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NFL Week 1 VolumeThe public went 12–4 in Week 1, with $353.17M traded

Prediction market traders put $353.17M on NFL Week 1's games, $204.17M of it on who would win and $36.20M on player props. The most went to Broncos at Chiefs ($59.91M). Most of the money was on the winner in 12 of 16 games; the costliest miss was the Chargers, with 82% of their game's money, who lost to the Cardinals.

By Data observed
Final
Traded on Week 1 games
$353.17M
5,707,710 trades16 games
What’s being traded
Winner $204.17MSpread $52.09MTotal $27.87MQuarters & halves $7.05MPlayer props $36.20MOther $25.80M
By exchangeCompare →
  • Kalshi$310.86M88%
  • Polymarket US$11.87M3%
  • Polymarket$30.44M9%
Money by day
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
$145.61MSun
Mon
$40.16MTue
Every game, by money tradedTraded
DENKC$59.91MDALNYG$57.41MNESEA$50.32MSFLAR$45.28MGBMIN$19.93MBUFHOU$17.98MWASPHI$17.09MARILAC$15.33MNODET$15.33MATLPIT$9.63MBALIND$9.00MCHICAR$8.58MMIALV$8.34MCLEJAC$7.51MTBCIN$6.87MNYJTEN$4.66M
Bar: each team’s share of the moneyTick: the odds
Most traded game
$59.91M
Broncos at Chiefs
The public’s record
12–4
Games the money’s pick won
Biggest trade
$4.85M
Chiefs at 100¢ on Polymarket
Player props
$36.20M
Most on Kenneth Walker III, $1.83M
The public’s picks

Was the money right? Every Week 1 game

The bar splits each game’s money by the team buyers took; the black tick marks the odds. A bar that runs past the tick means traders like that team more than the market does.

Sunday Night Football
PatriotsNew England
at
SeahawksSeattle
Share of the money before kickoff$50.32M
Odds now: Patriots 37%, Seahawks 63%
Public won55% of the money was on the Seahawks (63% at open); they won 13–10.
Where the money went
Winner
$29.36M
Spread
$7.54M
Total
$3.76M
Quarters
$1.25M
Props
$4.89M
Other
$3.52M
Kalshi
$47.09M94%
Poly US
$741K1%
Polymarket
$2.49M5%
257 whale trades · $6.09M
Final 10–13SEA −3.5 · O/U 30.5
Thursday Night Football
49ersSan Francisco
at
RamsLos Angeles
Share of the money before kickoff$45.28M
Odds now: 49ers 57%, Rams 43%
Public lost55% of the money was on the Rams (43% at open); they lost 7–27.
Where the money went
Winner
$23.35M
Spread
$7.78M
Total
$3.90M
Quarters
$793K
Props
$5.78M
Other
$3.68M
Kalshi
$40.96M90%
Poly US
$1.25M3%
Polymarket
$3.07M7%
SF +44 pts since open176 whale trades · $4.77M
Final 27–7SF −14.5 · O/U 30.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FalconsAtlanta
at
SteelersPittsburgh
Share of the money before kickoff$9.63M
Odds now: Falcons 18%, Steelers 82%
Public won79% of the money was on the Steelers (82% at open); they won 20–13.
Where the money went
Winner
$5.31M
Spread
$1.76M
Total
$553K
Quarters
$204K
Props
$981K
Other
$817K
Kalshi
$8.51M88%
Poly US
$177K2%
Polymarket
$945K10%
PIT +33 pts since open35 whale trades · $661K
Final 13–20PIT −6.5 · O/U 32.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
RavensBaltimore
at
ColtsIndianapolis
Share of the money before kickoff$9.00M
Odds now: Ravens 77%, Colts 23%
Public won67% of the money was on the Ravens (77% at open); they won 41–23.
Where the money went
Winner
$4.56M
Spread
$1.71M
Total
$502K
Quarters
$126K
Props
$1.05M
Other
$1.06M
Kalshi
$7.26M81%
Poly US
$968K11%
Polymarket
$774K9%
BAL +29 pts since open33 whale trades · $757K
Final 41–23BAL −2.5 · O/U 30.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
BillsBuffalo
at
TexansHouston
Share of the money before kickoff$17.98M
Odds now: Bills 57%, Texans 43%
Public won50% of the money was on the Bills (57% at open); they won 36–31.
Where the money went
Winner
$11.70M
Spread
$2.72M
Total
$1.08M
Quarters
$232K
Props
$1.29M
Other
$954K
Kalshi
$15.59M87%
Poly US
$294K2%
Polymarket
$2.09M12%
BUF +12 pts since open65 whale trades · $1.62M
Final 36–31BUF −2.5 · O/U 68.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
BearsChicago
at
PanthersCarolina
Share of the money before kickoff$8.58M
Odds now: Bears 78%, Panthers 22%
Public won79% of the money was on the Bears (78% at open); they won 59–37.
Where the money went
Winner
$4.09M
Spread
$1.67M
Total
$614K
Quarters
$163K
Props
$1.43M
Other
$618K
Kalshi
$7.64M89%
Poly US
$390K5%
Polymarket
$556K6%
CHI +38 pts since open20 whale trades · $362K
Final 59–37CHI −14.5 · O/U 67.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
BrownsCleveland
at
JaguarsJacksonville
Share of the money before kickoff$7.51M
Odds now: Browns 7%, Jaguars 93%
Public won96% of the money was on the Jaguars (94% at open); they won 34–10.
Where the money went
Winner
$4.78M
Spread
$877K
Total
$448K
Quarters
$134K
Props
$632K
Other
$640K
Kalshi
$7.21M96%
Polymarket
$300K4%
JAC +16 pts since open74 whale trades · $2.98M
Final 10–34JAC −33.5 · O/U 40.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
SaintsNew Orleans
at
LionsDetroit
Share of the money before kickoff$15.33M
Odds now: Saints 35%, Lions 65%
Public won78% of the money was on the Lions (65% at open); they won 31–30.
Where the money went
Winner
$10.57M
Spread
$1.99M
Total
$964K
Quarters
$155K
Props
$1.02M
Other
$622K
Kalshi
$14.00M91%
Poly US
$163K1%
Polymarket
$1.17M8%
NO +20 pts since open118 whale trades · $2.36M
Final 30–31DET −6.5 · O/U 53.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
JetsNew York
at
TitansTennessee
Share of the money before kickoff$4.66M
Odds now: Jets 76%, Titans 24%
Public won71% of the money was on the Jets (76% at open); they won 23–10.
Where the money went
Winner
$2.18M
Spread
$625K
Total
$725K
Quarters
$83.4K
Props
$726K
Other
$314K
Kalshi
$4.05M87%
Poly US
$308K7%
Polymarket
$299K6%
NYJ +54 pts since open27 whale trades · $573K
Final 23–10NYJ −9.5 · O/U 29.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
BuccaneersTampa Bay
at
BengalsCincinnati
Share of the money before kickoff$6.87M
Odds now: Buccaneers 20%, Bengals 80%
Public won50% of the money was on the Bengals (80% at open); they won 33–27.
Where the money went
Winner
$3.51M
Spread
$1.13M
Total
$629K
Quarters
$81.6K
Props
$1.02M
Other
$493K
Kalshi
$6.34M92%
Poly US
$142K2%
Polymarket
$381K6%
CIN +32 pts since open37 whale trades · $663K
Final 27–33CIN −4.5 · O/U 50.5
Sunday, late afternoon
CardinalsArizona
at
ChargersLos Angeles
Share of the money before kickoff$15.33M
Odds now: Cardinals 52%, Chargers 48%
Public lost82% of the money was on the Chargers (48% at open); they lost 14–26.
Where the money went
Winner
$9.71M
Spread
$2.15M
Total
$916K
Quarters
$283K
Props
$1.14M
Other
$1.14M
Kalshi
$14.45M94%
Poly US
$145K1%
Polymarket
$738K5%
ARI +66 pts since open70 whale trades · $1.26M
Final 26–14ARI −10.5 · O/U 46.5
Sunday, late afternoon
PackersGreen Bay
at
VikingsMinnesota
Share of the money before kickoff$19.93M
Odds now: Packers 59%, Vikings 41%
Public won51% of the money was on the Vikings (41% at open); they won 39–22.
Where the money went
Winner
$13.00M
Spread
$2.50M
Total
$1.71M
Quarters
$264K
Props
$1.31M
Other
$1.14M
Kalshi
$18.15M91%
Poly US
$432K2%
Polymarket
$1.35M7%
GB +25 pts since open81 whale trades · $1.92M
Final 22–39GB −16.5 · O/U 46.5
Sunday, late afternoon
DolphinsMiami
at
RaidersLas Vegas
Share of the money before kickoff$8.34M
Odds now: Dolphins 21%, Raiders 79%
Public won65% of the money was on the Raiders (79% at open); they won 27–13.
Where the money went
Winner
$4.34M
Spread
$1.39M
Total
$918K
Quarters
$161K
Props
$1.01M
Other
$523K
Kalshi
$7.39M89%
Poly US
$141K2%
Polymarket
$814K10%
LV +33 pts since open35 whale trades · $816K
Final 13–27LV −16.5 · O/U 34.5
Sunday, late afternoon
CommandersWashington
at
EaglesPhiladelphia
Share of the money before kickoff$17.09M
Odds now: Commanders 25%, Eagles 75%
Public won66% of the money was on the Eagles (75% at open); they won 24–22.
Where the money went
Winner
$11.54M
Spread
$2.44M
Total
$937K
Quarters
$214K
Props
$1.15M
Other
$812K
Kalshi
$15.51M91%
Poly US
$205K1%
Polymarket
$1.37M8%
PHI +16 pts since open111 whale trades · $4.47M
Final 22–24PHI −2.5 · O/U 38.5
Sunday Night Football
CowboysDallas
at
GiantsNew York
Share of the money before kickoff$57.41M
Odds now: Cowboys 25%, Giants 75%
Public lost77% of the money was on the Cowboys (25% at open); they lost 20–28.
Where the money went
Winner
$32.73M
Spread
$9.01M
Total
$4.17M
Quarters
$1.34M
Props
$5.39M
Other
$4.78M
Kalshi
$49.75M87%
Poly US
$4.45M8%
Polymarket
$3.21M6%
NYG +45 pts since open274 whale trades · $6.17M
Final 20–28NYG −3.5 · O/U 27.5
Monday Night Football
BroncosDenver
at
ChiefsKansas City
Share of the money before kickoff$59.91M
Odds now: Broncos 27%, Chiefs 73%
Public lost59% of the money was on the Broncos (27% at open); they lost 10–31.
Where the money went
Winner
$33.43M
Spread
$6.79M
Total
$6.03M
Quarters
$1.57M
Props
$7.39M
Other
$4.70M
Kalshi
$46.97M78%
Poly US
$2.07M3%
Polymarket
$10.88M18%
KC +33 pts since open243 whale trades · $14.05M
Final 10–31KC −20.5 · O/U 40.5
By exchange

Where Week 1 was traded

Kalshi handled 88% of the money traded on Week 1. The average trade was biggest on Polymarket ($361) and smallest on Kalshi ($57). Player props are 12% of Kalshi’s money.

Kalshi

88% of the week
$310.86M
Trades
5,474,202
Avg. trade
$57
Last 24h
$44.35M
Winner
$173.56M56%
Spread
$43.89M14%
Total
$24.36M8%
Quarters & halves
$7.05M2%
Player props
$36.20M12%
Other
$25.80M8%
Most tradedCowboys at Giants$49.75M

Polymarket US

3% of the week
$11.87M
Trades
149,160
Avg. trade
$80
Last 24h
$1.83M
Winner
$8.71M73%
Spread
$2.23M19%
Total
$928K8%
Most tradedCowboys at Giants$4.45M

Polymarket

9% of the week
$30.44M
Trades
84,348
Avg. trade
$361
Last 24h
$10.34M
Winner
$21.89M72%
Spread
$5.97M20%
Total
$2.58M8%
Most tradedBroncos at Chiefs$10.88M
Whale watch

Biggest Week 1 trades

The largest single trades on a winner.

  1. Chiefs at 100¢Broncos at Chiefs · Polymarket · Mon 11:22 PM
    $4.85Mpays $4.85M
  2. Chiefs at 55¢Broncos at Chiefs · Polymarket · Mon 5:02 PM
    $848Kpays $1.54M
  3. Eagles at 99¢Commanders at Eagles · Kalshi · Sun 7:31 PM
    $770Kpays $778K
  4. Chiefs at 56¢Broncos at Chiefs · Polymarket · Mon 5:02 PM
    $672Kpays $1.20M
  5. Eagles at 99¢Commanders at Eagles · Kalshi · Sun 7:31 PM
    $650Kpays $657K
  6. Chiefs at 55¢Broncos at Chiefs · Polymarket · Mon 5:02 PM
    $553Kpays $1.00M
On the move

Biggest line moves

Kalshi’s price, since the market opened.

  1. Arizona CardinalsCardinals at Chargers · 19% → 52%
    +66points
  2. New York JetsJets at Titans · 44% → 76%
    +54points
  3. New York GiantsCowboys at Giants · 44% → 75%
    +45points
  4. San Francisco 49ers49ers at Rams · 36% → 57%
    +44points
  5. Chicago BearsBears at Panthers · 57% → 78%
    +38points
  6. Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at Steelers · 59% → 82%
    +33points
Player props

Most-traded players

Dollars traded across each player’s props.

  1. Kenneth Walker III33 markets · Broncos at Chiefs
    $1.83Mtraded
  2. Christian McCaffrey32 markets · 49ers at Rams
    $1.28Mtraded
  3. Patrick Mahomes20 markets · Broncos at Chiefs
    $926Ktraded
  4. Jadarian Price22 markets · Patriots at Seahawks
    $827Ktraded
  5. Cam Skattebo26 markets · Cowboys at Giants
    $778Ktraded
Money vs. the odds

Where the public disagreed with the market

Each dot is a game’s public pick: across, its chance to win; up, its share of the money. Above the dashed line, traders liked it more than the odds did. Bigger dots, more money.

UNDERDOGS THE PUBLIC IS BACKING20%30%40%50%60%70%80%50%60%70%80%90%100%Money matches the oddsChance to winShare of the moneyDENDALSEALARMINBUFPHILACDETPITBALCHILVJACCINNYJ
Public on the underdogPiling on the favoriteEverything else
The public’s boldest call
The Cowboys

77% of the money at 25% odds against the Giants.

Underdog getting action
The Buccaneers

50% of the money at 20% odds against the Bengals.

In line with the market
6 games

the Seahawks, the Steelers, the Bills, the Bears, the Jaguars, the Jets: the money and the odds agree.

Every figure

Week 1 money, game by game

Every game’s money, by market and by exchange, and the side buyers took. Tap a column to sort.

NFL Week 1 prediction market money by game and exchange
MoneyBy exchangeThe public
Money vs. oddsWhales
Broncos at ChiefsFinal 10–31$59.91M$33.43M$7.39M896,689$46.97M78%$2.07M3%$10.88M18%
DEN 59%41% KC
24342%+32
Cowboys at GiantsFinal 20–28$57.41M$32.73M$5.39M832,859$49.75M87%$4.45M8%$3.21M6%
DAL 77%23% NYG
27419%+52
Patriots at SeahawksFinal 10–13$50.32M$29.36M$4.89M838,494$47.09M94%$741K1%$2.49M5%
NE 45%55% SEA
25721%−8
49ers at RamsFinal 27–7$45.28M$23.35M$5.78M799,182$40.96M90%$1.25M3%$3.07M7%
SF 45%55% LAR
17620%+13
Packers at VikingsFinal 22–39$19.93M$13.00M$1.31M359,865$18.15M91%$432K2%$1.35M7%
GB 49%51% MIN
8115%+10
Bills at TexansFinal 36–31$17.98M$11.70M$1.29M333,521$15.59M87%$294K2%$2.09M12%
BUF 50%50% HOU
6514%−6
Commanders at EaglesFinal 22–24$17.09M$11.54M$1.15M237,708$15.51M91%$205K1%$1.37M8%
WAS 34%66% PHI
11139%−10
Cardinals at ChargersFinal 26–14$15.33M$9.71M$1.14M249,825$14.45M94%$145K1%$738K5%
ARI 18%82% LAC
7013%+33
Saints at LionsFinal 30–31$15.33M$10.57M$1.02M213,600$14.00M91%$163K1%$1.17M8%
NO 22%78% DET
11822%+13
Falcons at SteelersFinal 13–20$9.63M$5.31M$981K174,597$8.51M88%$177K2%$945K10%
ATL 21%79% PIT
3512%−3
Ravens at ColtsFinal 41–23$9.00M$4.56M$1.05M140,798$7.26M81%$968K11%$774K9%
BAL 67%33% IND
3317%−10
Bears at PanthersFinal 59–37$8.58M$4.09M$1.43M181,117$7.64M89%$390K5%$556K6%
CHI 79%21% CAR
209%+1
Dolphins at RaidersFinal 13–27$8.34M$4.34M$1.01M157,671$7.39M89%$141K2%$814K10%
MIA 35%65% LV
3519%−14
Browns at JaguarsFinal 10–34$7.51M$4.78M$632K93,220$7.21M96%–$300K4%
CLE 4%96% JAC
7462%+3
Buccaneers at BengalsFinal 27–33$6.87M$3.51M$1.02M117,026$6.34M92%$142K2%$381K6%
TB 50%50% CIN
3719%−29
Jets at TitansFinal 23–10$4.66M$2.18M$726K81,538$4.05M87%$308K7%$299K6%
NYJ 71%29% TEN
2726%−6
Week 1$353.17M$204.17M$36.20M5,707,710$310.86M88%$11.87M3%$30.44M9%

Money: every market on each game (winner, spread, total, quarters and player props), price × contracts as each exchange reports its trades. Winner and Props: those markets alone. Whales: winner trades of $10,000 or more, and their share of the winner money. Exchanges: Kalshi, Polymarket US (Polymarket’s US exchange) and Polymarket (its international exchange). Sides: Kalshi and Polymarket US buyers, by the team they bought (Polymarket doesn’t publish its buyer’s side). Odds: the average of Kalshi’s and Polymarket US’s midpoints. Gap: the public pick’s share of the money minus its chance. Source: AllTop via DeFi Rate, as of Oct 5, 8:05 PM ET.

Press kit

Week 1 in numbers

Ready to quote. Each line carries its time; copy one and cite DeFi Rate.

  • $353.17M has been traded on NFL Week 1 games on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket since the markets opened, $204.17M of it on the winners, across 5,707,710 trades (as of Oct 5, 8:05 PM ET).
  • Broncos at Chiefs has drawn the most money of any Week 1 game: $59.91M.
  • In 5 Week 1 games, most prediction market money is on the underdog, led by the Cowboys (77% of the money at 25% odds).
  • Kalshi accounts for 88% of the money traded on Week 1 games; Polymarket US for 3%.
  • The biggest single Week 1 trade: $4.85M on the Chiefs at 100 cents on Polymarket.
  • The team with most of the prediction market money won 12 of 16 finished Week 1 games.
  • $36.20M has been traded on Week 1 player props; Kenneth Walker III draws the most, $1.83M across 33 markets.
Cite

Use these numbers

DeFi Rate, “NFL Week 1 Volume at Prediction Markets,” defirate.com/odds/nfl/week-1/, data as of Oct 5, 8:05 PM ET.
Money
What buyers paid for contracts. A contract pays $1 if it comes true.
Public pick
The team Kalshi and Polymarket US buyers put more dollars on, before kickoff.
Odds
The market’s chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask, averaged across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
Updated
Every five minutes, from every trade.
Questions

NFL Week 1 money, answered

Which NFL Week 1 game has the most money traded on it?

Broncos at Chiefs, with $59.91M traded on the winner across Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.

How much has been traded on NFL Week 1?

$353.17M on the week's games since the markets opened ($204.17M on the winners), in 5,707,710 trades, $56.52M of it in the last 24 hours.

How did the public's Week 1 picks do?

The team with most of the money won 12 of 16 finished games.

How much has been traded on NFL Week 1 player props?

$36.20M since the markets opened. Kenneth Walker III draws the most prop money, $1.83M across 33 markets.

What was the biggest Week 1 trade?

$4.85M on the Chiefs at 100 cents on Polymarket.

Where do these numbers come from?

Every trade on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket, collected by AllTop and counted by DeFi Rate. Money is what buyers paid; the side is the team they bought.

NFL Week 1 · Kalshi

Week 1 results

Tap a game for its full odds, spread and total.

NFL Week 1 games on Kalshi, observed between Sep 9, 11:32 PM ET and Sep 24, 2:03 PM ET
GameResultAwayHomeSources
Patriots at Seahawks FinalWed, Sep 9Seahawks won 13–10NE10SEA13Game →Game →
49ers at Rams FinalThu, Sep 1049ers won 27–7SF27LAR7Game →Game →
Falcons at Steelers FinalSun, Sep 13Steelers won 20–13ATL13PIT20Game →Game →
Ravens at Colts FinalSun, Sep 13Ravens won 41–23BAL41IND23Game →Game →
Bills at Texans FinalSun, Sep 13Bills won 36–31BUF36HOU31Game →Game →
Bears at Panthers FinalSun, Sep 13Bears won 59–37CHI59CAR37Game →Game →
Browns at Jaguars FinalSun, Sep 13Jaguars won 34–10CLE10JAC34Game →Game →
Saints at Lions FinalSun, Sep 13Lions won 31–30NO30DET31Game →Game →
Jets at Titans FinalSun, Sep 13Jets won 23–10NYJ23TEN10Game →Game →
Buccaneers at Bengals FinalSun, Sep 13Bengals won 33–27TB27CIN33Game →Game →
Cardinals at Chargers FinalSun, Sep 13Cardinals won 26–14ARI26LAC14Game →Game →
Packers at Vikings FinalSun, Sep 13Vikings won 39–22GB22MIN39Game →Game →
Dolphins at Raiders FinalSun, Sep 13Raiders won 27–13MIA13LV27Game →Game →
Commanders at Eagles FinalSun, Sep 13Eagles won 24–22WAS22PHI24Game →Game →
Cowboys at Giants FinalSun, Sep 13Giants won 28–20DAL20NYG28Game →Game →
Broncos at Chiefs FinalMon, Sep 14Chiefs won 31–10DEN10KC31Game →Game →

16 final Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Sep 9, 11:32 PM ET and Sep 24, 2:03 PM ET.

Where prediction market money is going on NFL Week 1: the dollars traded on every game, which team the buyers are taking, the biggest single trades and the most-traded player props, across Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket. For each game’s odds, spread and total, see NFL Week 1 Odds.

Week 1 results

See every game, the Super Bowl and MVP races on the NFL odds page, and print the pick'em sheet.

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Source: Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket / Polymarket US / ProphetX / Rothera / Underdog Exchange via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 5, 7:30 PM ET.