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2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

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Updated 30 minutes ago · 8:40 AM PST

Prediction markets have J.D. Vance as the favorite candidate to win the 2028 Republican nominee race, with a 50.9% probability or, -104 odds. Marco Rubio holds second at 14.9% (+569) , while Donald J. Trump sits in third at 4.1% (+2,342). Total volume for Republican Nominee market at Kalshi and Polymarket stands at $2.7M in the last 24 hours with $2.2K on Kalshi and $2.7M on Polymarket. Our odds tracker aggregates live pricing to show consensus probabilities across prediction markets, updated hourly with arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

2.52%

J.D. Vance → View arbs

Consensus Leader

50.9%

J.D. Vance

24H Volume (Share)

$2.7M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $7.5K Spread 4.5%

Agg 50.9%

↓ -0.2%

P 51.5%

K 47.5%

F 47.0%

Polymarket 51.5%

Vol $6.4K 51–52¢

Kalshi 47.5%

Vol $1.1K 47–48¢

ForecastEx 47.0%

Vol $0 47¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $8.5K Spread 2.7%

Agg 14.9%

↓ -0.4%

K 17.5%

F 16.0%

P 14.8%

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $615 17–18¢

ForecastEx 16.0%

Vol $0 16¢

Polymarket 14.8%

Vol $7.9K 14.7–14.8¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $36.0K Spread 3.5%

Agg 4.1%

↓ -0.2%

F 7.0%

P 4.1%

K 3.5%

ForecastEx 7.0%

Vol $0 7¢

Polymarket 4.1%

Vol $35.7K 4–4.2¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $259 3–4¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $29.9K Spread 0.7%

Agg 2.9%

↓ -0.1%

K 3.5%

F 3.0%

P 2.9%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $21 3–4¢

ForecastEx 3.0%

Vol $0 3¢

Polymarket 2.9%

Vol $29.9K 2.8–2.9¢

Tucker Carlson

Vol $6.0K Spread 0.7%

Agg 1.8%

↓ -0.2%

K 2.5%

P 1.8%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $12 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $6.0K 1.7–1.9¢

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $162.7K Spread 1.9%

Agg 1.7%

↓ -0.1%

K 3.5%

P 1.7%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $0 3–4¢

Polymarket 1.7%

Vol $162.7K 1.5–1.8¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $12.4K Spread 3.5%

Agg 1.6%

— +0.0%

F 5.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.6%

ForecastEx 5.0%

Vol $0 5¢

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $157 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.6%

Vol $12.3K 1.5–1.6¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $22.0K Spread 1.0%

Agg 1.6%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.6%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $2 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.6%

Vol $22.0K 1.5–1.6¢

Thomas Massie

Vol $25 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $25 1–2¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $25.7K Spread 2.8%

Agg 1.3%

— +0.0%

F 4.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.3%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $2 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.3%

Vol $25.7K 1.2–1.3¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $5.3K Spread 0.3%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.1%

K 1.5%

P 1.2%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $3 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $5.3K 1.1–1.3¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $53.0K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.2%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.2%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $10 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $53.0K 1.1–1.2¢

Brian Kemp

Vol $11.4K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.0%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $11.4K 0.9–1¢

Ivanka Trump

Vol $5.8K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.1%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $5.8K 0.9–1¢

Rand Paul

Vol $61.5K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $61.5K 0.8–1¢

Steve Bannon

Vol $93.7K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

K 1.5%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $93.7K 0.7–0.8¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $8.6K Spread 3.3%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

F 4.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.8%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $8.6K 0.7–0.8¢

Mike Pence

Vol $127.9K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $127.9K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Josh Hawley

Vol $32.1K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.1%

K 1.5%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $32.1K 0.7–0.8¢

Erika Kirk

Vol $29.1K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $29.1K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Tom Brady

Vol $68.8K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $68.8K 0.7–0.8¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $43.4K Spread 3.4%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

F 4.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $43.4K 0.6–0.7¢

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $62.3K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $2 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $62.3K 0.6–0.7¢

Matt Gaetz

Vol $108.2K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $108.2K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $354.2K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $354.2K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Katie Britt

Vol $309.2K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $309.2K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

John Thune

Vol $158.6K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $158.6K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Elise Stefanik

Vol $99.1K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $99.1K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Elon Musk

Vol $44.1K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $44.1K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Byron Donalds

Vol $147.4K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.7%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $147.4K 0.6–0.7¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $408.5K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $408.5K 0.6–0.7¢

Greg Abbott

Vol $118.2K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.6%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.6%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $2 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.6%

Vol $118.2K 0.5–0.7¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
JDV J.D. Vance	50.9% ↓ -0.2%	4.5%	$7.5K	Kalshi 47.5% 47–48¢ Vol $1.1K	Polymarket 51.5% 51–52¢ Vol $6.4K	ForecastEx 47.0% 47¢ Vol $0
MR Marco Rubio	14.9% ↓ -0.4%	2.7%	$8.5K	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $615	Polymarket 14.8% 14.7–14.8¢ Vol $7.9K	ForecastEx 16.0% 16¢ Vol $0
DJT Donald J. Trump	4.1% ↓ -0.2%	3.5%	$36.0K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $259	Polymarket 4.1% 4–4.2¢ Vol $35.7K	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
RD Ron DeSantis	2.9% ↓ -0.1%	0.7%	$29.9K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $21	Polymarket 2.9% 2.8–2.9¢ Vol $29.9K	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢ Vol $0
TC Tucker Carlson	1.8% ↓ -0.2%	0.7%	$6.0K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $12	Polymarket 1.8% 1.7–1.9¢ Vol $6.0K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	1.7% ↓ -0.1%	1.9%	$162.7K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.7% 1.5–1.8¢ Vol $162.7K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	1.6% — +0.0%	3.5%	$12.4K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $157	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $12.3K	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
TC Ted Cruz	1.6% — +0.0%	1.0%	$22.0K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $22.0K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
TM Thomas Massie	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$25	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $25	Polymarket — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
GY Glenn Youngkin	1.3% — +0.0%	2.8%	$25.7K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $25.7K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
NH Nikki Haley	1.2% ↑ +0.1%	0.3%	$5.3K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $3	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.3¢ Vol $5.3K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.2% — +0.0%	0.4%	$53.0K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $10	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $53.0K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
BK Brian Kemp	1.0% — +0.0%	0.5%	$11.4K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $11.4K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
IT Ivanka Trump	1.0% ↓ -0.1%	—	$5.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $5.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
RP Rand Paul	0.9% — +0.0%	—	$61.5K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–1¢ Vol $61.5K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
SB Steve Bannon	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.8%	$93.7K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $93.7K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.8% — +0.0%	3.3%	$8.6K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $8.6K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
MP Mike Pence	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.2%	$127.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $127.9K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JH Josh Hawley	0.8% ↓ -0.1%	0.8%	$32.1K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $32.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
EK Erika Kirk	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.2%	$29.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $29.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
TB Tom Brady	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	—	$68.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $68.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.7% — +0.0%	3.4%	$43.4K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $43.4K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.9%	$62.3K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $62.3K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
MG Matt Gaetz	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$108.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $108.2K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
KN Kristi Noem	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.1%	$354.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $354.2K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
KB Katie Britt	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.1%	$309.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $309.2K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JT John Thune	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$158.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $158.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
ES Elise Stefanik	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.1%	$99.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $99.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
EM Elon Musk	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$44.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $44.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
BD Byron Donalds	0.7% — +0.0%	0.9%	$147.4K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $147.4K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
KK Kim Kardashian	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	—	$408.5K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $408.5K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
GA Greg Abbott	0.6% — +0.0%	0.9%	$118.2K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 0.6% 0.5–0.7¢ Vol $118.2K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 48¢	Sell @ P 51¢	+3.00%	+2.52%	Yes
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 14.8¢	Sell @ K 17¢	+2.20%	+2.03%	Yes
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.8¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+1.20%	+1.13%	No
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.3¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
BD Byron Donalds	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
GA Greg Abbott	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
SB Steve Bannon	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
JH Josh Hawley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.9¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 4¢	Sell @ P 4¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.3¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
MP Mike Pence	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
KN Kristi Noem	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
KB Katie Britt	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
JDV J.D. Vance	NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket	A 51.50%	B 1.20%	+50.30%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 51.50%	B 1.25%	+50.25%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 51.50%	B 1.55%	+49.95%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 51.50%	B 1.55%	+49.95%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket	A 51.50%	B 1.65%	+49.85%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 51.50%	B 1.80%	+49.70%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 51.50%	B 2.85%	+48.65%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 51.50%	B 4.10%	+47.40%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 47.50%	B 1.50%	+46.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 47.50%	B 2.50%	+45.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 47.50%	B 2.50%	+45.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 47.50%	B 2.50%	+45.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 47.50%	B 2.50%	+45.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 47.50%	B 3.50%	+44.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 47.50%	B 3.50%	+44.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 47.50%	B 3.50%	+44.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket	A 51.50%	B 14.75%	+36.75%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi	A 47.50%	B 17.50%	+30.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 17.50%	B 1.50%	+16.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 17.50%	B 2.50%	+15.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 17.50%	B 2.50%	+15.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi	A 17.50%	B 2.50%	+15.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 17.50%	B 2.50%	+15.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 17.50%	B 3.50%	+14.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 17.50%	B 3.50%	+14.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 17.50%	B 3.50%	+14.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket	A 14.75%	B 1.20%	+13.55%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 14.75%	B 1.25%	+13.50%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 14.75%	B 1.55%	+13.20%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket	A 14.75%	B 1.55%	+13.20%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.