2026 midtermsMaine and Texas Senate Odds: Collins vs. Jackson, Paxton vs. Talarico

Two of the closest Senate races in the country are running neck and neck. In Texas, a UMass Lowell poll of 850 likely voters released October 8 had Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 45%, and early voting starts October 19. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson held their third debate on October 13, after a Marist poll had Jackson ahead 51% to 47%; their final scheduled debate is October 15.

Kalshi lists both races as one combo market: you pick the pair of winners. The highest-priced pair is Talarico and Jackson, at 47¢, a Democratic sweep. Paxton and Collins, a Republican sweep, is next at 31¢. The split results trail: Talarico and Collins at 18¢, Paxton and Jackson at 10¢.

Each pair is its own yes/no contract, so the four prices add up to 106¢, not 100; read them as rough chances, not a split of 100%. The combo also isn't the Texas odds multiplied by the Maine odds, because a national swing can move both races the same way. The live table above updates through the day.

Latest updates

• October 14, 2026 (checked about 10:20 p.m. Eastern): on Kalshi, Talarico and Jackson last traded at 47¢, Paxton and Collins at 31¢, Talarico and Collins at 18¢, and Paxton and Jackson at 10¢. These are snapshots; the tables above show the current prices.
• October 13, 2026: Collins and Jackson held the third of their four scheduled debates, covering energy costs, health care and immigration enforcement.
• October 8, 2026: UMass Lowell released its Texas poll, taken September 18–28, with Talarico and Paxton tied at 45%, 7% undecided and Libertarian Ted Brown at 2% (margin of error ±4.5 points).
• October 7, 2026: President Trump posted that Talarico should debate Paxton; Talarico said he would, and no debate has been scheduled.
• October 6, 2026: Marist released its Maine poll of 1,505 registered voters, taken October 1–4, with Jackson ahead 51% to 47% (margin of error ±3.8 points).

How to read the combo board

Each line is one pair of winners, one from Texas and one from Maine. A Democratic sweep is Talarico and Jackson; a Republican sweep is Paxton and Collins; the other two lines are splits. If these four candidates are the winners, exactly one line pays; if someone else wins either race (a replaced nominee, say), none of these four does.

To follow one race on its own, see our Texas Senate odds and Maine Senate odds. Adding up lines from this board gives a rough read on one state, but the single-race markets are the better guide.

What matters

• Senate control. Both seats are Republican-held. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority, and a sweep here would be two of them.
• Texas early voting. It runs from October 19, and a debate, if one is agreed, would come late.
• Maine's last debate. October 15 is the final scheduled meeting between Collins and Jackson before Election Day.

Key dates

• October 15, 2026: final scheduled Maine Senate debate.
• October 19, 2026: early voting begins in Texas.
• Tuesday, November 3, 2026: general election.

How the markets settle

Kalshi's combo market (KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV) pays on the people: a line wins only if both named candidates win their Senate races. Maine uses ranked-choice voting, so the Maine half settles on the final-round winner.

Kalshi still lists two pairs with Graham Platner, who isn't the Democratic nominee in Maine (Troy Jackson is). They trade near zero and aren't shown.

Polymarket US lists a similar four-way market by party ("Dems sweep" and so on) rather than by candidate. It matches Kalshi's pairs only while these four stay the nominees, and the site can't show its prices yet. Polymarket only lists a three-state combo that adds Michigan, a different question.

Each market's full rules are on its own page on Kalshi (search the code above). We name the markets here instead of linking them, because our links to these apps open their home or sign-up page, not the market.