, not a price, and it gets noisy for long shots whose prices are small.
Key dates
Candidates typically announce in 2027. The primaries and caucuses run from early 2028, the conventions follow in the summer, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2028.
Methodology
Figures average Kalshi and Polymarket last-traded prices where both list the outcome, and use one venue alone (labeled) where not. “If nominated” is our own calculation and always labeled as one. Full methodology →
Full methodology
PricesEach venue is priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise at its last trade, and every source record says which.
AveragesHeadline figures average the venues that list the same outcome. A venue without a single matching contract is labeled “constructed” or left out.
Timestamps“Data observed” is when prices were read; “Updated” is when an editor last changed the text.
Stale quotesQuotes our data provider marks stale are shown but never averaged.
Activity, not depth24-hour dollars traded is recent activity, not how much you can buy at a price.
Data and sources
- Source records for every number on this page: contracts, quote types, calculations and history
- DeFi Rate prediction-market methodology: how we price, average and label every figure
- Permanent snapshot, Oct 4, 10:03 AM ET: a frozen copy for citation
- 2028 nomination odds by venue (CSV)
- 2028 presidential winner (Polymarket) (CSV)
- Which party wins 2028 (CSV)
- Every figure and contract on this page (CSV)
Questions
Who is favored to win the 2028 presidential election?
As a party, Democrats, at about 62%. As a person, JD Vance is the single likeliest winner at about 20% on Polymarket.
Why are Democrats favored if Vance is the likeliest winner?
The party market asks which party wins, so the Democratic figure adds up the chances of every possible Democratic nominee. The leading Democrat is only about 16% to be nominated, so no single Democrat’s chance of winning the presidency matches Vance’s 20%. Vance alone accounts for about 53% of the Republican side’s 39%.
Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee?
JD Vance leads the field at about 47%, with Marco Rubio second. That’s short of even odds, so the nomination is still open.
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee?
No one is favored. Jon Ossoff, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom are nearly tied in the mid-teens.
Why don’t the candidate odds add up to the party odds?
They come from different markets with different traders, and the person-level winner market is Polymarket only. Small gaps between related markets are normal.
About the authors
Pat Evans has covered complex industries for nearly two decades, including sports betting, sports business and, at iGaming Business, prediction markets, before joining DeFi Rate in 2026.
Cheryle Shepstone is DeFi Rate’s Director of Content and Strategy and oversees its prediction-market research, platform reviews and editorial methodology.
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