California Proposition Odds 2026Prediction markets expect 7 of California's 14 propositions to pass on November 3
The billionaire tax, Prop 40, is an underdog at 34% to pass. Prop 3 (high-earner tax extension) is the likeliest to pass, at 75%; Prop 44 (clinic spending) the least, at 19%. Prop 38, Prop 42 and Prop 45 are close to a coin flip.
About 1 in 3
Prop 40: Billionaire tax
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $312 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 3
Prop 39: Voter ID
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $303 if correct, before fees.
About even
Prop 38: Immunology research bond
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $166 if correct, before fees.
California proposition odds: every measure on the ballot
All 14 statewide measures: 5 placed on the ballot by the Legislature and 9 by citizen initiative. Each venue’s figure is its chance as its own site shows it, and the chance to pass is their average (the line marks 50%). Tap a venue to trade it.
| Proposition | Chance to pass | Kalshi | PolymarketInternational |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prop 1: Housing bondLikely passLegislature · Authorizes Bonds for Housing Affordability Programs | 72% | Kalshi83% | Polymarket61% |
| Prop 2: Rainy Day FundLikely passLegislature · Increases State's Rainy Day Fund | 73% | Kalshi81% | Polymarket64% |
| Prop 3: High-earner tax extensionLikely passInitiative · Provides Permanent Funding for Schools and Health Care by Extending Existing Tax on High Incomes | 75% | Kalshi79% | Polymarket70% |
| Prop 4: Public campaign financingVenues splitLegislature · Repeals Prohibition Against Public Funding of Election Campaigns | 30% | Kalshi13% | Polymarket47% |
| Prop 5: Recall electionsLikely failLegislature · Changes Recall Election Process for Statewide Officers | 33% | Kalshi34% | Polymarket31% |
| Prop 37: Home-buyer loansLikely passInitiative · Creates Loan Program for Middle-Income Buyers of Qualified New Homes | 66% | Kalshi77% | Polymarket54% |
| Prop 38: Immunology research bondToss-upInitiative · Authorizes Bonds for Immunology Medical Research | 52% | Kalshi57% | Polymarket46% |
| Prop 39: Voter IDLikely failInitiative · Prohibits Citizens from Voting Unless They Present Government-Issued Identification | 30% | Kalshi32% | Polymarket27% |
| Prop 40: Billionaire taxLikely failInitiative · Imposes One-Time Tax on Certain Taxpayers | 34% | Kalshi36% | Polymarket32% |
| Prop 41: Tax spending limit and auditsVenues splitInitiative · Prohibits New State Taxes That Exclude Revenues from State Spending Limit. Requires Audits for New State Special Taxes | 57% | Kalshi36% | Polymarket78% |
| Prop 42: Property and retroactive taxesLean passInitiative · Prohibits New State Personal Property Taxes and Certain Retroactive State Taxes | 56% | Kalshi56% | Polymarket55% |
| Prop 43: Local tax votesLikely failLegislature · Limits Voters' Ability to Raise Revenues for Local Government Services | 29% | Kalshi19% | Polymarket38% |
| Prop 44: Clinic spendingSolid failInitiative · Requires Community Health Clinics Spend 90% of Revenue on Program Services | 19% | Kalshi27% | Polymarket11% |
| Prop 45: Environmental reviewToss-upInitiative · Modifies Environmental Review for Certain Projects | 48% | Kalshi53% | Polymarket43% |
How each venue’s figure is set: the midpoint of its bid and ask when they’re within 10¢, otherwise its last trade, as Polymarket shows prices on its own site. Most of these markets are thin, so buying can cost well above the figure (hover a venue for its price to buy). Polymarket’s figures are from its international exchange; we found none of these measures on Polymarket US. Measures and titles: California Secretary of State. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate and Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 2:34 PM and 4:56 PM ET.
Prop 40 odds: will California’s billionaire tax pass?
The most-traded measure on the ballot, with markets of its own on whether the tax takes effect and whether it beats the measures opposing it. Full California wealth tax odds →
| Question | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Prop 40 passes | Kalshi36% | Polymarket32% |
| The tax takes effect before 2027 | Kalshi29% | Not listed |
| It defeats the opposing propositionsPolymarket’s question | Not listed | Polymarket13% |
California voters decide 14 statewide propositions on November 3, 2026. On Kalshi and Polymarket, traders buy contracts on whether each one passes, and a contract’s price is the market’s chance. This page puts every measure side by side, with each venue’s price, and updates through the day.
How to read California proposition odds
A Yes contract pays $1 if the measure passes and nothing if it fails, so a price of 70¢ is a 70% chance. The average column is the mean of the venues that list the measure. Most proposition markets are thin: little money has traded, and the gap between the price to buy and the price to sell can be wide, so a single trade can move them. Prop 40, the billionaire tax, is the exception, with by far the most trading and its own markets on the margin of victory and on whether the tax takes effect.
Propositions 1, 2, 4, 5 and 43 were placed on the ballot by the Legislature. Propositions 3, 37 through 42, 44 and 45 are citizen initiatives, put on the ballot by signature petitions. Each measure’s official title, from the California Secretary of State, is under its name in the table.
- When is California’s 2026 election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Every proposition is decided by the statewide vote that day. Each venue settles its market by its own rules once the result is known.
- Which propositions are on California’s November 2026 ballot?
Prop 1 (housing bond), Prop 2 (rainy day fund), Prop 3 (high-earner tax extension), Prop 4 (public campaign financing), Prop 5 (recall elections), Prop 37 (home-buyer loans), Prop 38 (immunology research bond), Prop 39 (voter id), Prop 40 (billionaire one-time tax), Prop 41 (tax spending limit and audits), Prop 42 (personal property and retroactive taxes), Prop 43 (local tax votes), Prop 44 (community clinic spending), Prop 45 (environmental review). The table above has each measure’s official title.
- What do California proposition odds mean?
Each figure is the price of a Yes contract, which pays out if the measure passes. A price of 70 cents means traders put the measure’s chance of passing at about 70%.
- Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They are separate markets with different traders, and most proposition markets are thin, so prices can sit far apart until enough money trades. Some prices are a last trade rather than a current offer; the button says which.
- What is Prop 40?
Prop 40 is the initiative for a one-time tax on billionaires; its official title is “Imposes One-Time Tax on Certain Taxpayers.” It is the most-traded California measure on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
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