2026 midtermsHow Many House Seats Will Democrats and Republicans Hold After 2026?

Forecasters and traders now expect a Democratic House majority. The question is how big. On October 9 the Cook Political Report moved 18 House races toward Democrats and now expects them to finish with 224 to 234 seats, a gain of 9 to 19. It takes 218 for a majority.

Kalshi's traders land in the same area. Its most likely Democratic range is 230 to 233 seats, at 16%, just ahead of 234 to 237 at 15%. On the Republican board, the biggest single line is "below 193", at 28%. The live tables above update through the day.

Polls point the same way. A NewsNation and DDHQ poll of 974 likely voters, taken October 5–9 and released October 13, had Democrats ahead 49% to 42% on the generic ballot, the question of which party's House candidate people plan to vote for.

Latest updates

• October 14, 2026 (checked about 10:20 p.m. Eastern): on Kalshi, Democrats holding 230–233 seats last traded at 16¢ and 234–237 at 15¢; Republicans holding fewer than 193 last traded at 28¢. These are snapshots; the tables above show the current prices.
• October 13, 2026: NewsNation and Decision Desk HQ released their poll taken October 5–9, with Democrats ahead 49% to 42% on the generic ballot (margin of error ±3.2 points).
• October 9, 2026: Cook moved 18 House ratings toward Democrats and put its expected Democratic total at 224 to 234 seats.

How to read the seat boards

Kalshi lists one board for each party, and each line is a range of seats, so only one line on each board can win. The ranges are four seats wide on the Democratic board (230 to 233, 234 to 237…) and five seats wide on the Republican board (193 to 197, 198 to 202…), so the two boards don't line up row by row.

The two boards tell roughly the same story from opposite sides, but they aren't exact complements: an empty seat or a member outside both parties counts for neither, so Democrats at 230 doesn't have to mean Republicans at 205.

Polymarket's Republican House market uses different ranges (190 to 194, 195 to 199…), so no line matches Kalshi's exactly and it isn't on this page.

What matters

• 218 is the line for control. Every Democratic range from 218 to 221 up is a Democratic majority; the size matters for how easily the party can pass bills with defections.
• Toss-up seats. Cook's October 9 changes moved Republican-held seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania toward Democrats, which is where the upper ranges come from.
• Vacancies. Kalshi counts seats held on February 1, 2027, so an empty seat on that date counts for neither party.

Key dates

• Tuesday, November 3, 2026: general election.
• January 3, 2027: the new House is sworn in.
• February 1, 2027: Kalshi counts the seats each party holds.

How the markets settle

Kalshi's Democratic seats market (KXDHOUSESEATS-27) and Republican seats market (KXRHOUSESEATS-27) count the seats each party holds on February 1, 2027, not the seats it wins on Election Day. A recount, resignation or special election before then can change the count.

Each line's range includes both ends: "230 to 233" pays Yes on 230, 231, 232 or 233 seats. "Below 210" means 209 or fewer, and "above 249" means 250 or more.

Polymarket US lists House seat markets that ask "210 or more", "220 or more" and so on. Those are a different question from an exact range, so they aren't on this board.

Each market's full rules are on its own page on Kalshi (search the codes above). We name the markets here instead of linking them, because our links to these apps open their home or sign-up page, not the market.