Prediction Markets 2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

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Updated 5 minutes ago · 4:43 PM PDT

Democratic Presidential Odds Republican VP Odds

J.D. Vance continues to lead the 2028 Republican nomination at 48.9%, but his lead has narrowed since January as Iran-war backlash tests his MAGA standing. Marjorie Taylor Greene broke ranks in March to float Tucker Carlson as an alternative. Marco Rubio has closed the gap to 17.0% on a 35% CPAC straw-poll finish and a central role in Iran diplomacy that Vance has stepped back from. Donald J. Trump Jr. sits at 3.5% likely due to his "zero ambition," but kept in play by Trump's public break with him and the MAGA fracture over Iran. The Republican nominee market has traded $52.8K in the last 24 hours. Our custom Republican Nominee odds blends live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Forecastex into a single consensus probability, refreshed hourly.

Largest Spread

6.02%

J.D. Vance → View arbs

Current Favorite

49.7%

J.D. Vance 1.5%

24H Volume (Share)

$69.4K

Momentum Leader

+7.1%

Marco Rubio YTD change

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $6.3K Spread 9.2%

Agg 48.9%

↓ -1.5%

P 51.2%

K 45.5%

G 44.5%

F 42.0%

Marco Rubio

Vol $17.5K Spread 12.6%

Agg 17.0%

↑ +7.1%

F 29.0%

K 20.5%

G 20.5%

P 16.4%

Vol $15.0K 16.2–16.6¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump Jr.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 3.5%

— +0.0%

G 3.5%

Gemini 3.5%

Vol $0 3–4¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $664 Spread 2.5%

Agg 3.2%

↓ -0.5%

F 4.0%

K 3.4%

P 1.6%

Tucker Carlson

Vol $3.1K Spread 0.7%

Agg 3.0%

↑ +0.3%

P 3.6%

K 2.8%

Ron DeSantis

Vol $4.6K Spread 7.7%

Agg 2.6%

↓ -1.6%

F 10.0%

G 4.5%

K 4.5%

P 2.4%

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $280 Spread 5.1%

Agg 2.2%

↓ -2.4%

F 7.0%

G 2.5%

K 2.3%

P 2.0%

Ted Cruz

Vol $2.1K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.8%

↓ -0.6%

K 1.8%

P 1.8%

G 1.5%

Thomas Massie

Vol $2 Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.1%

↓ -0.4%

G 1.5%

K 1.1%

Ivanka Trump

Vol $123 Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $123 0.8–0.9¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $1.1K Spread 3.6%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.7%

F 4.0%

G 1.5%

K 1.0%

P 0.4%

Nikki Haley

Vol $210 Spread 1.4%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.8%

G 1.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $0 Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.6%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

Brian Kemp

Vol $462 Spread 1.2%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.7%

G 1.5%

K 0.8%

P 0.4%

Greg Abbott

Vol $6.3K Spread 1.4%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.3%

G 1.5%

K 0.6%

P 0.2%

Josh Hawley

Vol $152 Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.8%

K 0.9%

P 0.4%

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $85 Spread 1.2%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -2.3%

G 1.5%

K 0.8%

P 0.4%

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $168 Spread 3.7%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.6%

F 4.0%

K 0.4%

P 0.4%

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $56 Spread 4.7%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.8%

F 5.0%

P 0.4%

K 0.3%

Byron Donalds

Vol $311 Spread 1.3%

Agg 0.3%

↓ -0.3%

G 1.5%

K 0.4%

P 0.3%

Rand Paul

Vol $126 Spread —

Agg 0.3%

↓ -0.5%

P 0.3%

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $126 0.2–0.3¢

Steve Bannon

Vol $186 Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.8%

K 0.3%

P 0.2%

Elise Stefanik

Vol $342 Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.4%

K 0.2%

P 0.2%

Katie Britt

Vol $337 Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.4%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kim Kardashian

Vol $32 Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.7%

P 0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $32 0.1–0.2¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $1.1K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.5%

P 0.2%

K 0.1%

Mike Pence

Vol $451 Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.4%

K 0.4%

P 0.2%

Tom Brady

Vol $83 Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.4%

P 0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $83 0.1–0.2¢

John Thune

Vol $0 Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.4%

K 0.2%

P 0.1%

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $22.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.6%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Elon Musk

Vol $6 Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.7%

K 0.2%

P 0.1%

Erika Kirk

Vol $274 Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.7%

K 0.1%

P 0.1%

Matt Gaetz

Vol $1.0K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.5%

K 0.1%

P 0.1%

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	ForecastEx
JDV J.D. Vance	48.9% ↓ -1.5%	9.2%	$6.3K	Kalshi 45.5% 45–46¢ Vol $2.3K	Polymarket 51.2% 51.2–51.3¢ Vol $3.8K	Gemini 44.5% 44–45¢ Vol $190	ForecastEx 42.0% 42¢ Vol $0
MR Marco Rubio	17.0% ↑ +7.1%	12.6%	$17.5K	Kalshi 20.5% 20–21¢ Vol $2.5K	Polymarket 16.4% 16.2–16.6¢ Vol $15.0K	Gemini 20.5% 20–21¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx 29.0% 29¢ Vol $0
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	3.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	3.2% ↓ -0.5%	2.5%	$664	Kalshi 3.4% 3.3–3.4¢ Vol $625	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $38	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
TC Tucker Carlson	3.0% ↑ +0.3%	0.7%	$3.1K	Kalshi 2.8% 2.7–2.9¢ Vol $2.2K	Polymarket 3.6% 3.5–3.6¢ Vol $872	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
RD Ron DeSantis	2.6% ↓ -1.6%	7.7%	$4.6K	Kalshi 4.5% 4.4–4.5¢ Vol $576	Polymarket 2.4% 2.3–2.4¢ Vol $4.0K	Gemini 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx 10.0% 10¢ Vol $0
DJT Donald J. Trump	2.2% ↓ -2.4%	5.1%	$280	Kalshi 2.3% 2.2–2.3¢ Vol $205	Polymarket 2.0% 1.9–2¢ Vol $73	Gemini 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $2	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
TC Ted Cruz	1.8% ↓ -0.6%	0.4%	$2.1K	Kalshi 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $2.0K	Polymarket 1.8% 1.7–1.8¢ Vol $80	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
TM Thomas Massie	1.1% ↓ -0.4%	0.4%	$2	Kalshi 1.1% 1–1.2¢ Vol $2	Polymarket — —	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
IT Ivanka Trump	0.9% ↓ -0.2%	—	$123	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $123	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
GY Glenn Youngkin	0.7% ↓ -0.7%	3.6%	$1.1K	Kalshi 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $544	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $515	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
NH Nikki Haley	0.5% ↓ -0.8%	1.4%	$210	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $185	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $25	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	0.4% ↓ -0.6%	0.3%	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
BK Brian Kemp	0.4% ↓ -0.7%	1.2%	$462	Kalshi 0.8% 0.6–0.9¢ Vol $28	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $434	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
GA Greg Abbott	0.4% ↓ -0.3%	1.4%	$6.3K	Kalshi 0.6% 0.5–0.7¢ Vol $3.1K	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $3.3K	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
JH Josh Hawley	0.4% ↓ -0.8%	0.5%	$152	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $152	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.4% ↓ -2.3%	1.2%	$85	Kalshi 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $85	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.4% ↓ -0.6%	3.7%	$168	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $46	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $123	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.4% ↓ -0.8%	4.7%	$56	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $56	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
BD Byron Donalds	0.3% ↓ -0.3%	1.3%	$311	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $311	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
RP Rand Paul	0.3% ↓ -0.5%	—	$126	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $126	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
SB Steve Bannon	0.2% ↓ -0.8%	0.1%	$186	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.3¢ Vol $186	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
ES Elise Stefanik	0.2% ↓ -0.4%	0.0%	$342	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $342	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
KB Katie Britt	0.2% ↓ -0.4%	0.4%	$337	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $337	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.2% ↓ -0.7%	—	$32	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $32	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
KN Kristi Noem	0.2% ↓ -0.5%	0.1%	$1.1K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $1.1K	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
MP Mike Pence	0.2% ↓ -0.4%	0.3%	$451	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $451	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
TB Tom Brady	0.2% ↓ -0.4%	—	$83	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $83	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
JT John Thune	0.1% ↓ -0.4%	0.1%	$0	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.1% ↓ -0.6%	0.5%	$22.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $2.0K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $20.0K	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
EM Elon Musk	0.1% ↓ -0.7%	0.1%	$6	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $6	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
EK Erika Kirk	0.1% ↓ -0.7%	0.1%	$274	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $274	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
MG Matt Gaetz	0.1% ↓ -0.5%	0.0%	$1.0K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $1.0K	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
JDV J.D. Vance	Gemini → Polymarket	Buy @ G 45¢	Sell @ P 51.2¢	+6.20%	+6.02%	Yes	G ↗︎ P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Gemini	Buy @ P 16.6¢	Sell @ G 20¢	+3.40%	+3.32%	Yes	P ↗︎ G ↗︎
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.4¢	Sell @ K 4.4¢	+2.00%	+1.93%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 3.3¢	+1.70%	+1.63%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket → Gemini	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ G 1¢	+0.80%	+0.80%	No	P ↗︎ G ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Polymarket → Gemini	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ G 1¢	+0.80%	+0.80%	No	P ↗︎ G ↗︎
BD Byron Donalds	Polymarket → Gemini	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ G 1¢	+0.70%	+0.70%	No	P ↗︎ G ↗︎
BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket → Gemini	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ G 1¢	+0.60%	+0.60%	No	P ↗︎ G ↗︎
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket → Gemini	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ G 1¢	+0.60%	+0.60%	No	P ↗︎ G ↗︎
TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2.9¢	Sell @ P 3.5¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Gemini	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ G 1¢	+0.50%	+0.50%	No	P ↗︎ G ↗︎
JH Josh Hawley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 0.8¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0.5¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0.5¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KB Katie Britt	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0.4¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MP Mike Pence	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0.4¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2¢	Sell @ K 2.2¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.8¢	Sell @ K 1.8¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KN Kristi Noem	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.1¢	Sell @ P 0.1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JT John Thune	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0.1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
EM Elon Musk	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0.1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
EK Erika Kirk	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MG Matt Gaetz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.3¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.3¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SB Steve Bannon	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0.2¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.1¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi → Gemini	Buy @ K 1.2¢	Sell @ G 1¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	K ↗︎ G ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
JDV J.D. Vance	BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket	A 51.2%	B 0.4%	+50.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 51.2%	B 0.4%	+50.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 51.2%	B 0.9%	+50.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 51.2%	B 1.6%	+49.70%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 51.2%	B 1.8%	+49.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 51.2%	B 2.0%	+49.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 51.2%	B 2.4%	+48.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 51.2%	B 3.6%	+47.70%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	JH Josh Hawley	Kalshi	A 45.5%	B 0.9%	+44.65%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 45.5%	B 1.0%	+44.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 45.5%	B 1.1%	+44.40%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 45.5%	B 1.8%	+43.65%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 45.5%	B 2.3%	+43.25%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 1.5%	+43.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TM Thomas Massie	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 1.5%	+43.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 1.5%	+43.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	NH Nikki Haley	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 1.5%	+43.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	BK Brian Kemp	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 1.5%	+43.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 45.5%	B 2.8%	+42.70%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 45.5%	B 3.4%	+42.15%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 2.5%	+42.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 45.5%	B 4.5%	+41.05%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 3.5%	+41.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 4.5%	+40.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket	A 51.2%	B 16.4%	+34.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi	A 45.5%	B 20.5%	+25.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Gemini	A 44.5%	B 20.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JH Josh Hawley	Kalshi	A 20.5%	B 0.9%	+19.65%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 20.5%	B 1.0%	+19.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 20.5%	B 1.1%	+19.40%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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