Prediction Markets 2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

LIVE

Updated 5 minutes ago · 12:44 PM PDT

Democratic Presidential Odds Republican VP Odds

J.D. Vance continues to lead the 2028 Republican nomination at 44.6%, but his lead has narrowed since January as Iran-war backlash tests his MAGA standing. Marjorie Taylor Greene broke ranks in March to float Tucker Carlson as an alternative. Marco Rubio has closed the gap to 29.1% on a 35% CPAC straw-poll finish and a central role in Iran diplomacy that Vance has stepped back from. Ron DeSantis sits at 3.1% likely due to his "zero ambition," but kept in play by Trump's public break with him and the MAGA fracture over Iran. The Republican nominee market has traded $408.7K in the last 24 hours. Our custom Republican Nominee odds blends live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Forecastex into a single consensus probability, refreshed hourly.

Largest Spread

3.80%

J.D. Vance → View arbs

Current Favorite

44.6%

J.D. Vance 6.7%

24H Volume (Share)

$411.4K

Momentum Leader

+19.3%

Marco Rubio YTD change

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

Loading lines...

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $80.5K Spread 5.1%

Agg 44.6%

↓ -6.7%

P 44.6%

F 41.0%

K 39.5%

Marco Rubio

Vol $2.4K Spread 9.5%

Agg 29.1%

↑ +19.3%

K 29.5%

P 27.8%

F 20.0%

Ron DeSantis

Vol $298 Spread 2.4%

Agg 3.1%

↓ -1.1%

K 5.4%

F 4.0%

P 3.1%

Tucker Carlson

Vol $28 Spread 0.6%

Agg 2.2%

↓ -0.5%

K 2.3%

P 1.7%

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $686 Spread 4.8%

Agg 2.2%

↓ -2.3%

F 7.0%

K 2.6%

P 2.2%

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $1.3K Spread 2.8%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -1.0%

F 4.0%

K 3.8%

P 1.3%

Thomas Massie

Vol $51 Spread —

Agg 1.3%

↓ -0.2%

K 1.3%

Kalshi 1.3%

Vol $51 1.2–1.3¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $0 Spread 3.1%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.4%

F 4.0%

K 1.1%

P 1.0%

Ted Cruz

Vol $1.1K Spread 0.2%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -1.5%

K 1.2%

P 1.0%

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $80 Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

P 1.0%

K 0.4%

Ivanka Trump

Vol $685 Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $685 0.8–0.9¢

Elon Musk

Vol $2.5K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.2%

Rand Paul

Vol $49 Spread —

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $49 0.7–0.8¢

Greg Abbott

Vol $295 Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

Byron Donalds

Vol $1.2K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.4%

Josh Hawley

Vol $96 Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.6%

↓ -0.6%

K 0.9%

P 0.4%

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $361 Spread 3.7%

Agg 0.6%

↓ -0.4%

F 4.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.4%

Brian Kemp

Vol $89 Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.5%

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $32 Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -2.1%

K 1.0%

P 0.5%

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $38.3K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.1%

K 0.6%

P 0.5%

Elise Stefanik

Vol $20.2K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.4%

K 0.3%

Steve Bannon

Vol $67 Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.5%

K 0.4%

P 0.4%

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $6.8K Spread 4.6%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.7%

F 5.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Erika Kirk

Vol $1.0K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.4%

K 0.4%

P 0.4%

Katie Britt

Vol $167 Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.4%

K 0.3%

Mike Pence

Vol $1.3K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.4%

K 0.3%

Nikki Haley

Vol $49 Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.9%

K 0.4%

P 0.4%

Kim Kardashian

Vol $341 Spread —

Agg 0.3%

↓ -0.6%

P 0.3%

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $341 0.2–0.3¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $184 Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.3%

↓ -0.4%

P 0.3%

K 0.2%

Matt Gaetz

Vol $1.5K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.3%

↓ -0.3%

P 0.3%

K 0.2%

Tom Brady

Vol $772 Spread —

Agg 0.3%

↓ -0.3%

P 0.3%

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $772 0.2–0.3¢

John Thune

Vol $248.9K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.4%

K 0.2%

P 0.2%

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
JDV J.D. Vance	44.6% ↓ -6.7%	5.1%	$80.5K	Kalshi 39.5% 39–40¢ Vol $504	Polymarket 44.6% 44.2–45¢ Vol $80.0K	ForecastEx 41.0% 41¢ Vol $0
MR Marco Rubio	29.1% ↑ +19.3%	9.5%	$2.4K	Kalshi 29.5% 29–30¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket 27.8% 27.7–27.8¢ Vol $579	ForecastEx 20.0% 20¢ Vol $0
RD Ron DeSantis	3.1% ↓ -1.1%	2.4%	$298	Kalshi 5.4% 5.3–5.5¢ Vol $6	Polymarket 3.1% 3–3.1¢ Vol $292	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
TC Tucker Carlson	2.2% ↓ -0.5%	0.6%	$28	Kalshi 2.3% 2.2–2.3¢ Vol $27	Polymarket 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $1	ForecastEx — —
DJT Donald J. Trump	2.2% ↓ -2.3%	4.8%	$686	Kalshi 2.6% 2.4–2.7¢ Vol $23	Polymarket 2.2% 2.1–2.3¢ Vol $663	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	1.5% ↓ -1.0%	2.8%	$1.3K	Kalshi 3.8% 3.7–3.8¢ Vol $105	Polymarket 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $1.2K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
TM Thomas Massie	1.3% ↓ -0.2%	—	$51	Kalshi 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $51	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
GY Glenn Youngkin	1.0% ↓ -0.4%	3.1%	$0	Kalshi 1.1% 0.9–1.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
TC Ted Cruz	1.0% ↓ -1.5%	0.2%	$1.1K	Kalshi 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $1.1K	ForecastEx — —
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.0% — +0.0%	0.5%	$80	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $80	ForecastEx — —
IT Ivanka Trump	0.9% ↓ -0.2%	—	$685	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $685	ForecastEx — —
EM Elon Musk	0.8% — +0.0%	0.6%	$2.5K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $2.5K	ForecastEx — —
RP Rand Paul	0.8% — +0.0%	—	$49	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $49	ForecastEx — —
GA Greg Abbott	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.3%	$295	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $294	ForecastEx — —
BD Byron Donalds	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.3%	$1.2K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $1.2K	ForecastEx — —
JH Josh Hawley	0.6% ↓ -0.6%	0.5%	$96	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $50	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.5¢ Vol $46	ForecastEx — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.6% ↓ -0.4%	3.7%	$361	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $93	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $267	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
BK Brian Kemp	0.5% ↓ -0.5%	0.0%	$89	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $89	ForecastEx — —
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.5% ↓ -2.1%	0.4%	$32	Kalshi 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $32	ForecastEx — —
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.5% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$38.3K	Kalshi 0.6% 0.5–0.7¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $38.3K	ForecastEx — —
ES Elise Stefanik	0.4% ↓ -0.1%	0.2%	$20.2K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $20.2K	ForecastEx — —
SB Steve Bannon	0.4% ↓ -0.5%	0.0%	$67	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $67	ForecastEx — —
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.4% ↓ -0.7%	4.6%	$6.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $6.8K	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
EK Erika Kirk	0.4% ↓ -0.4%	0.1%	$1.0K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $1.0K	ForecastEx — —
KB Katie Britt	0.4% ↓ -0.2%	0.1%	$167	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $167	ForecastEx — —
MP Mike Pence	0.4% ↓ -0.2%	0.1%	$1.3K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $1.3K	ForecastEx — —
NH Nikki Haley	0.4% ↓ -0.9%	0.0%	$49	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $8	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $41	ForecastEx — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.3% ↓ -0.6%	—	$341	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $341	ForecastEx — —
KN Kristi Noem	0.3% ↓ -0.4%	0.1%	$184	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $184	ForecastEx — —
MG Matt Gaetz	0.3% ↓ -0.3%	0.1%	$1.5K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $1.5K	ForecastEx — —
TB Tom Brady	0.3% ↓ -0.3%	—	$772	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $772	ForecastEx — —
JT John Thune	0.2% ↓ -0.4%	0.0%	$248.9K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $248.9K	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 40¢	Sell @ P 44.2¢	+4.20%	+3.80%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.3¢	Sell @ K 3.7¢	+2.40%	+2.33%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.1¢	Sell @ K 5.3¢	+2.20%	+2.13%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 27.8¢	Sell @ K 29¢	+1.20%	+0.91%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.7¢	Sell @ K 2.2¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JH Josh Hawley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0.8¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.6¢	Sell @ K 0.9¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.3¢	Sell @ K 2.4¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.4¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1.1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0.5¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
EK Erika Kirk	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 0.4¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KB Katie Britt	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.3¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MP Mike Pence	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.3¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
KN Kristi Noem	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.2¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.2¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
BK Brian Kemp	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.6¢	Sell @ K 0.5¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SB Steve Bannon	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.4¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.3¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.1¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
JDV J.D. Vance	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 44.6%	B 0.9%	+43.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 44.6%	B 1.0%	+43.65%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 44.6%	B 1.0%	+43.65%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 44.6%	B 1.0%	+43.65%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 44.6%	B 1.3%	+43.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 44.6%	B 1.7%	+42.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 44.6%	B 2.2%	+42.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 44.6%	B 3.1%	+41.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 39.5%	B 1.0%	+38.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 39.5%	B 1.1%	+38.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 39.5%	B 1.2%	+38.35%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 39.5%	B 1.3%	+38.25%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 39.5%	B 2.3%	+37.25%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 39.5%	B 2.6%	+36.95%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 39.5%	B 3.8%	+35.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 39.5%	B 5.4%	+34.10%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 1.0%	+28.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 1.1%	+28.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 1.2%	+28.35%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 1.3%	+28.25%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 2.3%	+27.25%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 2.6%	+26.95%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 27.8%	B 0.9%	+26.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 27.8%	B 1.0%	+26.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 27.8%	B 1.0%	+26.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 27.8%	B 1.0%	+26.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 27.8%	B 1.3%	+26.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 27.8%	B 1.7%	+26.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 29.5%	B 3.8%	+25.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 27.8%	B 2.2%	+25.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

Trending in politics
2028 Democratic Nominee Odds	Fed Decision April Odds
2028 Presidential Winner Odds	2028 Republican Nominee Odds
California Wealth Tax Odds of Passying	How Long Will Government Shutdown Last?
Next Attorney General Odds	2028 VP Republican Nominee Odds
Who Will Leave Their Role in Trump Administration?

Explore more categories

Sports

See today's top sports markets

Crypto

See today's top crypto and bitcoin markets

Mentions

See today's top mention markets

Politics

See today's top political markets

Culture

See today's top celebrity and entertainment markets

Economics

See today's prediction markets for global economy