Election Day Prediction Market Guide: Democrats Favored, but Senate Races Remain Unsettled

The 2026 Midterm Elections have arrived, and prediction market traders are backing a Democratic takeover of Congress.

Kalshi gives Democrats a 78% chance of winning the Senate and a 94% chance of winning the House, as of 8 a.m. ET Tuesday. Its Senate dashboard points toward 53 Democratic seats.

Those are expectations, not results. As DeFi Rate explained in our guide to what election probabilities actually measure, a 70% favorite is not expected to win 70% of the vote, and can still lose. Market prices are neither official election calls nor a substitute for counting ballots.

Follow DeFi Rate’s 2026 midterm election odds page for comparisons across Kalshi and Polymarket as the day develops. The figures below are a fixed morning snapshot, not live prices.

The congressional picture

The Senate is the less certain chamber. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to overturn the Republican majority, making their defenses in Michigan, Minnesota and Georgia important alongside opportunities in Republican-held states.

Kalshi’s 53-seat Democratic picture would represent more than a bare majority. But individual state probabilities cannot simply be added together to calculate the chance of control: turnout patterns and polling errors can affect multiple races in the same direction.

Alaska: Democrats at 70%

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, giving Democrats a pickup opportunity in Alaska, a state that typically backs Republicans for president.

A final New York Times/Siena survey put Peltola ahead 48% to 46%, a much narrower separation than the market’s clear Democratic preference might suggest.

Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, so the first-choice count may not settle the contest. Traders should distinguish an early lead from a completed result.

Georgia: Democrats at 97%

Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Republican Rep. Mike Collins in a race that began as an important GOP pickup opportunity but enters Election Day with traders heavily favoring the incumbent.

An October Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll put Ossoff ahead approximately 48% to 40%, with nearly 12% undecided. The current market probability expresses much greater confidence in the outcome than that polling margin alone establishes.

Iowa: Democrats at 53%

Iowa is the closest race in this guide. Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek faces Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson for the seat being vacated by Sen. Joni Ernst.

The final Times/Siena survey put Turek at 48% and Hinson at 47%.

Kalshi’s 53% Democratic probability is effectively a slight preference in a contest that could go either way, not a strong call for a Democratic flip.

Kansas: Democrats at 63%

Democrat Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor, is challenging Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in one of the cycle’s unexpected battlegrounds. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century.

A final Times/Siena poll showed Hamilton leading 49% to 44%. The market now favors a Democratic pickup, but at 63%, it still assigns a substantial chance to Marshall holding the seat.

Maine: Democrats at 73%

Democrat Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president and logger, is trying to defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Collins is emphasizing her seniority and ability to deliver for Maine, while Jackson has focused on the cost of living and her relationship with Trump.

Collins has repeatedly survived Democratic efforts to unseat her. The market now favors Jackson, making Maine a central part of the Democratic path rather than a seat the party can assume it has already won.

Michigan: Democrats at 80%

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers for retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ seat. Unlike several other contests in this guide, Michigan is a Democratic defense, not a pickup opportunity.

Rogers narrowly lost Michigan’s other Senate race to Elissa Slotkin in 2024. El-Sayed enters Election Day with a stronger market position than in DeFi Rate’s Oct. 22 update, when Kalshi put him at 69%, but recent polling has still shown a competitive race.

Minnesota: Democrats at 91%

Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan faces former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, the Republican nominee, for the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Tina Smith.

The market strongly favors a Democratic hold. But a final AtlasIntel survey showed Flanagan ahead by only 2.4 points, illustrating why a high win probability should not be confused with an expected landslide.

North Carolina: Democrats at 97%

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley for the open seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Cooper’s statewide electoral experience has made this a leading Democratic pickup opportunity.

Recent polling has reinforced that position. AtlasIntel’s final survey put Cooper ahead 56.4% to 41.5%. Kalshi’s 97% probability makes North Carolina one of the strongest Democratic positions in this guide, though the result still depends on ballots cast and counted.

Ohio: Democrats at 72%

Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Sen. Jon Husted, giving Democrats a chance to reclaim a Senate seat in a state that has moved toward Republicans in recent presidential elections.

Brown’s contest is also running alongside the competitive governor’s race between Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy. Republicans have deployed Trump and Vice President JD Vance to support the statewide ticket, while traders continue to favor Brown in the Senate race.

Texas: Democrats at 74%

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico faces Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in one of the most-watched potential flips. Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff.

Trump made repeated campaign trips to Texas to support Paxton, including a final-week visit. A Democratic win would break a 32-year Republican streak in statewide elections, one reason the market’s strong Talarico preference is notable, but not a completed political realignment before the result.

What to watch as results arrive

The market’s favorite is not the eventual winner, and an election-night price swing is not evidence that ballots changed.

Early returns can reflect which counties report first and which ballot types have been counted. Prices may react quickly to those partial results, sometimes before the full picture is clear. A movement from 80% to 40% means traders changed their expectations; it does not, by itself, establish that anything improper happened.

Contract settlement is separate again. Kalshi’s election contracts have written resolution rules, and a television network calling a chamber does not necessarily settle a seat-count contract that measures membership later.

Use the markets as one window into expectations throughout the day. Use verified results and the rules of the specific contract to understand what has actually been decided.