Prediction Markets 2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

2028 Republican Nominee Odds for President

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Updated 49 minutes ago · 4:00 AM PDT

Democratic Presidential Odds Republican VP Odds

J.D. Vance continues to lead the 2028 Republican nomination at 39.0%, but his lead has narrowed since January as Iran-war backlash tests his MAGA standing. Marjorie Taylor Greene broke ranks in March to float Tucker Carlson as an alternative. Marco Rubio has closed the gap to 21.4% on a 35% CPAC straw-poll finish and a central role in Iran diplomacy that Vance has stepped back from. Tucker Carlson sits at 7.6% likely due to his "zero ambition," but kept in play by Trump's public break with him and the MAGA fracture over Iran. The Republican nominee market has traded $1.2M in the last 24 hours. Our custom Republican Nominee odds blends live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Forecastex into a single consensus probability, refreshed hourly.

Largest Spread

2.53%

Donald Trump Jr. → View arbs

Current Favorite

39.0%

J.D. Vance 13.7%

24H Volume (Share)

$1.2M

Momentum Leader

+11.9%

Marco Rubio YTD change

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $25.5K Spread 2.5%

Agg 39.0%

↓ -13.7%

F 40.0%

P 39.2%

K 37.5%

ForecastEx 40.0%

Vol $0 40¢

Polymarket 39.2%

Vol $23.1K 39.1–39.2¢

Kalshi 37.5%

Vol $2.5K 37–38¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $23.9K Spread 2.3%

Agg 21.4%

↑ +11.9%

K 23.5%

F 23.0%

P 21.2%

Kalshi 23.5%

Vol $2.1K 23–24¢

ForecastEx 23.0%

Vol $0 23¢

Polymarket 21.2%

Vol $21.7K 21.1–21.2¢

Tucker Carlson

Vol $41.6K Spread 0.3%

Agg 7.6%

↑ +4.8%

K 7.8%

P 7.4%

Kalshi 7.8%

Vol $14.7K 7.7–7.8¢

Polymarket 7.4%

Vol $26.8K 7.4–7.5¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $41.8K Spread 3.5%

Agg 3.6%

↑ +1.1%

K 6.7%

F 4.0%

P 3.2%

Kalshi 6.7%

Vol $4.3K 5.9–7.4¢

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Polymarket 3.2%

Vol $37.5K 3.1–3.3¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $18.3K Spread 1.8%

Agg 2.4%

↓ -1.7%

K 4.2%

F 3.0%

P 2.4%

Kalshi 4.2%

Vol $180 4.1–4.2¢

ForecastEx 3.0%

Vol $0 3¢

Polymarket 2.4%

Vol $18.1K 2.3–2.4¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $55.1K Spread 5.2%

Agg 1.9%

↓ -2.9%

F 7.0%

K 3.4%

P 1.8%

ForecastEx 7.0%

Vol $0 7¢

Kalshi 3.4%

Vol $918 3.3–3.4¢

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $54.2K 1.8–1.9¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $58.6K Spread 2.5%

Agg 1.6%

↑ +0.4%

F 4.0%

K 1.8%

P 1.6%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 1.8%

Vol $15 1.8–1.9¢

Polymarket 1.6%

Vol $58.6K 1.5–1.6¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $19.6K Spread 1.0%

Agg 1.4%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.5%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $19.5K 1.4–1.5¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $9 0.4–0.5¢

Thomas Massie

Vol $426 Spread —

Agg 1.4%

↓ -0.1%

K 1.4%

Kalshi 1.4%

Vol $426 1.3–1.4¢

Ivanka Trump

Vol $42.4K Spread —

Agg 1.2%

— +0.0%

P 1.2%

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $42.4K 1.1–1.2¢

Rand Paul

Vol $60.5K Spread —

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.2%

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $60.5K 1.1–1.2¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $86.4K Spread 3.5%

Agg 1.1%

↑ +0.4%

F 4.0%

P 1.2%

K 0.5%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $86.4K 1.1–1.2¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $9 0.4–0.6¢

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $40.6K Spread 0.0%

Agg 1.1%

↓ -1.0%

K 1.1%

P 1.1%

Kalshi 1.1%

Vol $698 1–1.2¢

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $39.9K 1–1.1¢

Elon Musk

Vol $41.0K Spread 1.0%

Agg 1.1%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.1%

K 0.1%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $41.0K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.1%

Vol $1 0–0.1¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $46.3K Spread 0.3%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -1.3%

P 1.1%

K 0.8%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $46.2K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.8%

Vol $82 0.7–0.8¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $86.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.4%

P 1.0%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $86.0K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $1 0.4–0.5¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $29.3K Spread 3.6%

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

F 4.0%

P 1.0%

K 0.4%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $29.3K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $1 0.4–0.5¢

Elise Stefanik

Vol $14.4K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 1.0%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $14.4K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $2 0.1–0.2¢

Brian Kemp

Vol $24.4K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.2%

K 0.9%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 0.9%

Vol $1 0.8–0.9¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $24.4K 0.8–0.9¢

John Thune

Vol $31.4K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.9%

K 0.3%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $31.4K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.3%

Vol $1 0.2–0.3¢

Josh Hawley

Vol $21.7K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.3%

P 0.9%

K 0.8%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $21.7K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.8%

Vol $5 0.7–0.8¢

Greg Abbott

Vol $23.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.9%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $22.8K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $239 0.3–0.4¢

Katie Britt

Vol $34.0K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.3%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $34.0K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.3%

Vol $1 0.2–0.4¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $38.7K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $38.7K 0.7–0.8¢

Matt Gaetz

Vol $37.3K Spread 0.7%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.1%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $37.3K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.1%

Vol $0 0–0.1¢

Steve Bannon

Vol $40.0K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $40.0K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $0 0.2–0.5¢

Tom Brady

Vol $36.7K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $36.7K 0.7–0.8¢

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $38.5K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.3%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $38.5K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.3%

Vol $6 0.2–0.3¢

Erika Kirk

Vol $35.2K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $35.2K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $0 0.2–0.5¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $39.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $39.1K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $1 0.1–0.2¢

Mike Pence

Vol $36.9K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.6%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.3%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $36.9K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.3%

Vol $76 0.2–0.3¢

Byron Donalds

Vol $52.8K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.6%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $52.3K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $498 0.3–0.5¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
JDV J.D. Vance	39.0% ↓ -13.7%	2.5%	$25.5K	Kalshi 37.5% 37–38¢ Vol $2.5K	Polymarket 39.2% 39.1–39.2¢ Vol $23.1K	ForecastEx 40.0% 40¢ Vol $0
MR Marco Rubio	21.4% ↑ +11.9%	2.3%	$23.9K	Kalshi 23.5% 23–24¢ Vol $2.1K	Polymarket 21.2% 21.1–21.2¢ Vol $21.7K	ForecastEx 23.0% 23¢ Vol $0
TC Tucker Carlson	7.6% ↑ +4.8%	0.3%	$41.6K	Kalshi 7.8% 7.7–7.8¢ Vol $14.7K	Polymarket 7.4% 7.4–7.5¢ Vol $26.8K	ForecastEx — —
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	3.6% ↑ +1.1%	3.5%	$41.8K	Kalshi 6.7% 5.9–7.4¢ Vol $4.3K	Polymarket 3.2% 3.1–3.3¢ Vol $37.5K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
RD Ron DeSantis	2.4% ↓ -1.7%	1.8%	$18.3K	Kalshi 4.2% 4.1–4.2¢ Vol $180	Polymarket 2.4% 2.3–2.4¢ Vol $18.1K	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢ Vol $0
DJT Donald J. Trump	1.9% ↓ -2.9%	5.2%	$55.1K	Kalshi 3.4% 3.3–3.4¢ Vol $918	Polymarket 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $54.2K	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
GY Glenn Youngkin	1.6% ↑ +0.4%	2.5%	$58.6K	Kalshi 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $15	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $58.6K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.4% ↑ +0.4%	1.0%	$19.6K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $9	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.5¢ Vol $19.5K	ForecastEx — —
TM Thomas Massie	1.4% ↓ -0.1%	—	$426	Kalshi 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $426	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
IT Ivanka Trump	1.2% — +0.0%	—	$42.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $42.4K	ForecastEx — —
RP Rand Paul	1.2% ↑ +0.4%	—	$60.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $60.5K	ForecastEx — —
TG Tulsi Gabbard	1.1% ↑ +0.4%	3.5%	$86.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $9	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $86.4K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	1.1% ↓ -1.0%	0.0%	$40.6K	Kalshi 1.1% 1–1.2¢ Vol $698	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $39.9K	ForecastEx — —
EM Elon Musk	1.1% ↑ +0.2%	1.0%	$41.0K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $41.0K	ForecastEx — —
TC Ted Cruz	1.0% ↓ -1.3%	0.3%	$46.3K	Kalshi 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $82	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $46.2K	ForecastEx — —
NH Nikki Haley	1.0% ↓ -0.4%	0.5%	$86.0K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $86.0K	ForecastEx — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	1.0% — +0.0%	3.6%	$29.3K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $29.3K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
ES Elise Stefanik	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	0.8%	$14.4K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $14.4K	ForecastEx — —
BK Brian Kemp	0.9% ↓ -0.2%	0.0%	$24.4K	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $24.4K	ForecastEx — —
JT John Thune	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	0.6%	$31.4K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $31.4K	ForecastEx — —
JH Josh Hawley	0.9% ↓ -0.3%	0.1%	$21.7K	Kalshi 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $21.7K	ForecastEx — —
GA Greg Abbott	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.5%	$23.1K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $239	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $22.8K	ForecastEx — —
KB Katie Britt	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$34.0K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.4¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $34.0K	ForecastEx — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.8% ↓ -0.1%	—	$38.7K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $38.7K	ForecastEx — —
MG Matt Gaetz	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.7%	$37.3K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $37.3K	ForecastEx — —
SB Steve Bannon	0.8% ↓ -0.2%	0.4%	$40.0K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.2–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $40.0K	ForecastEx — —
TB Tom Brady	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	—	$36.7K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $36.7K	ForecastEx — —
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.5%	$38.5K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $6	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $38.5K	ForecastEx — —
EK Erika Kirk	0.7% ↓ -0.1%	0.3%	$35.2K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.2–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $35.2K	ForecastEx — —
KN Kristi Noem	0.7% — +0.0%	0.5%	$39.1K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $39.1K	ForecastEx — —
MP Mike Pence	0.6% — +0.0%	0.4%	$36.9K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $76	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $36.9K	ForecastEx — —
BD Byron Donalds	0.6% ↑ +0.1%	0.2%	$52.8K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.5¢ Vol $498	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $52.3K	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.3¢	Sell @ K 5.9¢	+2.60%	+2.53%	Yes
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.4¢	Sell @ K 4.1¢	+1.70%	+1.63%	Yes
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 21.2¢	Sell @ K 23¢	+1.80%	+1.57%	Yes
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 3.3¢	+1.40%	+1.33%	No
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 1.4¢	+0.90%	+0.83%	No
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.1¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.90%	+0.83%	No
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 38¢	Sell @ P 39.1¢	+1.10%	+0.72%	No
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
KN Kristi Noem	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
NH Nikki Haley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
KB Katie Britt	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
MP Mike Pence	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.8¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
SB Steve Bannon	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 1.8¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 7.5¢	Sell @ K 7.7¢	+0.20%	+0.12%	No
EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
JH Josh Hawley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.8¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 0.8¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
JDV J.D. Vance	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 39.2%	B 1.2%	+38.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RP Rand Paul	Polymarket	A 39.2%	B 1.2%	+38.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 39.2%	B 1.5%	+37.70%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 39.2%	B 1.6%	+37.60%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 39.2%	B 1.8%	+37.30%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 39.2%	B 2.4%	+36.80%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	BK Brian Kemp	Kalshi	A 37.5%	B 0.9%	+36.65%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 37.5%	B 1.1%	+36.40%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 37.5%	B 1.4%	+36.15%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 39.2%	B 3.2%	+35.95%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 37.5%	B 1.8%	+35.65%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 37.5%	B 3.4%	+34.15%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 37.5%	B 4.2%	+33.35%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 39.2%	B 7.4%	+31.70%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 37.5%	B 6.7%	+30.85%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Kalshi	A 37.5%	B 7.8%	+29.75%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	BK Brian Kemp	Kalshi	A 23.5%	B 0.9%	+22.65%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Kalshi	A 23.5%	B 1.1%	+22.40%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	TM Thomas Massie	Kalshi	A 23.5%	B 1.4%	+22.15%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 23.5%	B 1.8%	+21.65%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 23.5%	B 3.4%	+20.15%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 21.2%	B 1.2%	+20.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	RP Rand Paul	Polymarket	A 21.2%	B 1.2%	+20.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket	A 21.2%	B 1.5%	+19.70%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket	A 21.2%	B 1.6%	+19.60%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 23.5%	B 4.2%	+19.35%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 21.2%	B 1.8%	+19.30%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 21.2%	B 2.4%	+18.80%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket	A 39.2%	B 21.2%	+18.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 21.2%	B 3.2%	+17.95%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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