Prediction Markets 2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

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Updated 7 minutes ago · 6:44 PM PDT

Democratic Presidential Odds Republican VP Odds

J.D. Vance continues to lead the 2028 Republican nomination at 41.0%, but his lead has narrowed since January as Iran-war backlash tests his MAGA standing. Marjorie Taylor Greene broke ranks in March to float Tucker Carlson as an alternative. Marco Rubio has closed the gap to 28.0% on a 35% CPAC straw-poll finish and a central role in Iran diplomacy that Vance has stepped back from. Tucker Carlson sits at 3.0% likely due to his "zero ambition," but kept in play by Trump's public break with him and the MAGA fracture over Iran. The Republican nominee market has traded $1.0M in the last 24 hours. Our custom Republican Nominee odds blends live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Forecastex into a single consensus probability, refreshed hourly.

Largest Spread

2.23%

Ron DeSantis → View arbs

Current Favorite

41.0%

J.D. Vance 10.2%

24H Volume (Share)

$1.1M

Momentum Leader

+17.4%

Marco Rubio YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $22.9K Spread 1.3%

Agg 41.0%

↓ -10.2%

P 41.9%

F 41.0%

K 40.5%

Marco Rubio

Vol $22.9K Spread 9.0%

Agg 28.0%

↑ +17.4%

F 36.0%

K 29.5%

P 27.0%

Vol $13.8K 26.7–27.3¢

Tucker Carlson

Vol $2.1K Spread 0.8%

Agg 3.0%

↑ +0.2%

P 3.1%

K 2.3%

Ron DeSantis

Vol $2.8K Spread 2.5%

Agg 2.8%

↓ -1.4%

K 5.0%

F 4.0%

P 2.5%

Thomas Massie

Vol $567 Spread —

Agg 1.7%

↑ +0.2%

K 1.7%

Kalshi 1.7%

Vol $567 1.6–1.7¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $4.8K Spread 5.5%

Agg 1.6%

↓ -2.9%

F 7.0%

K 2.9%

P 1.6%

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $26.4K Spread 2.5%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -0.9%

F 4.0%

K 3.9%

P 1.5%

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $3.1K Spread 3.1%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.4%

F 4.0%

P 1.1%

K 0.9%

Ivanka Trump

Vol $16.6K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.1%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $16.6K 0.9–1¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $8.2K Spread 0.1%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -1.5%

K 1.0%

P 1.0%

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $7.4K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Elon Musk

Vol $3.3K Spread 0.7%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.9%

K 0.2%

Rand Paul

Vol $3.4K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $3.4K 0.8–0.9¢

Brian Kemp

Vol $5.8K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.3%

K 0.8%

P 0.8%

Byron Donalds

Vol $10.0K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

Greg Abbott

Vol $12.2K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $3.3K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -1.9%

K 1.0%

P 0.8%

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $3.6K Spread 3.7%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.2%

F 4.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $4.7K Spread 4.5%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.4%

F 5.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Elise Stefanik

Vol $7.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.3%

Erika Kirk

Vol $10.2K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.4%

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $19.4K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Josh Hawley

Vol $3.4K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.6%

↓ -0.6%

K 0.9%

P 0.5%

Steve Bannon

Vol $8.8K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.4%

P 0.5%

K 0.4%

Tom Brady

Vol $11.5K Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $11.5K 0.5–0.6¢

John Thune

Vol $19.1K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.4%

K 0.2%

Katie Britt

Vol $6.0K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.4%

K 0.3%

Kim Kardashian

Vol $4.6K Spread —

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.4%

P 0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $4.6K 0.4–0.5¢

Matt Gaetz

Vol $10.5K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.4%

K 0.2%

Nikki Haley

Vol $16.5K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.8%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kristi Noem

Vol $339.7K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.3%

P 0.4%

K 0.2%

Mike Pence

Vol $444.9K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.2%

K 0.4%

P 0.4%

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
JDV J.D. Vance	41.0% ↓ -10.2%	1.3%	$22.9K	Kalshi 40.5% 40–41¢ Vol $14.3K	Polymarket 41.9% 41.8–41.9¢ Vol $8.4K	ForecastEx 41.0% 41¢ Vol $121
MR Marco Rubio	28.0% ↑ +17.4%	9.0%	$22.9K	Kalshi 29.5% 29–30¢ Vol $9.0K	Polymarket 27.0% 26.7–27.3¢ Vol $13.8K	ForecastEx 36.0% 36¢ Vol $0
TC Tucker Carlson	3.0% ↑ +0.2%	0.8%	$2.1K	Kalshi 2.3% 2–2.5¢ Vol $189	Polymarket 3.1% 3–3.1¢ Vol $1.9K	ForecastEx — —
RD Ron DeSantis	2.8% ↓ -1.4%	2.5%	$2.8K	Kalshi 5.0% 4.8–5.1¢ Vol $379	Polymarket 2.5% 2.4–2.5¢ Vol $2.4K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
TM Thomas Massie	1.7% ↑ +0.2%	—	$567	Kalshi 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $567	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
DJT Donald J. Trump	1.6% ↓ -2.9%	5.5%	$4.8K	Kalshi 2.9% 2.8–3¢ Vol $128	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $4.7K	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	1.5% ↓ -0.9%	2.5%	$26.4K	Kalshi 3.9% 3.7–4¢ Vol $94	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.6¢ Vol $26.3K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
GY Glenn Youngkin	1.0% ↓ -0.4%	3.1%	$3.1K	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–1¢ Vol $1.0K	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $2.1K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
IT Ivanka Trump	1.0% ↓ -0.1%	—	$16.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $16.6K	ForecastEx — —
TC Ted Cruz	1.0% ↓ -1.5%	0.1%	$8.2K	Kalshi 1.0% 0.9–1.1¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $8.2K	ForecastEx — —
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.0% — +0.0%	0.4%	$7.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $7.4K	ForecastEx — —
EM Elon Musk	0.9% ↑ +0.1%	0.7%	$3.3K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $3.3K	ForecastEx — —
RP Rand Paul	0.9% ↑ +0.1%	—	$3.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $3.4K	ForecastEx — —
BK Brian Kemp	0.8% ↓ -0.3%	0.0%	$5.8K	Kalshi 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $65	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $5.7K	ForecastEx — —
BD Byron Donalds	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$10.0K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $10.0K	ForecastEx — —
GA Greg Abbott	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$12.2K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $12.2K	ForecastEx — —
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.8% ↓ -1.9%	0.2%	$3.3K	Kalshi 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $3.3K	ForecastEx — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.8% ↓ -0.2%	3.7%	$3.6K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $3.6K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.8% ↓ -0.4%	4.5%	$4.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $4.7K	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
ES Elise Stefanik	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$7.8K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $7.8K	ForecastEx — —
EK Erika Kirk	0.7% ↓ -0.1%	0.2%	$10.2K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.2–0.6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $10.2K	ForecastEx — —
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$19.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $19.4K	ForecastEx — —
JH Josh Hawley	0.6% ↓ -0.6%	0.3%	$3.4K	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $3.4K	ForecastEx — —
SB Steve Bannon	0.5% ↓ -0.4%	0.2%	$8.8K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $8.8K	ForecastEx — —
TB Tom Brady	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$11.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $11.5K	ForecastEx — —
JT John Thune	0.4% ↓ -0.1%	0.3%	$19.1K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $19.1K	ForecastEx — —
KB Katie Britt	0.4% ↓ -0.1%	0.2%	$6.0K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.1–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $6.0K	ForecastEx — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.4% ↓ -0.4%	—	$4.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $4.6K	ForecastEx — —
MG Matt Gaetz	0.4% ↓ -0.1%	0.3%	$10.5K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $10.5K	ForecastEx — —
NH Nikki Haley	0.4% ↓ -0.8%	0.1%	$16.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $6	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $16.5K	ForecastEx — —
KN Kristi Noem	0.4% ↓ -0.3%	0.2%	$339.7K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $339.7K	ForecastEx — —
MP Mike Pence	0.4% ↓ -0.2%	0.1%	$444.9K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $444.9K	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.5¢	Sell @ K 4.8¢	+2.30%	+2.23%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 3.7¢	+2.10%	+2.03%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 27.3¢	Sell @ K 29¢	+1.70%	+1.41%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2.8¢	+1.20%	+1.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2.5¢	Sell @ P 3¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 41¢	Sell @ P 41.8¢	+0.80%	+0.39%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JH Josh Hawley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.6¢	Sell @ K 0.8¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.4¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.4¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SB Steve Bannon	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
KN Kristi Noem	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.3¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 0.9¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
KB Katie Britt	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.4¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
BK Brian Kemp	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.8¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0.4¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MP Mike Pence	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 0.3¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
JDV J.D. Vance	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 41.9%	B 1.0%	+40.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 41.9%	B 1.0%	+40.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 41.9%	B 1.0%	+40.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 41.9%	B 1.1%	+40.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 41.9%	B 1.5%	+40.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 41.9%	B 1.6%	+40.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 40.5%	B 0.9%	+39.60%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 40.5%	B 1.0%	+39.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 40.5%	B 1.0%	+39.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 41.9%	B 2.5%	+39.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 40.5%	B 1.7%	+38.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 41.9%	B 3.1%	+38.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 40.5%	B 2.3%	+38.25%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 40.5%	B 2.9%	+37.60%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 40.5%	B 3.9%	+36.65%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 40.5%	B 5.0%	+35.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 0.9%	+28.60%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 1.0%	+28.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 1.0%	+28.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 1.7%	+27.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 2.3%	+27.25%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 2.9%	+26.60%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 27.0%	B 1.0%	+26.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 27.0%	B 1.0%	+26.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 27.0%	B 1.0%	+26.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 27.0%	B 1.1%	+25.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 3.9%	+25.65%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 27.0%	B 1.5%	+25.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 27.0%	B 1.6%	+25.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 5.0%	+24.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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