DeFi Rate midterm odds
2026 Midterm Election Odds Across Prediction Markets
Compare 45 live feeds covering control of Congress, House races, Senate races, governor contests and primary markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Gemini and OG. Use our US midterm hub to learn how and where to trade on the upcoming 2026 US elections.
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Risk Disclaimer
Odds on Senate Balance of Power
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DSD
D Senate, D House
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
59.2%
↑ +10.7%
O
61.0%
P
60.5%
U
60.0%
K
58.5%
RSD
R Senate, D House
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
29.6%
↓ -5.9%
U
32.0%
O
31.0%
P
30.5%
K
29.5%
RSR
R Senate, R House
Vol —
Spread 5.5%
Agg
8.2%
↓ -8.3%
O
12.0%
U
11.0%
K
9.8%
P
6.5%
DSR
D Senate, R House
Vol —
Spread 2.9%
Agg
1.3%
↑ +0.6%
O
4.0%
U
2.0%
P
1.3%
K
1.1%
OT
Other
Vol $34.2K
Spread —
Agg
0.2%
↓ -0.2%
P
0.2%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DSD
D Senate, D House
|
59.2%
↑ +10.7%
|
2.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
58.5%
|
Polymarket
60.5%
|
Polymarket US
60.0%
|
OG
61.0%
|
|
RSD
R Senate, D House
|
29.6%
↓ -5.9%
|
2.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
29.5%
|
Polymarket
30.5%
|
Polymarket US
32.0%
|
OG
31.0%
|
|
RSR
R Senate, R House
|
8.2%
↓ -8.3%
|
5.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
9.8%
|
Polymarket
6.5%
|
Polymarket US
11.0%
|
OG
12.0%
|
|
DSR
D Senate, R House
|
1.3%
↑ +0.6%
|
2.9%
|
—
|
Kalshi
1.1%
|
Polymarket
1.3%
|
Polymarket US
2.0%
|
OG
4.0%
|
|
OT
Other
|
0.2%
↓ -0.2%
|
—
|
$34.2K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
OG
—
|
Probability Over Time
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U.S. House Control Odds: Democratic Party at 90.4%
Control of the U.S. House is one of the central national questions of the 2026 midterms. Democratic Party currently leads at 90.4%, ahead of Republican Party at 9.8%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, Polymarket US and OG and refreshes the board as district-level expectations change.
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Risk Disclaimer
Current U.S. House Control Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DP
Democratic Party
Vol —
Spread 6.5%
Agg
90.4%
↑ +4.9%
O
94.0%
K
90.4%
U
89.9%
G
87.5%
RP
Republican Party
Vol —
Spread 3.8%
Agg
9.8%
↓ -4.7%
G
13.5%
O
13.0%
U
11.4%
K
9.8%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DP
Democratic Party
|
90.4%
↑ +4.9%
|
6.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
90.4%
|
Polymarket US
89.9%
|
Gemini
87.5%
|
OG
94.0%
|
|
RP
Republican Party
|
9.8%
↓ -4.7%
|
3.8%
|
—
|
Kalshi
9.8%
|
Polymarket US
11.4%
|
Gemini
13.5%
|
OG
13.0%
|
U.S. House Control Odds Over Time
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Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
RP
Republican Party
|
Kalshi
→
Gemini
|
Buy @ K
9.8¢
|
Sell @ G
13¢
|
+3.20%
|
+3.05%
|
Yes
|
|
|
DP
Democratic Party
|
Gemini
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ G
88¢
|
Sell @ U
89.8¢
|
+1.80%
|
+1.45%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DP
Democratic Party
|
RP
Republican Party
|
Kalshi
|
A
90.4%
|
B
9.8%
|
+80.65%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
DP
Democratic Party
|
RP
Republican Party
|
Polymarket US
|
A
89.9%
|
B
11.4%
|
+78.50%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
DP
Democratic Party
|
RP
Republican Party
|
Gemini
|
A
87.5%
|
B
13.5%
|
+74.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
U.S. Senate Control Odds: Democratic Party at 59.5%
Senate control remains a defining national question for the 2026 midterms. Democratic Party currently leads at 59.5%, ahead of Republican Party at 41.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, Polymarket US and OG as individual Senate races move.
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Risk Disclaimer
Current U.S. Senate Control Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DP
Democratic Party
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
59.5%
↑ +11.0%
O
62.0%
U
59.9%
K
59.5%
G
59.5%
RP
Republican Party
Vol —
Spread 2.6%
Agg
41.5%
↓ -9.0%
O
44.0%
G
43.5%
K
41.5%
U
41.4%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DP
Democratic Party
|
59.5%
↑ +11.0%
|
2.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
59.5%
|
Polymarket US
59.9%
|
Gemini
59.5%
|
OG
62.0%
|
|
RP
Republican Party
|
41.5%
↓ -9.0%
|
2.6%
|
—
|
Kalshi
41.5%
|
Polymarket US
41.4%
|
Gemini
43.5%
|
OG
44.0%
|
U.S. Senate Control Odds Over Time
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Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
RP
Republican Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Gemini
|
Buy @ U
41.4¢
|
Sell @ G
43¢
|
+1.60%
|
+1.43%
|
No
|
|
|
DP
Democratic Party
|
Gemini
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ G
60¢
|
Sell @ U
59.8¢
|
-0.20%
|
-0.44%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DP
Democratic Party
|
RP
Republican Party
|
Polymarket US
|
A
59.9%
|
B
41.4%
|
+18.50%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
DP
Democratic Party
|
RP
Republican Party
|
Kalshi
|
A
59.5%
|
B
41.5%
|
+18.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
DP
Democratic Party
|
RP
Republican Party
|
Gemini
|
A
59.5%
|
B
43.5%
|
+16.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Republican House Seat Count Odds After the 2026 Midterms
This national board prices the number of House seats Republicans will hold after the 2026 midterms. Below 193 is currently the leading range at 31.5%, followed by 203-207 at 14.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live Kalshi pricing across the complete seat-count distribution.
Top prediction apps to trade on the 2026 House seat count
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Risk Disclaimer
Republican House Seat Count Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
B1
Below 193
Vol $53.9K
Spread —
Agg
31.5%
↑ +9.0%
K
31.5%
22
203-207
Vol $18.6K
Spread —
Agg
14.5%
↑ +1.0%
K
14.5%
12
198-202
Vol $12.0K
Spread —
Agg
13.5%
↓ -1.0%
K
13.5%
11
193-197
Vol $9.7K
Spread —
Agg
12.5%
↑ +1.0%
K
12.5%
22
208-212
Vol $9.9K
Spread —
Agg
12.5%
— +0.0%
K
12.5%
22
213-217
Vol $8.2K
Spread —
Agg
8.2%
↓ -1.6%
K
8.2%
22
218-222
Vol $23.9K
Spread —
Agg
2.5%
↓ -5.1%
K
2.5%
22
223-227
Vol $6.3K
Spread —
Agg
2.2%
↓ -2.7%
K
2.2%
A2
Above 237
Vol $15.1K
Spread —
Agg
1.6%
↓ -1.4%
K
1.6%
22
228-232
Vol $29.0K
Spread —
Agg
1.1%
↓ -1.5%
K
1.1%
22
233-237
Vol $12.1K
Spread —
Agg
1.0%
↓ -0.8%
K
1.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
B1
Below 193
|
31.5%
↑ +9.0%
|
—
|
$53.9K
|
Kalshi
31.5%
|
|
22
203-207
|
14.5%
↑ +1.0%
|
—
|
$18.6K
|
Kalshi
14.5%
|
|
12
198-202
|
13.5%
↓ -1.0%
|
—
|
$12.0K
|
Kalshi
13.5%
|
|
11
193-197
|
12.5%
↑ +1.0%
|
—
|
$9.7K
|
Kalshi
12.5%
|
|
22
208-212
|
12.5%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$9.9K
|
Kalshi
12.5%
|
|
22
213-217
|
8.2%
↓ -1.6%
|
—
|
$8.2K
|
Kalshi
8.2%
|
|
22
218-222
|
2.5%
↓ -5.1%
|
—
|
$23.9K
|
Kalshi
2.5%
|
|
22
223-227
|
2.2%
↓ -2.7%
|
—
|
$6.3K
|
Kalshi
2.2%
|
|
A2
Above 237
|
1.6%
↓ -1.4%
|
—
|
$15.1K
|
Kalshi
1.6%
|
|
22
228-232
|
1.1%
↓ -1.5%
|
—
|
$29.0K
|
Kalshi
1.1%
|
|
22
233-237
|
1.0%
↓ -0.8%
|
—
|
$12.1K
|
Kalshi
1.0%
|
Republican House Seat Count Probabilities Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
No cross-venue pairs available for this event.
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
B1
Below 193
|
22
228-232
|
Kalshi
|
A
31.5%
|
B
1.1%
|
+30.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
B1
Below 193
|
A2
Above 237
|
Kalshi
|
A
31.5%
|
B
1.6%
|
+29.95%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
B1
Below 193
|
22
223-227
|
Kalshi
|
A
31.5%
|
B
2.2%
|
+29.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
B1
Below 193
|
22
218-222
|
Kalshi
|
A
31.5%
|
B
2.5%
|
+29.05%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
B1
Below 193
|
22
213-217
|
Kalshi
|
A
31.5%
|
B
8.2%
|
+23.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
B1
Below 193
|
11
193-197
|
Kalshi
|
A
31.5%
|
B
12.5%
|
+19.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
B1
Below 193
|
22
208-212
|
Kalshi
|
A
31.5%
|
B
12.5%
|
+19.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
B1
Below 193
|
12
198-202
|
Kalshi
|
A
31.5%
|
B
13.5%
|
+18.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
B1
Below 193
|
22
203-207
|
Kalshi
|
A
31.5%
|
B
14.5%
|
+17.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
203-207
|
22
228-232
|
Kalshi
|
A
14.5%
|
B
1.1%
|
+13.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
203-207
|
A2
Above 237
|
Kalshi
|
A
14.5%
|
B
1.6%
|
+12.95%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
12
198-202
|
22
228-232
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
1.1%
|
+12.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
203-207
|
22
223-227
|
Kalshi
|
A
14.5%
|
B
2.2%
|
+12.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
203-207
|
22
218-222
|
Kalshi
|
A
14.5%
|
B
2.5%
|
+12.05%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
12
198-202
|
A2
Above 237
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
1.6%
|
+11.95%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
11
193-197
|
22
228-232
|
Kalshi
|
A
12.5%
|
B
1.1%
|
+11.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
208-212
|
22
228-232
|
Kalshi
|
A
12.5%
|
B
1.1%
|
+11.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
12
198-202
|
22
223-227
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
2.2%
|
+11.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
12
198-202
|
22
218-222
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
2.5%
|
+11.05%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
11
193-197
|
A2
Above 237
|
Kalshi
|
A
12.5%
|
B
1.6%
|
+10.95%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
208-212
|
A2
Above 237
|
Kalshi
|
A
12.5%
|
B
1.6%
|
+10.95%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
11
193-197
|
22
223-227
|
Kalshi
|
A
12.5%
|
B
2.2%
|
+10.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
208-212
|
22
223-227
|
Kalshi
|
A
12.5%
|
B
2.2%
|
+10.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
11
193-197
|
22
218-222
|
Kalshi
|
A
12.5%
|
B
2.5%
|
+10.05%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
208-212
|
22
218-222
|
Kalshi
|
A
12.5%
|
B
2.5%
|
+10.05%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
213-217
|
22
228-232
|
Kalshi
|
A
8.2%
|
B
1.1%
|
+7.10%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
213-217
|
A2
Above 237
|
Kalshi
|
A
8.2%
|
B
1.6%
|
+6.60%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
203-207
|
22
213-217
|
Kalshi
|
A
14.5%
|
B
8.2%
|
+6.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
213-217
|
22
223-227
|
Kalshi
|
A
8.2%
|
B
2.2%
|
+5.95%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
22
213-217
|
22
218-222
|
Kalshi
|
A
8.2%
|
B
2.5%
|
+5.70%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Democratic Senate Seat Count Odds After the 2026 Midterms
This national board prices the number of Senate seats Democrats will hold after the 2026 midterms. Above 52 is currently the leading outcome at 35.5%, followed by 51 at 15.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi and OG across the full seat-count distribution.
Top prediction apps to trade on the 2026 Senate seat count
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Risk Disclaimer
Democratic Senate Seat Count Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
A5
Above 52
Vol $89.0K
Spread —
Agg
35.5%
↑ +15.0%
K
35.5%
51
51
Vol $15.8K
Spread 5.5%
Agg
15.5%
— +0.0%
O
21.0%
K
15.5%
50
50
Vol $11.4K
Spread 5.5%
Agg
13.5%
↓ -1.0%
O
19.0%
K
13.5%
52
52
Vol $41.3K
Spread 5.5%
Agg
13.5%
↑ +1.0%
O
19.0%
K
13.5%
49
49
Vol $4.4K
Spread 5.8%
Agg
9.2%
↓ -3.3%
O
15.0%
K
9.2%
48
48
Vol $11.1K
Spread 5.9%
Agg
7.1%
↓ -3.4%
O
13.0%
K
7.1%
47
47
Vol $18.3K
Spread 6.1%
Agg
4.0%
↓ -4.7%
O
10.0%
K
4.0%
B4
Below 45
Vol $26.2K
Spread 6.2%
Agg
3.9%
↓ -4.1%
O
10.0%
K
3.9%
46
46
Vol $14.5K
Spread 5.9%
Agg
2.2%
↓ -1.6%
O
8.0%
K
2.2%
45
45
Vol $11.8K
Spread 5.2%
Agg
1.8%
↑ +0.3%
O
7.0%
K
1.8%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
A5
Above 52
|
35.5%
↑ +15.0%
|
—
|
$89.0K
|
Kalshi
35.5%
|
OG
—
|
|
51
51
|
15.5%
— +0.0%
|
5.5%
|
$15.8K
|
Kalshi
15.5%
|
OG
21.0%
|
|
50
50
|
13.5%
↓ -1.0%
|
5.5%
|
$11.4K
|
Kalshi
13.5%
|
OG
19.0%
|
|
52
52
|
13.5%
↑ +1.0%
|
5.5%
|
$41.3K
|
Kalshi
13.5%
|
OG
19.0%
|
|
49
49
|
9.2%
↓ -3.3%
|
5.8%
|
$4.4K
|
Kalshi
9.2%
|
OG
15.0%
|
|
48
48
|
7.1%
↓ -3.4%
|
5.9%
|
$11.1K
|
Kalshi
7.1%
|
OG
13.0%
|
|
47
47
|
4.0%
↓ -4.7%
|
6.1%
|
$18.3K
|
Kalshi
4.0%
|
OG
10.0%
|
|
B4
Below 45
|
3.9%
↓ -4.1%
|
6.2%
|
$26.2K
|
Kalshi
3.9%
|
OG
10.0%
|
|
46
46
|
2.2%
↓ -1.6%
|
5.9%
|
$14.5K
|
Kalshi
2.2%
|
OG
8.0%
|
|
45
45
|
1.8%
↑ +0.3%
|
5.2%
|
$11.8K
|
Kalshi
1.8%
|
OG
7.0%
|
Democratic Senate Seat Count Probabilities Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
No cross-venue pairs available for this event.
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
A5
Above 52
|
45
45
|
Kalshi
|
A
35.5%
|
B
1.8%
|
+33.65%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
A5
Above 52
|
46
46
|
Kalshi
|
A
35.5%
|
B
2.2%
|
+33.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
A5
Above 52
|
B4
Below 45
|
Kalshi
|
A
35.5%
|
B
3.9%
|
+31.65%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
A5
Above 52
|
47
47
|
Kalshi
|
A
35.5%
|
B
4.0%
|
+31.55%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
A5
Above 52
|
48
48
|
Kalshi
|
A
35.5%
|
B
7.1%
|
+28.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
A5
Above 52
|
49
49
|
Kalshi
|
A
35.5%
|
B
9.2%
|
+26.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
A5
Above 52
|
50
50
|
Kalshi
|
A
35.5%
|
B
13.5%
|
+22.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
A5
Above 52
|
52
52
|
Kalshi
|
A
35.5%
|
B
13.5%
|
+22.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
A5
Above 52
|
51
51
|
Kalshi
|
A
35.5%
|
B
15.5%
|
+20.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
51
51
|
45
45
|
Kalshi
|
A
15.5%
|
B
1.8%
|
+13.65%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
51
51
|
46
46
|
Kalshi
|
A
15.5%
|
B
2.2%
|
+13.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
50
50
|
45
45
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
1.8%
|
+11.65%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
52
52
|
45
45
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
1.8%
|
+11.65%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
51
51
|
B4
Below 45
|
Kalshi
|
A
15.5%
|
B
3.9%
|
+11.65%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
51
51
|
47
47
|
Kalshi
|
A
15.5%
|
B
4.0%
|
+11.55%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
50
50
|
46
46
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
2.2%
|
+11.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
52
52
|
46
46
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
2.2%
|
+11.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
50
50
|
B4
Below 45
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
3.9%
|
+9.65%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
52
52
|
B4
Below 45
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
3.9%
|
+9.65%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
50
50
|
47
47
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
4.0%
|
+9.55%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
52
52
|
47
47
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
4.0%
|
+9.55%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
51
51
|
48
48
|
Kalshi
|
A
15.5%
|
B
7.1%
|
+8.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
49
49
|
45
45
|
Kalshi
|
A
9.2%
|
B
1.8%
|
+7.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
49
49
|
46
46
|
Kalshi
|
A
9.2%
|
B
2.2%
|
+7.05%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
50
50
|
48
48
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
7.1%
|
+6.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
52
52
|
48
48
|
Kalshi
|
A
13.5%
|
B
7.1%
|
+6.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
51
51
|
49
49
|
Kalshi
|
A
15.5%
|
B
9.2%
|
+6.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
49
49
|
B4
Below 45
|
Kalshi
|
A
9.2%
|
B
3.9%
|
+5.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
48
48
|
45
45
|
Kalshi
|
A
7.1%
|
B
1.8%
|
+5.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
49
49
|
47
47
|
Kalshi
|
A
9.2%
|
B
4.0%
|
+5.25%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Which States Will Redistrict Before the 2026 Midterms?
This board tracks which states will complete redistricting before the 2026 midterms. Ohio currently has the highest implied probability at 97.9%, followed by California at 97.8%. DeFi Rate aggregates live Kalshi pricing as litigation and mapmaking deadlines develop.
Top prediction apps to trade on 2026 redistricting
Trade $10, Get $25
T&C’s apply.
Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus
Risk Disclaimer
State Redistricting Odds Before the 2026 Midterms
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
OH
Ohio
Vol $284
Spread —
Agg
97.9%
↑ +0.4%
K
97.9%
CA
California
Vol $1.8K
Spread —
Agg
97.8%
↑ +0.2%
K
97.8%
FL
Florida
Vol $2.3K
Spread —
Agg
97.2%
↓ -0.2%
K
97.2%
TE
Texas
Vol $772
Spread —
Agg
97.1%
— +0.0%
K
97.1%
LO
Louisiana
Vol $293
Spread —
Agg
97.0%
↑ +0.8%
K
97.0%
NC
North Carolina
Vol $1.8K
Spread —
Agg
97.0%
↑ +1.9%
K
97.0%
TE
Tennessee
Vol $436
Spread —
Agg
97.0%
↑ +2.5%
K
97.0%
MI
Missouri
Vol $93.0K
Spread —
Agg
4.7%
↓ -90.8%
K
4.7%
AL
Alabama
Vol $23.3K
Spread —
Agg
4.5%
↓ -84.0%
K
4.5%
VI
Virginia
Vol $1.9K
Spread —
Agg
3.3%
↓ -0.4%
K
3.3%
MI
Mississippi
Vol $525
Spread —
Agg
3.0%
↑ +0.5%
K
3.0%
UT
Utah
Vol $11.6K
Spread —
Agg
3.0%
↓ -5.1%
K
3.0%
NY
New York
Vol $5.1K
Spread —
Agg
2.3%
↓ -0.3%
K
2.3%
KA
Kansas
Vol $278
Spread —
Agg
2.1%
↓ -1.5%
K
2.1%
SC
South Carolina
Vol $137
Spread —
Agg
1.8%
↓ -0.8%
K
1.8%
AR
Arizona
Vol $25
Spread —
Agg
1.5%
↓ -1.0%
K
1.5%
GE
Georgia
Vol $263
Spread —
Agg
1.5%
↓ -1.5%
K
1.5%
MI
Minnesota
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.5%
↓ -0.3%
K
1.5%
NE
Nebraska
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
1.5%
↓ -0.1%
K
1.5%
NJ
New Jersey
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
1.5%
↓ -1.0%
K
1.5%
IL
Illinois
Vol $3.0K
Spread —
Agg
1.4%
↓ -1.1%
K
1.4%
IN
Indiana
Vol $195
Spread —
Agg
1.4%
↓ -1.5%
K
1.4%
WI
Wisconsin
Vol $1.1K
Spread —
Agg
1.4%
↓ -4.3%
K
1.4%
MA
Maryland
Vol $495
Spread —
Agg
1.1%
↓ -1.4%
K
1.1%
WA
Washington
Vol $2.6K
Spread —
Agg
0.9%
↓ -4.1%
K
0.9%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
OH
Ohio
|
97.9%
↑ +0.4%
|
—
|
$284
|
Kalshi
97.9%
|
|
CA
California
|
97.8%
↑ +0.2%
|
—
|
$1.8K
|
Kalshi
97.8%
|
|
FL
Florida
|
97.2%
↓ -0.2%
|
—
|
$2.3K
|
Kalshi
97.2%
|
|
TE
Texas
|
97.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$772
|
Kalshi
97.1%
|
|
LO
Louisiana
|
97.0%
↑ +0.8%
|
—
|
$293
|
Kalshi
97.0%
|
|
NC
North Carolina
|
97.0%
↑ +1.9%
|
—
|
$1.8K
|
Kalshi
97.0%
|
|
TE
Tennessee
|
97.0%
↑ +2.5%
|
—
|
$436
|
Kalshi
97.0%
|
|
MI
Missouri
|
4.7%
↓ -90.8%
|
—
|
$93.0K
|
Kalshi
4.7%
|
|
AL
Alabama
|
4.5%
↓ -84.0%
|
—
|
$23.3K
|
Kalshi
4.5%
|
|
VI
Virginia
|
3.3%
↓ -0.4%
|
—
|
$1.9K
|
Kalshi
3.3%
|
|
MI
Mississippi
|
3.0%
↑ +0.5%
|
—
|
$525
|
Kalshi
3.0%
|
|
UT
Utah
|
3.0%
↓ -5.1%
|
—
|
$11.6K
|
Kalshi
3.0%
|
|
NY
New York
|
2.3%
↓ -0.3%
|
—
|
$5.1K
|
Kalshi
2.3%
|
|
KA
Kansas
|
2.1%
↓ -1.5%
|
—
|
$278
|
Kalshi
2.1%
|
|
SC
South Carolina
|
1.8%
↓ -0.8%
|
—
|
$137
|
Kalshi
1.8%
|
|
AR
Arizona
|
1.5%
↓ -1.0%
|
—
|
$25
|
Kalshi
1.5%
|
|
GE
Georgia
|
1.5%
↓ -1.5%
|
—
|
$263
|
Kalshi
1.5%
|
|
MI
Minnesota
|
1.5%
↓ -0.3%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
1.5%
|
|
NE
Nebraska
|
1.5%
↓ -0.1%
|
—
|
$1
|
Kalshi
1.5%
|
|
NJ
New Jersey
|
1.5%
↓ -1.0%
|
—
|
$2
|
Kalshi
1.5%
|
|
IL
Illinois
|
1.4%
↓ -1.1%
|
—
|
$3.0K
|
Kalshi
1.4%
|
|
IN
Indiana
|
1.4%
↓ -1.5%
|
—
|
$195
|
Kalshi
1.4%
|
|
WI
Wisconsin
|
1.4%
↓ -4.3%
|
—
|
$1.1K
|
Kalshi
1.4%
|
|
MA
Maryland
|
1.1%
↓ -1.4%
|
—
|
$495
|
Kalshi
1.1%
|
|
WA
Washington
|
0.9%
↓ -4.1%
|
—
|
$2.6K
|
Kalshi
0.9%
|
State Redistricting Probabilities Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
No cross-venue pairs available for this event.
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
OH
Ohio
|
VI
Virginia
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.9%
|
B
3.3%
|
+94.60%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
CA
California
|
VI
Virginia
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.8%
|
B
3.3%
|
+94.55%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
FL
Florida
|
VI
Virginia
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.2%
|
B
3.3%
|
+93.95%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TE
Texas
|
VI
Virginia
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.1%
|
B
3.3%
|
+93.85%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
LO
Louisiana
|
VI
Virginia
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.0%
|
B
3.3%
|
+93.75%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
NC
North Carolina
|
VI
Virginia
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.0%
|
B
3.3%
|
+93.75%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TE
Tennessee
|
VI
Virginia
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.0%
|
B
3.3%
|
+93.75%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
OH
Ohio
|
AL
Alabama
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.9%
|
B
4.5%
|
+93.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
CA
California
|
AL
Alabama
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.8%
|
B
4.5%
|
+93.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
OH
Ohio
|
MI
Missouri
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.9%
|
B
4.7%
|
+93.20%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
CA
California
|
MI
Missouri
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.8%
|
B
4.7%
|
+93.15%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
FL
Florida
|
AL
Alabama
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.2%
|
B
4.5%
|
+92.70%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TE
Texas
|
AL
Alabama
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.1%
|
B
4.5%
|
+92.60%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
FL
Florida
|
MI
Missouri
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.2%
|
B
4.7%
|
+92.55%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
LO
Louisiana
|
AL
Alabama
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.0%
|
B
4.5%
|
+92.50%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
NC
North Carolina
|
AL
Alabama
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.0%
|
B
4.5%
|
+92.50%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TE
Tennessee
|
AL
Alabama
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.0%
|
B
4.5%
|
+92.50%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TE
Texas
|
MI
Missouri
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.1%
|
B
4.7%
|
+92.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
LO
Louisiana
|
MI
Missouri
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.0%
|
B
4.7%
|
+92.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
NC
North Carolina
|
MI
Missouri
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.0%
|
B
4.7%
|
+92.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TE
Tennessee
|
MI
Missouri
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.0%
|
B
4.7%
|
+92.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MI
Missouri
|
VI
Virginia
|
Kalshi
|
A
4.7%
|
B
3.3%
|
+1.40%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL
Alabama
|
VI
Virginia
|
Kalshi
|
A
4.5%
|
B
3.3%
|
+1.25%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
OH
Ohio
|
LO
Louisiana
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.9%
|
B
97.0%
|
+0.85%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
OH
Ohio
|
NC
North Carolina
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.9%
|
B
97.0%
|
+0.85%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
OH
Ohio
|
TE
Tennessee
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.9%
|
B
97.0%
|
+0.85%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
CA
California
|
LO
Louisiana
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.8%
|
B
97.0%
|
+0.80%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
CA
California
|
NC
North Carolina
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.8%
|
B
97.0%
|
+0.80%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
CA
California
|
TE
Tennessee
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.8%
|
B
97.0%
|
+0.80%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
OH
Ohio
|
TE
Texas
|
Kalshi
|
A
97.9%
|
B
97.1%
|
+0.75%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
RV
Randy Villegas
Vol —
Spread 5.6%
Agg
90.4%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
U
96.0%
K
90.4%
DV
David Valadao
Vol —
Spread 5.6%
Agg
9.4%
↓ -0.4%
Republican Party
U
15.0%
K
9.4%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
RV
Randy Villegas
Democratic Party
|
90.4%
— +0.0%
|
5.6%
|
—
|
Kalshi
90.4%
|
Polymarket US
96.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
|
DV
David Valadao
Republican Party
|
9.4%
↓ -0.4%
|
5.6%
|
—
|
Kalshi
9.4%
|
Polymarket US
15.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DV
David Valadao
Republican Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
10¢
|
Sell @ U
5¢
|
-5.00%
|
-5.10%
|
No
|
|
|
RV
Randy Villegas
Democratic Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
90.7¢
|
Sell @ U
85¢
|
-5.70%
|
-6.61%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
RV
Randy Villegas
|
DV
David Valadao
|
Polymarket US
|
A
96.0%
|
B
15.0%
|
+81.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
RV
Randy Villegas
|
DV
David Valadao
|
Kalshi
|
A
90.4%
|
B
9.4%
|
+80.95%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
AG
Adam Gray
Vol —
Spread 3.3%
Agg
93.3%
↑ +0.5%
Democratic Party
K
93.3%
G
92.5%
U
90.0%
KL
Kevin Lincoln
Vol —
Spread 2.0%
Agg
7.0%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
U
9.0%
K
7.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AG
Adam Gray
Democratic Party
|
93.3%
↑ +0.5%
|
3.3%
|
—
|
Kalshi
93.3%
|
Polymarket US
90.0%
|
Gemini
92.5%
|
|
KL
Kevin Lincoln
Republican Party
|
7.0%
— +0.0%
|
2.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
7.0%
|
Polymarket US
9.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AG
Adam Gray
Democratic Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
90¢
|
Sell @ K
92.1¢
|
+2.10%
|
+1.18%
|
No
|
|
|
KL
Kevin Lincoln
Republican Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
9.5¢
|
Sell @ U
8¢
|
-1.50%
|
-1.60%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AG
Adam Gray
|
KL
Kevin Lincoln
|
Kalshi
|
A
93.3%
|
B
7.0%
|
+86.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AG
Adam Gray
|
KL
Kevin Lincoln
|
Polymarket US
|
A
90.0%
|
B
9.0%
|
+81.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
LF
Lois Frankel
Vol —
Spread 4.5%
Agg
94.5%
↑ +0.3%
Democratic Party
U
99.0%
K
94.5%
DA
Deborah Adeimy
Vol —
Spread 4.2%
Agg
5.8%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
U
10.0%
K
5.8%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LF
Lois Frankel
Democratic Party
|
94.5%
↑ +0.3%
|
4.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
94.5%
|
Polymarket US
99.0%
|
|
DA
Deborah Adeimy
Republican Party
|
5.8%
— +0.0%
|
4.2%
|
—
|
Kalshi
5.8%
|
Polymarket US
10.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DA
Deborah Adeimy
Republican Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
10¢
|
Sell @ K
4¢
|
-6.00%
|
-6.07%
|
No
|
|
|
LF
Lois Frankel
Democratic Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
99¢
|
Sell @ K
93.1¢
|
-5.90%
|
-6.83%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LF
Lois Frankel
|
DA
Deborah Adeimy
|
Polymarket US
|
A
99.0%
|
B
10.0%
|
+89.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
LF
Lois Frankel
|
DA
Deborah Adeimy
|
Kalshi
|
A
94.5%
|
B
5.8%
|
+88.70%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
ML
Matt Little
Vol —
Spread 4.8%
Agg
91.2%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
U
96.0%
G
91.5%
K
91.2%
EP
Eric Pratt
Vol —
Spread 1.2%
Agg
8.8%
↑ +0.1%
Republican Party
U
10.0%
G
10.0%
K
8.8%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ML
Matt Little
Democratic Party
|
91.2%
— +0.0%
|
4.8%
|
—
|
Kalshi
91.2%
|
Polymarket US
96.0%
|
Gemini
91.5%
|
|
EP
Eric Pratt
Republican Party
|
8.8%
↑ +0.1%
|
1.2%
|
—
|
Kalshi
8.8%
|
Polymarket US
10.0%
|
Gemini
10.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EP
Eric Pratt
Republican Party
|
Kalshi
→
Gemini
|
Buy @ K
9.9¢
|
Sell @ G
9¢
|
-0.90%
|
-1.04%
|
No
|
|
|
ML
Matt Little
Democratic Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
92.3¢
|
Sell @ U
89¢
|
-3.30%
|
-4.22%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ML
Matt Little
|
EP
Eric Pratt
|
Polymarket US
|
A
96.0%
|
B
10.0%
|
+86.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
ML
Matt Little
|
EP
Eric Pratt
|
Kalshi
|
A
91.2%
|
B
8.8%
|
+82.40%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
ML
Matt Little
|
EP
Eric Pratt
|
Gemini
|
A
91.5%
|
B
10.0%
|
+81.50%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
EC
Emanuel Cleaver
Vol —
Spread 68.2%
Agg
91.1%
↑ +0.2%
Democratic Party
K
91.1%
G
73.0%
U
23.0%
RB
Rick Brattin
Vol —
Spread 0.7%
Agg
7.7%
↑ +0.1%
Republican Party
K
7.7%
G
7.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EC
Emanuel Cleaver
Democratic Party
|
91.1%
↑ +0.2%
|
68.2%
|
—
|
Kalshi
91.1%
|
Polymarket US
23.0%
|
Gemini
73.0%
|
|
RB
Rick Brattin
Republican Party
|
7.7%
↑ +0.1%
|
0.7%
|
—
|
Kalshi
7.7%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
7.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EC
Emanuel Cleaver
Democratic Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
23¢
|
Sell @ K
90.3¢
|
+67.30%
|
+66.40%
|
Yes
|
|
|
RB
Rick Brattin
Republican Party
|
Gemini
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ G
8¢
|
Sell @ K
6.6¢
|
-1.40%
|
-1.50%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EC
Emanuel Cleaver
|
RB
Rick Brattin
|
Kalshi
|
A
91.1%
|
B
7.7%
|
+83.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
EC
Emanuel Cleaver
|
RB
Rick Brattin
|
Gemini
|
A
73.0%
|
B
7.0%
|
+66.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
CB
Christina Bohannan
Vol —
Spread 38.5%
Agg
79.5%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
K
79.5%
U
77.0%
G
41.0%
MMM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Vol —
Spread 13.0%
Agg
22.5%
↑ +0.5%
Republican Party
U
25.0%
K
22.5%
G
12.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CB
Christina Bohannan
Democratic Party
|
79.5%
— +0.0%
|
38.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
79.5%
|
Polymarket US
77.0%
|
Gemini
41.0%
|
|
MMM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Republican Party
|
22.5%
↑ +0.5%
|
13.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
22.5%
|
Polymarket US
25.0%
|
Gemini
12.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MMM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Republican Party
|
Gemini
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ G
12¢
|
Sell @ U
24¢
|
+12.00%
|
+11.95%
|
Yes
|
|
|
CB
Christina Bohannan
Democratic Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
77¢
|
Sell @ K
79¢
|
+2.00%
|
+1.21%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CB
Christina Bohannan
|
MMM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
|
Kalshi
|
A
79.5%
|
B
22.5%
|
+57.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
CB
Christina Bohannan
|
MMM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
|
Polymarket US
|
A
77.0%
|
B
25.0%
|
+52.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
CB
Christina Bohannan
|
MMM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
|
Gemini
|
A
41.0%
|
B
12.0%
|
+29.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
CH
Christina Hines
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
65.5%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
K
65.5%
U
64.0%
MBJ
Michael Bouchard Jr.
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
34.5%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
U
36.0%
K
34.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CH
Christina Hines
Democratic Party
|
65.5%
— +0.0%
|
1.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
65.5%
|
Polymarket US
64.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
|
MBJ
Michael Bouchard Jr.
Republican Party
|
34.5%
— +0.0%
|
1.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
34.5%
|
Polymarket US
36.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CH
Christina Hines
Democratic Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
64¢
|
Sell @ K
65¢
|
+1.00%
|
+0.35%
|
No
|
|
|
MBJ
Michael Bouchard Jr.
Republican Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
35¢
|
Sell @ U
35¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.35%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CH
Christina Hines
|
MBJ
Michael Bouchard Jr.
|
Kalshi
|
A
65.5%
|
B
34.5%
|
+31.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
CH
Christina Hines
|
MBJ
Michael Bouchard Jr.
|
Polymarket US
|
A
64.0%
|
B
36.0%
|
+28.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
APL
Anna Paulina Luna
Vol —
Spread 6.5%
Agg
72.5%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
U
79.0%
K
72.5%
LG
Leela Gray
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
29.5%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
U
31.0%
K
29.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
APL
Anna Paulina Luna
Republican Party
|
72.5%
— +0.0%
|
6.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
72.5%
|
Polymarket US
79.0%
|
|
LG
Leela Gray
Democratic Party
|
29.5%
— +0.0%
|
1.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
29.5%
|
Polymarket US
31.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LG
Leela Gray
Democratic Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
31¢
|
Sell @ K
29¢
|
-2.00%
|
-2.29%
|
No
|
|
|
APL
Anna Paulina Luna
Republican Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
73¢
|
Sell @ U
70¢
|
-3.00%
|
-3.73%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
APL
Anna Paulina Luna
|
LG
Leela Gray
|
Polymarket US
|
A
79.0%
|
B
31.0%
|
+48.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
APL
Anna Paulina Luna
|
LG
Leela Gray
|
Kalshi
|
A
72.5%
|
B
29.5%
|
+43.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
GW
George Whitesides
Vol —
Spread 6.3%
Agg
92.7%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
U
99.0%
K
92.7%
JG
Jason Gibbs
Vol —
Spread 5.8%
Agg
7.2%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
U
13.0%
K
7.2%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GW
George Whitesides
Democratic Party
|
92.7%
— +0.0%
|
6.3%
|
—
|
Kalshi
92.7%
|
Polymarket US
99.0%
|
|
JG
Jason Gibbs
Republican Party
|
7.2%
— +0.0%
|
5.8%
|
—
|
Kalshi
7.2%
|
Polymarket US
13.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JG
Jason Gibbs
Republican Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
13¢
|
Sell @ K
4.5¢
|
-8.50%
|
-8.57%
|
No
|
|
|
GW
George Whitesides
Democratic Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
95.4¢
|
Sell @ U
87¢
|
-8.40%
|
-9.35%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GW
George Whitesides
|
JG
Jason Gibbs
|
Polymarket US
|
A
99.0%
|
B
13.0%
|
+86.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
GW
George Whitesides
|
JG
Jason Gibbs
|
Kalshi
|
A
92.7%
|
B
7.2%
|
+85.45%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
ES
Eric Sorensen
Vol —
Spread 51.5%
Agg
94.3%
↑ +0.5%
Democratic Party
U
99.0%
K
94.3%
G
47.5%
DV
Dillan Vancil
Vol —
Spread 5.3%
Agg
4.7%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
U
10.0%
G
5.0%
K
4.7%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ES
Eric Sorensen
Democratic Party
|
94.3%
↑ +0.5%
|
51.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
94.3%
|
Polymarket US
99.0%
|
Gemini
47.5%
|
|
DV
Dillan Vancil
Republican Party
|
4.7%
— +0.0%
|
5.3%
|
—
|
Kalshi
4.7%
|
Polymarket US
10.0%
|
Gemini
5.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ES
Eric Sorensen
Democratic Party
|
Gemini
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ G
94¢
|
Sell @ K
93.7¢
|
-0.30%
|
-1.61%
|
No
|
|
|
DV
Dillan Vancil
Republican Party
|
Kalshi
→
Gemini
|
Buy @ K
6¢
|
Sell @ G
2¢
|
-4.00%
|
-4.08%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ES
Eric Sorensen
|
DV
Dillan Vancil
|
Kalshi
|
A
94.3%
|
B
4.7%
|
+89.60%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
ES
Eric Sorensen
|
DV
Dillan Vancil
|
Polymarket US
|
A
99.0%
|
B
10.0%
|
+89.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
ES
Eric Sorensen
|
DV
Dillan Vancil
|
Gemini
|
A
47.5%
|
B
5.0%
|
+42.50%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Texas Senate match up odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DN2
Dem Nominee - 2
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
↑ +35.5%
K
100.0%
DN
Dem Nominee
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -35.5%
K
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DN2
Dem Nominee - 2
|
100.0%
↑ +35.5%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
|
DN
Dem Nominee
|
0.0%
↓ -35.5%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Texas Senate Odds: James Talarico at 59.5%
Texas is one of the most closely watched Senate contests of the 2026 cycle. James Talarico currently leads the winner market at 59.5%, with Ken Paxton at 40.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, Polymarket US and OG as the statewide race moves toward November.
Top prediction apps to trade on the Texas Senate race
Trade $10, Get $25
T&C’s apply.
Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus
Risk Disclaimer
Current Texas Senate Winner Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
JT
James Talarico
Vol —
Spread 4.0%
Agg
59.5%
↑ +9.0%
O
63.0%
K
59.5%
G
59.5%
U
59.0%
KP
Ken Paxton
Vol —
Spread 3.5%
Agg
40.5%
↓ -10.0%
U
44.0%
O
44.0%
K
40.5%
G
40.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JT
James Talarico
|
59.5%
↑ +9.0%
|
4.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
59.5%
|
Polymarket US
59.0%
|
Gemini
59.5%
|
OG
63.0%
|
|
KP
Ken Paxton
|
40.5%
↓ -10.0%
|
3.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
40.5%
|
Polymarket US
44.0%
|
Gemini
40.5%
|
OG
44.0%
|
Texas Senate Winner Odds Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
KP
Ken Paxton
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
41¢
|
Sell @ U
43¢
|
+2.00%
|
+1.59%
|
Yes
|
|
|
JT
James Talarico
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
59¢
|
Sell @ K
59¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.59%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JT
James Talarico
|
KP
Ken Paxton
|
Kalshi
|
A
59.5%
|
B
40.5%
|
+19.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JT
James Talarico
|
KP
Ken Paxton
|
Gemini
|
A
59.5%
|
B
40.5%
|
+19.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JT
James Talarico
|
KP
Ken Paxton
|
Polymarket US
|
A
59.0%
|
B
44.0%
|
+15.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Maine Senate Odds: Troy Jackson at 67.5%
Maine’s Senate contest is one of the most active statewide general-election markets across prediction platforms. Troy Jackson currently leads at 67.5%, ahead of Susan Collins at 33.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, Polymarket US and OG as the race develops toward November.
Top prediction apps to trade on the Maine Senate race
Trade $10, Get $25
T&C’s apply.
Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus
Risk Disclaimer
Current Maine Senate Winner Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
TJ
Troy Jackson
Vol —
Spread 4.0%
Agg
67.5%
↑ +2.0%
O
70.0%
G
68.0%
K
67.5%
U
66.0%
SC
Susan Collins
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
33.5%
↓ -2.0%
U
36.0%
O
36.0%
G
34.0%
K
33.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
67.5%
↑ +2.0%
|
4.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
67.5%
|
Polymarket US
66.0%
|
Gemini
68.0%
|
OG
70.0%
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
33.5%
↓ -2.0%
|
2.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
33.5%
|
Polymarket US
36.0%
|
Gemini
34.0%
|
OG
36.0%
|
Maine Senate Winner Odds Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
Polymarket US
→
Gemini
|
Buy @ U
66¢
|
Sell @ G
67¢
|
+1.00%
|
+0.73%
|
No
|
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
34¢
|
Sell @ U
35¢
|
+1.00%
|
+0.66%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
Kalshi
|
A
67.5%
|
B
33.5%
|
+34.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
Gemini
|
A
68.0%
|
B
34.0%
|
+34.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
Polymarket US
|
A
66.0%
|
B
36.0%
|
+30.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Maine Senate Candidate Odds: Troy Jackson Leads
Kalshi’s candidate-specific Maine Senate market provides a deeper view than the party-winner contract alone. Troy Jackson currently leads at 67.5%, ahead of Susan Collins at 33.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, Polymarket US and OG for the named candidates as the November race evolves.
Top prediction apps to trade on the Maine Senate race
Trade $10, Get $25
T&C’s apply.
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Risk Disclaimer
Current Maine Senate Candidate Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
TJ
Troy Jackson
Vol —
Spread 4.0%
Agg
67.5%
↑ +3.0%
O
70.0%
G
68.0%
K
67.5%
U
66.0%
SC
Susan Collins
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
33.5%
↓ -2.0%
U
36.0%
O
36.0%
G
34.0%
K
33.5%
AKI
Angus King III
Vol $6
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
BB
Brian Bryant
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
DK
Dan Kleban
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
GP
Graham Platner
Vol $1.8K
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
↓ -0.1%
K
0.1%
JM
Janet Mills
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
JG
Jared Golden
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
MD
Mattie Daughtrey
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
NS
Nirav Shah
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
PD
Patrick Dempsey
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
SG
Sara Gideon
Vol $9
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
SB
Shenna Bellows
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
SK
Stephen King
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
VG
Valli Geiger
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
K
0.1%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
67.5%
↑ +3.0%
|
4.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
67.5%
|
Polymarket US
66.0%
|
Gemini
68.0%
|
OG
70.0%
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
33.5%
↓ -2.0%
|
2.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
33.5%
|
Polymarket US
36.0%
|
Gemini
34.0%
|
OG
36.0%
|
|
AKI
Angus King III
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$6
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
BB
Brian Bryant
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
DK
Dan Kleban
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$2
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
GP
Graham Platner
|
0.1%
↓ -0.1%
|
—
|
$1.8K
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
JM
Janet Mills
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$2
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
JG
Jared Golden
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
MD
Mattie Daughtrey
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
NS
Nirav Shah
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$2
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
PD
Patrick Dempsey
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
SG
Sara Gideon
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$9
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
SB
Shenna Bellows
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
SK
Stephen King
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$2
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
VG
Valli Geiger
|
0.1%
— +0.0%
|
—
|
$1
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
Maine Senate Candidate Odds Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
Polymarket US
→
Gemini
|
Buy @ U
66¢
|
Sell @ G
67¢
|
+1.00%
|
+0.73%
|
No
|
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
34¢
|
Sell @ U
35¢
|
+1.00%
|
+0.66%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
AKI
Angus King III
|
Kalshi
|
A
67.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+67.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
BB
Brian Bryant
|
Kalshi
|
A
67.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+67.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
DK
Dan Kleban
|
Kalshi
|
A
67.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+67.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
GP
Graham Platner
|
Kalshi
|
A
67.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+67.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
JM
Janet Mills
|
Kalshi
|
A
67.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+67.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
JG
Jared Golden
|
Kalshi
|
A
67.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+67.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
MD
Mattie Daughtrey
|
Kalshi
|
A
67.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+67.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
NS
Nirav Shah
|
Kalshi
|
A
67.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+67.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
Kalshi
|
A
67.5%
|
B
33.5%
|
+34.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
Gemini
|
A
68.0%
|
B
34.0%
|
+34.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
AKI
Angus King III
|
Kalshi
|
A
33.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+33.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
BB
Brian Bryant
|
Kalshi
|
A
33.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+33.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
DK
Dan Kleban
|
Kalshi
|
A
33.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+33.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
GP
Graham Platner
|
Kalshi
|
A
33.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+33.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
JM
Janet Mills
|
Kalshi
|
A
33.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+33.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
JG
Jared Golden
|
Kalshi
|
A
33.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+33.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
MD
Mattie Daughtrey
|
Kalshi
|
A
33.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+33.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
NS
Nirav Shah
|
Kalshi
|
A
33.5%
|
B
0.1%
|
+33.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
TJ
Troy Jackson
|
SC
Susan Collins
|
Polymarket US
|
A
66.0%
|
B
36.0%
|
+30.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Michigan Senate Odds: Abdul El-Sayed at 65.5%
Michigan’s open Senate race is one of the cycle’s most active general-election contests. Abdul El-Sayed currently leads at 65.5%, ahead of Mike Rogers at 34.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, Polymarket US and OG as the nominees compete for the seat.
Top prediction apps to trade on the Michigan Senate race
Trade $10, Get $25
T&C’s apply.
Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus
Risk Disclaimer
Current Michigan Senate Winner Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
AES
Abdul El-Sayed
Vol —
Spread 3.5%
Agg
65.5%
↑ +10.0%
O
68.0%
U
67.0%
K
65.5%
G
64.5%
MR
Mike Rogers
Vol —
Spread 7.0%
Agg
34.5%
↓ -11.0%
O
40.0%
G
35.5%
K
34.5%
U
33.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AES
Abdul El-Sayed
|
65.5%
↑ +10.0%
|
3.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
65.5%
|
Polymarket US
67.0%
|
Gemini
64.5%
|
OG
68.0%
|
|
MR
Mike Rogers
|
34.5%
↓ -11.0%
|
7.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
34.5%
|
Polymarket US
33.0%
|
Gemini
35.5%
|
OG
40.0%
|
Michigan Senate Winner Odds Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MR
Mike Rogers
|
Polymarket US
→
Gemini
|
Buy @ U
33¢
|
Sell @ G
35¢
|
+2.00%
|
+1.86%
|
Yes
|
|
|
AES
Abdul El-Sayed
|
Gemini
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ G
65¢
|
Sell @ U
66¢
|
+1.00%
|
+0.74%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AES
Abdul El-Sayed
|
MR
Mike Rogers
|
Polymarket US
|
A
67.0%
|
B
33.0%
|
+34.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AES
Abdul El-Sayed
|
MR
Mike Rogers
|
Kalshi
|
A
65.5%
|
B
34.5%
|
+31.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AES
Abdul El-Sayed
|
MR
Mike Rogers
|
Gemini
|
A
64.5%
|
B
35.5%
|
+29.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Ohio Senate Odds: Sherrod Brown at 55.5%
Ohio’s Senate contest is a major statewide race on the 2026 midterm board. Sherrod Brown currently leads at 55.5%, ahead of Jon Husted at 44.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, Polymarket US and OG as the campaign moves toward Election Day.
Top prediction apps to trade on the Ohio Senate race
Trade $10, Get $25
T&C’s apply.
Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus
Risk Disclaimer
Current Ohio Senate Winner Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
SB
Sherrod Brown
Vol —
Spread 4.5%
Agg
55.5%
↑ +2.0%
O
60.0%
U
56.0%
K
55.5%
JH
Jon Husted
Vol —
Spread 5.5%
Agg
44.5%
↓ -2.0%
O
50.0%
U
46.0%
K
44.5%
G
44.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SB
Sherrod Brown
|
55.5%
↑ +2.0%
|
4.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
55.5%
|
Polymarket US
56.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
60.0%
|
|
JH
Jon Husted
|
44.5%
↓ -2.0%
|
5.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
44.5%
|
Polymarket US
46.0%
|
Gemini
44.5%
|
OG
50.0%
|
Ohio Senate Winner Odds Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JH
Jon Husted
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
45¢
|
Sell @ U
45¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.45%
|
No
|
|
|
SB
Sherrod Brown
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
56¢
|
Sell @ K
55¢
|
-1.00%
|
-1.55%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SB
Sherrod Brown
|
JH
Jon Husted
|
Kalshi
|
A
55.5%
|
B
44.5%
|
+11.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SB
Sherrod Brown
|
JH
Jon Husted
|
Polymarket US
|
A
56.0%
|
B
46.0%
|
+10.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
AH
Ashley Hinson
Vol —
Spread 0.5%
Agg
59.5%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
K
59.5%
G
59.5%
U
59.0%
JT
Josh Turek
Vol —
Spread 3.5%
Agg
40.5%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
G
41.5%
K
40.5%
U
38.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AH
Ashley Hinson
Republican Party
|
59.5%
— +0.0%
|
0.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
59.5%
|
Polymarket US
59.0%
|
Gemini
59.5%
|
|
JT
Josh Turek
Democratic Party
|
40.5%
— +0.0%
|
3.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
40.5%
|
Polymarket US
38.0%
|
Gemini
41.5%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JT
Josh Turek
Democratic Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Gemini
|
Buy @ U
38¢
|
Sell @ G
41¢
|
+3.00%
|
+2.84%
|
Yes
|
|
|
AH
Ashley Hinson
Republican Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
59¢
|
Sell @ K
59¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.59%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AH
Ashley Hinson
|
JT
Josh Turek
|
Polymarket US
|
A
59.0%
|
B
38.0%
|
+21.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AH
Ashley Hinson
|
JT
Josh Turek
|
Kalshi
|
A
59.5%
|
B
40.5%
|
+19.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AH
Ashley Hinson
|
JT
Josh Turek
|
Gemini
|
A
59.5%
|
B
41.5%
|
+18.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
RC
Roy Cooper
Vol —
Spread 0.4%
Agg
92.5%
↑ +0.1%
Democratic Party
K
92.5%
U
92.0%
MW
Michael Whatley
Vol —
Spread 0.9%
Agg
8.0%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
K
8.0%
G
7.5%
U
7.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
RC
Roy Cooper
Democratic Party
|
92.5%
↑ +0.1%
|
0.4%
|
—
|
Kalshi
92.5%
|
Polymarket US
92.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
|
MW
Michael Whatley
Republican Party
|
8.0%
— +0.0%
|
0.9%
|
—
|
Kalshi
8.0%
|
Polymarket US
7.0%
|
Gemini
7.5%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MW
Michael Whatley
Republican Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
7¢
|
Sell @ K
7.9¢
|
+0.90%
|
+0.82%
|
No
|
|
|
RC
Roy Cooper
Democratic Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
92¢
|
Sell @ K
92.2¢
|
+0.20%
|
-0.72%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
RC
Roy Cooper
|
MW
Michael Whatley
|
Polymarket US
|
A
92.0%
|
B
7.0%
|
+85.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
RC
Roy Cooper
|
MW
Michael Whatley
|
Kalshi
|
A
92.5%
|
B
8.0%
|
+84.50%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DGN
Darline Graham Nordone
Vol —
Spread 2.0%
Agg
86.5%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
U
88.0%
K
86.5%
G
86.0%
AA
Annie Andrews
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
13.5%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
U
15.0%
K
13.5%
G
13.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DGN
Darline Graham Nordone
Republican Party
|
86.5%
— +0.0%
|
2.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
86.5%
|
Polymarket US
88.0%
|
Gemini
86.0%
|
|
AA
Annie Andrews
Democratic Party
|
13.5%
— +0.0%
|
1.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
13.5%
|
Polymarket US
15.0%
|
Gemini
13.5%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AA
Annie Andrews
Democratic Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
14¢
|
Sell @ U
14¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.14%
|
No
|
|
|
DGN
Darline Graham Nordone
Republican Party
|
Gemini
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ G
87¢
|
Sell @ U
87¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.35%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DGN
Darline Graham Nordone
|
AA
Annie Andrews
|
Kalshi
|
A
86.5%
|
B
13.5%
|
+73.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
DGN
Darline Graham Nordone
|
AA
Annie Andrews
|
Polymarket US
|
A
88.0%
|
B
15.0%
|
+73.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
DGN
Darline Graham Nordone
|
AA
Annie Andrews
|
Gemini
|
A
86.0%
|
B
13.5%
|
+72.50%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
MP
Mary Peltola
Vol —
Spread 40.0%
Agg
72.7%
↑ +0.6%
Democratic Party
P
73.5%
K
71.5%
U
67.0%
G
33.5%
DS
Dan Sullivan
Vol —
Spread 10.5%
Agg
29.4%
↑ +0.1%
Republican Party
G
37.0%
U
32.0%
K
29.5%
P
26.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MP
Mary Peltola
Democratic Party
|
72.7%
↑ +0.6%
|
40.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
71.5%
|
Polymarket
73.5%
|
Polymarket US
67.0%
|
Gemini
33.5%
|
|
DS
Dan Sullivan
Republican Party
|
29.4%
↑ +0.1%
|
10.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
29.5%
|
Polymarket
26.5%
|
Polymarket US
32.0%
|
Gemini
37.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MP
Mary Peltola
Democratic Party
|
Gemini
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ G
66¢
|
Sell @ P
73¢
|
+7.00%
|
+6.74%
|
Yes
|
|
|
DS
Dan Sullivan
Republican Party
|
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ P
27¢
|
Sell @ U
31¢
|
+4.00%
|
+4.00%
|
Yes
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MP
Mary Peltola
|
DS
Dan Sullivan
|
Polymarket
|
A
73.5%
|
B
26.5%
|
+47.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MP
Mary Peltola
|
DS
Dan Sullivan
|
Kalshi
|
A
71.5%
|
B
29.5%
|
+42.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MP
Mary Peltola
|
DS
Dan Sullivan
|
Polymarket US
|
A
67.0%
|
B
32.0%
|
+35.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
DS
Dan Sullivan
|
MP
Mary Peltola
|
Gemini
|
A
37.0%
|
B
33.5%
|
+3.50%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
RM
Roger Marshall
Vol —
Spread 0.5%
Agg
73.5%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
U
74.0%
K
73.5%
AH
Adam Hamilton
Vol —
Spread 3.5%
Agg
26.5%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
U
30.0%
K
26.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
RM
Roger Marshall
Republican Party
|
73.5%
— +0.0%
|
0.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
73.5%
|
Polymarket US
74.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
|
AH
Adam Hamilton
Democratic Party
|
26.5%
— +0.0%
|
3.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
26.5%
|
Polymarket US
30.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AH
Adam Hamilton
Democratic Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
27¢
|
Sell @ U
29¢
|
+2.00%
|
+1.73%
|
Yes
|
|
|
RM
Roger Marshall
Republican Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
74¢
|
Sell @ K
73¢
|
-1.00%
|
-1.73%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
RM
Roger Marshall
|
AH
Adam Hamilton
|
Kalshi
|
A
73.5%
|
B
26.5%
|
+47.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
RM
Roger Marshall
|
AH
Adam Hamilton
|
Polymarket US
|
A
74.0%
|
B
30.0%
|
+44.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
California Governor Odds 2026: Becerra vs. Hilton
California's June 2 top-two primary is certified: Democrat Xavier Becerra finished first with 28.0% of the vote and Republican Steve Hilton finished second with 24.6%. They advance to the November 3 general election. Xavier Becerra now leads the winner market at 94.4%, ahead of Steve Hilton at 4.2%. DeFi Rate aggregates current pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket Global, Polymarket US, Gemini Predictions and OG; venue-level activity is shown separately because the platforms report volume on different bases.
Top prediction apps to trade on the California governor race
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Risk Disclaimer
CA Governor odds: Xavier Becerra is the current favorite to win over Steve Hilton
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
XB
Xavier Becerra
Vol —
Spread 2.2%
Agg
94.4%
↓ -1.1%
G
96.5%
U
96.0%
K
95.7%
P
94.3%
SH
Steve Hilton
Vol —
Spread 5.3%
Agg
4.2%
↓ -0.2%
O
9.0%
P
5.5%
U
5.0%
G
4.5%
K
3.8%
TS
Tom Steyer
Vol $8.9K
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
AP
Alex Padilla
Vol $177
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
AV
Antonio Villaraigosa
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
BY
Bette Yee
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
BW
Butch Ware
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
CB
Chad Bianco
Vol $269
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
DM
Daniel Mercuri
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
EK
Eleni Kounalakis
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
ES
Eric Swalwell
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
KH
Kamala Harris
Vol $201
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
KP
Katie Porter
Vol $18
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
KL
Kyle Langford
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
LZ
Leo Zacky
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
MM
Matt Mahan
Vol $2.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
MY
Michael Younger
Vol $9
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
NS
Nicole Shanahan
Vol $3
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
RC
Rick Caruso
Vol $66
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
SC
Stephen Cloobeck
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
TA
Toni Atkins
Vol $6
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
TT
Tony Thurmond
Vol $94
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
— +0.0%
P
0.1%
CA
Ché Ahn
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
—
K
0.0%
EA
Ethan Agarwal
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
—
K
0.0%
RB
Rob Bonta
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
—
K
0.0%
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
California Gov Party Winner
Aggregated cross-platform odds for California Gov Party Winner. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
TDP
the Democratic party
Vol $16
Spread —
Agg
95.9%
↑ +10.4%
K
95.9%
TRP
the Republican party
Vol $358
Spread —
Agg
4.2%
↓ -10.3%
K
4.2%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TDP
the Democratic party
|
95.9%
↑ +10.4%
|
—
|
$16
|
Kalshi
95.9%
|
|
TRP
the Republican party
|
4.2%
↓ -10.3%
|
—
|
$358
|
Kalshi
4.2%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
No cross-venue pairs available for this event.
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TDP
the Democratic party
|
TRP
the Republican party
|
Kalshi
|
A
95.9%
|
B
4.2%
|
+91.65%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Georgia Election Odds: Senate and Governor Predictions
Aggregated cross-platform odds for Georgia Election Odds: Senate and Governor Predictions. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket Global, Polymarket US, Gemini Predictions and OG with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.
Which party will win the US Senate race in Georgia in 2026?
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DE
Democrats
Vol —
Spread 4.0%
Agg
93.8%
↑ +1.4%
O
97.0%
P
94.0%
G
93.5%
K
93.5%
U
93.0%
KLB
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Vol —
Spread 19.0%
Agg
51.7%
↓ -3.8%
O
59.0%
U
56.0%
G
40.0%
RJ
Rick Jackson
Vol —
Spread 2.0%
Agg
44.7%
↓ -1.8%
O
46.0%
U
44.0%
G
44.0%
RE
Republicans
Vol —
Spread 4.8%
Agg
5.8%
↓ -1.5%
O
10.0%
U
7.0%
K
6.8%
G
6.5%
P
5.3%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DE
Democrats
|
93.8%
↑ +1.4%
|
4.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
93.5%
|
Polymarket
94.0%
|
Polymarket US
93.0%
|
Gemini
93.5%
|
OG
97.0%
|
|
KLB
Keisha Lance Bottoms
|
51.7%
↓ -3.8%
|
19.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
56.0%
|
Gemini
40.0%
|
OG
59.0%
|
|
RJ
Rick Jackson
|
44.7%
↓ -1.8%
|
2.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
44.0%
|
Gemini
44.0%
|
OG
46.0%
|
|
RE
Republicans
|
5.8%
↓ -1.5%
|
4.8%
|
—
|
Kalshi
6.8%
|
Polymarket
5.3%
|
Polymarket US
7.0%
|
Gemini
6.5%
|
OG
10.0%
|
Which party will win the Georgia governorship in 2026?
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DP
Democratic party
Vol $4.9K
Spread 19.5%
Agg
58.6%
↑ +0.1%
P
59.5%
O
59.0%
K
56.5%
U
56.0%
G
40.0%
RP
Republican party
Vol $4.2K
Spread 4.5%
Agg
42.9%
↑ +2.4%
O
46.0%
U
44.0%
G
44.0%
K
43.5%
P
41.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DP
Democratic party
|
58.6%
↑ +0.1%
|
19.5%
|
$4.9K
|
Kalshi
56.5%
|
Polymarket
59.5%
|
Polymarket US
56.0%
|
Gemini
40.0%
|
OG
59.0%
|
|
RP
Republican party
|
42.9%
↑ +2.4%
|
4.5%
|
$4.2K
|
Kalshi
43.5%
|
Polymarket
41.5%
|
Polymarket US
44.0%
|
Gemini
44.0%
|
OG
46.0%
|
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
AA
Amy Acton
Vol —
Spread 0.5%
Agg
57.5%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
U
58.0%
K
57.5%
G
57.5%
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vol —
Spread 23.5%
Agg
43.5%
↑ +1.0%
Republican Party
K
43.5%
U
41.0%
G
20.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AA
Amy Acton
Democratic Party
|
57.5%
— +0.0%
|
0.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
57.5%
|
Polymarket US
58.0%
|
Gemini
57.5%
|
|
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
Republican Party
|
43.5%
↑ +1.0%
|
23.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
43.5%
|
Polymarket US
41.0%
|
Gemini
20.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
Republican Party
|
Gemini
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ G
20¢
|
Sell @ K
43¢
|
+23.00%
|
+22.49%
|
Yes
|
|
|
AA
Amy Acton
Democratic Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
58¢
|
Sell @ K
57¢
|
-1.00%
|
-1.57%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AA
Amy Acton
|
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
|
Gemini
|
A
57.5%
|
B
20.0%
|
+37.50%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AA
Amy Acton
|
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
|
Polymarket US
|
A
58.0%
|
B
41.0%
|
+17.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AA
Amy Acton
|
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
|
Kalshi
|
A
57.5%
|
B
43.5%
|
+14.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DC
David Crowley
Vol —
Spread 71.5%
Agg
83.5%
↓ -1.0%
Democratic Party
K
83.5%
U
83.0%
G
12.0%
TT
Tom Tiffany
Vol —
Spread 6.0%
Agg
16.5%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
U
18.0%
K
16.5%
G
12.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DC
David Crowley
Democratic Party
|
83.5%
↓ -1.0%
|
71.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
83.5%
|
Polymarket US
83.0%
|
Gemini
12.0%
|
|
TT
Tom Tiffany
Republican Party
|
16.5%
— +0.0%
|
6.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
16.5%
|
Polymarket US
18.0%
|
Gemini
12.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DC
David Crowley
Democratic Party
|
Gemini
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ G
12¢
|
Sell @ K
83¢
|
+71.00%
|
+70.12%
|
Yes
|
|
|
TT
Tom Tiffany
Republican Party
|
Gemini
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ G
12¢
|
Sell @ U
17¢
|
+5.00%
|
+4.95%
|
Yes
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DC
David Crowley
|
TT
Tom Tiffany
|
Kalshi
|
A
83.5%
|
B
16.5%
|
+67.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
DC
David Crowley
|
TT
Tom Tiffany
|
Polymarket US
|
A
83.0%
|
B
18.0%
|
+65.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
BD
Byron Donalds
Vol —
Spread 67.5%
Agg
79.5%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
K
79.5%
U
79.0%
G
12.0%
DJ
David Jolly
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
21.5%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
K
21.5%
U
19.0%
G
19.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
Republican Party
|
79.5%
— +0.0%
|
67.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
79.5%
|
Polymarket US
79.0%
|
Gemini
12.0%
|
|
DJ
David Jolly
Democratic Party
|
21.5%
— +0.0%
|
2.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
21.5%
|
Polymarket US
19.0%
|
Gemini
19.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
Republican Party
|
Gemini
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ G
12¢
|
Sell @ K
79¢
|
+67.00%
|
+66.16%
|
Yes
|
|
|
DJ
David Jolly
Democratic Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
19¢
|
Sell @ K
21¢
|
+2.00%
|
+1.79%
|
Yes
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
DJ
David Jolly
|
Polymarket US
|
A
79.0%
|
B
19.0%
|
+60.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
DJ
David Jolly
|
Kalshi
|
A
79.5%
|
B
21.5%
|
+58.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
DJ
David Jolly
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
Gemini
|
A
19.0%
|
B
12.0%
|
+7.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
KH
Kathy Hochul
Vol —
Spread 1.1%
Agg
92.9%
↑ +0.1%
Democratic Party
U
94.0%
G
93.0%
K
92.9%
BB
Bruce Blakeman
Vol —
Spread 0.9%
Agg
7.1%
↓ -0.2%
Republican Party
U
8.0%
G
7.5%
K
7.1%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
KH
Kathy Hochul
Democratic Party
|
92.9%
↑ +0.1%
|
1.1%
|
—
|
Kalshi
92.9%
|
Polymarket US
94.0%
|
Gemini
93.0%
|
|
BB
Bruce Blakeman
Republican Party
|
7.1%
↓ -0.2%
|
0.9%
|
—
|
Kalshi
7.1%
|
Polymarket US
8.0%
|
Gemini
7.5%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BB
Bruce Blakeman
Republican Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
7.4¢
|
Sell @ U
7¢
|
-0.40%
|
-0.47%
|
No
|
|
|
KH
Kathy Hochul
Democratic Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
93¢
|
Sell @ U
93¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.93%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
KH
Kathy Hochul
|
BB
Bruce Blakeman
|
Polymarket US
|
A
94.0%
|
B
8.0%
|
+86.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
KH
Kathy Hochul
|
BB
Bruce Blakeman
|
Kalshi
|
A
92.9%
|
B
7.1%
|
+85.75%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
KH
Kathy Hochul
|
BB
Bruce Blakeman
|
Gemini
|
A
93.0%
|
B
7.5%
|
+85.50%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
GA
Greg Abbott
Vol —
Spread 69.0%
Agg
78.5%
— +0.0%
Republican Party
U
81.0%
K
78.5%
G
12.0%
GH
Gina Hinojosa
Vol —
Spread 11.0%
Agg
20.5%
↓ -2.0%
Democratic Party
U
23.0%
K
20.5%
G
12.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GA
Greg Abbott
Republican Party
|
78.5%
— +0.0%
|
69.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
78.5%
|
Polymarket US
81.0%
|
Gemini
12.0%
|
|
GH
Gina Hinojosa
Democratic Party
|
20.5%
↓ -2.0%
|
11.0%
|
—
|
Kalshi
20.5%
|
Polymarket US
23.0%
|
Gemini
12.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GA
Greg Abbott
Republican Party
|
Gemini
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ G
12¢
|
Sell @ U
80¢
|
+68.00%
|
+67.95%
|
Yes
|
|
|
GH
Gina Hinojosa
Democratic Party
|
Gemini
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ G
12¢
|
Sell @ U
22¢
|
+10.00%
|
+9.95%
|
Yes
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GA
Greg Abbott
|
GH
Gina Hinojosa
|
Kalshi
|
A
78.5%
|
B
20.5%
|
+58.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
GA
Greg Abbott
|
GH
Gina Hinojosa
|
Polymarket US
|
A
81.0%
|
B
23.0%
|
+58.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
JL
Joe Lombardo
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
55.5%
↑ +1.0%
Republican Party
U
57.0%
K
55.5%
AF
Aaron Ford
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
46.5%
— +0.0%
Democratic Party
K
46.5%
U
45.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JL
Joe Lombardo
Republican Party
|
55.5%
↑ +1.0%
|
1.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
55.5%
|
Polymarket US
57.0%
|
|
AF
Aaron Ford
Democratic Party
|
46.5%
— +0.0%
|
1.5%
|
—
|
Kalshi
46.5%
|
Polymarket US
45.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AF
Aaron Ford
Democratic Party
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
45¢
|
Sell @ K
46¢
|
+1.00%
|
+0.54%
|
No
|
|
|
JL
Joe Lombardo
Republican Party
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
56¢
|
Sell @ U
56¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.56%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JL
Joe Lombardo
|
AF
Aaron Ford
|
Polymarket US
|
A
57.0%
|
B
45.0%
|
+12.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JL
Joe Lombardo
|
AF
Aaron Ford
|
Kalshi
|
A
55.5%
|
B
46.5%
|
+9.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Who will advance from California's gov primary
Aggregated cross-platform odds for Who will advance from California's gov primary. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.
Probability Over Time
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Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
SH
Steve Hilton
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
↑ +52.5%
K
100.0%
XB
Xavier Becerra
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
↑ +90.5%
K
100.0%
AV
Antonio Villaraigosa
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -6.0%
K
0.0%
BY
Betty Yee
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -7.0%
K
0.0%
CB
Chad Bianco
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -39.5%
K
0.0%
EK
Eleni Kounalakis
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -1.5%
K
0.0%
ES
Eric Swalwell
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -67.0%
K
0.0%
EA
Ethan Agarwal
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -2.0%
K
0.0%
KH
Kamala Harris
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -4.0%
K
0.0%
KP
Katie Porter
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -27.5%
K
0.0%
MM
Matt Mahan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -19.5%
K
0.0%
RC
Rick Caruso
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -1.0%
K
0.0%
RB
Rob Bonta
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -1.5%
K
0.0%
TS
Tom Steyer
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -21.0%
K
0.0%
TT
Tony Thurmond
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -5.0%
K
0.0%
WSH
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
P
100.0%
WXB
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
P
100.0%
WAV
Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WBY
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WBJ
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WBW
Will Butch Ware advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WCB
Will Carolina Buhler advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WCB
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WCA
Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WDM
Will Daniel Mercuri advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WDS
Will David Serpa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WDT
Will David Thelen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WDG
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WDC
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WES
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WEA
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WIC
Will Ian Calderon advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WJA
Will Javen Allen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WJP
Will Jimmy Parker advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WKP
Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WKL
Will Kyle Langford advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WLJ
Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WLZ
Will Leo Zacky advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WMM
Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WNT
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WNM
Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WRR
Will Raji Rab advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WRR
Will Ramsey Robinson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WRT
Will Ryan Tillman advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WSH
Will Sharifah Hardie advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WSB
Will Sophia Brink advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WTP
Will Thunder Parley advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WTS
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WTT
Will Tony Thurmond advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
WZI
Will Zoltan Istvan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SH
Steve Hilton
|
100.0%
↑ +52.5%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
XB
Xavier Becerra
|
100.0%
↑ +90.5%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
AV
Antonio Villaraigosa
|
0.0%
↓ -6.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
BY
Betty Yee
|
0.0%
↓ -7.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
CB
Chad Bianco
|
0.0%
↓ -39.5%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
EK
Eleni Kounalakis
|
0.0%
↓ -1.5%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
ES
Eric Swalwell
|
0.0%
↓ -67.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
EA
Ethan Agarwal
|
0.0%
↓ -2.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
0.0%
↓ -4.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
KP
Katie Porter
|
0.0%
↓ -27.5%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
MM
Matt Mahan
|
0.0%
↓ -19.5%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
RC
Rick Caruso
|
0.0%
↓ -1.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
RB
Rob Bonta
|
0.0%
↓ -1.5%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
TS
Tom Steyer
|
0.0%
↓ -21.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
TT
Tony Thurmond
|
0.0%
↓ -5.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
WSH
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
WXB
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
WAV
Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WBY
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WBJ
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WBW
Will Butch Ware advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WCB
Will Carolina Buhler advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WCB
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WCA
Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WDM
Will Daniel Mercuri advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WDS
Will David Serpa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WDT
Will David Thelen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WDG
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WDC
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WES
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WEA
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WIC
Will Ian Calderon advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WJA
Will Javen Allen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WJP
Will Jimmy Parker advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WKP
Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WKL
Will Kyle Langford advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WLJ
Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WLZ
Will Leo Zacky advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WMM
Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WNT
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WNM
Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WRR
Will Raji Rab advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WRR
Will Ramsey Robinson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WRT
Will Ryan Tillman advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WSH
Will Sharifah Hardie advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WSB
Will Sophia Brink advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WTP
Will Thunder Parley advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WTS
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WTT
Will Tony Thurmond advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
WZI
Will Zoltan Istvan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
No cross-venue pairs available for this event.
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SH
Steve Hilton
|
AV
Antonio Villaraigosa
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SH
Steve Hilton
|
BY
Betty Yee
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SH
Steve Hilton
|
CB
Chad Bianco
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SH
Steve Hilton
|
EK
Eleni Kounalakis
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SH
Steve Hilton
|
ES
Eric Swalwell
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SH
Steve Hilton
|
EA
Ethan Agarwal
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SH
Steve Hilton
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
SH
Steve Hilton
|
KP
Katie Porter
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
XB
Xavier Becerra
|
AV
Antonio Villaraigosa
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
XB
Xavier Becerra
|
BY
Betty Yee
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
XB
Xavier Becerra
|
CB
Chad Bianco
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
XB
Xavier Becerra
|
EK
Eleni Kounalakis
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
XB
Xavier Becerra
|
ES
Eric Swalwell
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
XB
Xavier Becerra
|
EA
Ethan Agarwal
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
XB
Xavier Becerra
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
XB
Xavier Becerra
|
KP
Katie Porter
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WSH
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WAV
Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WSH
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WBY
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WSH
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WBJ
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WSH
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WBW
Will Butch Ware advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WSH
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WCB
Will Carolina Buhler advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WSH
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WCB
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WSH
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WCA
Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WSH
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WDM
Will Daniel Mercuri advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WXB
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WAV
Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WXB
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WBY
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WXB
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WBJ
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WXB
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WBW
Will Butch Ware advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WXB
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WCB
Will Carolina Buhler advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
WXB
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
WCB
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Resolved: Becerra and Hilton advanced from California's top-two primary
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
AV
Antonio Villaraigosa
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -3.5%
K
0.0%
EK
Eleni Kounalakis
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -0.4%
K
0.0%
KH
Kamala Harris
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -0.4%
K
0.0%
RC
Rick Caruso
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -0.4%
K
0.0%
RB
Rob Bonta
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
↓ -0.4%
K
0.0%
SH
Steve Hilton
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
P
100.0%
XB
Xavier Becerra
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
P
100.0%
BY
Betty Yee
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
BJ
Brandon Jones
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
BW
Butch Ware
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
CB
Carolina Buhler
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
CB
Chad Bianco
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
CA
Ché Ahn
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
DM
Daniel Mercuri
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
DS
David Serpa
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
DT
David Thelen
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
DG
Derek Grasty
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
DC
Dylan Colbert
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
EC
Elaine Culotti
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
ES
Eric Swalwell
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
EA
Ethan Agarwal
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
IC
Ian Calderon
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
JA
Javen Allen
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
JP
Jimmy Parker
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
KP
Katie Porter
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
KL
Kyle Langford
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
LJ
Leonard Jackson
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
LZ
Leo Zacky
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
MM
Matt Mahan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
NM
Nicki Minaj
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
RR
Raji Rab
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
RR
Ramsey Robinson
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
RT
Ryan Tillman
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
SH
Sharifah Hardie
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
SB
Sophia Brink
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
TP
Thunder Parley
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
TS
Tom Steyer
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
TT
Tony Thurmond
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
ZI
Zoltan Istvan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AV
Antonio Villaraigosa
|
0.0%
↓ -3.5%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
EK
Eleni Kounalakis
|
0.0%
↓ -0.4%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
0.0%
↓ -0.4%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
RC
Rick Caruso
|
0.0%
↓ -0.4%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
RB
Rob Bonta
|
0.0%
↓ -0.4%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
SH
Steve Hilton
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
XB
Xavier Becerra
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
BY
Betty Yee
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
BJ
Brandon Jones
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
BW
Butch Ware
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
CB
Carolina Buhler
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
CB
Chad Bianco
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
CA
Ché Ahn
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
DM
Daniel Mercuri
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
DS
David Serpa
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
DT
David Thelen
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
DG
Derek Grasty
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
DC
Dylan Colbert
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
EC
Elaine Culotti
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
ES
Eric Swalwell
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
EA
Ethan Agarwal
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
IC
Ian Calderon
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
JA
Javen Allen
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
JP
Jimmy Parker
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
KP
Katie Porter
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
KL
Kyle Langford
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
LJ
Leonard Jackson
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
LZ
Leo Zacky
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
MM
Matt Mahan
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
NM
Nicki Minaj
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
RR
Raji Rab
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
RR
Ramsey Robinson
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
RT
Ryan Tillman
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
SH
Sharifah Hardie
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
SB
Sophia Brink
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
TP
Thunder Parley
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
TS
Tom Steyer
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
TT
Tony Thurmond
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
ZI
Zoltan Istvan
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Resolved: One Democrat and one Republican advanced
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
1DA
1 Democrat and 1 Republican
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
P
100.0%
2D
2 Democrats
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
2R
2 Republicans
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1DA
1 Democrat and 1 Republican
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
2D
2 Democrats
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
2R
2 Republicans
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Texas Senate Republican Runoff Odds & Predictions
The US Senate Republican runoff between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn ends May 26, with early voting already underway. James Talarico cleared 50% on the Democratic side, defeating Jasmine Crockett and taking the Senate nomination outright. Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19, one week before voting ends, after staying neutral for months, and the latest University of Houston poll has Paxton at 48% to Cornyn's 45%, inside the margin of error. Ken Paxton has a 100.0% chance of winning. Spending has surpassed $122 million for this intraparty battle, a tight race between the traditional GOP establishment and the MAGA wing. In the governor's race, incumbent Greg Abbott won the Republican primary while state Rep. Gina Hinojosa earned the Democratic nod. Our Paxton vs. Cornyn odds tracker aggregates live public pricing from Kalshi and Polymarket, updated hourly.
Texas Republican Senate Odds: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
KP
Ken Paxton
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
P
100.0%
JC
John Cornyn
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
KP
Ken Paxton
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
—
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
JC
John Cornyn
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
—
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Odds on Georgia Primary Senate Republican Winner
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
BR
Brad Raffensperger
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
—
K
0.0%
BK
Brian Kemp
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
—
K
0.0%
BC
Buddy Carter
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
—
K
0.0%
JK
John King
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
—
K
0.0%
MTG
Marjorie Taylor-Greene
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
—
K
0.0%
RM
Rich McCormick
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
—
K
0.0%
MC
Mike Collins
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
P
100.0%
CLC
Christina Loren Clement
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
CLF
Christoph La'Flare Chapman
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
DD
Derek Dooley
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
EC
Earl Carter
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
JM
Jonathan McColumn
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
RB
Reagan Box
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
RT
Rick Temple
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
VW
Vinson Watkins
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
P
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BR
Brad Raffensperger
|
0.0%
—
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
BK
Brian Kemp
|
0.0%
—
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
BC
Buddy Carter
|
0.0%
—
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
JK
John King
|
0.0%
—
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
MTG
Marjorie Taylor-Greene
|
0.0%
—
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
RM
Rich McCormick
|
0.0%
—
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
MC
Mike Collins
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
CLC
Christina Loren Clement
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
CLF
Christoph La'Flare Chapman
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
DD
Derek Dooley
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
EC
Earl Carter
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
JM
Jonathan McColumn
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
RB
Reagan Box
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
RT
Rick Temple
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
|
VW
Vinson Watkins
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Florida Republican Governor Primary Odds: Byron Donalds at 100.0% to Win
With Florida's Republican governor primary four days away, Byron Donalds is the overwhelming favorite at 100.0% across Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Gemini. Casey DeSantis is the nearest challenger at 0.0%, while Charles Burkett sits at 0.0%. The market has drawn $0 in tracked trading volume. DeFi Rate aggregates live odds from the four exchanges and refreshes this market hourly as the August 18 primary approaches.
Top prediction apps to trade on Florida Republican Primary race
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Risk Disclaimer
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
BD
Byron Donalds
Vol $0
Spread 0.0%
Agg
100.0%
Settled
K
100.0%
P
100.0%
U
100.0%
CD
Casey DeSantis
Vol $0
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
CB
Charles Burkett
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
JF
James Fishback
Vol $0
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
U
0.0%
JC
Jay Collins
Vol $0
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
U
0.0%
JP
Jimmy Patronis
Vol $0
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
MG
Matt Gaetz
Vol $0
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
PR
Paul Renner
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
WS
Wilton Simpson
Vol $0
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
100.0%
Settled
|
0.0%
|
$0
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
Polymarket US
100.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
|
CD
Casey DeSantis
|
0.0%
Settled
|
0.0%
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
|
CB
Charles Burkett
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
|
JF
James Fishback
|
0.0%
Settled
|
0.0%
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
|
JC
Jay Collins
|
0.0%
Settled
|
0.0%
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Polymarket US
0.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
|
JP
Jimmy Patronis
|
0.0%
Settled
|
0.0%
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
|
MG
Matt Gaetz
|
0.0%
Settled
|
0.0%
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
|
PR
Paul Renner
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
|
WS
Wilton Simpson
|
0.0%
Settled
|
0.0%
|
$0
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
—
|
Byron Donalds Probability to Win Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US
|
Buy @ K
100¢
|
Sell @ U
100¢
|
+0.00%
|
+0.00%
|
No
|
|
|
JF
James Fishback
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
0¢
|
Sell @ K
0¢
|
+0.00%
|
+0.00%
|
No
|
|
|
JC
Jay Collins
|
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ U
0¢
|
Sell @ K
0¢
|
+0.00%
|
+0.00%
|
No
|
|
|
CD
Casey DeSantis
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.1¢
|
Sell @ K
0¢
|
-0.10%
|
-0.10%
|
No
|
|
|
JP
Jimmy Patronis
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.1¢
|
Sell @ K
0¢
|
-0.10%
|
-0.10%
|
No
|
|
|
MG
Matt Gaetz
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.1¢
|
Sell @ K
0¢
|
-0.10%
|
-0.10%
|
No
|
|
|
WS
Wilton Simpson
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.1¢
|
Sell @ K
0¢
|
-0.10%
|
-0.10%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
CD
Casey DeSantis
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
CB
Charles Burkett
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
JF
James Fishback
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
JC
Jay Collins
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
JP
Jimmy Patronis
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
MG
Matt Gaetz
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
PR
Paul Renner
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
WS
Wilton Simpson
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
CD
Casey DeSantis
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
JF
James Fishback
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
JC
Jay Collins
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
JP
Jimmy Patronis
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
MG
Matt Gaetz
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
WS
Wilton Simpson
|
Polymarket
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
JF
James Fishback
|
Polymarket US
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
BD
Byron Donalds
|
JC
Jay Collins
|
Polymarket US
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Odds: Darline Graham Leads
South Carolina’s Republican Senate special primary remains unresolved after the initial field narrowed. Darline Graham currently leads at 100.0%, with Ralph Norman at 0.0%. DeFi Rate aggregates live Kalshi pricing through the runoff and certification process.
Top prediction apps to trade on the South Carolina Senate primary
Trade $10, Get $25
T&C’s apply.
Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus
Risk Disclaimer
Current South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DG
Darline Graham
Vol $4.0M
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
K
100.0%
RN
Ralph Norman
Vol $3.3M
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DG
Darline Graham
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$4.0M
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
|
RN
Ralph Norman
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$3.3M
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Odds Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
No cross-venue pairs available for this event.
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DG
Darline Graham
|
RN
Ralph Norman
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
James Fishback Florida Primary Vote Share Odds
This threshold board tracks James Fishback’s certified vote share in Florida’s August 18 Republican governor primary. At least 1% is currently priced at 100.0%, with the remaining thresholds showing how traders price each vote-share level. DeFi Rate aggregates live Kalshi pricing until the primary vote is certified.
Top prediction apps to trade on the Florida governor primary
Trade $10, Get $25
T&C’s apply.
Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus
Risk Disclaimer
James Fishback Florida Primary Vote Share Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
AL1
At least 1%
Vol $113
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
K
100.0%
AL1
At least 10%
Vol $38
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
K
100.0%
AL3
At least 3%
Vol $50
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
K
100.0%
AL5
At least 5%
Vol $105
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
K
100.0%
AL6
At least 6%
Vol $35
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
K
100.0%
AL7
At least 7%
Vol $54
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
K
100.0%
AL8
At least 8%
Vol $37
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
K
100.0%
AL9
At least 9%
Vol $25
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
Settled
K
100.0%
AL1
At least 11%
Vol $547
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
AL1
At least 12%
Vol $216
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
AL1
At least 13%
Vol $79
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
AL1
At least 14%
Vol $101
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
AL1
At least 15%
Vol $196
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
AL2
At least 20%
Vol $30.3K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
AL3
At least 30%
Vol $154
Spread —
Agg
0.0%
Settled
K
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AL1
At least 1%
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$113
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
|
AL1
At least 10%
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$38
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
|
AL3
At least 3%
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$50
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
|
AL5
At least 5%
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$105
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
|
AL6
At least 6%
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$35
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
|
AL7
At least 7%
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$54
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
|
AL8
At least 8%
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$37
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
|
AL9
At least 9%
|
100.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$25
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
|
AL1
At least 11%
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$547
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
|
AL1
At least 12%
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$216
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
|
AL1
At least 13%
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$79
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
|
AL1
At least 14%
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$101
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
|
AL1
At least 15%
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$196
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
|
AL2
At least 20%
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$30.3K
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
|
AL3
At least 30%
|
0.0%
Settled
|
—
|
$154
|
Kalshi
0.0%
|
James Fishback Vote Share Probabilities Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
No cross-venue pairs available for this event.
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AL1
At least 1%
|
AL1
At least 11%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL1
At least 1%
|
AL1
At least 12%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL1
At least 10%
|
AL1
At least 11%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL1
At least 10%
|
AL1
At least 12%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL3
At least 3%
|
AL1
At least 11%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL3
At least 3%
|
AL1
At least 12%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL5
At least 5%
|
AL1
At least 11%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL5
At least 5%
|
AL1
At least 12%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL6
At least 6%
|
AL1
At least 11%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL6
At least 6%
|
AL1
At least 12%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL7
At least 7%
|
AL1
At least 11%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL7
At least 7%
|
AL1
At least 12%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL8
At least 8%
|
AL1
At least 11%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL8
At least 8%
|
AL1
At least 12%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL9
At least 9%
|
AL1
At least 11%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AL9
At least 9%
|
AL1
At least 12%
|
Kalshi
|
A
100.0%
|
B
0.0%
|
+100.00%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
How to bet on the 2026 US midterm elections
Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-ch...
Pat Evans
Pat Evans has nearly two decades of experience covering complex industries. Before joining Defi Rate in 2026, he spent more than 15 years writing about sports betting, food and beverage, construction, health care and spo...
If you want to bet on the 2026 US midterms, prediction markets let you put money on outcomes ranging from which party controls the House and Senate to individual Senate races, House seats, governors and other election results. Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini all have US election markets available for the 2026 cycle.
You'll see people call these election bets, odds, contracts or trades. The terminology changes depending on the platform, but the idea is fairly easy to follow. You choose an election outcome, buy it at the current market price and either sell the position later or hold it until the market settles.
Prices also give you a quick read on what traders think is likely to happen. If a candidate is trading at 60¢, that translates to roughly a 60% chance according to the market. If you think the real probability is higher or lower, you can take a position accordingly.
2026 midterm betting at a glance
- What you can bet on: House control, Senate control, individual races, governors, seat totals, margins and other election outcomes.
- Where you can trade: Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini are among the US platforms offering political markets.
- How pricing works: A contract trading at 60¢ represents roughly a 60% market probability.
- Winning payout: A correct contract typically settles at $1; an incorrect one settles at $0.
- Before Election Day: You generally don't have to hold until settlement. Positions can be sold earlier when there is a market for them.
How election betting works
Most election markets are built around a straightforward question. It might be "Which party will win the US Senate?", "Will James Talarico win the Texas Senate election?" or "Which party will control both chambers of Congress?" Those types of 2026 contracts are already trading.
On platforms such as Kalshi and Gemini, contracts generally trade between $0 and $1. If the contract you hold settles as correct, it pays $1. If it settles as incorrect, it pays $0.
Take the Texas Senate race as a working example. Suppose James Talarico is trading at 60¢ when you place your trade. If you buy 100 contracts, the position costs $60. If Talarico wins and your contracts settle at $1 each, you receive $100, leaving a $40 profit before fees. If he loses, those contracts settle at $0 and the $60 you spent on the position is lost.
You could also decide not to wait for the election. Suppose you bought at 60¢ and the price later climbed to 75¢. If there are buyers available, you could sell the position at the prevailing price and take the difference rather than waiting for the final result. That ability to move in and out of a position is one reason election-market users often talk about what they're doing as both betting and trading.
How to use our midterm odds
Our 2026 Midterms Oddsboard is built to save you from opening several prediction-market apps and searching for the same election on each one.
The board organizes markets into National, House, Senate, Governors and Primaries. You can start with the national picture - such as control of Congress - or move directly into an individual race.
Each market card shows the available outcomes and the prices we can match across the prediction markets we track.
- Outcome: The candidate, party or result the contract is tied to.
- Platform prices: You can see how the same outcome is priced on exchanges such as Kalshi, Polymarket US and other supported venues when a comparable contract is available.
- Search: Type a candidate, state or race to narrow the board rather than scrolling through every election market.
- Expanded markets: Markets with a large field of candidates or outcomes can be opened to see the rest of the available choices.
This becomes particularly useful when two prediction markets don't agree. A candidate might be priced at 58¢ on one exchange and 61¢ on another. We keep those numbers separate instead of averaging them into one number. You can see where each market is trading and decide which price is relevant to you.
Some elections will only appear on one exchange. Others, particularly larger Senate or national markets, can be available across several venues.
Where our midterm odds come from
We use first-party exchange data from the prediction markets we track. We don't create the election probabilities ourselves, and we don't adjust a price because our editorial team thinks a candidate is more or less likely to win.
We keep venue-level pricing identifiable instead of turning several exchange prices into one editorial forecast. That means when Kalshi, Polymarket US or another supported market shows a different price, you can see the difference rather than an average that hides it.
Our Midterms Oddsboard refreshes prices regularly throughout the day. Because these are live markets, the price you see on our board can move before you reach the exchange, particularly around a new poll, primary result, debate, endorsement or other campaign news.
There is another reason we keep the exchanges separate: not every platform structures an apparently similar election market in exactly the same way. Before placing a trade, open the underlying market and read its settlement rules.
How to trade on the US midterm elections
Once you find a market you want to trade, the process is usually only a few steps.
- Find the race on our oddsboard. Search for the candidate, state or election you want to follow and compare the available prices.
- Choose the market. Look at which exchanges list the outcome and the price available on each one.
- Open the underlying contract. Before putting money down, check the wording of the market and its settlement rules.
- Choose your position. Depending on the market, you may be buying Yes or No, choosing a candidate, selecting a party or picking from several possible outcomes.
- Enter your amount. The platform will show the cost of the position and its potential payout before you submit the order.
- Hold or sell. You can keep the position through settlement or try to sell earlier at the available market price.
One thing that catches newer users is that the number you see on screen isn't always the exact price at which a large order will fill. These are markets with buyers and sellers. In a thinner election market, there may only be a limited number of contracts available at the quoted price.
Kalshi, for example, describes its market as matching participants taking different sides of a contract, with makers posting orders and takers accepting them. See Kalshi's explanation
Why election odds are different on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini
There is no requirement for the different prediction markets to show the same price. Kalshi might have a candidate at 58%, while another exchange has the same outcome at 61%. Different traders, order books, liquidity and available prices can create a gap between them.
That doesn't necessarily mean one exchange has the "correct" number. It simply means participants are currently willing to trade the outcome at different prices.
This is where comparing markets becomes useful. Rather than seeing "Candidate A: 60%" with no context, our board lets you see the individual exchange prices behind that number.
Liquidity matters too. A heavily traded national market can have tight pricing and plenty of contracts available. A smaller House race may have fewer participants, a wider spread and larger price movements when someone places a substantial order.
What can you bet on during the 2026 midterms?
The 2026 election market is much broader than simply betting on whether Democrats or Republicans win Congress. Current exchanges carry markets covering House control, Senate control, balance of power, individual House and Senate winners, governor races, seat totals and other outcomes.
- House control: Which party controls the House after the election.
- Senate control: Which party controls the Senate.
- Balance of power: The combination of parties controlling the House and Senate.
- Individual races: Who wins a specific House or Senate seat.
- Governor races: Which candidate wins a state's gubernatorial election.
- Seat totals: How many seats a party will hold after the midterms.
- Margins: The winning margin or national House popular-vote margin.
- Primaries: Who wins a party nomination before the general election.
For example, Kalshi's current midterms hub includes House and Senate control alongside individual races, while Polymarket US lists national balance-of-power markets and state-level election contracts.
Election odds can move quickly
You aren't locking in a permanent probability when you buy a contract. If you pay 45¢ today, the same outcome might trade at 35¢ or 70¢ later. Polling, campaign news, fundraising, withdrawals, court decisions, primary results and activity within the market itself can all move the price.
That's also why you should separate price from result. A contract moving from 40¢ to 60¢ does not mean the election is decided. It means the market price has changed as buyers and sellers reassess the outcome.
Read the rules before putting money down
The market title is not enough. Election contracts contain specific rules covering what result counts, which source will be used and when the contract can settle. That becomes important if there is a recount, runoff, tie or delayed certification.
Polymarket US's 2026 balance-of-power market spells out how House and Senate control will be determined and includes rules for independents, runoffs and ambiguous chamber control.
So don't assume a cable-news projection means you've won. The contract settles according to its own rules.
US election betting and prediction market regulation
Election contracts in the US are offered through federally regulated prediction-market exchanges. Kalshi, Gemini Titan and QCX LLC, which operates as Polymarket US, are listed by the CFTC as designated contract markets.
The regulatory path for election markets has been contested. The CFTC disapproved Kalshi's congressional-control contracts in 2023, and a federal district court later vacated that order in 2024. The subsequent appeal was dismissed in 2025.
Those disputes now focus as much on market integrity as access. Ahead of the 2026 elections, CFTC Chair Mike Selig warned that efforts to move political-market prices artificially could trigger manipulation cases. The Senate has barred senators and staff from prediction markets, reflecting concern that officials could profit from information or outcomes they influence.
There are still broader federal-versus-state disputes around prediction markets, and availability can depend on the exchange, product and jurisdiction. For the reader, the practical point is simpler: check whether the specific platform and market are available to you before funding an account.
FAQ
Yes. Prediction markets currently offer real-money contracts on the 2026 US midterms, including control of the House and Senate, individual congressional races, governors and other election outcomes.
US election markets are available through platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini Predictions. The exact races and contracts available differ by platform.
A contract trading at 60¢ can be read as roughly a 60% market probability. If a qualifying contract settles correctly, it pays $1; otherwise it settles at $0.
At 60¢ per contract, $60 buys 100 contracts. If those contracts settle at $1, you receive $100 and make $40 before fees. If the outcome loses, the contracts settle at $0.
You can generally sell a prediction-market position before the contract resolves, assuming there is enough liquidity and someone willing to take the other side at the available price.
Each exchange has its own participants and order book. Differences in liquidity, buying and selling activity and available orders can result in different prices for the same political outcome.
No. A poll measures responses from a sample of voters. A prediction-market price reflects where participants are currently willing to buy and sell a contract tied to the election outcome. A candidate trading at 60¢ does not mean 60% of voters support that candidate.
No. If the market price moves after you enter the position, you may be able to sell before the election and realize a gain or loss. Your ability to exit, and the price you receive, depends on available liquidity.
It depends on the contract. Some election markets explicitly include any applicable runoff, tiebreak or other procedure in determining the winner. Always check the individual market rules before trading.
The exchange follows the resolution conditions written into the contract, including its specified official source. This can mean settlement takes longer when an election result is not yet final.
No. We aggregate first-party pricing from the prediction markets we track and display the venue-level prices so you can compare them in one place.
Our Midterms Oddsboard is updated hourly, so the numbers can change throughout the day as the underlying prediction markets move. Always check the live exchange price before placing an order.
Latest election news
Michigan Senate Markets Give El-Sayed Significant Edge as Polling Shows a Dead Heat
More than $5.7 million has traded across Kalshi and Polymarket on Michigan’s open Senate race, with both platforms putting Abdul El-Sayed in the low- to mid-60s. But a new Detroit-area poll gives Republican Mike Rogers a narrow lead, underscoring how far prediction-market confidence has moved ahead of the conventional view in a race central to Senate control.
Kalshi Sees Democrats Holding New Hampshire Senate Seat Despite Toss-Up Talk
Chris Pappas and John E. Sununu easily cleared their primaries Tuesday, setting up one of November’s most consequential Senate races. The conventional political view calls New Hampshire a tight, must-win Democratic hold. Kalshi traders disagree, at least for now, giving the Democrat an 84% chance on nearly $400,000 in trading volume.
Texas Senate Race Continues To Trade Like a Toss-Up as Paxton Holds a Thin Kalshi Edge
More than $10.6 million has traded on Kalshi’s Texas Senate market since the race turned competitive in August, while Polymarket traders now narrowly favor Democrat James Talarico. The split-screen comes as Republicans, including Sen. Ted Cruz, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and President Donald Trump, publicly acknowledge that Texas is no longer a race they can take for granted.
Over $106M Has Been Traded on LA’s Mayor Race as Bass Holds a Narrowing Edge
More than $100 million has traded on Kalshi’s Los Angeles mayor market, where Karen Bass remains near 65%.
Challenger Nithya Raman is gaining ground, has just secured the endorsement of the local Democratic Socialists of America chapter, and is running in a city where the general election is less a fight over party than a fight over what kind of Democrat gets to run Los Angeles.
AOC and Ossoff Overtake Newsom in 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Prediction Markets as Money Floods In
The 2028 Democratic primary market is becoming a three-way race, but Gavin Newsom is no longer leading it. With $194 million now traded on Kalshi and nearly $1.3 billion on Polymarket, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff have surged past the California governor, an early sign that traders are pricing a Democratic future less defined by the old establishment and more by the party’s progressive and battleground-state wings.
Prediction Markets Call Trump Candidate Wins In South Carolina and Oklahoma Runoffs, Margins Show His Grip Still Has Limits
Trump-backed Darline Graham Nordone and Mike Mazzei both won Tuesday’s Republican runoffs, validating the markets that continued to price each as the favorite after shaky first-round performances. But Graham’s earlier failure to clear 50% in deep-red South Carolina, and Mazzei’s 0.6-point Oklahoma win after finishing second in the first round, show that Trump’s endorsement remains powerful without making his candidates invincible.