2026 midterms2026 House control odds
Compare the markets on which party will control the House after the 2026 midterms, with the underlying contracts and settlement rules.
About 19 in 20Unchanged this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (92%) and Polymarket (94%).
Prices to buy. Kalshi's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 9:47 AM ET) and may have moved.
About 1 in 13Unchanged this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (8.2%) and Polymarket (7.5%).
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $1,250 if correct, before fees.
2026 House control odds
Each row is an outcome, with its price to buy. Tap a price to trade it.
| Outcome | Which party will win the U.S. House?Kalshi and Polymarket |
|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 93%Kalshi91.9¢Polymarket94¢ |
| Republican Party | 7.8%Kalshi8.2¢Polymarket8¢ |
Chance is each venue's price for Yes. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate and Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 9:47 AM and 9:57 AM ET.
Little movement, last 7 days
Little movement in the last 7 days. The largest was Republican Party, No change to 8%.
What the House control market asks
These contracts ask which party will control the U.S. House after the 2026 midterm elections, not which party wins the national popular vote. Every voting House seat is contested, so a shift in a small number of competitive districts can change the chamber result. The live prices above reflect traders’ views of the outcome, not a poll or our own election forecast.
Compare the contracts before trading
Kalshi and Polymarket each publish their own rules for when House control is determined. Check the precise settlement language, including how a disputed or delayed result is handled, rather than treating similarly named outcomes as interchangeable. The displayed price can change before an order fills, and fees and the spread between bids and asks affect the final cost.
For the bigger picture, see our 2026 midterm odds hub and Senate race odds.
House control questions
- Does winning the House popular vote guarantee control?
No. The contracts concern control of the chamber, which depends on the seats won, not the aggregate nationwide vote.
- Are these odds a forecast from DeFi Rate?
No. They are prices from the listed prediction markets. Prices change as orders and information change.
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