2026 Midterm Election Odds Democrats are favored to win both chambers in Tuesday’s midterms

Where do the Senate and House races stand?

Polls are open today, and the markets have Democrats firmly ahead for the House and clearly ahead for the Senate. As of 7:15 a.m. Eastern on November 3, Kalshi had Democrats at 94% for the House and 77% for the Senate, Polymarket had 94.5% and 77.5%, and Polymarket US had 94.4% and 76.7%. The Senate is up about three points on Kalshi from 74% at noon on November 2 and from 65% on October 21; the House has held at 94%. The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Georgia’s close at 7 p.m. Eastern, and Maine’s, Michigan’s and most of Texas’s at 8 p.m., according to 270toWin’s closing times. The markets keep trading live as results come in tonight and settle on the official result. The final national polls point the same way: an I&I/TIPP poll released November 2 had Democrats ahead 52% to 42% on the generic ballot among likely voters.

In the last week of October, the Senate gains came from several states at once. On Kalshi, the Democrat in Kansas rose from 40% to 63% over the seven days to November 2, Jackson in Maine from 60% to 73%, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan from 66% to 78%, and Iowa’s Turek ten points to 52%, the closest Senate race on the board. Texas’s Talarico reached 76%.

The sections below give the October background. The House had barely moved in the markets. Democrats were at 90% to win the chamber on Kalshi at DeFi Rate’s October 14 check and 91% on October 21, and the polls have given traders no reason to reprice. NBC News’s polling average, presented on Meet the Press on October 18, has Democrats ahead 52% to 43% among likely voters and President Trump’s approval at 39%. The Cook Political Report moved 18 House races toward Democrats on October 9 and projected a Democratic gain of nine to 19 seats. Democrats need a net gain of three.

The Senate is where the week’s money went. Democrats’ chance of control rose from 62% on Kalshi and 63.5% on Polymarket at the October 14 check to 65% on both venues by October 21, and the move came almost entirely from Maine. Kalshi had Troy Jackson at 58% against Susan Collins on October 14 and 64% a week later, a seven-point gain on the daily closes. The polls behind it are narrow. InsiderAdvantage’s October 16 poll of 1,200 likely voters had Jackson at 49% and Collins at 47%, and the polling average on October 20 had him up by about two. The late polls widened it: by November 2 the same average had Jackson ahead 50.4% to 45.6%, and a New York Times/Siena poll taken October 27 to November 1 had him up 51% to 45%. Trafalgar Group’s October 21 to 23 poll still had the race tied at 47%.

Texas moved in the polls but not in the market. A CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,492 registered voters, taken October 8 to 16, had James Talarico at 51% and Ken Paxton at 49%, and Marist’s October survey, taken October 8 to 11, had him up 47% to 45% among likely voters. Kalshi had Talarico at 64% on October 14 and 64% on October 21, so traders had already priced a Democratic lead before the polls confirmed it.

The Ohio special election moved more on less: Sherrod Brown went from 60% to 65% on Kalshi over the week ahead of Barack Obama’s October 24 rally in Cleveland.

The Republican case rests on the polls being wrong in the same direction again. Trafalgar Group polls taken October 9 and 10 had Democrats ahead in five of the eight most competitive races, with Republicans ahead in South Carolina and Maine tied. On October 19, Fox News’s Bret Baier, working from RealClearPolitics averages, laid out a scenario in which a two- to three-point polling miss leaves Republicans at 52-48. The markets gave that outcome about a one-in-three chance on October 21, when Republicans were at 35% to hold the Senate; by November 2 Republicans were at about 26% on Kalshi.

Latest updates

• November 3, 2026 (checked 7:15 a.m. Eastern): Election Day, with polls open. Democrats have a 77% chance to win the Senate (Kalshi 77%, Polymarket 77.5%, Polymarket US 76.7%) and a 94% chance to win the House (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 94.5%, Polymarket US 94.4%). The Senate is up about three points on Kalshi from November 2; the House is unchanged. The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern, and the markets keep trading as results come in. Prices checked by DeFi Rate from each market’s live data.
• November 2, 2026 (checked 12:00 p.m. Eastern): the day before the election, Democrats have a 74% chance to win the Senate (Kalshi 74%, Polymarket 74%, Polymarket US 74%) and a 94% chance to win the House (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 95%, Polymarket US 95%). Over seven days of Kalshi closes, Kansas’s Democrat rose 23 points to 63%, Maine’s Jackson 13 to 73%, Michigan’s El-Sayed 12 to 78% and Iowa’s Turek 10 to 52%. Late Maine polls had Jackson ahead, including New York Times/Siena at 51% to 45%. Prices checked by DeFi Rate from each market’s live data.
• October 21, 2026 (checked 5:42 a.m. Eastern): Democrats have 65% probability to win the Senate (Kalshi 65%, Polymarket 64.5%) and 91% chance to win the House. Over seven days of Kalshi closes, Maine’s Jackson rose seven points to 64%, Ohio’s Brown five to 65% and Kansas’s Democrat three to 40%; Texas and Michigan were unchanged at 64% and 69%. Prices checked by DeFi Rate from each market’s live data.
• October 19, 2026: Bret Baier used RealClearPolitics averages to show Republicans holding the Senate 52-48 if their candidates outperform polls by two to three points, as in 2020 and 2024 (RealClearPolitics). Markets: Republicans were at 35% to hold the chamber, unchanged on the day.
• October 18, 2026: NBC News’s polling average put Democrats ahead 52% to 43% among likely voters on the generic ballot, with Trump’s approval at 39% (NBC News, via IBTimes). Markets: House control held at 91% for Democrats; a Democratic sweep was at 65% on Kalshi, up three points on the week.
• October 18, 2026: CBS News/YouGov’s Texas poll of 1,492 registered voters, taken October 8 to 16, had Talarico 51% and Paxton 49% (CBS News). Markets: Talarico unchanged at 64% on Kalshi and Polymarket, with $886K traded in 24 hours.
• October 16, 2026: InsiderAdvantage’s Maine poll of 1,200 likely voters had Jackson 49% and Collins 47% (InsiderAdvantage). Markets: Jackson rose from 58% on October 14 to 64% on October 21 on Kalshi, the biggest Senate move of the week.
• October 14, 2026: Marist’s Texas poll, taken October 8 to 11, had Talarico 47% and Paxton 45% among likely voters, down from a six-point lead a month earlier (Marist Poll). Markets: Talarico at 64% on Kalshi at DeFi Rate’s 5:12 p.m. Eastern check, the same price as a week later.
• October 13, 2026: a NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll taken October 5 to 9 had Democrats ahead 49% to 42% on the generic ballot among likely voters (The Hill). Markets: House control at 90% on Kalshi, up from 76% when the market opened on May 27.
• October 13, 2026: Senate debates in Maine, Georgia and Iowa (CNN). Markets: Jon Ossoff at 95% in Georgia after the debate; Iowa’s Turek moved from 41% to 44% on Kalshi over the following week.

How midterm prediction markets work

Each market asks a yes-or-no question, such as “Will Democrats control the Senate?” A contract pays $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if it’s no, so its price works as a probability: 64¢ means traders collectively put the chance at about 64%.

Take the Texas Senate race. If James Talarico trades at 58¢, 100 contracts cost $58. If he wins, they pay $100, a $42 profit before fees. If he loses, they’re worth nothing. You don’t have to hold until Election Day: if the price rises to 75¢ and someone is buying, you can sell early and keep the difference.

Before placing a trade, compare election trading apps for race coverage, fees and availability.

A price isn’t a poll. A candidate at 60¢ doesn’t have 60% of the vote; traders think they have about a 60% chance of winning.

What you can trade

• Chamber control: which party wins the House and the Senate.
• Balance of power: the four House/Senate combinations, such as a Democratic House with a Republican Senate.
• Individual races: the winner of a given Senate, House or governor race. The Georgia Senate and governor races illustrate how separate statewide winner markets work. For a state executive contest on the same November ballot, compare Iowa governor odds, Nevada governor odds, Ohio governor odds and Wisconsin governor odds; a governor result does not determine congressional control.
• Seat counts and margins: how many seats a party ends up with, or the national House popular-vote margin. The Blue Wave market is a separate seat-threshold question: at least 218 Democratic House seats and at least 49 Democratic Senate seats, not necessarily a Democratic Senate majority.

Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini are federally regulated US exchanges that offer these markets. Polymarket’s international exchange lists many of the same questions, but it isn’t available to US residents.

Why the venues show different prices

Nothing requires two exchanges to agree. Each has its own traders and order book, and some questions are built differently. Kalshi, for example, lists a single Senate-control contract, but the Kalshi figure on this page comes from adding two balance-of-power contracts, a Democratic sweep and a Democratic Senate with a Republican House. The source comparison shows every venue’s price next to ours, and labels which comparisons are like-for-like.

A gap isn’t free money. The displayed prices may not be available in size, fees reduce the difference, and the contracts may settle on slightly different terms.

Read the settlement rules

The market title isn’t the contract. Each one names its resolution source and says what happens after a recount, a runoff, a tie or a delayed certification. A network projection doesn’t settle anything. Every source record on this page links to the contract so you can read its rules before you trade.

How to trade midterm elections on Kalshi and Polymarket

The two chamber-control questions on this page are priced differently on each venue, so start by understanding the rules of the contract.

On Kalshi, House control is a single contract that pays $1 if Democrats (or Republicans) control the House, with early settlement allowed on a consensus of media projections and a February 1, 2027 fallback date. Kalshi also lists a single Senate-control contract, but the price on this page combines two balance-of-power contracts, a Democratic sweep and a Democratic Senate with a Republican House, so a Senate position on Kalshi is two orders and two taker fees. The Compare prices tool above shows the estimated fee for your order size.

On Polymarket, both House control and Senate control are single contracts that settle on the election result, with the Speaker’s party as the tiebreak if neither party reaches 218 seats. Polymarket’s international exchange isn’t open to US residents. Polymarket US, which is open to US traders, lists House control and Senate control as single winner markets, plus a balance-of-power market with the four combinations. As of 7:15 a.m. Eastern on November 3 it had Democrats at about 94% for the House and 77% for the Senate. Its prices are in the live board above, read straight from Polymarket US.

Here is how to place the trade:

1. Pick the market and your order size in Compare prices above. It shows each venue’s price to buy, the estimated fee and the payout if you’re right.
2. Open the contract on the venue and read the settlement rules. A network calling the chamber on election night does not settle a Kalshi contract that counts seats in February.
3. Enter your amount. In a thin market the quoted price may only be available for a few contracts, and a large order can fill higher.
4. Hold to settlement or sell before the result is settled at the market price if there is a buyer. Trading stays open today and on results night.

New traders can open with a bonus. The Kalshi promo code RATE pays a $55 bonus after your first $25 traded, and the Polymarket promo code RATE adds a $25 trading bonus on a $10 deposit. If you want to compare fees, state access and the other venues that list these markets, see our prediction market apps page.

Is election trading legal in the US?

Kalshi, Gemini Titan and QCX LLC (which operates Polymarket US) are designated contract markets registered with the CFTC. The CFTC disapproved Kalshi’s congressional-control contracts in 2023; a federal court vacated that decision in 2024, and the appeal was dismissed in 2025. The CFTC chair has since warned that attempts to move political markets artificially could bring manipulation cases, and the Senate has barred senators and staff from trading these markets. Availability can still vary by platform and state, so check before you fund an account.

For dated background on the ethics rule, our May 1, 2026 report explains the Senate’s prediction-market trading ban for senators and staff.

More midterm markets

Beyond which party controls each chamber, traders can bet on the size of the result. Prices below are from Kalshi as of November 2, 2026; each page has the live board.

• Senate seat predictions: the most likely Democratic result is more than 52 seats, at 53%.
• House seat predictions: the most likely Democratic result is more than 249 seats, at 31%.
• Generic ballot odds: a Democratic win of the national House vote by 8 to 10 points leads, at 28%.
• Maine and Texas: a Democratic sweep (Talarico and Jackson) is the most likely pair, at 68%.
• Blue wave odds: Democrats with 218 House and 49 Senate seats, at 88%.