Nevada Governor Election OddsNevada Governor Odds: Aaron Ford (D) vs. Joe Lombardo (R)

Nevada's race for governor is one of the closest in the country, and the attacks are getting sharper with early voting set to open Saturday, October 17. At a Las Vegas news conference on October 13, Attorney General Aaron Ford, the Democrat, said Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo's decisions follow his donors. He pointed to Lombardo's veto of a bill limiting how many homes corporate investors could buy, after billionaire Robert Bigelow put about $30 million behind Lombardo in 2022, and to his vetoes of two bills capping prescription drug prices. Lombardo's campaign didn't immediately respond, the Nevada Current reported.

Lombardo's campaign is running on the economy. In a statement to 8 News Now on October 7, the day Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Raphael Warnock campaigned in Nevada for Democrats, it said the state has added more than 100,000 jobs under Lombardo and attacked Ford's "$18 billion tax-and-spend agenda" and his time outside Nevada. Ford calls it a "Trump-Lombardo economy" that has hurt everyone.

The polls are as close as the markets. A Noble Predictive Insights poll of 708 likely voters, taken September 22–26 and released October 6, had Lombardo at 42%, Ford at 40% and independent Danielle Ford at 7%, with 9% undecided (margin of error ±3.68 points; toplines per Political Wire's write-up). An Emerson College poll of 680 likely voters, taken September 5–8 and released September 10, had Ford ahead 44% to 42%, with 11% undecided.

Checked at 4:01 p.m. Eastern on October 14, the Democratic side of Kalshi's party market last traded at 51% and the Republican side at 49%. On Polymarket, Ford's midpoint was 52.5% (52¢ bid, 53¢ ask) and Lombardo's 47.5%. The live table on this page updates through the day.

Latest updates

• October 14, 2026 (checked 4:01 p.m. Eastern): on Kalshi, the Democratic side (Ford) last traded at 51¢ (51%) and the Republican side (Lombardo) at 49¢. On Polymarket, Ford's midpoint was 52.5% (52¢ bid, 53¢ ask; last trade 53¢) and Lombardo's 47.5% (47¢ bid, 48¢ ask). These are snapshots; the table above shows the current prices. (Prices checked by DeFi Rate on each market's page.)
• October 13, 2026: at a news conference in Las Vegas, Ford said Lombardo vetoed housing and prescription drug bills that his donors opposed. Lombardo's campaign didn't immediately respond. (Source: Nevada Current)
• October 7, 2026: Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Raphael Warnock campaigned in Nevada with Democrats, including Ford. Lombardo's campaign answered with a statement on job growth and Ford's spending plans. (Source: 8 News Now)
• October 6, 2026: Noble Predictive Insights released a poll of 708 likely voters, taken September 22–26: Lombardo 42%, Ford 40%, Danielle Ford (independent) 7%, undecided 9%. Independents split 32% to 32%. (Sources: Noble Predictive Insights, Political Wire)
• September 10, 2026: Emerson College released a poll of 680 likely voters, taken September 5–8: Ford 44%, Lombardo 42%, undecided 11%. (Source: Emerson College Polling)

The matchup

Lombardo, the former Clark County sheriff, won the governorship in 2022 and is seeking a second term. Ford, Nevada's attorney general since 2019, won the Democratic primary in June. Independent Danielle Ford is also on the ballot and drew 7% in the Noble poll; Kalshi's market has only the Democratic and Republican sides.

What matters in the race

• Clark County. Noble had Lombardo and Ford tied there, 41% to 42%, while other Democrats on the ballot led in the county by 6 to 14 points.
• Independents and the third candidate. Noble found independents split 32% to 32%, and Danielle Ford's 7% is bigger than the gap between the two leaders.
• Money. Lombardo started 2026 with about $15 million across his campaign and allied committees; Ford started with about $2 million.
• Data centers. 59% of voters in Emerson's poll oppose new data centers near them. In July, neither candidate would say whether the state should give data center tax breaks to a project on federal land near Boulder City. Since then, Ford has said he would stop new data center tax breaks if elected, the Nevada Current reported in August and September.
• Trump. Noble found 38% of Nevada voters approve of President Trump, and Ford keeps tying Lombardo to him.

Key dates

• October 17–30, 2026: early voting.
• Tuesday, November 3, 2026: general election.
• January 2027: the winner takes office.

How the markets settle

Kalshi's Nevada market (GOVPARTYNV-26) is a party contract. It pays out Yes if a member of that party is inaugurated as governor of Nevada after the 2026 election. Kalshi labels each side with the party's nominee, so the price is the party's chance of winning, not a bet on the person.

If a nominee were replaced before Election Day, the contract would still settle on which party wins. Kalshi can settle early once major news outlets call the race.

Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini each list the same question, who wins the November 3 general election. Margin-of-victory, turnout, county and Senate-plus-governor combo markets are different questions and aren't on this board.