Super Bowl Halftime Show OddsJAY-Z is the likeliest, at 46%

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Kalshi lists 48 performers in the 2027 headliner futures market

The 2027 field is more than double the size of Kalshi’s 2026 headliner market, which listed roughly 20 performers before Bad Bunny was selected. Eleven names carry over from last year’s board, including Taylor Swift, Post Malone, JAY-Z, Miley Cyrus, Billie Eilish, Drake, Sabrina Carpenter, Dua Lipa, Foo Fighters, Morgan Wallen, and Metallica. Lady Gaga, who joined Bad Bunny on stage tonight to perform “Die With a Smile,” is also listed on the 2027 market.

Two names that have never headlined a Super Bowl halftime show stand out from the rest of the field.

Taylor Swift, Spotify’s most-streamed artist of all time, appeared on Kalshi’s 2026 headliner board but was not among the top five. Her Eras Tour grossed $2.08 billion and sold 10.2 million tickets across 149 shows — the highest-grossing concert tour in history — and she is already listed among early 2027 sportsbook favorites.

Post Malone finished second on Kalshi’s 2026 headliner market at 25%, behind only JAY-Z, and enters the 2027 cycle with nine RIAA diamond-certified singles, including “Sunflower,” the first song to reach double-diamond status. His Big Ass Stadium Tour grossed $198 million and sold 1.37 million tickets in 2025, with a Part 2 scheduled for summer 2026.

Neither artist has ever performed at a Super Bowl halftime show.

2026 Super Bowl halftime controversy

Bad Bunny headlined the halftime show in 2026. More than 128 million people tuned in to watch the Puerto Rican artist perform hits from his Grammy-winning album, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS. That made it the fourth-most-watched halftime show of all time, behind only Kendrick Lamar (2025), Michael Jackson (1993), and Usher (2024).

The show featured a host of guest performers and celebrity appearances. Lady Gaga and Ricky Martin both performed alongside Bad Bunny, while the likes of Cardi B, Young Miko, Karol G, Dave Grutman, Pedro Pascal, Jessica Alba, and Ronald Acuña Jr appeared during the spectacle.

Traders bet more than $47.3 million on Kalshi’s market for “Who will perform at the Big Game?” A similar market at Polymarket had more than $10 million in volume.

Did Cardi B perform or not? Polymarket said yes, Kalshi said no

The market expected Cardi B to perform during the halftime show in 2026. Trading volumes reached $2.6 million across Kalshi and Polymarket on her performing. Anyone that bought “yes” contracts on Cardi B would have been delighted when she appeared on a starry front porch during Bad Bunny’s show.

However, her brief cameo ended up causing a great deal of controversy. Cardi B danced to the music, but it’s unclear whether she was singing along. This presented prediction sites with a major conundrum.

Polymarket’s contract was settled as “yes,” as the company decided that she had performed, but Kalshi took a different approach. The site couldn’t decide whether she performed or not, so it issued partial payouts to all traders. Contracts were settled at the last price before trading was paused: $0.74 for “no” holders and $0.26 for “yes” holders.

Kalshi ultimately returned all the money to traders. The company cited the “ambiguity” over whether her attendance constituted a “qualifying performance.” Spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said: “Under the full rules, singing and dancing counted as a performance, but just dancing in the background did not. In the as-broadcast performance, Cardi B was dancing and mouthing words to the song, but it was unclear if she was ‘singing.’”

The decision proved contentious. A Kalshi user filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets. Polymarket’s decision to resolve the contract as “yes” was also disputed, as traders that opted for “no” argued that she didn’t perform. The appeal process is currently ongoing.

Kalshi and Polymarket resolution criteria

Before trading any halftime market, read how it resolves. Both Kalshi and Polymarket operate similarly, but resolution is settled differently.

Contracts trade between $0.01 and $1.00, and the price equals implied probability. A contract at $0.45 implies a 45% chance of that artist performing or making an appearance.

You buy Yes if you think Cardi B will perform, and No if you don’t she will sing. Winning contracts pay $1.00 per contract, and you can sell before settlement if the market moves your way.

Markets close before the performance starts and settle based on what actually happens.

Kalshi’s first song market is specific: a song counts as performed if it’s “at least reasonably begun.” Medleys count each song in order of appearance. Interludes, instrumentals, and sound checks don’t qualify. The market is mutually exclusive, so only one song can win.

Polymarket’s performer markets resolve based on media confirmation. Sources include Billboard, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, official broadcaster coverage, and the performers’ own social media accounts. If an artist appears but no credible source confirms it, the market may not resolve as expected.

Both platforms use footage from the halftime show as the primary resolution source, supplemented by credible reporting. If the event is cancelled or delayed past a specified date, markets resolve to No.

These details matter. A brief instrumental intro before the first song won’t count on Kalshi, and a surprise performer who doesn’t get media coverage might not trigger a Yes on Polymarket.