Ohio Governor Election OddsOhio Governor Odds: Amy Acton (D) Leads

Most recent polls have Acton ahead in a state Trump carried three times. The New York Times/Siena poll of 616 likely voters, taken September 22–October 1 and released October 4, had her up 49% to 45%, and a CNN/SSRS poll of 760 likely voters, taken September 29–October 5 and released October 8, had her ahead 50% to 42%. Two polls released September 29 also showed Acton ahead: Suffolk University, taken September 23–27, had Acton up 50% to 41% among likely voters, and Marist, taken September 24–27, had her up 50% to 44% among registered voters. A co/efficient poll taken October 5–6 broke the streak, with Ramaswamy ahead 45% to 43% among likely voters, inside its margin of error of ±3.5 points. Newsweek reported that poll on October 8; we couldn't find the pollster's own release date.

Both parties are bringing in big names for the final weeks. Trump rallied in Youngstown on October 12 with Ramaswamy and Sen. Jon Husted, calling Ramaswamy a "great friend"; Ramaswamy promised to be "the most conservative governor this state has ever seen." Barack Obama will rally in Cleveland with Acton and Senate candidate Sherrod Brown on October 24, his first Ohio visit since 2018. Early voting began October 6, and Acton is closing with an ad about growing up poor in Youngstown.

The markets side with the polls. Checked at 3:12 p.m. Eastern on October 14, Acton's side last traded at 69% on Kalshi, and Polymarket's Democrats-win market sat at 71.5%, the midpoint between its 71¢ bid and 72¢ ask. The live table on this page updates through the day.

Latest updates

• October 14, 2026 (checked 3:12 p.m. Eastern): on Kalshi, Acton's side last traded at 69¢ (69%) and Ramaswamy's at 32¢. On Polymarket, the Democrats-win market's midpoint was 71.5% (71¢ bid, 72¢ ask; last trade 72¢). These are snapshots; the table above shows the current prices. (Prices checked by DeFi Rate on each market's page.)
• October 13, 2026: Barack Obama's campaign stop was announced: a rally in Cleveland with Acton and Sherrod Brown on Saturday, October 24, his first Ohio visit since 2018. (Source: Statehouse News Bureau)
• October 12, 2026: Trump rallied at the Covelli Centre in Youngstown with Ramaswamy and Sen. Jon Husted. (Source: Tribune Chronicle)
• October 8, 2026: CNN published a CNN/SSRS poll of 760 likely voters, taken September 29–October 5, with Acton ahead 50% to 42%. Separately, a co/efficient poll of 925 likely voters, taken October 5–6, was reported with Ramaswamy ahead 45% to 43% (margin of error ±3.49 points), the first lead for him after five straight polls showing Acton ahead. (Source: Newsweek)
• October 6, 2026: early voting began in Ohio. Acton met small business owners in Bexley. (Source: Statehouse News Bureau)
• October 4, 2026: the New York Times/Siena poll, taken September 22–October 1, was released with Acton ahead 49% to 45% among 616 likely voters. (Source: American Bazaar)
• October 3, 2026: Ramaswamy appeared with Trump in Vandalia, where Trump also campaigned for Husted. (Source: Statehouse News Bureau)
• September 29, 2026: Suffolk University released a poll for the USA Today Ohio Network, taken September 23–27, with Acton ahead 50% to 41% among 500 likely voters. Marist released a poll the same day, taken September 24–27, with Acton ahead 50% to 44% among 1,298 registered voters. (Source: Newsweek)

The matchup

This is an open seat: Mike DeWine is term-limited. Acton, the former state health director who led Ohio's early COVID-19 response, is the Democratic nominee. Ramaswamy, the businessman and 2024 presidential candidate, won the Republican nomination with Trump's backing.

What matters in the race

• Ohio's lean. Trump carried Ohio in 2016, 2020 and 2024, so a Democratic win would be an upset by recent standards.
• Poll spread. Surveys range from a two-point Ramaswamy lead to a nine-point Acton lead; new polls can change traders' views.
• The Senate race on the same ballot. Polymarket US also lists an Ohio Senate-and-governor combo market, a different question from this board.

Key dates

• October 6, 2026: early voting began.
• Tuesday, November 3, 2026: general election.
• January 2027: the winner takes office.

How the markets settle

Kalshi's Ohio market (GOVPARTYOH-26) is a party contract. It pays out Yes if a member of that party is inaugurated as governor of Ohio after the 2026 election. Kalshi labels each side with the party's nominee, so the price is the party's chance of winning, not a bet on the person.

If a nominee were replaced before Election Day, the contract would still settle on which party wins. Kalshi can settle early once major news outlets call the race.

Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini each list the same question, who wins the November 3 general election. Margin-of-victory, turnout, county and Senate-plus-governor combo markets are different questions and aren't on this board.