2026 midterms2026 Texas Senate election odds
See the current Texas Senate market, compare the prices across venues and learn what the winner contracts settle on.
About 2 in 3 Up 5 pts this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (64%) and Polymarket (64%).
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $156 if correct, before fees.
About 2 in 5 Down 4 pts this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (37%) and Polymarket (36%).
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $277 if correct, before fees.
2026 Texas Senate election odds
Each row is an outcome, with its price to buy. Tap a price to trade it.
| Outcome | Texas Senate winner?Kalshi and Polymarket |
|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | 64%Kalshi65¢Polymarket64¢ |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 36%Kalshi37¢Polymarket36¢ |
Chance is each venue's price for Yes. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate and Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 7:49 PM and 7:52 PM ET.
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 4, 7:51 PM ET).
The Texas Senate race and the path to control
The Texas winner market prices one election. It matters to the wider chamber picture, but a move in Texas does not by itself determine who controls the Senate. Read the live outcome board for the current favorite and the price on the other side rather than relying on an old article or poll.
What to check before trading
Open the underlying contracts to confirm whether the outcome names refer to a candidate or a party, how any runoff is treated and what evidence resolves the market. Prices can differ across exchanges because the orders and the resolution wording differ. The displayed odds are market prices, not our own election forecast. See all midterm odds or compare Senate races.
Texas Senate election questions
- Does a Texas win settle the Senate control market?
No. Texas resolves one Senate seat. The chamber-control contract depends on the resulting balance across the whole Senate.
- Are Texas Senate odds a poll?
No. These are prediction-market prices based on available orders. A price is not a candidate's share of voters.
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