Florida Prediction Markets and Sites for September 2026Six prediction market apps are available in Florida

Florida residents now have access to more than a dozen federally regulated prediction market sites covering sports, politics, economics, crypto, entertainment, and more. The Sunshine State’s unusual Florida sports betting setup — with just a single legal option in Hard Rock Bet — makes these federally-regulated trading exchanges more relevant here than almost anywhere else in the country.

Prediction markets fill the gap because they operate under a different legal framework entirely — registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as Designated Contract Markets, the same federal oversight that governs futures and swaps trading, rather than under state gambling law. That’s why Kalshi, FanDuel Predicts, OG, Robinhood, and Polymarket are all live in Florida right now, letting you trade on Miami Marlins games, Miami Dolphins futures, and far more.

Top promos available in Florida right now

Best Florida prediction market sites for MLB

Below, we compare our top five prediction apps in Florida: Polymarket, Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, and OG.com. Each platform offers a different mix of sports, politics, economics, crypto, and entertainment markets for Florida traders.

After testing every major platform and verifying availability in Florida, we’ve compiled this guide to walk you through exactly what’s available, how Florida prediction markets work, and how they compare to Hard Rock Bet.

Polymarket US

Available in Florida

Polymarket is one of the largest Florida prediction market options available today alongside Kalshi, and returned to the U.S. market in December 2025 after acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange. ICE/NYSE backed the relaunch with up to $2 billion at an $8 billion valuation. The phased rollout is for all states, including Florida. Unlike its platform for the rest of the world, Polymarket US requires personal information (for KYC) and allows the full range of standard deposit options.

Its sports markets are user-friendly, offering a simple swipe up to trade function. The fee structure is also the best in the industry at 0.10% on taker orders only and there’s no fee on deposits.

Polymarket US now offers sports, economics, and election markets following its April 2026 expansion. Political, economic, and crypto markets that define Polymarket’s global reputation are now live for American users. Sports remain the highest-volume category, with game winner, spread, and totals available — props and combos are still rolling out. When crypto markets arrive on the US app, Polymarket becomes a full Kalshi competitor across all categories.

Kalshi

Available in all 50 states

Kalshi is the dominant prediction market in the US and the most widely used prediction app in Florida. The CFTC-registered exchange has been accessible in Florida since 2021, and raised $1 billion in 2025 at an $11 billion valuation from Paradigm, Sequoia, and a16z. When Kalshi launched sports event contracts in early 2025, Florida bettors gained access to the first legal alternative to Hard Rock Bet.

With more than 4,000 active markets and over $10 billion in monthly notional trading volume, Kalshi has the deepest liquidity of any domestic platform by a significant margin. For Florida users, every major team in the state is covered: Dolphins, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Heat, Magic, Marlins, Rays, Panthers, and Inter Miami. Florida college teams are also fair game, including the Gators, Seminoles, Hurricanes, the UCF Knights, and more. Beyond sports, Kalshi offers markets on the 2026 US primaries including the Florida gubernatorial race to fill the open seat vacated by term-limited DeSantis. Kalshi has also listed hurricane track and landfall contracts in past Atlantic hurricane seasons, a category with obvious Florida relevance.

Gemini Predictions

Available in all 50 states

Gemini launched its prediction market in December 2025 after a five-year DCM licensing process and added sports contracts on January 9, 2026 — NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, and MLB. Best suited for existing Gemini crypto exchange users who want prediction markets inside a platform they already use. Liquidity is thinner than Kalshi on most markets, with no combo/parlay feature, and no sign-up bonus. For new users without an existing Gemini account, it’s best to start with Kalshi or FanDuel Predicts instead.

FanDuel

Available in Florida

FanDuel Sportsbook is locked out of Florida by the Seminole Tribe compact; FanDuel Predicts is the company’s direct response to that. It’s a standalone prediction market app, built in partnership with CME Group, and one of the few prediction markets in Florida that exists precisely because it operates under CFTC federal jurisdiction rather than state gambling law. FanDuel has stated publicly it will exit sports prediction markets in any state that legalizes conventional sports betting. In Florida, that requires a constitutional amendment and voter referendum, so this app is here for the long haul.

The app shares CME Group’s order book with DraftKings Predictions, which means markets, pricing, and liquidity are functionally identical between the two, at least for now. FanDuel has a $100 new-user offer. Trade at least $1 a day for five days to qualify; no promo code is required.

Sports event contracts are live in 18 states including Florida, with finance and economics markets available in all 50. You’ll find a solid slate of major sports leagues, professional and college-level, including games and futures markets. FanDuel Predicts also offers solid market depth on commodities like energy, metals, and economic signals, as well as financials like S&P and Nasdaq futures.

OG Predictions

Available in 49 states

Crypto.com was the first CFTC-regulated exchange to list sports event contracts, even before Kalshi’s sports expansion gained mainstream attention. OG is the standalone prediction markets app Crypto.com launched ahead of Super Bowl 60 in February 2026, and it runs on its own fully-integrated trading stack. The same CDNA infrastructure powers white-label prediction markets for Fanatics, Underdog, Trump Media’s Truth Predict, and Hollywood.com, boosting liquidity for those trading on the FanDuel app. OG also has a slick app and interface, as well as a Trade $10, Get $10 welcome bonus.

For Florida traders, OG is a top choice if you want a solid sign-up promo and deep sports markets, from NFL to CBB to F1. The player performance menu (for pro sports) rivals Kalshi, and the site also now offers same-game parlays. OG also offers a growing number of options in non-sports categories including economics, politics, financials, crypto, companies, and climate.

More Florida prediction market platforms

Underdog Predicts

Florida availability: ✓ Available

Bonus: Play $5 in entries, get $50 in bonus entries with Underdog promo code

Underdog made its biggest move yet in prediction markets this year. After launching sports event contracts through a partnership with Crypto.com’s CDNA exchange in September 2025, Underdog acquired the CFTC-registered Aristotle Exchange DCM and DCO in March 2026 — the exchange and clearinghouse entities, not PredictIt itself, which Aristotle retained. That acquisition let Underdog go live on its own native, in-house exchange in July 2026, rather than relying on a third-party partner to list and clear contracts.

In a bigger development, Underdog agreed to be acquired by IG Group for up to $1.3 billion in August 2026, a deal still pending regulatory approval and expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027. Aristotle has since filed suit against Underdog in Delaware Chancery Court over the terms of the March exchange acquisition — a dispute that appears to stem from the IG Group deal, and could complicate its closing timeline.

What I like / Strengths:

• First sports gaming operator to launch prediction market trades, and now operates its own CFTC-regulated exchange rather than depending on a third-party partner
• Sportsbook-style interface familiar to bettors — team picks, spreads, totals, and combos
• Same responsible-gaming framework as its existing DFS/sportsbook products

Points of friction:

Now under new ownership (IG Group) and in active litigation with Aristotle over the exchange acquisition — some uncertainty around near-term roadmap

DraftKings Predictions: Best for DraftKings DFS customers

Florida availability: ✓ Sports and economics available in FL

DraftKings Sportsbook has never operated in Florida due to the same Seminole Compact that has prevented a FanDuel launch. DraftKings Predictions launched in December 2025 on CME Group’s exchange, bringing prediction markets in Florida to its existing DFS user base. In June 2026, DraftKings launched DKeX, its own proprietary CFTC-regulated exchange built on the Railbird Technologies acquisition, moving off CME Group and Crypto.com entirely.

Because DraftKings now runs its own exchange rather than sharing CME’s order book, pricing and liquidity are no longer identical to FanDuel Predicts — DraftKings sets its own terms going forward.

Read more: DraftKings promo code

Market depth:

In line with its core products, DraftKings offers strong market depth in sports, including pre-set parlays (“combos”). Beyond sports, DraftKings is leaning into election markets and building out stock market, business, and economics categories.

What’s to like:

• Highest name recognition among DraftKings DFS users who’ve never had access to the sportsbook in Florida
• Owns its own exchange (DKeX), giving it more control over listings and fee economics
• Fee of $0.01 per contract is among the lowest in the industry

Drawbacks:

• Market depth lacking in categories outside of sports and elections, but will likely expand rapidly over time
• Pre-built combos only; no custom multi-leg trade construction at time of writing
• Sports footprint is narrower than Kalshi’s all-50 coverage

Robinhood: Best for existing brokerage users

Florida availability: ✓ All 50 States (sports available in FL)

Robinhood processed 8.5 billion event contracts in Q4 2025 by routing prediction market orders through Kalshi and wrapping them in a familiar brokerage interface. In January 2026, Robinhood and Susquehanna closed their acquisition of MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed exchange, with an independent exchange expected to launch later in the year.

For Florida users who already hold stocks, crypto, or retirement funds on Robinhood, accessing Florida prediction markets requires nothing more than enabling a Robinhood Derivatives account. Dolphins game outcomes and Heat championship odds live in the same app as your portfolio, with the same funds and no new KYC.

Read more: Robinhood promo code

Market depth:

Robinhood sports contracts are available in Florida; they’re only blocked in Maryland, Nevada, and New Jersey. The trading app has all the major sports and some minor ones, as well as a growing slate of props and futures like a specific player’s or coach’s next team. They also offer same-game combos with plans to add combos across trading categories. Outside of sports, Robinhood offers one of the largest trading menus, spanning economic, financial, entertainment, politics and much more.

What’s to like:

• No friction or additional setup for existing Robinhood users: same app, same funds
• Access to the full Kalshi sports and events library: sports, politics, economics, entertainment, crypto and commodities means it’s one of the deepest market menus you’ll find
• MIAXdx acquisition signals meaningful product investment ahead, and the company has teased cross-category combos and more

Drawbacks:

• At $0.02 per contract, you typically may higher fees than you would by trading directly on Kalshi. There’s no savings from routing through Robinhood, but that could change once Robinhood launches in-house event contracts.
• No order book visibility, so you can’t see bid/ask depth like you can on Kalshi
• Requires a separate Robinhood Derivatives account approval (needs margin or options enabled)
• Account lockouts during “security reviews” are a recurring complaint in Reddit threads and on Trustpilot

Coinbase Predictions: ✓ All 50 States (launched in January 2026)

Coinbase launched a predictions app in Florida on January 28, 2026 through a Kalshi partnership, making the full Kalshi market library available directly from the Coinbase app. If you already hold funds on Coinbase, there is no additional account setup, no new KYC, and no separate funding step. The same Kalshi fees apply, so there’s no cost advantage over trading on Kalshi directly. The advantage is pure convenience and accessibility for existing Coinbase users. Read our Coinbase review.

Sleeper: ✓ All 50 States

Sleeper launched prediction markets on February 6, 2026 through a Kalshi FCM partnership, integrating real-money event contracts into its 10-million-user fantasy sports app. If you run fantasy leagues on Sleeper with a group of friends, the FL prediction sites are now part of the same social experience. Sports-only for now; politics, economics, and entertainment markets planned. Fee is approximately $0.02 per contract.

Are prediction markets legal in Florida?

Yes, Florida prediction markets are legal, but with a caveat.

Every CFTC-regulated prediction market platform listed on this page is currently legal and accessible from Florida. For a full overview of available platforms, see our list of prediction market apps. No cease-and-desist order has been issued to any prediction market operator in the state. The CFTC under Chairman Michael Selig has actively backed prediction market operators, withdrawn the proposed rule that would have banned sports contracts, and indicated the federal government would challenge state enforcement actions. But more than a dozen

Federal courts in Nevada, New Jersey, California, and Wisconsin have ruled in favor of prediction market operators on federal preemption grounds.

Florida is different from every other state in the conversation, though, for one specific reason: the Seminole Compact.

The Seminole Tribe Compact

The Seminole Tribe of Florida signed a 30-year gaming compact with the state in 2021. The compact grants the tribe exclusive rights to offer online sports betting in Florida, a provision upheld through years of litigation and eventually sealed when the Supreme Court declined to hear the final challenge in June 2024. The deal runs until 2051. The compact is structured around a hub-and-spoke model, where bets placed anywhere in Florida are legally deemed to occur on tribal lands. The deal, which runs through 2051, was expected to generate $6 billion through 2030 alone.

That revenue arrangement is why Florida’s scrutiny of prediction markets is different in kind from a state like Texas, where the absence of any legal sports betting market makes prediction markets the sole fully-regulated option. In Florida, the Seminole Tribe’s Hard Rock Bet app holds a legally exclusive franchise on sports betting that is worth hundreds of millions of dollars annually. Prediction market operators are trading on the same sorts of sports outcomes the compact was designed to monetize exclusively.

Governor DeSantis raises the question

The tension became explicit in February 2026 when Governor Ron DeSantis appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box and named Kalshi directly. “In Florida, we kind of have a unique relationship with the Seminole Tribe of Florida,” he said. “They also have the exclusive rights over sports betting. And so the question is: is something like Kalshi clashing with the laws of the state of Florida? Or is it separate? It’s more of a prediction market. So we’re kind of trying to get our mind around that.”

DeSantis negotiated and signed the Seminole compact. His public deliberation differs from the silence of Texas AG Ken Paxton, who declined to join the multi-state coalition opposing prediction markets and has made no public statements on the subject.

Kalshi’s CEO Tarek Mansour has made the same argument in Florida that has prevailed in some federal courts so far: “If we are gambling, then I think you’re basically calling the entire financial market gambling.” More than ten cases are ongoing around state challenges over the legality of sports event contracts and the question of whether they fall under state or federal jurisdiction.

AG Uthmeier’s 2026 Crackdown Agenda

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, appointed by DeSantis in February 2025, has made cracking down on “illegal and legally ambiguous gambling” a cornerstone of his 2026 agenda, framing it around protecting the Seminole Compact’s revenue projections for the state. His office has already issued subpoenas to DFS and sweepstakes platforms, and he explicitly named prediction markets alongside offshore sites and sweepstakes casinos as products that “complicate enforcement and raise questions about compliance with state law and the 2021 Gaming Compact.”

Uthmeier is also backing HB 189, legislation advancing through the Florida House that would dramatically expand criminal penalties and regulatory enforcement authority across gambling categories that could include prediction markets. As of today, no enforcement action has been taken against any prediction market operator in Florida. The platforms are open, accessible, and accepting Florida deposits, in a manner which is deemed legal for now.

How Florida compares to other states

Florida sits in a middle category that has not yet explicitly come out against prediction markets, but has made it clear they are on the radar. Florida differs from states that have issued cease-and-desist letters and/or filed court cases demanding platforms like Kalshi to exit their jurisdictions. States like Nevada, Massachusetts, Maryland, Ohio, Connecticut and Arizona have taken aggressive actions against the growing sports trading products. But it’s also not Texas, where the governor and attorney general have been entirely silent on the matter.

The legal trajectory will be resolved at the federal appellate level. The Third Circuit (New Jersey), Fourth Circuit (Maryland), and Ninth Circuit (Nevada) are all handling active prediction market appeals, and the outcomes in those courts will likely apply nationally regardless of what any state legislature or AG does unilaterally. The current CFTC has been explicit about backing prediction market operators, and Chairman Selig has stated that states challenging these platforms will see pushback from the federal government.

For traders, the immediate risk is low. But Florida’s unique Seminole Compact dynamic makes it the only legal sports betting state where FL prediction markets remain fully operational.

How to use Kalshi or FanDuel Predicts in Florida

Setting up an account on any Florida prediction market app takes under 10 minutes for most users. Here’s what to expect:

1. Pick your prediction app

For most people in Florida, Kalshi is the right starting point as it has the widest market selection, deepest liquidity, and the fastest onboarding experience once identity verification clears. If you already use FanDuel for DFS, FanDuel Predicts is the path of least resistance. If your investment accounts are already on Robinhood (or Coinbase or Gemini), prediction markets are already available in the app once you enable access to them.

2. Complete identity verification

All CFTC-regulated platforms require Know Your Customer (KYC) verification. You’ll need a Florida driver’s license or passport, your Social Security number, current address, phone number, and email. Most users are approved quickly, but if there are any discrepancies or hiccups, note that manual review can take up to 10 days or longer. If you’re trying to be ready for a specific event, it’s best to not wait until the day before.

3. Fund your account

ACH bank transfer is free on most platforms and the most cost-effective option. It typically takes 1–3 business days to fully clear, but many platforms offer instant deposit access against the incoming transfer. Debit cards provide immediate funding but come with fees on some platforms, like Kalshi which charges 2% on debit deposits.

4. Trade something you already follow

The yes or no contract structure is simpler than a sportsbook parlay card once you’ve seen it a few times. Use our prediction market calculators to convert between contract pricing and traditional American odds if that’s what you’re used to. Most platforms also allow you to adjust the odds view in Settings. Start with a market you have a real opinion about, whether it’s a team or political race you follow closely, and make a few small trades before sizing up. The learning curve is real but shorter than most people expect.

Prediction markets vs. Hard Rock Bet

If you’re a sports bettor or aspiring events trader, it’s important to know the key differences between Florida sports betting through Hard Rock Bet and the growing list of prediction markets in Florida.

Who sets the price: Hard Rock Bet sets its own lines with a house margin built in, typically around 10% or more on most markets. On a prediction market exchange like Kalshi, prices are set by other traders through supply and demand. There’s no built-in house margin; the exchange just charges minimal fees per contract that vary based on contract prices on some platforms. But the main point is that you’re trading against other participants (or market makers), not against the operator itself.

How contracts work: A Hard Rock Bet wager locks in a fixed payout based on the line at time of placement. Kalshi’s yes or no contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, where the price represents the market’s implied probability. A Dolphins contract at $0.62 implies the market gives Miami roughly a 62% chance of winning that game. A $0.62 contract pays $1 if the prediction is correct and $0 if it isn’t. Most apps now let you view contracts in American odds format which you can adjust in Settings. For many Florida bettors, the simpler Yes/No structure is actually preferable as it can be easier to analyze and track odds as they move in real-time based on trading activity.

You can exit before the final whistle: This is the most practically important difference, and it’s the one that keeps Florida traders coming back after trying both products. A bet placed at Hard Rock Bet stays locked until the event resolves. Each yes or no contract can be sold at any point before settlement at the current market price. If you bought Dolphins contracts at $0.55 in the first quarter and Miami is up 14 at halftime, you can sell at $0.74 (or whatever the current price is) and realize the gain without waiting for the final whistle. Positions are liquid the way stocks are liquid.

Market depth: Hard Rock Bet offers a full sportsbook menu, including hundreds of props on a single NFL game, player stat markets, same-game parlays, and live in-game wagering. Prediction markets are expanding into this territory but are still thinner in terms of player performance props and parlays. Kalshi and OG are the closest to matching sportsbook depth, particularly on player prop markets. FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions are more limited in these offerings, at least for now.

Age requirements: Hard Rock Bet requires players to be 21 or older. CFTC-regulated prediction market platforms require users to be 18 or older. This is a clearly a practical difference for Florida residents who are 18–20.

Tax treatment: Hard Rock Bet winnings are taxed as gambling income at the federal level. Prediction market contracts are classified as commodity derivatives, which means profits receive capital gains treatment. Losses can offset gains and up to $3,000 in net losses can be deducted against ordinary income annually without itemizing. Florida has no state income tax, so both Hard Rock Bet winnings and prediction market gains are subject only to federal rates. But the federal treatment is meaningfully better for prediction market traders. A provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill will also cap gambling loss deductions at 90% of reported winnings, tightening the tax math on Hard Rock Bet even further. Always consult a tax professional for matters relating to your best options for your specific situation.

Legal prediction market contracts in Florida

Sports prediction markets

Sports are the highest-volume category by a wide margin. Florida residents can buy and sell contracts on every major league and local team, from the Dolphins and Heat to the Gators and Hurricanes. Here’s a look at the main sports you’ll find, but most platforms also cover more niche sports and leagues as well.

NFL: Complete Florida coverage

All three Florida franchises, the Miami Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Jacksonville Jaguars, are listed across every major Florida prediction site. For each, you can trade game winners, spreads, totals, and futures. Kalshi and OG extend into player props (passing yards, touchdown scorers, receptions, rushing performance) and combo trades that function like same-game parlays through Kalshi’s RFQ system. Super Bowl trading remains the single highest-volume event for prediction markets.

NBA and March Madness

The Miami Heat and Orlando Magic are fully covered on all major FL prediction sites. For college basketball fans, Kalshi has game-by-game markets with spreads, totals, and player props running throughout March Madness each year.

The practical advantage of trading March Madness on a prediction market versus a traditional FL sportsbook is live position management. Prices update in real time as games unfold. You can enter a first-half position on the Gators, watch it, and sell at halftime if the market has moved your way (or cut a loss before the second half if things are going wrong). You won’t find that kind of live game flexibility at any FL online sportsbook.

MLB and NHL

The Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, and Florida Panthers are all listed on major platforms with game markets, division and playoff futures, and award markets. These tend to have lower liquidity than NFL and NBA contracts but are available throughout the respective seasons.

Florida college sports

All four major Florida college programs are covered across the top platforms. You can buy and sell contracts on the Florida Gators (Gainesville), Florida State Seminoles (Tallahassee), Miami Hurricanes (Coral Gables), UCF Knights (Orlando) and many more. Moneylines, spreads, and totals are available for individual games. Conference and national championship futures run seasonally. March Madness game-by-game markets are also available.

Political and election markets

Betting on elections is legal in Florida through CFTC-regulated prediction markets. Florida has an unusually rich set of political markets in 2026. You can buy and sell contracts on the Florida gubernatorial race, 2026 congressional districts, and national races, all of which are live on Kalshi and many other prediction apps right now.

The 2026 Florida gubernatorial race is the most significant open-seat state race in the country this cycle. DeSantis is term-limited and cannot run for re-election. The field on both sides is wide open. Kalshi has the governor’s race listed with Byron Donalds and Casey DeSantis leading the Republican field, making it one of the more liquid state-level political markets in the country. The Florida Senate special election to fill Marco Rubio’s vacated seat — Ashley Moody vs. a Democratic field that includes Alexander Vindman and Jennifer Jenkins — is also actively trading.

2026 congressional races in Florida’s competitive districts will generate active markets as the cycle progresses. Florida has produced several highly contested swing districts in recent cycles, and Kalshi has historically listed down-ballot races with meaningful liquidity as Election Day approaches.

For comprehensive Florida political market coverage, see our political prediction markets guide.

Economic indicator markets

Federal Reserve rate decisions, CPI prints, unemployment data, and GDP figures are among the economic indicator contracts available on Kalshi, Robinhood, FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions. These tend to attract more sophisticated traders and offer genuine hedging utility for anyone with interest rate or economic exposure.

One category with special relevance to Florida is weather. Kalshi has listed hurricane track and landfall probability contracts during Atlantic hurricane seasons, providing a unique way to hedge real-world risk.

Entertainment and Culture

Award show outcomes, reality television results, box office performance, and mention markets (predicting what specific public figures will say at specific events) are all tradeable contracts on Kalshi, Robinhood, and Polymarket, giving Florida users a way to buy and sell on cultural moments as they unfold. These markets carry lower liquidity than sports or politics but can be compelling around specific cultural moments.

See our culture markets guide for a full breakdown of entertainment markets to trade on.

Other state markets

Know before you trade

This guide is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or tax advice. The legal landscape for Florida prediction sites is evolving, and the situation in Florida is relatively stable yet fluid. Before trading:

• Read each platform’s terms of service carefully
• Understand that you can lose your entire investment on any position
• Consult a tax professional about your specific situation as prediction market gains and losses are reported differently from gambling winnings
• Only trade with money you can afford to lose
• Understand that all trading involves speculation and risk

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available through the Florida Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-888-ADMIT-IT (236-4848) and the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-522-4700.