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Jets vs. Bears (Oct 4, 2026)Chicago is a 63% favorite at home against the Jets

New York Jets at Chicago Bears, Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. Chicago is a 63% favorite at home against the Jets, averaging Kalshi (63%), Polymarket US (62%) and Polymarket (63%).

Who wins?
63%Chicago Bears

About 3 in 5 (−168)

Prices to buy. Kalshi's quotes are stale (observed Sep 25, 3:47 PM ET); Polymarket's quotes are stale (observed Sep 25, 1:18 PM ET); they may have moved.

The upset
38%New York Jets

About 2 in 5 (+166)

Prices to buy. Kalshi's quotes are stale (observed Sep 25, 3:47 PM ET); Polymarket's quotes are stale (observed Sep 25, 1:18 PM ET); they may have moved.

NFL Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

New York Jets at Chicago Bears

Upcoming

Prices to buy each team. Kalshi's quotes are stale (observed Sep 25, 3:47 PM ET); Polymarket's quotes are stale (observed Sep 25, 1:18 PM ET); they may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.

New York Jets at Chicago Bears: moneyline on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket, observed between Sep 25, 1:18 PM and 4:06 PM ET
TeamAverageKalshiPolymarket USPolymarketSources
Chicago BearsHome · −16863%Kalshi64¢Polymarket US62.5¢PolymarketNo ask
New York JetsAway · +16638%Kalshi39¢Polymarket US38¢PolymarketNo ask

Best prices to buy: Chicago at 62.5¢ on Polymarket US; the Jets at 38¢ on Polymarket US. Buying both costs $1.005 for a $1 payout, so there's no arbitrage. Traded in the past 24 hours: $421 on Kalshi and $31 on Polymarket US.

Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; the midpoint of Polymarket US's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Sep 25, 1:18 PM and 4:06 PM ET.

Price history · Kalshi daily closeSep 22 – Sep 24
304050607037%63%
JetsBears

Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 22 to Sep 24 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.

Jets vs. Bears stats

These figures cover the 2026 regular season through Week 2. The table compares each team’s record and per-game averages side by side.

Team statJetsBears
Record1-11-1
Points per game2031
Total yards per game326424.5
Passing yards per game231230.5
Rushing yards per game109.5212.5
First downs per game2021.5
Third-down conversion32.3%51.7%
Red-zone TD rate66.7%57.1%
Turnover differential+20
Sacks per game32.5
Time of possession38:1333:22

Stat leaders: Jets — passing, Geno Smith (46/65, 462 YDS, 1 TD); rushing, Breece Hall (38 CAR, 131 YDS, 1 TD); receiving, Garrett Wilson (11 REC, 136 YDS, 1 TD); Bears — passing, Caleb Williams (36/55, 407 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT); rushing, D’Andre Swift (34 CAR, 169 YDS, 3 TD); receiving, Kalif Raymond (13 REC, 124 YDS).

Source: ESPN team statistics. 2026 regular-season averages and leaders through Week 2; the section is refreshed as each week is completed.

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