California Election Guide: Bass Regains Market Lead, Becerra at 97%, Wealth Tax Trails

Dek: More than $179 million has traded across three California markets as voters decide a volatile Los Angeles mayor’s race, the next governor and a proposed billionaire tax.

California’s election markets are offering three very different assessments this morning: a close Los Angeles mayor’s race, an overwhelming favorite for governor and long odds for a billionaire tax.

Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is back ahead in the Los Angeles mayor’s market at 58%, with $108.5 million traded. Xavier Becerra is at 97% to become California’s next governor on $69 million in volume. Proposition 40, the proposed billionaire wealth tax, has a 21% chance of passing, with $2.1 million traded.

Those Kalshi figures come in Tuesday before California polls open and put combined trading across the three markets at $179.6 million. They are probabilities of outcomes, not expected vote shares or election calls.

The contrast is particularly sharp in Los Angeles, where Bass has recovered from a double-digit polling deficit and regained the market lead. Becerra’s path was turbulent earlier in the year, while the wealth tax remains an underdog despite previously polling ahead.

Los Angeles mayor: Bass recovers, but the race remains close

Bass enters Election Day as a modest market favorite over City Councilmember Nithya Raman, not a secure incumbent.

The 58% price marks a recovery from approximately 38% a month ago. Kalshi’s Election Day analysis says the candidates traded the market lead three times in October, with Bass most recently moving ahead Oct. 28.

The polling has followed a similar reversal.

As DeFi Rate reported Oct. 1, Raman was trading at 60% after a Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times survey gave her a 39%-28% lead. But a third of likely voters remained undecided, a large enough pool to change the contest.

The final Berkeley IGS/Times survey showed that happening. Bass and Raman were tied at 40%, with 19% undecided. Conducted Oct. 19-25 among 2,197 likely city voters, the survey had a margin of error of approximately three percentage points.

That is a polling tie alongside a market leaning toward Bass, not evidence that either candidate has established a decisive advantage.

The voters Bass needed began moving

Former primary candidate Spencer Pratt’s supporters have been an important part of the runoff.

Pratt finished third in June with roughly 26%, drawing voters angry about the Palisades fire. In September, 63% of his supporters had not chosen between Bass and Raman. The final poll showed Bass gaining ground with that group, although many remained undecided.

Bass also received an unusual boost from her former opponent. Rick Caruso, whom she defeated in 2022, said he would vote for her, while stopping short of a formal endorsement.

Raman retains strong support among younger voters and the backing of the Los Angeles chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. Bass is stronger with older voters and draws on established Democratic and labor support. Their contest has centered on homelessness, housing, public safety and whether City Hall is delivering basic services.

The market’s recovery for Bass is substantial. The underlying election remains close enough that a 58% favorite should be read as precisely that, a slight favorite.

California governor: Becerra’s difficult path becomes a commanding market lead

Becerra’s 97% probability looks straightforward now. His route to the November ballot was not.

The former California attorney general and Biden administration health secretary emerged from a crowded Democratic field after Eric Swalwell’s scandal and campaign withdrawal reshaped the primary.

In DeFi Rate’s April coverage, Becerra had overtaken billionaire Tom Steyer as the market favorite but remained at only 41%-43%. Traders were still weighing whether a divided Democratic electorate could produce an unusual result under California’s top-two primary system.

By early May, Becerra was gaining in conventional polling, too. A California Democratic Party internal survey put him level with Republican Steve Hilton at 18%, while markets assigned Becerra roughly a 40% chance of eventually winning the governorship. Those figures measured different things: primary voter support and the likelihood of winning the entire election.

The primary produced the Becerra-Hilton matchup traders had increasingly anticipated. In DeFi Rate’s June follow-up, Becerra was already around 90%, and an early general election poll put him ahead 52% to 31%. 1219

His rise was late in the primary campaign, not a sudden Election Day surge. Today’s 97% price reflects how strongly traders favor him now that the field has narrowed to a Democrat and a Republican.

Hilton, a former Fox News host backed by President Donald Trump, is trying to succeed Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. Becerra’s overwhelming market advantage does not mean traders expect him to receive 97% of the vote.

Proposition 40: traders expect the billionaire tax to fail

The wealth tax offers the opposite market verdict.

Proposition 40 is at 21% to pass, down from the 27% Kalshi snapshot in DeFi Rate’s October coverage. DeFi Rate’s current odds tracker also records a four-point decline over the past week.

The measure would impose a one-time tax of up to 5% on covered assets above $1 billion for taxpayers who were California residents on January 1, 2026. Covered assets include businesses, securities, art and intellectual property; real property and certain retirement assets are excluded.

Most revenue would support public health care, with the remainder directed toward education, food assistance and administration. The state’s fiscal analysis estimates a temporary increase of tens of billions of dollars, while warning that behavioral changes could reduce ongoing income-tax revenue.

Polling support has not convinced traders

Earlier surveys gave supporters reasons to be optimistic.

A September PPIC poll found 52% supporting the measure and 46% opposing it. A separate Politico survey put support at 46% and opposition at 40%, a lead, but below an outright majority. Politico’s earlier survey showed a much wider advantage, suggesting opposition was gaining ground.

The campaign has also split prominent Democrats. The California Democratic Party endorsed Proposition 40, while Newsom opposes it. Supporters argue that a one-time levy would fund essential services; opponents raise questions about asset valuation, taxpayer departures and future state revenue.

Another wrinkle is whether Proposition 40 wins a majority. According to the official voter guide summarized in DeFi Rate’s wealth-tax tracker, competing Propositions 41 or 42 could prevent it from taking effect if either passes and receives more affirmative votes. Passage and implementation are therefore not necessarily the same outcome.

That matters especially for traders: the contract’s precise question and resolution rules matter, not simply whether headlines say California approved a wealth tax.

What to watch tonight

California polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific, but a close contest may not produce a winner tonight. Los Angeles County will continue counting mail and other ballots after Election Day.

The three markets deserve different expectations:

• Los Angeles mayor is competitive. Bass has recovered, but the final major poll was tied.

• The governor market has a commanding market favorite. Becerra’s probability reflects expected victory, not a projected landslide of comparable size.

• Proposition 40 remains an underdog. Its polling history, opposition campaign and competing measures make it more complicated than a simple referendum on taxing billionaires.

The common distinction is probability. Bass can lose at 58%, Becerra will win with far less than 97% of the vote, and a 21% ballot measure can still pass. Today’s prices describe what traders expect before the count, not what California voters have already decided.