Cowboys vs. Texans Week 4 Odds & PredictionsThe Texans are a 58% favorite at home against the Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans, Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. Prediction markets give the Texans a 58% chance to win (−139) and the Cowboys 41% (+141). Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket agree within a point. Kalshi's lines make it Texans −2.5, with 48.5 total points. The Texans are up 4 points this week on Kalshi. $595K has traded on the game in the last 24 hours.
About 3 in 5 (−139)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $172 if correct, before fees.
About 2 in 5 (+141)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $240 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
Cowboys vs. Texans moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston TexansHome · −139 | 58% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $172 | Kalshi58¢Lowest ask | Polymarket US58.8¢ | Polymarket59¢ | |
| Dallas CowboysAway · +141 | 41% $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $240 | Kalshi42¢ | Polymarket US41.5¢Lowest ask | Polymarket42¢ |
Best prices to buy: Houston at 58¢ on Kalshi; Dallas at 41.5¢ on Polymarket US. Buying both costs 99.5¢ and pays $1 whichever team wins: 0.50¢ locked in, before fees. Traded in the past 24 hours: $527K on Kalshi, $55K on Polymarket US and $14K on Polymarket.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 4, 9:59 AM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Houston gained 4 points, to 58%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 22 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Cowboys vs. Texans spread and over/under
Kalshi prices a ladder of margins and totals. The highlighted row is closest to a coin flip.
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2+ pts | 56% | −125 |
| 3+ pts | 54% | −115 |
| 4+ pts | 45% | +125 |
| 5+ pts | 41% | +147 |
| 6+ pts | 39% | +160 |
All 25 spread lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys 2+ pts | 40% | +153 |
| Cowboys 3+ pts | 37% | +174 |
| Cowboys 4+ pts | 29% | +251 |
| Cowboys 5+ pts | 27% | +277 |
| Cowboys 6+ pts | 26% | +292 |
| Cowboys 7+ pts | 23% | +344 |
| Cowboys 8+ pts | 19% | +441 |
| Cowboys 10+ pts | 15% | +590 |
| Cowboys 11+ pts | 13% | +700 |
| Cowboys 14+ pts | 11% | +852 |
| Cowboys 15+ pts | 8.5% | +1076 |
| Texans 2+ pts | 56% | −125 |
| Texans 3+ pts | 54% | −115 |
| Texans 4+ pts | 45% | +125 |
| Texans 5+ pts | 41% | +147 |
| Texans 6+ pts | 39% | +160 |
| Texans 7+ pts | 36% | +182 |
| Texans 8+ pts | 31% | +228 |
| Texans 10+ pts | 29% | +251 |
| Texans 11+ pts | 24% | +326 |
| Texans 14+ pts | 20% | +413 |
| Texans 15+ pts | 17% | +506 |
| Texans 17+ pts | 14% | +614 |
| Texans 18+ pts | 12% | +770 |
| Texans 21+ pts | 8.5% | +1076 |
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 46.5 | 58% | −135 |
| 47.5 | 55% | −120 |
| 48.5 | 52% | −106 |
| 49.5 | 49% | +106 |
| 50.5 | 44% | +130 |
All 19 total lines
| Fair odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| 26.5 | 96% | −2400 |
| 29.5 | 94% | −1438 |
| 32.5 | 90% | −852 |
| 35.5 | 86% | −590 |
| 38.5 | 79% | −365 |
| 41.5 | 71% | −239 |
| 44.5 | 62% | −163 |
| 45.5 | 60% | −147 |
| 46.5 | 58% | −135 |
| 47.5 | 55% | −120 |
| 48.5 | 52% | −106 |
| 49.5 | 49% | +106 |
| 50.5 | 44% | +130 |
| 53.5 | 37% | +174 |
| 56.5 | 29% | +251 |
| 59.5 | 22% | +365 |
| 62.5 | 16% | +545 |
| 65.5 | 11% | +852 |
| 68.5 | 7.5% | +1233 |
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:53 AM and 9:59 AM ET.
Cowboys vs. Texans stats
These figures cover the 2026 regular season through Week 2. The table compares each team’s record and per-game averages side by side.
| Team stat | Cowboys | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Points per game | 28.5 | 18.5 |
| Total yards per game | 288 | 377.5 |
| Passing yards per game | 227 | 313.5 |
| Rushing yards per game | 67.5 | 92 |
| First downs per game | 20.5 | 24 |
| Third-down conversion | 68.2% | 36.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate | 85.7% | 44.4% |
| Turnover differential | +1 | −2 |
| Sacks per game | 1 | 3.5 |
| Time of possession | 25:55 | 32:44 |
Stat leaders: Cowboys — passing, Dak Prescott (48/65, 454 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT); rushing, Javonte Williams (24 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD); receiving, CeeDee Lamb (13 REC, 197 YDS, 3 TD); Texans — passing, C.J. Stroud (56/93, 627 YDS, 2 TD); rushing, David Montgomery (26 CAR, 70 YDS, 2 TD); receiving, Dalton Schultz (16 REC, 175 YDS).
Source: ESPN team statistics. 2026 regular-season averages and leaders through Week 2; the section is refreshed as each week is completed.
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