Who Will Leave Trump Administration Next?Markwayne Mullin is the likeliest, at 39%
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Polymarket traders give Markwayne Mullin the highest chance, 39%, ahead of Kristi Noem at 32%. More than one outcome can resolve Yes. Over the past week on Kalshi, Steve Witkoff gained the most, 5 points to 23%, and Bill Pulte lost 1 point, to 19%.
About 2 in 5
Polymarket 39%, quote from Oct 5, 8:37 PM ET.
Last trades. Polymarket's quote is stale (observed Oct 5, 8:37 PM ET) and may have moved.
About 1 in 3
Polymarket 32%, quote from Oct 5, 8:37 PM ET.
Last trades. Polymarket's quote is stale (observed Oct 5, 8:37 PM ET) and may have moved.
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
Kalshi: $3K (55%) · Polymarket: $3K (45%)
Kalshi: Dec 30, 2026 · Polymarket: Dec 31, 2026
Prices to buy each outcome, or the last trade where no one is selling. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Polymarket.
| Outcome | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markwayne Mullin | 39% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket12¢ | ||
| Kristi Noem | 32% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket18.7¢ | ||
| Dan Scavino | 30% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket5.4¢ | ||
| David Sacks | 24% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket14.9¢ | ||
| Pete Hegseth | 24% | Kalshi25¢ | Polymarket25¢ | ||
| Doug Collins | 23% | Kalshi25¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Steve Witkoff | 23% | Kalshi25¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Karoline Leavitt | 20% | KalshiSettled | Polymarket99.9¢ | ||
| Susie Wiles | 20% | Kalshi20¢ | Polymarket12¢ | ||
| Bill Pulte | 19% | Kalshi21¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Howard Lutnick | 18% | Kalshi19¢ | Polymarket14¢ | ||
| Kelly Loeffler | 18% | Kalshi18¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Brooke Rollins | 17% | Kalshi19¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Kash Patel | 17% | Kalshi17¢ | Polymarket17¢ | ||
| Tom Homan | 16% | Kalshi16¢ | Polymarket10¢ | ||
| Chris Wright | 15% | Kalshi17¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Linda McMahon | 15% | Kalshi15¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Mike Huckabee | 15% | Kalshi16¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Stephen Miller | 14% | Kalshi17¢Lowest ask | Polymarket18¢ | ||
| Brendan Carr | 14% | Kalshi16¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Peter Navarro | 14% | Kalshi15¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Russell Vought | 14% | Kalshi14¢ | Polymarket10¢ | ||
| Steven Cheung | 14% | Kalshi14¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| John Ratcliffe | 13% | Kalshi14¢ | Polymarket14¢ | ||
| Sean Duffy | 13% | Kalshi14¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Doug Burgum | 13% | Kalshi13¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Rodney Scott | 12% | Kalshi15¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Scott Turner | 12% | Kalshi13¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 12% | Kalshi13¢ | Polymarket11¢ | ||
| Mehmet Oz | 11% | Kalshi13¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Lee Zeldin | 9.6% | Kalshi10¢ | Polymarket16¢ | ||
| Jamieson Greer | 9.1% | Kalshi10¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Scott Bessent | 7.8% | Kalshi10¢ | Polymarket7¢Lowest ask | ||
| Amy Gleason | 7% | Kalshi7.9¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Marco Rubio | 6.7% | Kalshi7.8¢Lowest ask | Polymarket8¢ | ||
| Todd Blanche Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Tulsi Gabbard Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | PolymarketClosed | ||
| Dan Bongino Closed | – | KalshiNot listed | PolymarketClosed | ||
| Pam Bondi Closed | – | KalshiNot listed | PolymarketClosed | ||
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer Closed | – | KalshiNot listed | PolymarketClosed | ||
Kalshi: Open · 3 of 33 settledPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Aug 12, 1:37 PM ET and Oct 5, 11:09 PM ET.
The widest gap is on Stephen Miller: Kalshi 16% and Polymarket 13%. Our figure is their average.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Steve Witkoff gained the most, 5 points to 23%, and Bill Pulte lost 1 point, to 19%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Aug 5 to Oct 5 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 5, 11:05 PM ET).
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