Prediction Markets 2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

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Updated 10 minutes ago · 12:45 AM PDT

Democratic Presidential Odds Republican VP Odds

J.D. Vance continues to lead the 2028 Republican nomination at 36.0%, but his lead has narrowed since January as Iran-war backlash tests his MAGA standing. Marjorie Taylor Greene broke ranks in March to float Tucker Carlson as an alternative. Marco Rubio has closed the gap to 26.6% on a 35% CPAC straw-poll finish and a central role in Iran diplomacy that Vance has stepped back from. Tucker Carlson sits at 6.6% likely due to his "zero ambition," but kept in play by Trump's public break with him and the MAGA fracture over Iran. The Republican nominee market has traded $1.2M in the last 24 hours. Our custom Republican Nominee odds blends live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Forecastex into a single consensus probability, refreshed hourly.

Largest Spread

3.31%

Marco Rubio → View arbs

Current Favorite

36.0%

J.D. Vance 16.7%

24H Volume (Share)

$1.2M

Momentum Leader

+17.1%

Marco Rubio YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $41.6K Spread 5.5%

Agg 36.0%

↓ -16.7%

F 40.0%

P 36.4%

K 34.5%

ForecastEx 40.0%

Vol $0 40¢

Polymarket 36.4%

Vol $34.0K 36.3–36.4¢

Kalshi 34.5%

Vol $7.6K 34–35¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $23.4K Spread 4.1%

Agg 26.6%

↑ +17.1%

K 29.5%

F 29.0%

P 25.4%

Kalshi 29.5%

Vol $7.0K 29–30¢

ForecastEx 29.0%

Vol $0 29¢

Polymarket 25.4%

Vol $16.3K 25.3–25.4¢

Tucker Carlson

Vol $26.4K Spread 0.7%

Agg 6.6%

↑ +3.9%

P 6.7%

K 5.9%

Polymarket 6.7%

Vol $25.6K 6.6–6.7¢

Kalshi 5.9%

Vol $810 5.9–6¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $13.2K Spread 1.9%

Agg 4.2%

↓ -0.1%

K 4.9%

P 4.2%

F 3.0%

Kalshi 4.9%

Vol $1.8K 4.8–4.9¢

Polymarket 4.2%

Vol $11.3K 4.1–4.2¢

ForecastEx 3.0%

Vol $0 3¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $29.0K Spread 2.1%

Agg 2.8%

↑ +0.4%

K 4.9%

F 4.0%

P 2.8%

Kalshi 4.9%

Vol $49 4.8–4.9¢

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Polymarket 2.8%

Vol $29.0K 2.7–2.9¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $35.1K Spread 4.7%

Agg 2.3%

↓ -2.5%

F 7.0%

K 3.4%

P 2.3%

ForecastEx 7.0%

Vol $0 7¢

Kalshi 3.4%

Vol $372 3.1–3.6¢

Polymarket 2.3%

Vol $34.7K 2.2–2.4¢

Thomas Massie

Vol $248 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $248 1.4–1.6¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $12.9K Spread 2.9%

Agg 1.2%

↓ -0.1%

F 4.0%

K 1.4%

P 1.2%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 1.4%

Vol $0 1.2–1.6¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $12.9K 1.1–1.2¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $7.5K Spread 2.5%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.3%

F 3.0%

P 1.1%

K 0.5%

ForecastEx 3.0%

Vol $0 3¢

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $7.5K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $9 0.5–0.6¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $62.5K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

P 1.1%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $62.4K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $100 0.4–0.5¢

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $7.2K Spread 0.2%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -1.1%

K 1.2%

P 1.0%

Kalshi 1.2%

Vol $135 1–1.3¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $7.1K 0.9–1¢

Ivanka Trump

Vol $41.9K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.2%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $41.9K 0.9–1¢

Rand Paul

Vol $21.1K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $21.1K 0.9–1¢

Brian Kemp

Vol $10.8K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.2%

K 0.9%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 0.9%

Vol $0 0.8–0.9¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $10.8K 0.8–0.9¢

Elon Musk

Vol $34.5K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

K 0.1%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $34.5K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.1%

Vol $1 0–0.1¢

John Thune

Vol $159.1K Spread 0.7%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.9%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $159.1K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $0 0.1–0.2¢

Josh Hawley

Vol $45.4K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.3%

P 0.9%

K 0.8%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $45.4K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.8%

Vol $0 0.7–0.8¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $21.4K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.5%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $21.4K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0.5–0.6¢

Elise Stefanik

Vol $19.7K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $19.7K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $0 0.1–0.2¢

Greg Abbott

Vol $21.0K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $21.0K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $0 0.3–0.4¢

Katie Britt

Vol $20.2K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.3%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $20.2K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.3%

Vol $0 0.2–0.4¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $20.7K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $20.7K 0.7–0.8¢

Matt Gaetz

Vol $28.3K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $28.3K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $0 0.1–0.2¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $260.8K Spread 3.6%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.2%

F 4.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $260.8K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $23 0.4–0.5¢

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $23.2K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $23.2K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $0 0.3–0.4¢

Steve Bannon

Vol $87.7K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $87.7K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $0 0.2–0.5¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $17.8K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -1.6%

K 0.9%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 0.9%

Vol $0 0.8–1¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $17.8K 0.7–0.8¢

Tom Brady

Vol $16.2K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $16.2K 0.7–0.8¢

Byron Donalds

Vol $15.3K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $15.3K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $0 0.3–0.4¢

Erika Kirk

Vol $26.9K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $26.9K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $0 0.2–0.5¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $29.2K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.1%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $29.2K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.1%

Vol $0 0–0.1¢

Mike Pence

Vol $25.6K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.3%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $25.6K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.3%

Vol $0 0.2–0.3¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
JDV J.D. Vance	36.0% ↓ -16.7%	5.5%	$41.6K	Kalshi 34.5% 34–35¢ Vol $7.6K	Polymarket 36.4% 36.3–36.4¢ Vol $34.0K	ForecastEx 40.0% 40¢ Vol $0
MR Marco Rubio	26.6% ↑ +17.1%	4.1%	$23.4K	Kalshi 29.5% 29–30¢ Vol $7.0K	Polymarket 25.4% 25.3–25.4¢ Vol $16.3K	ForecastEx 29.0% 29¢ Vol $0
TC Tucker Carlson	6.6% ↑ +3.9%	0.7%	$26.4K	Kalshi 5.9% 5.9–6¢ Vol $810	Polymarket 6.7% 6.6–6.7¢ Vol $25.6K	ForecastEx — —
RD Ron DeSantis	4.2% ↓ -0.1%	1.9%	$13.2K	Kalshi 4.9% 4.8–4.9¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket 4.2% 4.1–4.2¢ Vol $11.3K	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢ Vol $0
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	2.8% ↑ +0.4%	2.1%	$29.0K	Kalshi 4.9% 4.8–4.9¢ Vol $49	Polymarket 2.8% 2.7–2.9¢ Vol $29.0K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
DJT Donald J. Trump	2.3% ↓ -2.5%	4.7%	$35.1K	Kalshi 3.4% 3.1–3.6¢ Vol $372	Polymarket 2.3% 2.2–2.4¢ Vol $34.7K	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
TM Thomas Massie	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$248	Kalshi 1.5% 1.4–1.6¢ Vol $248	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
GY Glenn Youngkin	1.2% ↓ -0.1%	2.9%	$12.9K	Kalshi 1.4% 1.2–1.6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $12.9K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
TG Tulsi Gabbard	1.0% ↑ +0.3%	2.5%	$7.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $9	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $7.5K	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢ Vol $0
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.0% — +0.0%	0.6%	$62.5K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $100	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $62.4K	ForecastEx — —
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	1.0% ↓ -1.1%	0.2%	$7.2K	Kalshi 1.2% 1–1.3¢ Vol $135	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $7.1K	ForecastEx — —
IT Ivanka Trump	1.0% ↓ -0.2%	—	$41.9K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $41.9K	ForecastEx — —
RP Rand Paul	1.0% ↑ +0.2%	—	$21.1K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $21.1K	ForecastEx — —
BK Brian Kemp	0.9% ↓ -0.2%	0.0%	$10.8K	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $10.8K	ForecastEx — —
EM Elon Musk	0.9% — +0.0%	0.8%	$34.5K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $34.5K	ForecastEx — —
JT John Thune	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	0.7%	$159.1K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $159.1K	ForecastEx — —
JH Josh Hawley	0.9% ↓ -0.3%	0.1%	$45.4K	Kalshi 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $45.4K	ForecastEx — —
NH Nikki Haley	0.9% ↓ -0.5%	0.3%	$21.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $21.4K	ForecastEx — —
ES Elise Stefanik	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.6%	$19.7K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $19.7K	ForecastEx — —
GA Greg Abbott	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$21.0K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $21.0K	ForecastEx — —
KB Katie Britt	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$20.2K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $20.2K	ForecastEx — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.8% ↓ -0.1%	—	$20.7K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $20.7K	ForecastEx — —
MG Matt Gaetz	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.6%	$28.3K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $28.3K	ForecastEx — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.8% ↓ -0.2%	3.6%	$260.8K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $23	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $260.8K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$23.2K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $23.2K	ForecastEx — —
SB Steve Bannon	0.8% ↓ -0.2%	0.4%	$87.7K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.2–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $87.7K	ForecastEx — —
TC Ted Cruz	0.8% ↓ -1.6%	0.1%	$17.8K	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $17.8K	ForecastEx — —
TB Tom Brady	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	—	$16.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $16.2K	ForecastEx — —
BD Byron Donalds	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.3%	$15.3K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $15.3K	ForecastEx — —
EK Erika Kirk	0.7% ↓ -0.1%	0.3%	$26.9K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.2–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $26.9K	ForecastEx — —
KN Kristi Noem	0.7% — +0.0%	0.6%	$29.2K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $29.2K	ForecastEx — —
MP Mike Pence	0.7% — +0.0%	0.4%	$25.6K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $25.6K	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 25.4¢	Sell @ K 29¢	+3.60%	+3.31%	Yes
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.9¢	Sell @ K 4.8¢	+1.90%	+1.83%	Yes
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 35¢	Sell @ P 36.3¢	+1.30%	+0.95%	No
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.4¢	Sell @ K 3.1¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No
TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 6¢	Sell @ P 6.6¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.2¢	Sell @ K 4.8¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
KN Kristi Noem	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
KB Katie Britt	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
MP Mike Pence	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
NH Nikki Haley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
SB Steve Bannon	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 1.2¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
JH Josh Hawley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.8¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 0.8¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 0.8¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket	A 36.4%	B 1.0%	+35.40%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket	A 36.4%	B 1.1%	+35.30%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 36.4%	B 1.1%	+35.30%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 36.4%	B 1.2%	+35.20%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 36.4%	B 2.3%	+34.05%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 34.5%	B 0.9%	+33.60%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 36.4%	B 2.8%	+33.55%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 34.5%	B 1.2%	+33.35%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 34.5%	B 1.4%	+33.10%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 34.5%	B 1.5%	+33.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 36.4%	B 4.2%	+32.20%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 34.5%	B 3.4%	+31.15%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 36.4%	B 6.7%	+29.70%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 34.5%	B 4.9%	+29.65%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 34.5%	B 4.9%	+29.65%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 0.9%	+28.60%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 34.5%	B 5.9%	+28.55%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 1.2%	+28.35%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 1.4%	+28.10%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 1.5%	+28.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 3.4%	+26.15%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 4.9%	+24.65%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 4.9%	+24.65%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket	A 25.4%	B 1.0%	+24.40%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket	A 25.4%	B 1.1%	+24.30%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 25.4%	B 1.1%	+24.30%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 25.4%	B 1.2%	+24.20%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 5.9%	+23.55%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 25.4%	B 2.3%	+23.05%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 25.4%	B 2.8%	+22.55%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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