2028 Republican Nominee Odds for PresidentJ.D. Vance leads Marco Rubio, 31% to 21%
Kalshi has J.D. Vance at 31% and Polymarket at 31%. Over the past week on Kalshi, Ron DeSantis gained the most, 15 points to 20%, and J.D. Vance lost 7 points, to 31%.
About 1 in 3 Down 7 pts this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (31%) and Polymarket (31%).
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $322 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 5 Up 4 pts this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (23%) and Polymarket (19%).
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $520 if correct, before fees.
2028 Republican presidential nominee
Kalshi: $781K (87%) · Polymarket: $121K (13%)
Kalshi: by Nov 7, 2028 · Polymarket: Nov 7, 2028
Prices to buy each outcome, or the last trade where no one is selling. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than an hour old is left out; with none newer, the latest one stands alone): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask, or its last trade; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Nov 4, 6:38 AM and 11:42 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Ron DeSantis: Kalshi 20% and Polymarket 15%. Our figure is their average.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Ron DeSantis gained the most, 15 points to 20%, and J.D. Vance lost 7 points, to 31%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 3 to Nov 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Nov 4, 11:42 AM ET).
Where to trade the 2028 Republican presidential nomination
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