2028 Republican VP NomineeMarco Rubio is the favorite at 28%
Kalshi has Marco Rubio at 27% and Polymarket at 30%. Over the past week on Kalshi, Marco Rubio lost 1 point, to 27%.
About 1 in 4 Down 1 pt this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (27%) and Polymarket (30%).
Prices to buy. Kalshi's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 9:18 AM ET); Polymarket's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 9:43 AM ET); they may have moved.
About 1 in 17
Polymarket 5.9%.
Last trades. Polymarket's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 9:43 AM ET) and may have moved.
2028 Republican VP nominee
Kalshi: $218 (96%) · Polymarket: $8 (4%)
Kalshi: Nov 7, 2028 · Polymarket: Aug 14, 2028
Prices to buy each outcome, or the last trade where no one is selling. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Polymarket.
| Outcome | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 28% | Kalshi28¢ | Polymarket29¢ | ||
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 5.9% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket6¢ | ||
| J.D. Vance | 5.5% | Kalshi5.7¢ | Polymarket5¢ | ||
| Thomas Massie | 5.2% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket5.1¢ | ||
| Donald J. Trump | 4.1% | Kalshi3.8¢ | Polymarket4.4¢ | ||
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 4% | Kalshi4.2¢ | Polymarket3¢ | ||
| Ivanka Trump | 3.2% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket8.4¢ | ||
| Eric Schmitt | 3% | Kalshi2¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Joe Kent | 2.6% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket4¢ | ||
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 2.4% | Kalshi3¢ | Polymarket1.1¢ | ||
| Kristi Noem | 2.3% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.30¢ | ||
| Tucker Carlson | 2.2% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket5.7¢ | ||
| Josh Hawley | 2.1% | Kalshi1.7¢ | Polymarket5¢ | ||
| Glenn Youngkin | 2% | Kalshi2.4¢ | Polymarket0.70¢ | ||
| Elise Stefanik | 1.8% | Kalshi2.2¢ | Polymarket0.60¢ | ||
| Ted Cruz | 1.7% | Kalshi1.4¢ | Polymarket8.6¢ | ||
| Katie Britt | 1.7% | Kalshi2.8¢ | Polymarket0.70¢ | ||
| Ron DeSantis | 1.6% | Kalshi2.9¢ | Polymarket0.70¢ | ||
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1.6% | Kalshi2.4¢ | Polymarket1.1¢ | ||
| Erika Kirk | 1.6% | Kalshi3.5¢ | Polymarket1¢ | ||
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 1.6% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket2.5¢ | ||
| Tim Scott | 1.5% | Kalshi2¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Byron Donalds | 1.4% | Kalshi2.4¢ | Polymarket0.85¢ | ||
| Nikki Haley | 1.3% | Kalshi1.5¢ | Polymarket0.90¢ | ||
| Brian Kemp | 1.1% | Kalshi0.90¢ | Polymarket1¢ | ||
| Eric Trump | 1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.60¢ | ||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 1% | Kalshi1.5¢ | Polymarket0.60¢ | ||
| Pete Hegseth | 1% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.60¢ | ||
| Kim Kardashian | 0.9% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Rand Paul | 0.7% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Greg Abbott | 0.7% | Kalshi0.90¢ | Polymarket0.60¢ | ||
| Mike Pence | 0.6% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Elon Musk | 0.6% | Kalshi0.40¢ | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Matt Gaetz | 0.5% | Kalshi0.40¢ | Polymarket0.50¢ | ||
| John Thune | 0.5% | Kalshi0.60¢ | Polymarket0.50¢ | ||
| Tom Brady | 0.4% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
| Steve Bannon | 0.2% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket0.20¢ | ||
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade; Polymarket's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 7:02 AM and 9:45 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Marco Rubio: Kalshi 27% and Polymarket 30%. Our figure is their average.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Marco Rubio lost 1 point, to 27%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Aug 3 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Little movement, last 7 days
Little movement in the last 7 days. The largest was Marco Rubio, −1 pt to 27%.
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