2026 midterms2026 midterm balance of power odds
Compare the market prices for each possible party combination controlling the House and Senate after the midterms.
About 2 in 3 Up 2 pts this week
Prices to buy. Kalshi's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 10:24 AM ET) and may have moved.
About 2 in 3 Up 6 pts this week
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $149 if correct, before fees.
2026 midterm balance of power odds
Each column is one market's question, and each row an outcome across them. The columns ask different questions, so their prices differ; nothing here is averaged. Tap a price to trade it.
| Outcome | 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?Kalshi | Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsPolymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats sweep | 64%Kalshi64¢ | 67%Polymarket67¢ |
| D-House, R-Senate | 30%Kalshi30¢ | Not listed |
| R Senate, D House | Not listed | 28%Polymarket28¢ |
| Republicans sweep | 8.2%Kalshi8.2¢ | 6.5%Polymarket7¢ |
| R-House, D-Senate | 1%Kalshi1.1¢ | Not listed |
| D Senate, R House | Not listed | 0.6%Polymarket0.60¢ |
| Other | Not listed | 0.2%Polymarket0.20¢ |
Chance is each venue's price for Yes. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate and Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 10:24 AM and 10:35 AM ET.
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 4, 10:35 AM ET).
Four ways the chambers can split
The balance of power market asks who will control both chambers after the midterms. The possible combinations are a Democratic sweep, a Republican sweep, a Democratic House with a Republican Senate, and a Republican House with a Democratic Senate. Each combination is its own outcome. Do not add the individual House and Senate probabilities and call the result a tradable price.
What the contract actually settles on
Read the date and definition of control in the exchange's rules. A contract on the composition of Congress at a specified time can differ from a simple Election Day result, especially when counting, certification or vacancies affect a chamber. Compare the venue prices and the available asks before trading. Our midterms hub tracks the broader House and Senate picture.
Balance of power questions
- Is a divided Congress one market outcome?
Not necessarily. A Democratic House and Republican Senate is a different combination from a Republican House and Democratic Senate. Check which one a contract names.
- Can I calculate a combination price from the separate chamber odds?
Not by simply adding or multiplying the displayed probabilities. The chamber outcomes are related, and the combination contract has its own order book and settlement rules.
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