Wisconsin Governor Election OddsWisconsin Governor Odds: David Crowley (D) Leads

Wisconsin's open race for governor is drawing national names in its final three weeks. Former Vice President Kamala Harris will campaign in Wisconsin with David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, on October 26, WKOW reported on October 14. Barack Obama endorsed Crowley on October 8, and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore campaigned with him in southeast Wisconsin on October 9. Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, who has President Trump's endorsement, won the backing of the Wisconsin Fraternal Order of Police on October 6 and held a Green Bay event for hunters with Ted Nugent on October 8, WISN 12 reported. The two meet on October 21 in their only confirmed debate.

Both candidates call the cost of living the state's biggest problem, and their answers are far apart. Tiffany wants a 10% income tax cut for families earning under $150,000, a property tax freeze, no tax on tips and the state's roughly $3 billion surplus returned to taxpayers. Crowley wants the state to spend more on child care, health care and housing, paid for partly with the surplus and taxes on "billionaires," WPR reported on October 8. In a WSAW one-on-one interview that aired October 13, Crowley said he would let any Wisconsinite buy into BadgerCare, the state's Medicaid program, and wants data centers powered by renewable energy, with towns able to say no to them.

The polls are close. The Marquette Law School poll released September 30, taken September 16–23, had Crowley at 49% and Tiffany at 46% among 692 likely voters (margin of error ±4.8 points), and Crowley at 46% to 45% among 843 registered voters (±4.3 points). In August, Crowley led 49% to 44% among likely voters. Crowley's net favorability fell from +4 to −13 between the two polls. Marquette's next poll is due October 28.

Checked at 4:12 p.m. Eastern on October 14, the Democratic side of Kalshi's party market last traded at 81% and the Republican side at 20%. On Polymarket, Crowley's midpoint was 80.5% (80¢ bid, 81¢ ask) and Tiffany's 19% (18¢ bid, 20¢ ask). The live table on this page updates through the day.

Latest updates

• October 14, 2026 (checked 4:12 p.m. Eastern): on Kalshi, the Democratic side (Crowley) last traded at 81¢ (81%) and the Republican side (Tiffany) at 20¢. On Polymarket, Crowley's midpoint was 80.5% (80¢ bid, 81¢ ask; last trade 81¢) and Tiffany's 19% (18¢ bid, 20¢ ask). These are snapshots; the table above shows the current prices. (Prices checked by DeFi Rate on each market's page.)
• October 14, 2026: Kamala Harris will campaign in Wisconsin with Crowley on October 26. (Source: WKOW, citing the Associated Press)
• October 13, 2026: in a one-on-one interview, Crowley said he would open BadgerCare to any Wisconsinite willing to pay in and would let local communities turn down data centers. (Source: WSAW)
• October 9, 2026: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore campaigned with Crowley in southeast Wisconsin. The night before, Ted Nugent headlined a Green Bay event for Tiffany aimed at hunters. (Source: WISN 12)
• October 8, 2026: former President Barack Obama endorsed Crowley. (Source: WKOW)
• October 7, 2026: both candidates said they would end legislators' exemption from records-keeping rules. Tiffany didn't answer the Wisconsin Freedom of Information Council's questionnaire; his campaign said he would set response-time standards for records requests. (Source: Wisconsin Watch)
• October 6, 2026: the Wisconsin Fraternal Order of Police, which says it represents more than 3,700 active and retired officers, endorsed Tiffany. (Source: WKOW)
• September 30, 2026: Marquette Law School released a poll taken September 16–23: Crowley 49%, Tiffany 46% among likely voters; 46% to 45% among registered voters. (Source: Marquette Law School poll, via FOX6)

The matchup

This is an open seat: Gov. Tony Evers isn't seeking a third term. Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive since 2020, won a crowded Democratic primary on August 11, edging state Rep. Francesca Hong with Evers' endorsement. Tiffany, a congressman from northern Wisconsin endorsed by President Trump, is the Republican nominee.

What matters in the race

• Cost of living. 45% of voters in Marquette's September poll named inflation and the cost of living as their top issue, far ahead of anything else.
• Crowley's image. His unfavorable rating rose from 29% in August to 44% in September, mostly among Republicans; Tiffany's stands at 45%.
• Trump. Marquette found 38% of Wisconsin voters approve of President Trump and 60% disapprove, and Tiffany has his endorsement.
• Milwaukee and the north. Crowley's base is the state's largest county; Tiffany's is the rural north.
• A closely split state. Wisconsin's last several statewide races were decided by a point or two.

Key dates

• October 14, 2026: last day to register online or by mail; voters can still register in person with their clerk or at the polls.
• October 20 – November 1, 2026: in-person absentee (early) voting; hours vary by town, so check with your clerk.
• Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 7–8 p.m. Central: debate on WISN 12.
• October 28, 2026: next Marquette Law School poll.
• Tuesday, November 3, 2026: general election.
• January 2027: the winner takes office.

How the markets settle

Kalshi's Wisconsin market (GOVPARTYWI-26) is a party contract. It pays out Yes if a member of that party is inaugurated as governor of Wisconsin after the 2026 election. Kalshi labels each side with the party's nominee, so the price is the party's chance of winning, not a bet on the person.

If a nominee were replaced before Election Day, the contract would still settle on which party wins. Kalshi can settle early once major news outlets call the race.

Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini each list the same question, who wins the November 3 general election. Margin-of-victory, turnout, county and Senate-plus-governor combo markets are different questions and aren't on this board.