2026 midtermsGeneric Ballot Odds 2026: House Popular Vote Margin

Democrats lead the national House vote by about seven points in the newest poll, and the markets are pricing a lead of roughly that size on Election Day. A NewsNation and DDHQ poll released October 13 had Democrats at 49% and Republicans at 42%, with 8% undecided, among 974 likely voters surveyed October 5–9.

On Kalshi, the most likely result is a Democratic margin of 8 to 10 points, at 26%, followed by 6 to 8 points at 23%. Polymarket's matching line, Democrats by 8 to 10 points, sits at about 28%. A Republican win of the popular vote is a long shot, at about 5% on Kalshi.

Winning the most votes isn't the same as winning the House. The popular-vote margin adds up every House vote nationwide, while control depends on who wins 218 of the 435 districts, so a party can win the national vote and still fall short of a majority. The live tables above update through the day.

Latest updates

• October 14, 2026 (checked about 10:20 p.m. Eastern): on Kalshi, a Democratic margin of 8 to 10 points last traded at 26¢ and 6 to 8 points at 23¢; "Republicans win" at 4.7¢. On Polymarket, Democrats by 8 to 10 points had a 28.5% midpoint (28¢ bid, 29¢ ask). These are snapshots; the tables above show the current prices.
• October 13, 2026: NewsNation and Decision Desk HQ released their poll taken October 5–9, with Democrats ahead 49% to 42% (margin of error ±3.2 points).

How to read the margin board

Each line is a range of the gap between the two parties' share of the national House vote. If Democrats get 52% and Republicans 45%, the margin is 7 points, which lands in the 6-to-8 line.

Each range includes its lower number but not its upper one, and the margin isn't rounded: a margin of exactly 10 points is in the 10-to-12 line, not 8-to-10, and 9.99 points is in 8-to-10.

Kalshi and Polymarket use the same two-point ranges for a Democratic win, from 0–2 points up to 16 points or more, and those lines sit side by side. They split a Republican win differently: Kalshi has a single "Republicans win" line, while Polymarket splits it into four ranges. Those lines stay on their own venue.

What matters

• Undecided voters. 8% were undecided in the NewsNation poll; where they land decides whether the margin finishes in the single digits or above 10.
• Uncontested seats. Districts where one party has no candidate add votes to only one side, which can push the national margin away from the polls.
• Turnout. Midterm turnout is lower than in presidential years, and polls of likely voters can miss who shows up.

Key dates

• Tuesday, November 3, 2026: general election.
• Late 2026 into 2027: states certify their results; the markets settle once the official national House vote totals are out.

How the markets settle

Kalshi's margin market (KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03) settles on the national House popular vote as reported by the Clerk of the House. The 2027 in its code isn't a promise that it pays out in 2027; it pays once the official totals are out.

Polymarket's House popular vote margin market uses the same Democratic ranges, but its rules add an "Other" outcome and a June 30, 2027 fallback if the result isn't settled by then, so the two markets don't settle the same way in every case. The "Other" line isn't shown. Polymarket US lists this market too, but the site can't show its prices yet.

This is a different question from which party wins the House. For that, see our House control odds.

Each market's full rules are on its own page on Kalshi (search the code above) and Polymarket. We name the markets here instead of linking them, because our links to these apps open their home or sign-up page, not the market.