2026 Governor Election Odds2026 Governor Odds: The Closest Races
Kalshi has Rick Jackson (R) at 51% and Gemini at 50%.
About even
Average of Kalshi (51%) and Gemini (50%).
Prices to buy. Polymarket US's quote is stale (observed Oct 5, 6:02 AM ET) and may have moved.
About 3 in 5
Average of Kalshi (58%) and Gemini (57%).
Prices to buy. Polymarket US's quote is stale (observed Aug 27, 10:11 AM ET) and may have moved.
Georgia Governor winner?
Kalshi: $11K (100%) · Polymarket US: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 2:18 PM and 2:20 PM ET; Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed between Aug 27, 10:11 AM ET and Oct 5, 6:02 AM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:20 PM ET.
Nevada Governor winner?
Aaron Ford (D) is the favorite at 57%, averaging Kalshi (58%) and Gemini (57%). Kalshi traders make Aaron Ford the favorite at 58%, ahead of Joe Lombardo at 44%. Polymarket US traders make Joe Lombardo (R) the favorite at 60%, ahead of Aaron Ford (D) at 40%. Gemini traders make Aaron Ford the favorite at 57%, ahead of Joe Lombardo at 44%.
Kalshi: $9K (100%) · Polymarket US: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 2:07 PM and 2:16 PM ET; Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed between Aug 27, 10:11 AM and 8:50 PM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:20 PM ET.
Kansas Governor Election Winner
Polymarket US traders make Ty Masterson (R) the favorite at 64%, ahead of Cindy Holscher (D) at 35%. Gemini traders make Ty Masterson the favorite at 77%, ahead of Cindy Holscher at 24%.
Polymarket US 64%, quote from Aug 27, 10:11 AM ET · Gemini 77%
Polymarket US 35%, quote from Aug 27, 9:59 AM ET · Gemini 24%
Nothing traded in the last 24 hours
Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Polymarket US: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed between Aug 27, 9:59 AM and 10:11 AM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:20 PM ET.
Ohio Governor winner?
Amy Acton (D) is the favorite at 75%, averaging Kalshi (75%) and Gemini (75%). Kalshi traders make Amy Acton the favorite at 75%, ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy at 27%. Polymarket US traders make Amy Acton (D) the favorite at 56%, ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy (R) at 42%. Gemini traders make Amy Acton the favorite at 75%, ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy at 28%.
Average of Kalshi (75%) and Gemini (75%)
Average of Kalshi (27%) and Gemini (28%)
Kalshi: $82K (100%) · Polymarket US: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 2:18 PM and 2:20 PM ET; Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed between Aug 27, 9:59 AM and 10:11 AM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:21 PM ET.
Texas Governor winner?
Greg Abbott (R) is the favorite at 75%, averaging Kalshi (75%) and Gemini (76%). Kalshi traders make Greg Abbott the favorite at 75%, ahead of Gina Hinojosa at 27%. Polymarket US traders make Greg Abbott (R) the favorite at 85%, ahead of Gina Hinojosa (D) at 15%. Gemini traders make Greg Abbott the favorite at 76%, ahead of Gina Hinojosa at 28%.
Average of Kalshi (75%) and Gemini (76%)
Average of Kalshi (27%) and Gemini (28%)
Kalshi: $86K (100%) · Polymarket US: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Prices to buy each outcome. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini.
| Outcome | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott (R) | 75% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $133 | Kalshi75¢ | Polymarket USNo ask | Gemini78¢ | |
| Gina Hinojosa (D) | 27% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $370 | Kalshi27¢ | Polymarket USNo ask | Gemini30¢ |
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 20, 2:17 PM ET; Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed Aug 28, 7:50 PM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:20 PM ET.
Vermont Governor winner?
Phil Scott (R) is the favorite at 77%, averaging Kalshi (77%) and Gemini (78%). Kalshi traders make Phil Scott the favorite at 77%, ahead of Amanda Janoo at 25%. Polymarket US traders make Phil Scott (R) the favorite at 92%, ahead of Amanda Janoo (D) at 23%. Gemini traders make Phil Scott the favorite at 78%, ahead of Amanda Janoo at 25%.
Average of Kalshi (77%) and Gemini (78%)
Average of Kalshi (25%) and Gemini (25%)
Kalshi: $2K (100%) · Polymarket US: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 20, 2:07 PM ET; Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed Aug 28, 7:58 PM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:20 PM ET.
Florida Governor winner?
Byron Donalds (R) is the favorite at 80%, averaging Kalshi (80%) and Gemini (80%). Kalshi traders make Byron Donalds the favorite at 80%, ahead of David Jolly at 21%. Polymarket US traders make Byron Donalds (R) the favorite at 83%, ahead of David Jolly (D) at 21%. Gemini traders make Byron Donalds the favorite at 80%, ahead of David Jolly at 21%.
Average of Kalshi (80%) and Gemini (80%)
Average of Kalshi (21%) and Gemini (21%)
Kalshi: $76K (100%) · Polymarket US: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 2:08 PM and 2:16 PM ET; Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed Aug 28, 7:49 PM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:20 PM ET.
Wisconsin Governor winner?
David Crowley (D) is the favorite at 79%, averaging Kalshi (80%) and Gemini (79%). Kalshi traders make David Crowley the favorite at 80%, ahead of Tom Tiffany at 20%. Polymarket US traders make David Crowley (D) the favorite at 79%, ahead of Tom Tiffany (R) at 20%. Gemini traders make David Crowley the favorite at 79%, ahead of Tom Tiffany at 20%.
Average of Kalshi (80%) and Gemini (79%)
Average of Kalshi (20%) and Gemini (20%)
Kalshi: $3K (100%) · Polymarket US: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 2:16 PM and 2:18 PM ET; Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed between Aug 27, 10:00 AM and 10:11 AM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:21 PM ET.
Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the favorite at 82%, averaging Kalshi (82%) and Gemini (82%). Kalshi traders make Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins the favorite at 82%, ahead of Bernadette Wilson at 15%. Polymarket US traders make Bernadette Wilson the favorite at 42%, ahead of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 37%. Gemini traders make Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins the favorite at 82%, ahead of Bernadette Wilson at 17%.
Average of Kalshi (82%) and Gemini (82%)
Average of Kalshi (15%) and Gemini (17%)
Kalshi: $14K (100%) · Polymarket US: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 1:25 PM and 2:16 PM ET; Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed Aug 29, 1:28 AM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:20 PM ET.
Oregon Governor winner?
Kalshi traders make Tina Kotek the favorite at 82%, ahead of Christine Drazan at 19%.
About 4 in 5
About 1 in 5
Most traded: Tina Kotek ($5K)
11:00 AM ET
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 20, 2:20 PM ET.
Iowa Governor winner?
Rob Sand (D) is the favorite at 87%, averaging Kalshi (87%) and Gemini (88%). Kalshi traders make Rob Sand the favorite at 87%, ahead of Zach Lahn at 14%. Polymarket US traders make Rob Sand (D) the favorite at 74%, ahead of Zach Lahn (R) at 26%. Gemini traders make Rob Sand the favorite at 88%, ahead of Zach Lahn at 14%.
Average of Kalshi (87%) and Gemini (88%)
Average of Kalshi (14%) and Gemini (14%)
Kalshi: $10K (100%) · Polymarket US: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 2:11 PM and 2:18 PM ET; Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed Aug 27, 9:59 AM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:20 PM ET.
Arizona Governor winner?
Katie Hobbs (D) is the favorite at 90%, averaging Kalshi (91%) and Gemini (90%). Kalshi traders make Katie Hobbs the favorite at 91%, ahead of Andy Biggs at 9.6%. Polymarket US traders make Katie Hobbs (D) the favorite at 90%, ahead of Andy Biggs (R) at 11%. Gemini traders make Katie Hobbs the favorite at 90%, ahead of Andy Biggs at 10%.
Average of Kalshi (91%) and Gemini (90%)
Average of Kalshi (9.6%) and Gemini (10%)
Kalshi: $3K (100%) · Polymarket US: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 2:04 PM and 2:17 PM ET; Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed Aug 27, 10:11 AM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:21 PM ET.
Michigan Governor winner?
Kalshi traders make Jocelyn Benson the favorite at 92%, ahead of John James at 8.3%.
About 9 in 10
About 1 in 12
Most traded: John James ($907)
11:00 AM ET
Prices to buy each outcome. Tap a price to open Kalshi.
| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jocelyn Benson | 92% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $108 | Kalshi92.1¢ | |
| John James | 8.3% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $1,149 | Kalshi8.7¢ | |
| Mike Duggan | 0.1% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $100,000 | Kalshi0.10¢ |
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 2:07 PM and 2:19 PM ET.
Massachusetts Governor winner?
Kalshi traders make Maura Healey the favorite at 96%, ahead of Mike Minogue at 4.4%.
About 19 in 20
About 1 in 23
Most traded: Maura Healey ($19K)
11:00 AM ET
Prices to buy each outcome. Tap a price to open Kalshi.
| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maura Healey | 96% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $104 | Kalshi96.1¢ | |
| Mike Minogue | 4.4% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $2,222 | Kalshi4.5¢ |
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 20, 2:11 PM ET.
New York Governor winner?
Kathy Hochul is the favorite at 94%, averaging Kalshi (94%) and Gemini (94%). Kalshi traders make Kathy Hochul the favorite at 94%, ahead of Bruce Blakeman at 5.8%. Gemini traders make Kathy Hochul the favorite at 94%, ahead of Bruce Blakeman at 9%.
Average of Kalshi (94%) and Gemini (94%)
Average of Kalshi (5.8%) and Gemini (9%)
Most traded: Bruce Blakeman ($117K)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027 · Gemini: Nov 10, 2026
Prices to buy each outcome. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Gemini.
| Outcome | Average | Kalshi | Gemini | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kathy Hochul | 94% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $105 | Kalshi94.6¢ | Gemini96¢ | |
| Bruce Blakeman | 7.4% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $1,694 | Kalshi5.9¢ | Gemini10¢ |
Kalshi: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Sources: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 2:04 PM and 2:13 PM ET; Gemini public market data, observed Oct 20, 2:20 PM ET.
The widest gap is on Bruce Blakeman: Kalshi 5.8% and Gemini 9%. Our figure is their average.
Pennsylvania Governor winner?
Kalshi traders make Josh Shapiro the favorite at 97%, ahead of Stacy Garrity at 3.1%.
About 49 in 50
About 1 in 33
Most traded: Stacy Garrity ($856)
11:00 AM ET
Prices to buy each outcome. Tap a price to open Kalshi.
| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro | 97% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $102 | Kalshi97.3¢ | |
| Stacy Garrity | 3.1% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $3,225 | Kalshi3.1¢ |
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 2:12 PM and 2:14 PM ET.
Minnesota Governor winner?
Kalshi traders make Amy Klobuchar the favorite at 95%, ahead of Lisa Demuth at 4.9%.
About 19 in 20
About 1 in 20
Most traded: Lisa Demuth ($2K)
11:00 AM ET
Prices to buy each outcome. Tap a price to open Kalshi.
| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Klobuchar | 95% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $104 | Kalshi95.6¢ | |
| Lisa Demuth | 4.9% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $1,886 | Kalshi5.3¢ |
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 20, 2:04 PM ET.
Who will win the governorship in California?
Kalshi traders make Xavier Becerra the favorite at 96%, ahead of Steve Hilton at 4.3%.
About 19 in 20
About 1 in 23
Most traded: Xavier Becerra ($32K)
11:00 AM ET
Prices to buy each outcome. Tap a price to open Kalshi.
| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra | 96% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $104 | Kalshi95.8¢ | ||
| Steve Hilton | 4.3% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $2,272 | Kalshi4.4¢ | ||
| Alex Padilla Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Antonio Villaraigosa Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Butch Ware Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Betty Yee Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Ché Ahn Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Chad Bianco Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Daniel Mercuri Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Ethan Agarwal Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Eleni Kounalakis Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Eric Swalwell Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Kamala Harris Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Kyle Langford Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Katie Porter Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Leo Zacky Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Matt Mahan Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Michael Younger Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Nicole Shanahan Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Rob Bonta Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Rick Caruso Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Stephen Cloobeck Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Toni Atkins Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Tom Steyer Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| Tony Thurmond Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
Open · 23 of 25 settled Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 20, 2:06 PM and 2:18 PM ET.
Thirty-six states elect a governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This page puts the races traders are watching most in one place, closest first: Kalshi's price for each race, with Polymarket US and Gemini beside it where they list the same race.
Checked at 1:10 p.m. Eastern on October 20, Kalshi had Georgia as the closest race, with Republican Rick Jackson at 51% and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms at 49%. Nevada was next, with Democrat Aaron Ford at 59% against Gov. Joe Lombardo. Kalshi doesn't list a Kansas governor market, so Kansas is here with Polymarket US and Gemini's prices. The cards on this page update through the day.
2026 governor races at a glance
- Races on the ballot: 36 governors, on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
- On this page: the closest races and the ones with the most money traded on Kalshi.
- What you can trade: which party (or candidate) wins each state's governor race.
- Where our odds come from: prices from the prediction markets we track. We don't make our own forecast.
Governor odds by state
Each state below has its own page with every app's prices, the price history, the candidates and the key dates.
How to read these odds
A price is the market's chance right now, not a final call. A 70¢ Yes price means traders give that side about a 70% chance. Prices move with polls, debates, endorsements and news, and with trading itself.
Kalshi's governor markets are mostly party contracts: each side is named for its party's nominee, and it pays out on which party wins. Alaska and California are listed candidate by candidate. Polymarket US and Gemini list who wins the November election. A stale quote shows its last price and isn't offered as a price to buy.
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