Who Will Leave Trump Administration Next?Markwayne Mullin is the likeliest, at 36%
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Polymarket traders give Markwayne Mullin the highest chance, 36%, ahead of Dan Scavino at 30%. More than one outcome can resolve Yes. Over the past week on Kalshi, Doug Collins, Bill Pulte and Kelly Loeffler gained the most, 1 point each, and Pete Hegseth lost 1 point, to 25%.
About 1 in 3
Polymarket 36%.
Last trades. Polymarket's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 9:32 AM ET) and may have moved.
About 1 in 3
Polymarket 30%.
Last trades. Polymarket's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 9:32 AM ET) and may have moved.
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
Kalshi: $3K (77%) · Polymarket: $961 (23%)
Kalshi: Dec 30, 2026 · Polymarket: Dec 31, 2026
Prices to buy each outcome, or the last trade where no one is selling. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Polymarket.
| Outcome | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markwayne Mullin | 36% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket12¢ | ||
| Dan Scavino | 30% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket5.4¢ | ||
| Kristi Noem | 29% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket18.7¢ | ||
| Pete Hegseth | 26% | Kalshi26¢ | Polymarket22¢ | ||
| Doug Collins | 21% | Kalshi23¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Karoline Leavitt | 20% | KalshiSettled | Polymarket99.9¢ | ||
| Bill Pulte | 19% | Kalshi20¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Kelly Loeffler | 18% | Kalshi18¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Steve Witkoff | 18% | Kalshi18¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Kash Patel | 17% | Kalshi16¢ | Polymarket18¢ | ||
| Susie Wiles | 17% | Kalshi20¢ | Polymarket13¢ | ||
| Tom Homan | 17% | Kalshi16¢ | Polymarket10¢ | ||
| Brooke Rollins | 17% | Kalshi19¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 15% | Kalshi17¢ | Polymarket13¢ | ||
| Brendan Carr | 15% | Kalshi18¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Howard Lutnick | 15% | Kalshi16¢ | Polymarket22¢ | ||
| Linda McMahon | 15% | Kalshi16¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Russell Vought | 15% | Kalshi14¢ | Polymarket10¢ | ||
| Mike Huckabee | 15% | Kalshi16¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Peter Navarro | 14% | Kalshi15¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Stephen Miller | 14% | Kalshi17¢ | Polymarket11¢ | ||
| Steven Cheung | 14% | Kalshi14¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Sean Duffy | 13% | Kalshi14¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| David Sacks | 13% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket14.9¢ | ||
| Scott Turner | 13% | Kalshi14¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Chris Wright | 12% | Kalshi15¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Rodney Scott | 12% | Kalshi15¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Doug Burgum | 12% | Kalshi13¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| John Ratcliffe | 11% | Kalshi14¢ | Polymarket14¢ | ||
| Lee Zeldin | 11% | Kalshi11¢ | Polymarket15¢ | ||
| Mehmet Oz | 11% | Kalshi11¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Jamieson Greer | 9.4% | Kalshi11¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Scott Bessent | 7.5% | Kalshi11¢ | Polymarket6¢ | ||
| Amy Gleason | 7% | Kalshi7.9¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Marco Rubio | 6.3% | Kalshi9.1¢ | Polymarket5¢ | ||
| Todd Blanche Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Tulsi Gabbard Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | PolymarketClosed | ||
| Dan Bongino Closed | – | KalshiNot listed | PolymarketClosed | ||
| Pam Bondi Closed | – | KalshiNot listed | PolymarketClosed | ||
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer Closed | – | KalshiNot listed | PolymarketClosed | ||
Kalshi: Open · 3 of 33 settledPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Aug 12, 1:37 PM ET and Oct 4, 10:00 AM ET.
The widest gap is on Susie Wiles: Kalshi 20% and Polymarket 15%. Our figure is their average.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Doug Collins, Bill Pulte and Kelly Loeffler gained the most, 1 point each, and Pete Hegseth lost 1 point, to 25%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Aug 3 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 4, 9:54 AM ET).
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